Redstate

As you do, I think Rasmussen skews in favor of the Rs. Even if you factor in a 3-4 pt. R bias, those polls still look good for McCain.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

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I can unequivocally say I will not be running for national office in four years.

- Barack Obama, 11/04/04

But not anything I take too seriously.

Remember last summer when everyone wanted to give their McCain eulogy? We have a long way to go.

I think McCain will win for two reasons:

1) Most Americans want to see us finish the job in Iraq. Ever since Rumsfield was replaced and the strategy changed (to what McCain was preaching all along), things have improved. By the fall, I expect things to be much better over there.

2) Hillary is just killing the democratic party. This is getting ugly and promises to get uglier. If she puts a few wins together & it goes to the convention, people are going to have hurt feeling that will linger.

This election is now McCain's to lose.

BigGator5.net

is that a Republican has to win by 3-5 points to have a chance.

www.republicansenate.org

Rasmussen also had Kean comfortably ahead at this point in 06, and Bush was tied with Kerry pretty late in the game. Don't waste any money there (or in California, Oregon or Washington, for that matter). Now if Hillary is the nominee, then anything and everything is in play.

we have been looking at the red/blue map here at Redstate for a while. It does look as if McCain has nailed down the the South & mountain/plains states that a Republican can build on -- it seems to me that the Pacific states, Upper Midwest and some rust-belt states are winnable, along with one or two New England pickups. The NH poll is great, I do expect mcCain to turn that around, also Michigan is a possibility. NJ is a heartbreaker for Republicans every time, they always go back to Dems after raising our hopes...Wisconsin is also really hard for a Republican, it's like a midwest Vermont, but 2004 was close, so it's possible.