We Are the New Deciders

By machiavel Posted in Comments (17) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

On Thursday night, I posted a comment on this Hotline On Call post on McCain's South Carolina endorsements, arguing that he making a fatal mistake by "fighting the last war" (e.g. mimicking Bush's top-heavy strategy from 2000). It makes little sense for McCain to put all his eggs in the insider basket, while forsaking the conservative grassroots, since gatekeeper status is shifting from early state elites to the blogosphere (which will be sorting, arguing, and winnowing down the field long before Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina).

As of Saturday at noon, that comment has yet to be posted (which is interesting since the MSM always tells us they value transparency and hearing all sides) -- so I'm posting it here for y'all. I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on the role of blogs like this one in 2008.

The full comment, as suppressed by National Journal, appears below the fold.

I'm tempted to expand on this more for a RedState post, but all of this navelgazing at McCain's endorsements strikes me as old school.

McCain is in essence fighting the last war, locking up the endorsements he imagines were denied to him last time. But what McCain forgot is that Bush won the hearts and minds of Republican primary voters while he also won their leaders' endorsements. Bush was able to be successful because the endorsements/fundraisers/"smart money" were in line with the actual wishes of Republican primary voters.

In McCain's case, he is doing little to secure the support of the conservative grassroots that distrusts him for reasons too long to enumerate here, and he has given us little reason to believe that he will walk back those problematic positions (just the other day he promised to make banning "torture" a hallmark of his presidency -- ugh).

In short, McCain thinks he was doomed by a powerful, insular cabal of Republican insiders, so he's building a powerful, insular cabal of his own. But Bush in 2000 also had plenty of grassroots support and led decisively in public opinion polls, while McCain's position with the grassroots is much more precarious and will likely remain so.

What happens when the establishment leads in a direction the grassroots won't follow? You have full scale revolts over issues like immigration and spending. You get Connecticut. You get MI-07. You get governors in Alaska who don't poll over 20% in their own primary.

Since 2000, we've also seen the growth of a little thing called the blogosphere and YouTube, which will likely alter the playing field dramatically for candidates intent on running the old top-down playbook. Two weeks ago, who would have thought that a budding Presidential campaign could be unraveled or seriously undermined by a clip posted on a website? In 2000, gatekeepers like Spears could dictate the flow of thousands of voters. In a network era, you have the SwiftVets rising out of nowhere and becoming gatekeepers overnight. You have bloggers dissecting every move, and covering and thinking about and analyzing the race in more detail than the old-style gatekeepers. Not engage in the cardinal sin of blogger triumpahism, because I genuinely believe this power is wielded collectively, but we are the new insiders, the new gatekeepers, the new deciders, and many of us don't like what McCain's selling and will do whatever it takes to defeat him.

McCain is running a 2000 strategy in a 2008 world. Once again, he'll likely discover his misfire two years too late.

Machiavel | 08.18.06 01:45 AM

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We Are the New Deciders 17 Comments (0 topical, 17 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »

as well. Him.

Fortunately for John, his four point answer on the hallmarks of his presidency came at a time when the MSM and even most of the blogosphere were not focusing on what McCain says.

It was a one day tempest in a teapot and might have been laid to rest. If it does come up again, he will have had plenty of time to figure out how to explain away the stupidity of his comments.

The upside, at least for those of us who oppose McCain, is that John is consistent. He'll find a high profile place, at the right time, and shove his foot in his mouth again. Only next time the focus will be on him and he will get eviscerated in both the MSM and the blogosphere and his head will explode because he cannot tolerate being challenged.

He may be fighting 2000 all over again, but if so he's fighting on the wrong front. He should be fighting his tendency to say stupid things, to be personally offended when people point out how stupid his comment was and then to defend the original stupidity. And that's what will be his undoing.

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If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"?

On that note by FirstState

I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on the role of blogs like this one in 2008.

On that note, one of my favorite bloggers, Howard 'Extreme' Mortman, has a series of interviews on this topic with bloggers in early primary states. Some interesting stuff there, and not just because I'm one of the bloggers interviewed.

Serendipity by Robert A. Hahn

The thing that so many of these old school campaign types fail to grasp is that they don't get to run their own campaigns anymore. Their opponents won't be running their own campaigns either.

To this day, John Kerry cannot believe that the Swift Vets were not in some way connected to the Bush campaign. The notion that an opponent could appear out of nowhere — or in Kerry's case, out of his own past — simply because they hate your guts and want you to lose, is totally foreign to them. They just don't get it that in this day and age, anyone, from anywhere, can choose to join your campaign or oppose it. And virtually anyone today has the power to make some kind of noise.

I'll bet money that Karl Rove chewed his fingernails down to the quick wondering whether those "Swift Vets" were really going to hurt Kerry, or totally screw up The Rovian Plan for Conquest. He had no way to know, and no way to stop them.

Over on the Democrat side, they had their own "volunteer meddlers" in the form of MoveOn and the rest of the George Soros show. Whatever carefully laid plans the Democratic politicians had made, they were all tossed into a cocked hat by a huge crowd of enthusiastic interlopers.

The same thing will happen to McCain, and to everyone else running. They will get help, and they will get hit with flying bricks, by people who have decided on their own to participate in the campaign. And there is not a thing these "experts" and "pros" can do about it.

The right Flash video could catch on and totally sink some candidate. No one will see it coming, and no one will be able to stop it. Chances are, no one will be able to make it on purpose, either. Things like that just "happen," or they don't, totally outside the control of anyone. Dozens of people tried to make "the next JibJab video," but not even JibJab succeeded.

McCain in particular will hate this, because removing these third-party influences from campaigns has been a crusade of his. But even had he succeeded in stomping out 527's, he still can't stop the serendipitous blog posting or homemade video that gets loose on the Internet and causes measureable change to the campaign dynamic.

I don't know that the behavior of the "campaign professionals" can change because of this. They will still want to run a "calibrated message" effort, even though the environment will be full of "messages" — even ones meant to help them — that they can't control. They will still want to line up endorsements from supposedly influential people.

I don't think there's much they can do to influence the various enthusiasts who want to participate in campaigns now. Even if they line up the supposedly "influential" bloggers, somebody else could come out of the woodwork the week before the election and throw a wrench into everything.

No one knows how this new dynamic will affect things. Or even whether it will be good or bad. The only thing that I feel certain about is that we will see fewer slickly-packaged, blow-dried empty suits elected to office. That for sure will be a good thing.

Drink Good Coffee. You can sleep when you're dead.

5 [n/t] by zuiko

---
"I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more I have of it." -- Thomas Jefferson

Very True by PhxG

McCain, in his last 3 election cycles has completely ignored campaign essentials in AZ. He will have a few signs placed but they are far and few between. He doesn't need to, he will win on name recognition.

And therein lies his greatest failure to grow from Senator to President. I do not believe he is electable to the presidency because he can no longer get an adequate number of democrat votes. They hate him over at the netroots.

I won't vote for him for Senator. And I doubt I will have to vote for hin for president.

He never won votes by Adam C

from leftist (i.e. netroots). He won votes from some Clintonian Dems and from many independents who want politicians to stand up to both parties more often. He merges Republican votes (40% in AZ) with independent votes (25-30% in AZ) to achieve his 65-70% vote totals and approval rating. A few Ds like him and a few Is don't, but the model does not rely on Ds.

This model is rather new since the advent of 25+% independent voting blocks is new. It is closest to Reagan's ability to combine Republican votes with moderate and conservative Democratic votes. And McCain's appeal to independents is just as strong now as it was in 2000. In fact, he has quite a bit of loyalty from them. He could probably tack to the right a bit by emphasizing issues where he is more conservative without taking much of a hit among indies. He could talk about his long pro-life record, his national security views, and his pork-busting efforts. I don't think he will but he could.

Finally, independents also generally dislike and distrust Senator Clinton more than other politicians. They have a higher level of intolerance for seemingly fake politicians whose views sway in the breeze of public opinion and whose ambition trumps their committment to serve the country. In a McCain v. Clinton matchup, McCain will win 75% of independent voters and could probably win even if 20% of Republicans stay home. If Rs don't stay home, he could win over 400 EVs.

Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

A Difficult Decision by rsdude8472

Either McCain or Rudy would probably run away with the election if they win the nomination. I think one of the important decisions we will be faced with as the primaries approach is if we want to be virtually assured of winning with someone we only agree with somewhat, or if we want to take the risk of handing the Presidency back to the Clintons or someone worse in the hopes of getting a strong conservative in the White House. I do not know what the answer is. Fortunately, we don't have to decide yet. We still have Bush for the the next two years, and in that time events may well suggest the answer to the question I have posed.

OK by PhxG

I agree with your voting analysis, but I doubt Hillary will make it past the primaries.

Nice comment... by AnonCon

But at the end of the day, as drunk as the blogosphere can occasionally become on its own perceived efficacy, success in Iowa and New Hampshire will probably rest a long more on hand-wringing and baby-kissing than on the opinions of [insert witty name here].blogspot.com. Yes the occasional news tidbit or inside information that might have been shunted before could make a big difference, but absent some damning video or the testimony of a few dozen aggrieved former colleagues mere hostility on the part of pajama-clad keyboard warriors is unlikely to sink candidates.

Torture by rsdude8472

I think it is interesting that McCain wants eliminating "torture" of people who want to kill Americans should "a hallmark of his presidency," especially since there has been a report (in the Guardian, but still) that torture may have been critical to saving thousands of American lives on the 16th of this month.

The idea that Spears' endorsement was a key factor in Bush's 2000 primary win is ridiculous. Despite McCain's upset win in NH and the hysteria it generated in the media, Bush entered the SC primary holding some good cards. His father - and mother - were and are held in the highest esteem here. He had early organization here. And he took McCain to the woodshed in the debate just before the primary.

A big issue McCain's campaign raised was the "push-poll" misrepresenting McCain's adopted child as the product of an out-of-wedlock liason with a woman of another race. This was false and malicious, but had no connection to the Bush campaign whatever: it was the sole project of an independent preacher and two others on a single day, totalling no more than 200 calls. It was repudiated strongly by Bush as soon as it was known. Yet McCain kept playing the "dirty campaigning" angle.

In the debate, Bush again strongly denied any connection, and chided McCain for his own false and negative campaigning. McCain became righteously indignant - if it is possible to distinguish that state from his usual demeanor - and vigorously denied he had engaged in any sort of negative campaigning.

At that point, Bush pulled a flyer out of his jacket pocket, bearing the imprimatur of the McCain campaign, which had been distributed on car windshields at fifteen Wal-Marts across the state the previous weekend. It was down and dirty, and left McCain speechless.

Had McCain denied his campaign hit piece, Bush had proof to the contrary, but the Senator cut his losses by remaining stunned and silent.

It was no contest. Stans Spears is a good man, and many vets will give him a listen. He wasn't a kingmaker then, and he isn't now.

Neither are bloggers, though. Most South Carolina voters couldn't tell you what a "blog" is, as I suspect is the case with most voters nationwide.

Excellent points by peg c

on the rowdy unpredictability of the coming campaigns. The old school types don't get it, and still think top down. The Swift Vets are an excellent example of the root effects on campaigns; so is Howard Dean, as in the Dean Scream endlessly echoed throughout the blogosphere, talk radio and on cable. And who can forget John Teletubby Kerry?

In both parties, campaign managers are not in control of either the base nor the wild roots. Furthermore, our side has talk radio, which the other side most definitely does not. Their concept of media is still shaped information pushed by elites to a passive, receiving public. Their side of the blogosphere resembles a crack house; our side resembles a military-influenced business school. In a war of the wild roots I do not see the Dems winning.

Yes, Democrats: Please, please PLEASE try to impeach the president during wartime.

peg c by jsteele

Yes, Democrats: Please, please PLEASE try to impeach the president during wartime.

The only problem with this peg is that large parts of the American people have bought into the incessant drumbeat from the left that we are not at war. Another large segment has "tired" of the war; they've gotten bored because it isn't over yet.


John
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Why would God invent a thing like whiskey? To keep the Irish from ruling the world of course.

Stan Spears? Puhlease. by Mike D in SC

Most people in SC never heard of General Spears. The only time his name ever comes before the general public is once every four years when he runs for reelection as Adjutant General of the state National Guard. And if Gov. Sanford gets his way and starts appointing the Adj. General, even that meager name recognition will go away.I would hazard to guess that most SC veterans don't even know who he is.

A Lindsey Graham endorsement is far more valuable to McCain than a Stan Spears endorsement. (But Graham has alienated many SC Republicans with his association with McCain and the Gang of 14. I, at least, liked Graham much better in 2000, when he was SC-03 Congressman and much more recent Clinton prosecutor. I even voted for McCain in the 2000 primary, but that was before his assaults on the 1st amendment.)

I hope you and the kids are finding some peace with your new normal. You're still in my prayers.

Thank you, Mrs. C17 by Mike D in SC

We're getting through it.

Good to hear by Socrates

I wondered how things were going for you. I decided I really couldn't imagine, and left it to the Lord.
--
More brilliance such as that can be found at the Academy. And yes, I know how pretentious I sound.


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