The U.S. Missile Shield
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in Missile Defense | National Security | Poland | Russia — Comments (5) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
As is well know, the United States has been working to get the cooperation of Poland and the Czech Republic for the implementation of a missile defense system. Poland appears to be on board:
Poland said Friday it has reached an agreement in principle with the United States on plans to install a missile defense system on Polish territory.
Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski says that after meetings with U.S. officials, he is satisfied that the United States will deal with security problems that Poland wanted addressed as part of an eventual deal.
The announcement should add momentum to a project the Bush administration has said it hopes to start building this year. The project, a major source of tension with Russia, had looked stalled since the Polish government of Donald Tusk sought new demands after taking office in November.
Sikorski did not outline the terms of the deal, but in a joint appearance with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice after a working lunch, the two officials suggested that the U.S. would help with Polish air defenses, as Poland had sought.
"We understand that there is a desire for defense modernization in Poland, and particularly for air defense modernization in Poland," Rice said. "This is something that we support because it will make our ally, Poland, more capable, it will make Poland, as the foreign minister has said, more able to operate with us."
Sikorski said that negotiators would continue to work on the details of an agreement that would allow the U.S. to install 10 interceptors as part of a long- range European missile defense system.
"We are not at the end of the road as regards negotiations. We are in the middle of the road," he said. "We have an agreement in principle."
There may be more of the road to travel but this is nonetheless a positive development. It also constitutes a direct challenge to Russia, which seeks to re-establish its hegemony over former Soviet satellite states. Watching what the Kremlin does in response ought to be most interesting. My guess is that there will be a lot of bluster and anger directed Poland's way. I am not sure that it will be enough to derail this agreement but it may be enough to force Warsaw into making some soothing comments aimed at placating the Russians. Russian demands on other issues may be met as a way of buying off the Kremlin on the missile defense issue.
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Here is a notable example. Also see the recent attempts to destabilize Ukraine and Georgia's relatively pro-US administrations. Putin is freaked out about the natural gas going to the West, and he's freaked out about democratic movements (the "color" revolutions). He done much to stop both in former Soviet states and increase direct Russian control and manipulation.
You don't see Russian influence, perhaps, because the citizens of these countries largely hate Russia. But that is unrelated to battle for Russian regional hegemony.
I don't think so. Putin's inked several billion-dollar deals to expand Russia's grip on delivering energy to the West. Here's the latest:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/18/europe/putin.php
He's done his best to transform his country into Europe's gas station. When the Russians gain a controlling share of that market, they'll project more economic power than they've ever had. Energy is an excellent policy tool for Russia.
The people I know in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland aren't worried about the Russians. They're more concerned with paying bills and competing with core EU nations.
Russia is a leading energy supplier, yes, and they "lead" more every day. But they get most of the energy they actually use from Central Asia, notably Turkmenistan (which also supplies Iran when they feel like it, but that's another story, one I'm surprised Pejman hasn't mentioned considering it involves TWO unsavory, undemocratic dictatorships).
Putin is freaked out about Central Asian nations and the Caucasus aligning themselves with the West because the Russians would have to use their own domestically-produced energy and wouldn't be able to export it at high prices. So he's strongarming various nations and factions into 86'ing the trans-Caspian pipeline, even though that would be better for the long-term prospects of most nations.
If you're specifically talking about Poland, Hungary, etc., fine, the signs there aren't as overt. But I think we're talking about Putin's desires and what Putin wants, right? The only reason that Eastern and Central European nations aren't feeling Putin's pushes for increased Russian hegemony is because Putin hasn't cemented his ability to supply Russia with energy, and therefore he can't fully deploy the diplomacy of Russia-caused gas shortages on NATO-aligned European states yet.
In short: the undemocratic push for hegemony in Central Asia presages the bullying quest for hegemony among the European satellite states. The idea that Putin's foreign policy differs based on whether the foreign country is to his west or south is ridiculous; the notion that Putin's near-impotence in the region translates into a lack of motivation is silly. His clear aim is to be a regional superpower and he's setting that up quite nicely.
Finally, you write:
He's done his best to transform his country into Europe's gas station. When the Russians gain a controlling share of that market, they'll project more economic power than they've ever had. Energy is an excellent policy tool for Russia.
You limit it to "economic power." But when it comes to energy, economic power is political power. That certain East European states have been insulated from that so far is no proof of Putin's benevolence or surrender.
The mood of the US is to go home, and slam the door, and let the rest of the world go to hell, if it wants to. If I were Poland I wouldn't get too chummy with such an unreliable partner.
Besides the Pax Americana is about over. Even with the strongest will in the world, there's not much we can do for Poland or for Europe. They're all dependent on Russia's good will for their energy, and they know it, and NATO can be stopped in its tracks by turning off a tap in Siberia. It may be that Europe will be happier as Russia's mini-me. Temperamentally, the EU bureaucrats seem closer to the Kremlin than they are to us; neither seem to feel particularly beholden to the will of their people.
True, the French seem to be embarked on one of their harebrained schemes to form a sort of mediterranean EU with the energy rich Moslem states, but the deal will presumably involve unlimited immigration into Europe. The Russians are by far the lesser of the two evils, but that's another subject.
I know 4-letter words are strongly disliked on this site, but give me leave to express extreme dismay: how the word-that-rhymes-with-duck did we manage to blow it so spectacularly?
You write that Russia "seeks to re-establish its hegemony over former Soviet satellite states," but most of what I've seen and read indicates that Putin's chief interest is in consolidating power *within* Russia.
In the last few years, I've traveled through several former Soviet satellites, but I haven't seen evidence of Russian influence. If anything, the peoples and cultures seemed to be trending westward. Can you cite a few examples of how Russia is again trying to become the predominant influence in Central/Eastern Europe?