REDSTATE ROUNDTABLE #3: WARGAMING THE 08 RACE AGAINST AN UNCERTAIN OPPONENT
What McCain Should Do If The D Race Drags On
By Dan McLaughlin Posted in 2008 | Redstate Roundtable — Comments (26) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Let's spin a scenario here. You're a senior adviser to the McCain campaign. It's the morning of April 23, and Hillary Clinton has just won Pennsylvania, capping a comeback that effectively ensures that Obama can't clinch the nomination, or easily force her out of the race, just by winning primaries. You assume that the Dems will thus continue their primary battle through Puerto Rico on June 7, with no obvious mechanism for resolution. You have to formulate advice for the candidate about how to approach this unique race.
1. You need to be prepared to face both candidates - but in a world of finite resources, who do you make your top priority, and why? Should Sen. McCain and the campaign start focusing public attacks/contrasts on one of the candidates, or both, or just try to hold fire until there's a nominee on the other side?
2. When should Sen. McCain plan to announce his running mate - wait for the September GOP Convention, wait until you see who the opponent is - or try to underline GOP unity vs. Democratic chaos by announcing a ticket in, say, June?
3. Are there specific steps Sen. McCain could or should take to take advantage of the unique period when we have a nominee and the Democrats don't?
4. Should Sen. McCain resign from the Senate (his replacement would be selected by Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, a Democrat and Obama supporter, but would have to be a Republican) and call on his opponent to do the same?
Answers below the fold...
Academic Elephant: I'll bite:
1) McCain should focus on his strengths--strong on the war, tough on spending--and use them to attack both Obama and Clinton if it appears she's still in the race in two week's time. Let them continue to make rhetorical angels dance on pin heads as they try to define their differences. Lump them both together and whack away.
2) This depends on whether McCain is going to make a personal (i.e.Cheney) rather than a strategic (i.e. LBJ) pick. If he already has his heart set on someone with whom he has a close personal affinity and on whom he can rely for advice, then do it now and deploy him as a surrogate. If the campaign has decided that to hope for victory they need a strategic pick, then obviously he has to wait. It's a pity not to take advantage of the situation, but there's nothing to be done about it.
3) McCain's challenge will be to stay in the news with everyone focused on the horserace. He has a God-given opportunity in late March-April with the Petraeus testimony to showcase Iraq and his claimed role in bringing it about. He should play that for all it's worth. After that it will be harder because if Iraq continues to improve there is little chance that the successful implementation of the hydrocarbon law will get much press--or much press relevant to McCain. That will be a challenge and one they should start thinking about now. Maybe a series of serious policy speeches along the model of then-Gov Bush's Citadel speech would be a good step.
4) He should not resign. Neither Obama or Clinton will bite, no one on the fence would really expect them to and it will just make McCain look old and irrelevan--like this is his last hurrah. It was poison for Dole and it will be poison for him.
California Yankee: Senator McCain should definitely take advantage of this period where he is the presumptive Republican nominee and attack both possible Democratic nominees generically. This approach should not be difficult because there is little real difference in Hillary's and Obama's radical left wing positions. McCain should continue to pound away that Hillary and Obama were and remain wrong on the surge, earmarks, tax hikes and their socialist spending proposals. He should spend as many "primary" dollars as he can raise to brand the Democrats as Liberal/Socialists.
Senator McCain should announce a running mate as soon ass he has the delegates to guarantee the nomination AND after an exhaustive vetting.
I am wary of recommending Senator McCain should not resign. Governor Napolitano is unlikely to appoint a Republican which Conservatives find satisfactory. The Senate is too close and it is too important as a brake on the Democrat's radical left wing agenda. However, if a deal could be struck where McCain would be able to veto or select his replacement and the Democratic nominee allowed to do the same, the propaganda value would be immense.
haystack: I think, to number 1, McCain can attack early and often regardless the candidate-by attacking what either or both bring to the table of false promises to America. Tax, spend, entitle, defeat...both Dems carry that mantel and McCain serves himself up well to the not-so-sure-cons by attacking the Dem's plans from a "conservative ideals suggest better than what they have to offer" meme all the way up to their convention. I say he start yesterday and hammer away.
As to #2, so long as Huckabee insists on staying in, McCain doesn't need to announce a veep...but if he's planning on a blockbuster name, he could do it now...if only to b-slap Huckabee with that "you don't exist" approach...for entertainment if nothing else.
And I think the answer to number three is covered by a yes to number 4...
Thomas Crown: I disagree wholeheartedly with McCain resigning, and there is no one on this list who has the personal and political stake I do in seeing that happen. AE is exactly right: Out of a younger man -- even the John McCain of 2000 -- resigning would be seen as liberating yourself from whatever is holding you back from the Presidency. In an old fellow, like everyone will soon think John McCain is -- it's going to be seen as removing a weight too great to carry while campaigning for the Presidency. Think, too, of it this way: Things John McCain does and says in the Senate will basically be free advertising as the campaign goes on. Neither Hillary! nor the Obasm (I love that term, bless the diarist who coined it) are going to give up their seats, and God knows that they'll use their free mike for all it's worth.
I add that I further agree with CY and AE (said TC): You have two candidates whose only critical differences lie in how far each are willing to venture from the American mainstream to win their party's nomination. Harp on that. Pound on it. Make them prove that they're not raving socialist baby-killers. Obama especially is going to have a hard time with that. They're either going to have to hurt their primary or general chances.
Running mate, schmunning mate. No one cares.
Adam C: I pretty much entirely agree with Thomas substantively, but I'd probably use less inflammatory words. That should pretty much end this thread. :)
Thomas Crown: Or the universe.
Brad Smith: Is there not something amusing in the idea that I should provide Senator McCain with campaign advice?
Thomas Crown: If you knew me well, you'd offer to join me in a session of chewing on wrought-iron caltrops.
California Yankee: No. There is humor in the idea Senator [McCain] would give a lick about our advice.
Thomas Crown: These things are not mutually exclusive.
Brad Smith (replying to Thomas): If I knew you well, I might even know what that meant.
Thomas Crown: Irony, man. You would taste the irony.
Moe Lane: 1). This will depend on circumstances. It is in McCain's best interests to prolong the nomination battle and force both candidates to spend their war chests; let *them* dictate the parameters of the fight, and simply encourage their enthusiasts. Meanwhile, shrug off any attacks by either, encourage the media to be bored by the GOP, and start serious revenue generation.
2). We wait. Our VP slot this year should be reserved for thematic balance, not geographical.
3). Aggressive campaigning in freshman Democrat Red House districts. Make 'em scream for help from the candidates. *Some* of them will guess wrong on who to scream for.
4). Only if it's Obama - and only after the convention. Nobody will expect Clinton to do it anyway.
Dan McLaughlin: Well, getting back around to my own questions:
1 & 3. Even if Hillary wins the trifecta of TX, OH and PA, I think I would still lean more heavily on criticizing Obama (at least implicitly, as McCain is doing now with his shots at Obama's lack of experience and his lighter-than-air rhetoric), since Hillary's negatives are already cast in concrete. The advantage of having a divided opposition is threefold: McCain can shake his head in sorrow at the negativity between the two, he can attack both for problems they have in common, and/or he can throw his weight behind Hillary's attacks on Obama's inexperience and vacuity and behind Obama's critiques of the Clintons' integrity and divisiveness.
2. I agree with AE that if you think you are picking from weakness, you wait. Huckabee, for example, would be the classic from-weakness pick, as would a running mate chosen principally to counter Hillary's gender or Obama's race. I won't go further afield into how McCain should choose, but I do think that especially if he takes a strong, popular-with-the-base conservative in the Mark Sanford mold, he should try to do that early, maybe as early as May or June, to provide the vivid contrast between a unified GOP team and a squabbling opposition.
4. I've been leaning towards the idea that McCain could steal a march by quitting the Senate, since we know that neither Hillary nor Obama would be willing to go all-in in that fashion with decades ahead of them in the Senate if they lose, but I think I'm persuaded by AE's and Thomas' points on that score.
Pejman Yousefzadeh: 1. As the lovely and talented AE points out, McCain ought to emphasize his strengths and attack both Hillary and Obama--and the Democratic Party as a whole.
2. I would advise McCain to wait a little bit on the Vice Presidential pick so that press attention will be focused on his campaign as people speculate about his selection. I would not wait too long, because the longer McCain waits, the greater the likelihood of an unwanted leak. The most important thing, of course, is that McCain take all the time he needs to ensure that he has a nominee who has been fully vetted and who will make an outstanding President if called upon to serve and if asked to succeed McCain either because (a) the latter serves eight years or (b) the latter serves only four and opts to not run for re-election.
3. See (1) above. The overarching need here is for McCain to establish a positive identity for himself and a negative one for his eventual opponent before his eventual opponent does the same thing to McCain. McCain's motto has to be a paraphrase of Rommel's when he was asked in the movie Patton how he would deal with Old Blood And Guts. "I will attack and annihilate him/her. Before he/she does the same to me."
4. As the lovely and talented AE points out, resigning his Senate seat would only make McCain look old and on his way off the political scene. Neither Clinton nor Obama would follow suit and Napolitano will pick the weakest GOP replacement possible in order to increase the chances that the next time the seat is up for re-election, Democrats will be able to grab it.
Ben Domenech: 1. McCain should use this opportunity as an opening to bring his base together, building a case against both Hillary and Obama (though I'd advise he save the harder stuff for Obama - accusations of recklessness on foreign policy stuff, though, should wait til after the primary is done and they're locked in). The road tour I advocated on our previous roundtable is in order. Stumping with Don Nickles, Phil Gramm, et al. and exulting in a great coming together is the ideal, and even if it doesn't reach that point, it still has a natural climax in an "aren't we glad to finally, at long last, be rid of the Clintons?" moment where the crowd erupts.
2. I'd announce it early. No one will be mad at him if he picks Sanford or Pawlenty, and there's no sense prolonging it needlessly. Introduce early - neither of these guys has strong national name ID - and let them get their feet wet.
3. Shake his head in sorrow, as others have said. Get everything geared up for the fall. Hire a few key people from the other campaigns (this is already in the works, obviously). Be ready to come out gangbusters, and not let the opposing nominee get a rest once things are settled.
4. No. We saw how that worked out for Bob Dole - his campaign played like a farewell tour, not a debate. And frankly, McCain gives off the signals of still having the fire to stay in the Senate after this and fight an HRC or Obama presidency. I have been frankly amazed by his performance on the trail: the guy was and is more energetic as a campaigner than Fred, Rudy, Brownback, and at times even Romney. He's got no quit in him.
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REDSTATE ROUNDTABLE #3: WARGAMING THE 08 RACE AGAINST AN UNCERTAIN OPPONENT 26 Comments (0 topical, 26 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
"If I was Harry Reid, I would make the next year a series of votes on immigration, waterboarding, and global warming. If McCain loses, he can run again in 2010, a la Goldwater and Humphrey."
Good point I hadn't thought of however, I think McCain could author legislation that would unite the Party and put the Dems in a bad light and hammer them for not allowing it to be voted on...it's a sward that cuts both ways but I think it's one that must be wielded.
Vote for your preferred candidate even if they've dropped out. Don't follow the herd in the stampede!
1. Reid's natural partisan instinct will be to try to separate McCain from independents, not his base. I'm not sure Reid will be savvy enough to try to wedge McCain away from conservatives.
2. There may be things Reid's own nominee doesn't want to cast votes on, esp. wrt immigration. Goose, meet gander.
That's even before we get to the issue of the broader cohesiveness of Reid's caucus or Reid's own disconnect from Nevada voters.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
3). Aggressive campaigning in freshman Democrat Red House districts. Make 'em scream for help from the candidates. *Some* of them will guess wrong on who to scream for.
Either the frosh will run away from their candidates or run to them. Either way, the GOP could tie them to their candidates
1. Reinforce his current position with independents and emphasize his experience in positive advertisements. Do NOT attach Obama or Clinton for inexperience, except by implication.
2. In so-called "negative" advertising (e.g., telling the truth about liberals), rally conservatives and undermine Obama's support with independents by emphasizing how radically left Obama's positions are.
3. In the negative ads, focus on attacking Obama--he's likely to be the nominee, and if not, the Obamaniacs will be greatly demoralized, and their willingness to support Clinton will be somewhat diminished by the (probably false) conclusion that McCain helped get Clinton nominated--even favored her nomination. Plus, the negative advertising is much more likely to be effective against Obama, as he is still unknown. Most people already know that Cliton is a smart, talented Senator with solidly liberal positions. People still think Obama is a nice guy who embodies national unity.
4. One point, I believe under AZ law, the governor must choose someone from the same party as the Senator last occupying the vacant seat. Still, I don't think McCain
5. Lastly, pray for the following (1) our success continues in Iraq, (2) the economy doesn't tank, and (3) a Supreme Court seat opens before the summer--with the right (sympathetic) nominee) that nomination fight, win or lose, will starkly expose to the American people the extremism of Senate Democrats (including you-know-who).
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
pray for ... (3) a Supreme Court seat opens before the summer--with the right (sympathetic) nominee) that nomination fight, win or lose, will starkly expose to the American people the extremism of Senate Democrats (including you-know-who).
That's the one thing I hope doesn't happen.
While I hope a trust Bush (despite the Harriett Miers fiasco) and even McCain to appoint good, textualist Justices, I don't know if that is a winning strategy for the Republican Party. Unfortunately, I think the majority of Americans actually like an activist Court, on the theory that it will eventually give them what they want.
For example, although a majority of Americans don't like abortion and even think it is murder (count me among them), a majority of Americans still do not want Roe v. Wade overturned. It makes no sense to me but that's the fact.
American homeowners need to answer some questions.
Do you want judicial activists who make up laws like Clinton appointee Ginsburg, who ruled that developers have a constitutional right to take away your house? Or do you want strict constructionist judges like Clarence Thomas who believe in defending people's rights as they are written in the Constitution?
Senator McCain should ask the American people these questions often.
PS. CHANGE isn't necessarily good. Changing from a homeowner to an evictee is definitely not good.
I agree with you that as a retort against the liberal refrain that we should have activist judges is to point out the travesty of Kelo. However, let's face it, the battle cry for both the Left and the Right on any judicial nomination is Roe v. Wade and the "right" to an abortion.
The sad, unescapeable truth is that the majority of Americans support Roe v. Wade and do not want it overturned; even as they personally oppose abortion and think it murder. I personally think that position is wrong -- and the textbook definiton of cognitive dissonance -- but it remains true, nonetheless.
1) Run against the unpopular demoncat congress, and heap Hillary and Obama in with them. Use the words "irresponsible" and "naive" to criticize boneheaded congressional actions, and then mention Hillary or Borat Obomba in the next breath for good measure.
2) Go to Florida and Michigan and sympathize. Campaign where they can't. Talk about inclusivity and voices being heard rather than some cadidates that just hear voices and do the same old stupid things, like not renewing FISA.
3)Go on as many foreign trips meeting foreign leaders as possible. When H and B are stuck in Podunkville talking about how they like mango ice cream, lead deligations to Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan talking about the future of democracy and commerce.
4) Don't be afraid to show a little temper if the anger is a just anger. All the critiques about McCain's temper are designed to make him look old and bland. We want to see a few farts and darts.
"The most dangerous form in which oppression can overshadow a community is that of popular sway" -James Fenimore Cooper
I like 3 above...combined with the strategy in the senate that I outline below I think it would be devastating to the Democrats assuming of course Iraq keeps going well
As to his Temper...Anger can be a good thing...Jesus chasing the money changers out of the temple with a stick but McCain need to work on measuring hid temper and releasing his anger in a constructive way and not comming off as crazy or unhinged as he did on Michael Reagan in 2000.
I've gotten a reputation here for the same problem so I know how hard that is for him but He's running for President and he can't afford to scare people with a tantrum or give the MSM fuel to poor on the fire.
Vote for your preferred candidate even if they've dropped out. Don't follow the herd in the stampede!
#1. At this stage, Hillary can win only if she wins superdelegates by a wide enough margin to overcome her loss in pledged delegates. If she does prevail in this way, a huge number of African-American voters will stay home in November. A Clinton victory comes over the cold dead corpse of the Democratic Party.
So McCain can hit hard at both, but he should hit hardest at Obama. BTW, an ongoing Hillbama battle will keep the Dems way out on the left edge. For McCain that's a target-rich environment.
#2. Wait on the running mate. It's always a strategic choice and Veep speculation will be one of the few things attracting media coverage.
#3. Define, define and define. McCain has to fight on only one front. Clinton and Obama each must fight two front wars. Contrast a resolute conservative agenda with the doctrinaire appeasement/tax and spend policies of the Democrats. They won't have a lot of time to respond.
#4. Dole didn't lose because he resigned from the Senate. McCain should keep this option open and take it if it frees him to stake out an independent position. If he happens to lose, why would he want the grief he would get by returning to the Senate?
1.Senator McCain should attack both, generically, as liberal Democrats, but do so by positive example. This will underline the fact that there isn’t a dime’s bit of difference between them on the issues. Let the Demoratic primary voters get caught up in the stylistic differences between the two, but don’t encourage everyone else to get caught up in the mainstream media’s storyline. Enlist respected surrogates – Fred, Rudy, Mitt, Arnold, et al – to launch tageted attacks tailored to each prospective Democratic nominee on specific issues of contrast. Kind of like a preview of a possible McCain cabinet. McCain himself should use some of the time to appear regularly with Rush, Laura, Hannity, etc.
2.Hold the veep announcement until it’s tactically meaningful –either just before the summer news blackout, or just before the convention, depending on what else is going on. Do not use it to attempt to compete with the primary on the other side, it won’t work.
3.Use the time period as a tease for point two, if the decision is made to hold the veep announcment until summer’s end. Speak off the record with three to four prospective veep picks, explaining that they have an opportunity to “audition” for the slot, explain what you expect, and let them take their best shots. They could even help out with point number 1. Kind of like an “American Idol” for political junkies, and if leaked to the cable networks, might be worth a story or two. Also, until Huckabee drops out, use each opportunity to celebrate a victory leading up to 1191 as an opporunity to demonstrate likability. After all, the Dems are becoming more and more strained and/or sonorous. A good contrast would have McCain lighten up in the face of the absurdity of the pro forma race with Huckabee.
4.Absolutely no resignation before Nov 5. The Senate floor is a platform for free media if used effectively. No reason to remind everyone, Republicans especially, that you are even older than Dole was in 1996. No Viagara commercials either.
nytimer
1) Decide which candidate you prefer to run against and focus your fire on the other. There is a danger here that you might build up the candidate you don't want to face but I think, given the unique circumstances of this race it's a gamble McCain has no choice but to take and hope the combined fire of McCain and his preferred opponent would take the other candidate out. On the flip side, you might focus your fire on the one you hope to run against if you think your attacks might build him up. I'm thinking Hillary is the opponent best suited for McCain to run against because of her high negatives and the fact that I really believe the voters are sick of the Bush Clinton Bush dual family rule in America.
If I were supporting McCain I would be scared of Obama. He's a wild card, his lack of experience and lack of a record are, on the one hand, a liability to be exploited but on the other he has less specifics which McCain could contrast himself with. Those inclined to support him because of his Charisma can hang almost any hope related or policy related matter on him and as long as he never speaks specifics they'll never be swayed to vote against him. My main concern would be Charisma and likability. No matter your level of support for McCain you have to admit, there's little doubt who would win the beauty contest. The Ghosts of Nixon vs Kennedy in the 1960 debate rear its ugly head here. Those who listened to the debates on radio thought Nixon won by a large margin while those who saw it on TV went for the more charismatic Kennedy.
2) Work on it and send surrogates out to drop names and create a buzz at least until June. (I have a sense Rick Perry of Texas will be the guy based on his heavy involvement already for McCain and he’s increasing his profile lately getting himself in the news more and more working for McCain.). My final decision would be to watch the other side and time my move based on what they do. If Obama locks this up soon and Hillary concedes and if he announces his running mate early, ride the buzz about your pick to the convention because as time goes by and the closer the Conventions approach the more likely it is that McCain would suck up all the oxygen in the run up. Additionally, McCain should be working as soon as Obama locks it up creating rumors that his announcement is imminent…By doing so he will at least keep himself in the news and more importantly maybe make the Dems jump the gun and announce early.
Announcing early might help with Party Unity but the benefit would be short lived. Were I in a tactical decision making position in the McCain camp I would likely go with the calculation that the Media will continue to do as they did yesterday in the NYT. Each successive story attacking McCain in such a lopsided hit piece will do far more to unite the party than almost anything McCain could do by announcing a running mate early. If the Dems keep fighting then announce early to create buzz for yourself and stay in the news because the Press will be so focused on the horse race on the Dem side McCain is going to have to use everything he has to get attention. If this becomes necessary I agree with Academic Elephant. Announce him and send him out as a surrogate. Pick a candidate to balance McCain’s weaknesses who will unite the party behind him knowing those who are struggling with their opposition to McCain are looking at the fact that the nominee would be the heir apparent in 2012 or 2016. By doing so you could bring holdouts along and encourage them to work for you based on the future.
3) Focus on McCain’s position in the Senate.
To begin author and support legislation that would first answer questions of Republicans who have problems with him. Make sure these pieces of legislation are publicized as widely as possible in areas where it will talk to your doubters in the party. This might help pull in Talk Radio personalities who are still attacking you and keeping large segments of your own party stirred up against you. Try to keep your outreach to these talkers as quiet as possible to keep from spooking independents who are your real base.
Also work on legislation that would put your future opponent on the defensive. The fact that McCain and his Democrat opponents are all in the Senate presents a perfect opportunity to pound your opponents from a strong position because they are currently focused on each other. Anything they vote on that puts them in a negative light needs to be challenged in as loud a manner as possible. Talk radio is the best venue for this. Any legislation both your potential opponents fail to vote on because of their battles with each other should be called to everyone’s attention on talk radio and in the MSM. This would do two things, first you make yourself look more responsible because instead of campaigning, (which you are still doing anyway), you are back making the best use of the time remaining before the General Election attending to the work of the American People. Second it puts pressure on the Dem nominees and makes it more likely to create a major gaff either on the campaign trail, (by making them change their focus), or in the Senate (they may make a major mistake by voting the wrong way on a popular initiative or make a bad comment on it that won’t go over well with the public).
4) Wait to resign till after the Convention as close to the General election as possible based on the strategy outline above. In my opinion, he definitely needs to resign. I agree with those of you who believe that by resigning in 1996 it was bad for Dole but he was a Senator running against a President. In this situation you will have two Senators running against each other. One of the mistakes I think Kerry made in 2004 was not resigning because it made it look like he wasn’t serious about winning and it looked weak because it gives the impression that he didn’t think he could win. Besides, if McCain wins and his opponent is Hillary he will take her out of the Senate and the likelihood of her returning after being able to beat McCain would ruin the Clinton brand for good. That in and of itself would make McCain a Republican hero and redeem him in my eyes. I would also make a President McCain a little easier for me and many others to swallow.
Vote for your preferred candidate even if they've dropped out. Don't follow the herd in the stampede!
He's like all the bad qualities people perceived in Mitt, with none of the good ones. There's a reason Kinky and Grandma were able to pick off so many voted in 06-Perry is just not that popular of a guy. And he does give off the, now what are we gonna do to get you in this BMW vibe that I don't think we need this year. Plus he's from Texas, and we ain't gonna lose Texas. Besides if we need to shore up TX, we've already lost the election.
"Do not yield. Do not flinch. Stand up. Stand up with our President and fight. We're Americans. We're Americans, and we'll never surrender. They will."-John McCain
McCain/Rudy 08-kill the terrorists and punch the hippies.
He's been on the phone trying to get Huckabee to drop out and he was on Hannity and Combs last night defending McCain against the NYT.
He may just be campaigning for the job because It's possible McCain hasn't sent him out to do it and he's doing it on my own but I think he seems to have an inside on the McCain Campaign.
I don't like him because of the Trans Texas Corridor and his attitude toward Ranchers and property rights as it pertains to it but looking at it from San Antonio and his appearances on the MSM He might be the guy.
Vote for your preferred candidate even if they've dropped out. Don't follow the herd in the stampede!
I meant he may be doing it on his own...duh!
Vote for your preferred candidate even if they've dropped out. Don't follow the herd in the stampede!
As someone who supported Romney, despite his endorsement of McCain, I'm not on board yet. And the race isn't over, given Huckabee's strong showings, and that he already milking the McCain scandal for all it's worth. This is the miracle Huckabee has been waiting for. And I am tending to agree with Bay Buchanan on this - she is pissed that Romney suspended his campaign and then this McCain story breaks.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
I'm still not on board but the likelihood of stopping him is getting thin, I think Huckabee will win here, maybe Mississippi, North Carolina and will appear to surge but It's a little too late at this point to even hope for a brokered convention.
This is a thread about what McCain should do assuming he's the nominee and Huckabee is irrelevant here so I'd leave it there.
Vote for your preferred candidate even if they've dropped out. Don't follow the herd in the stampede!
Obama has "Change:"--who can be against change? Particularly if you're young and don't want to wait your turn on the status quo ladder. Obama is a brand. McCain isn't, not yet.
Ah, but he has Experience. Experience? Sorry. That's small-change thinking. You put that on a resume. Besides, right now being experienced means being part of the stagnation.
John Boy needs a Big Idea. Hope. That's a big idea. All men are created equal. That's a big idea. Workers arise, That's another. Allah says so. That's one too. But this one will have to be something a grumpy old white guy can plausibly stand for.
If Obama is soda pop McCain is castor oil. It's a hard sale but not impossible, not if you can articulate what so many of us are feeling. These are castor oil times. I feel it in my bones and I bet I'm not alone, that America has been partying too hard and living beyond her means for the last couple of generations. Don't you all feel that something's gone horribly wrong?
I called McCain castor oil. Given eloquence and the Madison Avenue make-over, how is it different from "blood, sweat and tears"?
Look. I'm not a McCain fan. A year ago I vowed that I'd cut my arm off before supporting McAmnesty, but never say never. I've seen the alternative. But maybe my distance gives a valuable perspective on what McCain needs to be.
Take it for what it's worth, but it's time for Doc McCain might be the insight that leads to the package.
He needs one bad. And fast.
I completely agree - the brand is the most important short-term issue here. Right now his brand is "he's the guy who wants to stay in Iraq for 100 years". That's gotta change. Problem is, based on his record, I really can't think of one that's sexy enough. His biggest claims to fame are (1) Vietnam POW, (2) spending hawk and (3) GWOT stalwart. (1) is good but a lot of people are tired of dredging up the Vietnam War yet again. (2) is a bore and it plays to the Democrats' strength ("see what McCain proposed cutting today, the government baby milk program!"). And (3), I fear to say, has been overplayed by our current President. I don't know if voters are going to buy again the line that "this is a dangerous world and we need a strong Republican president, not some wishy-washy liberal" - I seriously doubt that enough voters still believe that this world really is all THAT dangerous. I think McCain's only hope is to focus on the economy, tax policy, and possibly (shudder) environmental issues. The economy is an issue in which voters are feeling a lot of angst right now and McCain could distinguish himself by being bold here. Everybody hates taxes, even (most) liberals, and McCain could do well here not just in proposing a radical new tax policy (flat tax/fair tax/abolish IRS/something) but in pointing out the essential moral rightness of hard-working Americans keeping more of what they earn. I add environmental issues because this is one area in which Republicans in general need to wake up and smell the forest burning. McCain should take a page from Newt's green conservatism agenda and propose some market-driven, individualist solutions to environmental problems (YES that includes global warming), while at the same time pointing out the collectivist nonsense of what Hillary and Barry are proposing in the name of "protecting" the environment.
is probably "Victory."
Given the choice between the abstract concepts of Change and Victory, I think most people would pick the latter. It's also an area where there's a clear distinction between him and Obama, one where Obama has to be negative. Our goal should be to get Obama on tape saying, "We Can't".
On [1.] One thing where I think McCain has a solid advantage is on the courage front, not just personal but political. McCain has (to our endless frustration) gone against the base many, many times.
Hillary and Obama? Eh. They argue about who jumped the highest after their base said "jump". Is there a single issue where either of them isn't doctrinaire? (The war doesn't count; Hillary supported it when it was popular to do so, and presumably did so based on expediency rather than conviction, given how quickly she changed her tune once the public soured on the war).
Something along the lines of "these guys don't even have the courage to stand up against the moveon/code pink folks; can you trust them to defend America against its sworn enemies?"
He should also be able to win hearts by stressing his commitment to victory (bonus: he has real battle scars) and contrast that to his opponents' commitment to defeat. I think the D's are misreading the public's opposition to the war and believe that those opposed to the war agree with them. My own belief is that a significant portion of these opponents are expressing frustration with how it's been conducted by W, and would be receptive to McCain's clear commitment to victory, genuine and unreserved support for the troops etc.
Could you repeat that. I am not sure I am following you. n/t
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(1) Stay above the fray and run a "rose garden" strategy. If one gets too far ahead of the other (eg Obama this week), send a few bombasts out to try to assist keeping it a close race. Otherwise, quietly amass resources.
(2) Hold off on this. The idea is not to get too visibly far ahead of the Democrats, which might give them a kick in the pants to get their act together.
(3) No.
(4) Yes. Staying in a Dem-dominated Senate is poison for McCain. If I was Harry Reid, I would make the next year a series of votes on immigration, waterboarding, and global warming. If McCain loses, he can run again in 2010, a la Goldwater and Humphrey.
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