Obama Chief Strategist Writing Off West Virginia and Michigan in November?

Well, He Still Has 55 States Left

By Dan McLaughlin Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | David Axelrod | Michigan | Obamafiles | West Virginia — Comments (11) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

With Barack Obama expecting to get crushed in West Virginia today and having engaged in his protracted battle to keep Michigan's delegates from being seated at the convention, his chief strategist, David Axelrod - who not so long ago suggested that Obama would be planning to do without white working-class voters on the theory that they are Republicans anyway - seems to be implicitly conceding on MSNBC this morning that those two states are not part of Obama's plans for the fall election:

MSNBC 5/13/2008 8:37:10 AM ET:

AXELROD: There are a lot of states that are going to be pivotal in the general election...

QUESTION: But the big ones seems to me is West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Florida. That’s probably going to decide it, is it not? Those states?

AXELROD: I think we are going to do well in Pennsylvania. We’re going to do well in Ohio. I think we’re going to be competitive in Florida, as well.

I guess Obama's down to 55 states, now. And really, I wouldn't advise him to get too confident about Florida, either. Then again, maybe it's just time for him to blame another advisor.

The headline might as well be Obama concedes to McCain by Illinicon

Because if he is writing off MI and WV and has no chance in FL, he is leaving himself with no margin for air. I ran a simulation giving McCain MI and WV and conceding IA and MO to Obama. He would have to split in CO, NH, NM, NV, OH, and PA. Looking at this map it becomes clear McCain needs to pick Carceri or Huntsman as VP to try to lock down PA and NH (Carceri) or NM and NV (Huntsman) and then Obama would need to win 3 out of 4.

McCain '08

Reply To This — User Info — #1

the err in your simulation by theoneandonlyfinn

is giving Missouri to Obama, when Obama hasnt carried it in a single poll since the primary season kickoff in january.
McCain has been leading here solidly by 8-10 pts.

with McCain already @ 240 and the dems @ 200, the mathematical odds favor mccain...particularly when polling data out of OH and NH have bumped that up to 264 safe... hold nevada& new mexico, or colorado, or iowa, or flip michigan, pa, or wisconsin... mccain wins.

Reply To This — User Info — #4

I feel that Obama will get a record turnout of African-Americans by Illinicon

in St. Louis and Kansas City and he will do better demographically in areas he typically struggles with due to being a border state Senator, like he did in Indiana.

McCain '08

Reply To This — User Info — #5

I highly doubt Obama takes Missouri. by St. Louis Conservative

Blacks already turn out in high numbers for presidential elections, especially in corrupt political machines like there are in St. Louis City and Kansas City. There aren't enough blacks in the state for Obama to turnout in order to offset his likely big losses in the rural areas.

Obama was elected in Illinois because of Chicago. Chicago and the rest of Illinois might as well be different countries, and there is a lot of political tension between the two areas. Missouri has much more in common with downstate Illinois than it does Chicago.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Reply To This — User Info — #6

Obama won all but a few small counties by Illinicon

in Southern Illnois when he won his senate seat so his win was pretty much state wide, but that says more about Keyes than it says about him.

McCain '08

Reply To This — User Info — #7

Obama basically ran unopposed... by St. Louis Conservative

...for his senate seat. Alan Keyes was not a credible challenger. He was only thrown in there after Jack Ryan imploded.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Reply To This — User Info — #8

It seems that they are not using the correct rulebook by PhxG

When we review the convoluted democrat primary rules which I am sure Obama's campaign has intimate knowledge I believe they are not objectively accepting the winner takes all delegates of a general election.

"Doing well" is moot if you lose, and I believe that most states will reflect the WV attitudes of mistrust towards Obama. This of course will be painted as racism; WP, RJ

_____________________________

It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.
--Aristotle

Reply To This — User Info — #9

I dont see too many states by dmort

I dont see too many states as a lock for Obama.Obama will do well with his base and nutroots but thats not a majority in any state.Bob Barr could draw most of the conservative voters leaving Mccain with moderates and independents.McCain's position on climate change,no oil drilling anywhere and immigration reform isnt going to cut it.We will see $9 a gallon gas before we see $3 with either Hillary or Obama or McCain.

Reply To This — User Info — #10

Bob Barr is a non-factor. by St. Louis Conservative

He hasn't shown the ability to raise significant amounts of money as Dr. Paul has. He generally takes an open-borders position on immigration (at least he has in the past, he may be *cough* revising *cough* that position now). I don't what his position on energy is. I don't see Barr exciting a whole lot of people - he's not near as strong a candidate as Ron Paul would have been.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Reply To This — User Info — #11

Redstate