On the ground in Pennsylvania
By Erick Posted in 2008 — Comments (37) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
From what I'm hearing, and this is based on large scale anecdotal evidence and a few attempts at objective reporting by folks on the ground in Pennsylvania, Hillary should have enough of a win today to keep her in the race.
The Obama ground game in Philly is not doing what some were hoping it seems. Morning drive-time voters were skewed to Hillary, though that was not unexpected. As Jim notes, Obama has already fled the state to Indiana.
The key, of course, is Hillary's voters are going to have to keep turning out today at high rates and not just accept that she's going to win. She needs a high margin of victory to stay in the race.
And Operation Chaos continues as planned.
[UPDATE:] Real Clear Politics notes this post about the turnout in Philly, which is probably going to be record breaking, but also split pretty evenly between Hillary and Obama, which hurts Obama.
« Dueling June Obama fundraising claims? — Comments (2) | And Senator Obama breathes a sigh of relief. — Comments (11) »
On the ground in Pennsylvania 37 Comments (0 topical, 37 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
like a series of events involving dead people unearthing themselves just to vote for hope and change.
"I believe we must adjourn this meeting to some other place." - The last recorded words of Adam Smith.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
Kill the terrorists
Protect the borders
Punch the hippies -- Frank J
A friend of mine who works in elections law says Obama's strategy is to sue to keep polls open whenever he can, regardless of any real reason. Futhermore, she believes he'll try that in the general too.
"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas
Are you frikken kidding me! Do we have to issues these lamoes padded insoles or they won't stay around? DO NOT tell me things like that when I'm eating microwaved leftovers!!!
"I believe we must adjourn this meeting to some other place." - The last recorded words of Adam Smith.
all the lawyers were headed to Texas.
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion
do with their Bibles and rifles when they go vote?
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
I'm guessing they try to bring them into the voting booth. They hold on to them to the BITTER end!
HAHAHAHAHA!
: UGGGGGG :
Sorry, I apologize in advance.
"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas
I thought maybe they'd have some sort of valet service for yall
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
Obama needs huge margins in Philly and Pittsburgh to offset the fact that Hillary is absolutely pounding Obama in the rural areas. Hillary, however, got extremely lucky in Penn in that she has the endorsements (and therefore access to the political machines) of Fast Eddie Rendell and Philly Mayor Michael Nutter. She also has over 100 mayors across the state supporting her.
I've always thought that the endorsements of governors and mayors (especially big city mayors) are FAR more important than those of senators, like Bob Casey. Typically, governors and mayors have political machines and apparatuses at their disposal that can really drive turnout and GOTV for their candidates. Mayor Antonio Villagarosa in LA gave Hillary a huge edge in Los Angeles and was a big reason she won California handily.
Back to the original point - Hillary will overperform in the Obama strongholds of Pitt and Philly. She has Fast Eddie's and Mayor Nutter's machine, and she is passing around campaign cash in the precincts and wards. Obama will still win those cities, but the margin will be held down, and Hillary will handily win the state by running up huge margins in the rural areas.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Has the second highest percentage of senior citizens after Florida.
http://www.seniorjournal.com/NEWS/SeniorStats/5-05-31StatesWithSeniors.h...
After women, Seniors have been Hillary's most reliable demographic. She will ride the support of women and seniors to crush Obama- I see a 60%/40% (or higher) vote spread for her.
Start bracing yourselves for the nails-on-chalkboard screech of her victory speech later tonight.
but only tonight!
Now that she's found a successful image makeover, I'm hoping she'll down a boilermaker in celebration for the cameras tonight.
I can just picture President Bush watching that on TV, saying to Laura "You know, honey, that's how I started drinking."
My guess is Hillary 52, Obama 41.
---
Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
And the Obama folks will crow that she didn't get 15 and the Hillary folks will point out that Hillary wins in battleground states and Obama wins in places like Wyoming and Texas.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
What the Hillary people can point out is that Obama, even this late in the campaign, has still not broken out beyond his base. He's still mostly the candidate of college professors and college students, Hollywood, and the leftist "netroots" like DailyKOS and Moveon.org.
Obama is still NOT the candidate of blue-collar workers, farmers, Jews, seniors, etc.
In short, Obama has the exact same constituency that McGovern had.
BTW, I'm not even sure Obama is the candidate of all students either. He's certainly got the politically aware students in liberal-arts programs. But I wonder how engineering students or students in community colleges, who are heading for hands-on careers, feel about him.
When I studied engineering in college in the early 1970s, I did not see a lot of enthusiasm for McGovern among my fellow students. Perhaps because they feared that McGovern's call for major cuts in defense spending would result in fewer engineering employment opportunities.
It's a question of whether Hillary is toast.
A field goal will not win the game for hillary but a touchdown with a 2-point conversion will tie the game.
If she can get the touchdown and the 2-point conversion, the game will not be over but it will continue.
But if she doesn't...
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
So right now Obama is winning, but has a two point lead with a full quarter left to play. A field goal keeps Hillary in the game as she continues to try to prove her point that Obama can't win the middle class he disparaged in San Francisco. If she gets the field goal and the two point conversion she puts significant pressure on Obama, but if he stays cool and returns with a TD and field goal it's all tied up and they go to OT. What happens in OT is anybody's guess because the superdelegates are scared of the Clinton smear machine and scared of the backlash if they offend the black special pleaders. And they are in a real conundrum because even if the do appease the black special pleaders, they will offend the NOW types. So no matter how you cut this, they have to do the one thing no politician ever willingly does: offend a core voting block.
Please only use football analogies if you understand the game of football...
61%-39%. Obama will not even crack the 40% mark.
I hope it pans out that way.
Hillary 57 - Barack 43
"I believe we must adjourn this meeting to some other place." - The last recorded words of Adam Smith.
Visually, there seems to be a lack of enthusiasm in my area (Bucks county) although things are so tense between Obama & Hillary supporters, it could just be fear to openly express your preference. The frustration among Democrats with their party is real, I can attest. Obama signs outnumber Hillary's, although her signs have been popping up more in the last few days. As far as the Democrats I know, I would say they lean toward Hillary. My area is home to outrageous property taxes, NJ commuters, Soccer Moms & SUVs.
I think at the end of the day we want to face a jacked up Obama instead of a resurgent Hillary. It may not matter- but I think we win Florida easily against Obama and probably PA/OH/MN against him. so we may want to have Hillary win by barely enough to keep her in it until the convention but not enough to overtake him in the lead. like a 10-11% win today. hopefully she then routs him in IN and KY and WV while he wins NC and MT and then Hillary wins Puerto Rico by just enough to still trail him in overall votes.
then it comes down to seating MI and FL!!! :)
"Small town folks get bitter after which they cling to guns or religion, or antipathy to people who aren't like them, or anti-immigrant sentiment, or anti-trade sentiment."
I agree; I don't want us facing a resurging Hillary, that's not going to have a good outcome for us. As much as I dislike her and her husband, she's tough as nails and you cannot ever count her out. I will give you just one analogy - Boston Red Sox, and I'm a Yankee fan. The Sox have that never say never attitude; a game is never over for them until the last out. And Hillary has the same mindset. I think McCain can beat Obama hands down, but I think he'll lose to a resurging Hillary. And for us, eight years of her on any basis should be unacceptable. I know we're relishing the two of them slugging it out, as they have been. Unfortunately, if she survives on whatever basis, she'll carry forward very little damage from the primaries and be signficantly more difficult to beat in the general.
...although I'm a bit disappointed in the *Republican* turnout in the state. When I went to vote in my district this morning, about half of whom are, or at least were, registered Republican, there had been nearly 50 democrats who had voted. I was only the third Republican. I somehow don't think *that* many of us switch registrations.
I certainly hope that's an isolated case -- I think this state has a decent chance to end up in McCain's court in November, but a really poor turnout in the primary could hurt his chances...
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
so most Republicans don't care about the primaries. The more political active ones are using this opportunity to make mischief with the Dems.
lawyers are meeting to discuss going to court because the lines in Phili are too long to wait in...... really
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised