Obamomentum - End-of-the-Primaries Edition
It's Like Popularity, But With Fewer People
By Dan McLaughlin Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton | The Best Democratic Primary EVER — Comments (15) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Now that the Democratic primaries are finally over, let's take one last look at the charts I have been running for some time now (see here, here and here) of the Democratic presidential primary popular vote totals for the months of March, April, May and now June. (Source: RCP, except I used CNN's updated figures for Montana) - "margin," of course, is Obama's margin of victory/defeat in each primary:
| State | Date | Obama | Clinton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota | 6/3 | 43,726 | 54,179 | -10,453 |
| Montana | 6/3 | 102,373 | 74,792 | +27,581 |
| Puerto Rico | 6/1 | 121,458 | 263,120 | -141,662 |
| Kentucky | 5/20 | 209,903 | 459,210 | -249,307 |
| Oregon | 5/20 | 372,072 | 258,066 | +114,006 |
| West Virginia | 5/13 | 91,652 | 239,062 | -147,410 |
| Indiana | 5/6 | 632,035 | 646,233 | -14,198 |
| North Carolina | 5/6 | 887,391 | 657,669 | +229,722 |
| Guam | 5/3 | 2,264 | 2,257 | +7 |
| Pennsylvania | 4/22 | 1,046,822 | 1,260,937 | -214,115 |
| Mississippi | 3/11 | 265,502 | 159,221 | +106,281 |
| Wyoming | 3/8 | 5,378 | 3,311 | +2,067 |
| Texas | 3/4 | 1,362,476 | 1,462,734 | -100,258 |
| Ohio | 3/4 | 1,055,769 | 1,259,620 | -203,851 |
| Rhode Island | 3/4 | 75,316 | 108,949 | -33,633 |
| Vermont | 3/4 | 91,901 | 59,806 | +32,095 |
| Total | 6,366,038 | 6,969,166 | -603,128 | |
| Overall% | 47.74% | 52.26% |
In other words, Obama ends the last 3 months of the primary season more than 600,000 votes in the hole, losing the popular vote decisively to Hillary over a stretch of 16 primaries in which 13 million votes were cast. In percentage terms, Hillary's 4.52% margin of victory for that period is larger than the general election margins of Bush over Kerry in 2004, Carter over Ford in 1976, Nixon over Humphery in 1968, Truman over Dewey in 1948, and just a point smaller than that of Clinton over Bush in 1992. He lost six different primaries by margins of 100,000 or more votes. All this during the time period when he should have been sealing the deal with Democratic voters after having taken what looked at the time like a decisive, momentum-tipping lead in mid-February. The final insult was losing South Dakota, a state he was widely projected to win and in which he led decisively in the few polls taken until the last day or two before the election, and which cast its ballots while the vultures were visibly circling Hillary's campaign.*
Read On...
It's Obama's weakness in that period even within his own party that has to be troubling to Democrats pondering his chances in November. Recall that Obama faced virtually no serious scrutiny until he pulled within 20 points of Hillary in the national popular vote in mid-December in the immediate aftermath of Oprah's campaign appearances on his behalf (he didn't pull within single digits until after he won Iowa); it was only after he was christened the clear frontrunner that he started to take serious fire, beginning in late February and early March with Hillary's "3 a.m." ad, the Goolsbee/NAFTA flap, and of course the Rev. Wright story, and continuing with the accumulation his radical left-wing associations, his endless stream of verbal flubs, and his ever-growing list of friends, mentors and staffers cast under the bus. Jay Cost has a great series of posts (start here) on the demographic breakdown of how and where Hillary beat Obama; consider this, among his many charts, looking at the states Bush won in 2004 that the Democrats would have some hope (and, obviously, need) to pick off in 2008:
That there is not much of a winning coalition in most parts of this country.
Let's also wrap up my look at turnout, using the same baseline as before (the number of votes in 2006 for House Democrats in the state) - this time, I'll just run the chart just for the same time period (the full chart and explanation of sources is here), but leaving out Puerto Rico, where I used a different and ultimately inaccurate baseline to capture the relatively disappointing turnout:
| State | 2006 House D Vote | Date | Votes* | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX | 1,890,869 | 3/4 | 2,825,210 | 149% |
| OH | 2,081,737 | 3/4 | 2,315,389 | 111% |
| VT | 139,815 | 3/4 | 151,707 | 109% |
| RI | 265,028 | 3/4 | 184,265 | 70% |
| WY | 92,324 | 3/8 | 8,689 | 9% |
| MS | 260,330 | 3/11 | 424,723 | 163% |
| PA | 2,229,091 | 4/22 | 2,307,759 | 104% |
| IN | 812,496 | 5/6 | 1,278,268 | 157% |
| NC | 1,026,915 | 5/6 | 1,545,060 | 150% |
| WV | 263,822 | 5/13 | 330,714 | 125% |
| KY | 601,723 | 5/20 | 669,113 | 111% |
| OR | 765,853 | 5/20 | 630,138 | 82% |
| MT | 158,916 | 6/3 | 177,165 | 111% |
| SD | 230,468 | 6/3 | 97,905 | 42% |
Turnout started to tail off after the early May primaries. In general, through the primaries and caucuses (especially caucuses), Obama tended to do better in the lower turnout states, but we see here that at the very end, he did better in Montana, which had fairly robust turnout, than in South Dakota, where even adjusting for the fact that Stephanie Herseth's 2006 victory may set an unrealistically high bar for turnout, the turnout was quite low.
* - A tip of the cap to Conservative South Dakota blogger Ken Blanchard, who argued that the polls in his state were too optimistic for Obama and that Hillary would win.
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Obamomentum - End-of-the-Primaries Edition 15 Comments (0 topical, 15 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
decide what or which combination of factors caused Obama's decline in the second half of the two-act play. If McCain can determine what caused Obama's pathetic finish, he could exploit it and win in a blow out. The bottom line is that Obama secured the nomination only because super-delegates handed it to him despite an abysmal 10 weeks, as you have pointed out. The real question is why the last 10 weeks went south so rapidly.
The Reverend Wright videos first surfaced in March. Obama tried to defuse the controversy with his now-famous speech on race, but not everybody was buying. And then, of course, Reverend Wright himself came forward in late April to speak on his own behalf before the national media--and that caused Obama to throw him under the bus. Prior to March, Obama had gotten a virtual free pass from an adoring media.
The challenge for McCain is how to keep that controversy alive (so the public doesn't lose interest), while still not making it appear like a totally racist attack.
What I would do, is put Wright's words in the context of the things said and done by Obama's advisers (many of whom are white). I would call attention to such Obama advisers as Sarah Sewall, Robert Malley, etc., to paint Obama as someone who associates primarily with the hard left. I would make the point that Obama's spiritual mentor for 20 years doesn't have a lot of good things to say about Israel, and neither do any of his advisers. Gee, what a coincidence.
Finally, I would paint Obama as an opportunist: If he can cavalierly toss his church--his church--of twenty years under the bus whenever it's politically expedient, who else and what else would he toss under that bus if expediency demanded it? Israel? What would Obama go the distance to defend against all comers? Where does Obama ever draw a line in the sand? Anywhere?
and you could be on the money. But my guess is that it was much more complex given the magnitude of the subsequent losses. Wright may have alerted a slumbering electorate to the fact that voters knew precious little about Obama other than he was a good orator, heavy on rhetoric and light on substance. His tawdry associations, Wright among them, drove home the point that little had been reported on Obama the person.
In addition, we learned from Wright that Obama responded poorly yet predictably when confronted with controversy. Obama gave a lecture rather than an apology in his now-discredited "race speech." As you pointed out, that homily unraveled in rather short order. This may indicate a poorly run campaign or a poor candidate when off message.
Let us assume, then, it was Wright in the sense that began the closer scrutiny of Obama and the subsequent meltdown of his campaign when put under pressure. The media and its Democratic allies will do little or nothing to highlight Obama's left-wing associations and radical viewpoints. The question is whether McCain will. The media and its Democratic allies, whether in a debate format or coverage, will do little or nothing to see how Obama responds to tough questions of any nature. The question, again, is whether McCain will fill the void.
Another factor may be Clinton ran a better campaign in the last few months.
Again, it may not have been Wright at all or in and of itself, so it would be nice to hear other possible explanations. What Crank has documented is that the Obama campaign fell apart halfway through the primary process, and it would be nice to know why.
a cliff or contact my doctor for Prozac, you put it all into perspective for me. And you do it so well.
So much for Obamomentum.
I'm sure he'll get a bump now, but I doubt he will be able to run out the clock on Johnny Mac the way he did Hillary. More people are going to be paying attention this go round.
5 stars!!!
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Just a typical, small town, British-American girl...
Now based on the RCP Map they have Obama beatign McCain 272 to 266. But look at one of Obama's Huge losses, Penn. That state alone can swing this Election. Then add Ohio and you have a nice McCain win. McCain, and most likely the 527s, need to hit Barack hard in states where the swing election is close.
McCain has a Solid 96 to Obamas 60, Obama has more leaning states, but they are huge states. If one tilts out of his grasp it could end him, while besides TX and FL McCain's leanings are mostly 5-10 vote states.
sweepstakes for Obama! :>)
Obama-you walked into the
party like you were
walking onto a yacht!

"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
Plus, not that states will always vote the same.
Wisconsin was a .4% win for Kerry and now 2% for McCain, Iowa was a Bush state that McCain is losing, and even somehow NJ is moving to the right (Kerry won with 6.7% with no Gov being voted on, Repubs in Jersey come out in force for big seats and we have a Senate battle to toss out a 91 year old)
All these states would be better for McCain if he showed a little more respect to the party's base.
Those are states where you have to reach well beyond the GOP base to win.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
With around 9 Mil people in NJ now and only 3.5M voting in 2004 theres a good shot the people not voting are deeper republicans who felt the idea of voting in NJ is useless and better to just stay home (we also have a large number of people who will waste a vote on Nader if he gives it another go) If Dick Zimmer can run a good race he'll help pull people from the woodwork and maybe pull some jewish votes over to McCain.
You're right, McCain must reach out to his party's base. But how? Even picking a conservative as running mate won't mollify them.
McCain can't flip-flop on major issues just to mollify the base. That destroys his main appeal as a straight shooter and as someone who stands his ground.
McCain is already pro-life, pro-Israel, against earmarks and pork, and for winning in Iraq. If that's not enough for the base, then what is?
What does the base want McCain to do? Start talking like Tancredo and drive all the Hispanic voters into Obama's camp?
I honestly don't know what would satisfy the base except to turn McCain into somebody he's not--a Tancredo clone or a Bush clone.
In the States where this can help him win lets hope he pushes these issues as oppose to the immigration route, he may want to show he is both left and right, but he needs to pick where he is stronger and where right will help him more.
I'm sure he has the smartest minds behind him, sure he droped Karl but no doubt he's helping someone get McCain in, but will McCain shoot off topic and seem too middle of the road for some.
With McCain, Obama, and Nader we had it good, but now Barr will surely equal what Nader has.
Beyond his losing streak, Obama has a lot more to work on now that Hillary is out of the race...
http://www.greenfaucet.com/hanlons-pub/aipac-speech-highlights-a-big-oba...
Will he be able to pick up her supporters or are the two groups too divided to become a unified Democratic party.
This drawn out primary race may have been the biggest mistake the Democrats have made in a long time, considering that before recently the Democratic nominee (whoever it may be) was considered to be a shoe in.

I guess I never thought I'd feel sorry for Queen Hillary the Socialist, but I guess she is learning that, to the DNC, racism trumps sexism.
Don't worry though, if Obama loses, the media will be sure to blame Rush Limbaugh rather than admitting that, for the whole time, they were in the bag for the black marxist.
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Dependence is Slavery.