Iraq: A New Mission
Where we went wrong
By Leon H Wolf Posted in War — Comments (50) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
As one of the people who agitated for this discussion, I feel that I should state a few things up front about what I do and don’t believe about the war in Iraq, in an effort to avoid confusion about precisely where I stand.
First, I don’t believe that the President cooked the books, or lied, or engaged in any other dishonest measures to get us in to this war. I have a long enough memory to recall that the best intelligence of the United States, Britain, France, and Russia all indicated that Saddam did indeed have weapons of mass destruction. In the face of such evidence, only the most foolhardy of individuals (I’m looking at you, netroots) would have not undertaken some manner of military action against Saddam. With the benefit of hindsight, a large group of people are now second-guessing a decision which we now know was made from faulty premises; however, from the premises which existed, it was the only reasonable decision. As such, I am not an opponent of the Iraq war, nor do I believe that it was wrong for us to invade Iraq.
That said, I have cone to the inevitable conclusion that our current goal in Iraq – the establishment of a democratic state – is one which is doomed to failure. Accordingly, I believe that the United States should, if necessary, abandon the goal of establishing a democratic state in Iraq, and should instead focus on leaving behind a friendly state in Iraq, in whatever form that Government might take. Even so, the question of what shall be left behind in Iraq is not a ripe one at the present time, for the primary mission should be (and should have always been) the utter and complete annihilation of our enemies who are there, using whatever force is necessary.
I realize full well that much of this is contrary to positions I have taken in the past, and I shall explain what led me to these conclusions below the fold…
Like many Republicans and conservatives, I was originally taken with the idea that Democracy, by the very fact of being Democracy, could serve to dampen the flames of Islamism that rage across the Arabian Peninsula. I reasoned to myself that if Iraq could become a beacon of freedom and prosperity in the Middle East, that it could serve to destabilize the bewitching hold of the Imams in that region of the world. The Marshall Plan stood as a historical testimony to the fact that success by such means was at least theoretically possible; that if we stood resolute in defense of our Democratic friends and shone the beacon of freedom for the enslaved peoples behind the Iron Curtain to see, eventually global Communism would implode upon itself and we would rid ourselves of our greatest enemy. And so history did indeed unfold, and now there are no truer friends to the United States than most of the nations of Eastern Europe.
In retrospect, I can hardly believe that I was capable of overlooking the absurd assumption involved in drawing this parallel; namely, that the Middle Eastern world is anything like Eastern Europe, that its people operate from even similar views about the world, and that the Muslims of the Middle East, like the everyday citizens of Eastern Europe, could not possibly desire to live under the governmental system in which they found themselves.
I count myself among the conservatives who were forcibly disabused of these notions when the Palestinians, having been finally rid of the corrupt and tyrannical Yassir Arafat, went to the polls, and in the first truly democratic election on the Arabian Peninsula, elected Hamas. Then, just in case it might be thought that this result was an aberration, confined to the unique circumstances of the Palestinians, the Lebanese expressed their clear preference for government by Hezbollah.
These events, combined with the prolonged struggle in Iraq, brought home to me what should have been facially obvious to any conservative – that the belief that (as Paul said) the hardness of man’s heart can be cured with more money and freedom is one that is fallacious to its core, and at the very least, antithetical to conservatism.
A brief pause is in order here to note a truly bizarre thing – that those who most vociferously oppose this war call themselves “liberal” – despite the fact that it is a central liberal belief that if man is only given enough mammon and liberty, he will reach the magical land of self-actualization, where the very notion of strapping a bomb to oneself the name of a religion would be unthinkable. Indeed, if I were to sit down and ponder how a war such as Iraq might be sold to liberals, the idea of planting a democracy and enriching the people would have been the first idea to spring to mind. It is this fact that makes it very hard to take the anti-war movement in this country seriously – I suspect that the real (though perhaps subconscious) source of their animus has little to do with the war or its aims, and everything to do with the fact that they still believe Bush to be an illegitimate President, who stole four years from Al Gore. But I digress.
What I think that this war has caused many conservatives to forget is that democracy is not an end, it is a process. It is a process under which a populace is allowed to put its most fervent desires into public policy. In general terms, Democracy is hard to argue with, because after all, shouldn’t a government be responsive to its people? Perhaps. But let us not blind ourselves to the fact that if the most fervent desires of a populace are the destruction of Israel and the West, democracy will not magically change such a people into a nation friendly to Western interests. What it will do is elect Hamas, or Hezbollah. This is no longer a hypothetical point. In 100% of cases thus far, democracy on the Arabian Peninsula has elevated a terrorist group to a position of official governance.
I am not by any means an expert (or even a pretend expert) on military tactics, so I cannot meaningfully address whether the military portion of this operation has been prosecuted well, poorly, or somewhere inbetween. But I believe I have a justified fear that the Talisman of democracy has affected our military tactics in ways that are unacceptable. I can conceive of no military reason why Moqtada al-Sadr should have been allowed to live, I can only interpret that decision as a sacrifice to the insane proposition that such a man as al-Sadr could be a meaningful participant in a peaceful democracy. Having not been to Iraq, I cannot pretend to speak authoritatively, but once again I fear that we have been more concerned (or at least as concerned) with showing the Iraqis that they are our friends as we have been with showing our enemies that they are defeated.
As for what should be done, I do not advocate immediate withdrawal of our troops from Iraq. I think all conservatives stand in near unanimity that what is needed at this point is a general like Sherman, who will be willing to do all that is necessary – public relations aside – to rout the terrorists (most especially al-Sadr) who are in Iraq. After this point, it is time to re-examine what we hope to achieve out of Iraq. A democratic state was an interesting notion, but perhaps it is time that we realize that this may not be the magic solution that we had initially hoped. Given a choice between leaving behind a democratic Iraq in the hands of a group like Hamas, or a non-democratic state which is friendly to Western interests, I will choose the latter every time. I understand full well that this leaves unresolved the question of what should be done to deal with the larger war on terror, which of course is not confined to Iraq, but that is another post for another day.
Right now, the conservative cause and all it stands for has been hitched to the wagon of the current war in Iraq, which is pursuing objectives that are liberal at their core. Further, it is contributing significantly do widespread electoral dissatisfaction with the elected representatives who are even interested in advancing conservative policies. For these reasons, I believe that a change of mission is in order in Iraq.
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Sorry, sloppy writing. I should have made this distinction. You are right that Turkey is stable and somewhat pro western. But Turkey is also not an Arab nation and has a long history of stable governments dating back to the Roman Empire. Perhaps a monarchy in Iraq is an answer, though how you go about uniting that country without genocide seems a difficult question. I don't know enough about the history of Indonesia to compare it to what we have to work with in Iraq, but it seems like a completely different set of circumstances. The question in my mind remains, how do you unite and stabilize a country like Iraq in the short term without instituting some kind of Muslim dictatorship in the likeness of Iran?
Well my position has never changed from the very beginning. We should never have gone in the first place and if we are not out of Iraq before 2008, the GOP is going to lose the White House. Plain and simple. The question is whether we are going to save the GOP despite Bush 43.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC.
...the same process/changes my thinking on Iraq has gone thru over the course of the last 2-3 years. I think you're right on what is needed now, too, but I also think there's zero chance that this admin. at this point in its miserable life would even contemplate putting a "Sherman" in charge in Iraq and giving him the authority to do what's needed, even if we could indentify such a military leader in these days of Pentagon PC. In fact, I think that if such a person ended up running things in Iraq by sheer chance, and started to act the part for even a moment, he'd be more likely to get yanked back to the US and paraded before various gaggles of Congress critters than he would be to get backing from the Bush admin. Sad to say, but W has gone completely wobbly on this war. Barring some major catastrophe - inside the US - to get him angry again, that isn't gonna change while he's in office.
I understand everybody's frustration with democracy as the answer. Many, evidentally like Leon, feel betrayed because they honestly thought that democracy would lead to a perfect middle east. Now people want to roll back the clock and say "forget this democracy experiment, the people of Iraq were not ready, a strong man friendly to the US is all we need". However this rational is illogial and dangerous.
First of all, while democracy is certainly not a magic bullet for the problems of Iraq, it is a drug. Once given, the people become addicted and will not give it up without a fight. 60+% of the Iraqi population faced death to go to the polls and vote. If you think these people would merely roll over and accept a dictator forced upon them by the US, you are making a huge miscalculation and will create a larger war.
A US friendly dictator is a bit of an oxymoron in the middle east. Even if they start out that way they rarely stay that way. Leon brought up the point that the middle east has only elected terrorists to represent them, groups antithetical to our purposes. If this is so how can we expect a dictator friendly to US purposes to be installed? The people will overthrow him. They have seen the reign of Huessein come to an end, there is no reason to think they will be cowed by a new strong man. Similarly it is foolish to think that Iraq's neighbors would allow a US friendly dictatorship to last. Iran and Syria would tear such a leader apart within minutes of US departure. Saddam was different because he had a support structure lined up, we've dismantled that and there is no current leader who could have one in place in such a short amount of time.
Third, since this strong man will not have the support of the people because they don't want a US puppet, and the states surrounding Iraq don't support this puppet, how will the United States ensure that he maintains power? Saddam ruled by gassing the Kurds and machine gunning Shiite and I fear that is the only way we could install a new dictator. Are we prepared to do that? Are we prepared to go before the world and spit on the notion of human rights by killing people for wanting democracy? If this should happen America has already lost the war on terrorism. While I understand the frustration voiced by Leon, his idea is simply impossible.
International Affairs is just Political Science with an accent.
With a question - from the standpoint of United States interests, who would you rather have running Iran: the Shah or Ayatollah Khomeini?
"We could find a speck of dust and scribble down our life stories..." - The Refreshments
That's an easy one, but how about this: what if Jimmy Carter had kept the Shah in power and then heavily pressured him to enable democratic reform in Iran in the 70s? Might that stand us in even better stead now?
"I'm kind of old-fashioned. I like to engage my brain before my mouth." Donald Rumsfeld
Part of his point was that a pro-American puppet would be resisted/overthrown by the domestic population. If you recall, that's exactly what happened to the Shah.
Had the US allowed democracy early on, the would have ended up with Mossedegh(sp?) instead of the ayatollah. Instead they supported a pro-American strongmen which only created resentiment and eventually led to a hostile takeover by an American enemy.
Did the Shah stay in power? How many times are we willing to return to Iraq to keep our strong man in power? The Shah had a power infrastructure behind him and was still toppled. Who ever you plan to install in power wouldn't even have that. If the shah fell, what makes you think this strong man wouldn't? I understand your point, and from the standpoint of the US the shah is preferable. I'm just saying its unrealistic to think you can make that work.
International Affairs is just Political Science with an accent.
The Shah fell through the spectacular incompetence of Jimmuh Carter. He could have stayed in power, but that would have involved the kind of difficult choice a man such as Carter could never bring himself to make.
I might note here that it's possible that such an arrangement is just not possible - but if we operate from the premises that any nondemocratic government friendly to the United States would not stand, what in the world would lead us to believe that any democratically elected government that is friendly to the United States to stand?
I have a much longer post, that I will put up next Wednesday, about what probably ought to be done from a strategic standpoint, worldwide - but the burden of this post is merely that democracy is not the necessary solution to this particular problem - and in fact may aggravate it.
"We could find a speck of dust and scribble down our life stories..." - The Refreshments
...as we learned last Tuesday.
"I'm kind of old-fashioned. I like to engage my brain before my mouth." Donald Rumsfeld
Of course, when I say "aggravate," I mean from the perspective of encouraging Islamism.
"We could find a speck of dust and scribble down our life stories..." - The Refreshments
Leon, because the Shah was in power because we followed your proposal. Just like Somoza was in power in Nicaragua. Duvalier in Haiti. Trujillo in the Dom Rep.
Our history is full of the folly of expediency where we propped up various dictators in the hope that they would be friendly to our interests and somewhat benign to their people though that was clearly a secondary concern.
The real question you should ask are we better off in Iran for engineering the deposing of Mossadegh in favor of the Shah? Isn't Khomeini really our creation because we created the very reason he became a political force: a friendly dictator.
But look what followed the Shah - when the popular uprising got ahold of him, we were left instead with the Khomeini, who was the product of the popular movement of his country. I understand that generelly propping up a dictator is at best a band-aid over a gash that requires stitches, but Haiti is a very different country from any that is currently in the Middle East right now.
So the Shah was a band-aid. He was better than what came behind.
"We could find a speck of dust and scribble down our life stories..." - The Refreshments
Korea - You do remember the Korean government which, along with the U.S., successfully opposed the North and the Chinese was non-democratic until the 90's? Right? I would call Korea a success. Wouldn't you?
In the region of the Middle East, we have Jordan, Egypt, Morrocco, and Algeria that are non-democratic but with pro-American governments. Would we be better off with these governments gone, and in their place the Muslim Brotherhood as the governing force?
Latin America also has examples of supporting strongmen working. Are you saying that support for Pinochet was wrong? Chile has the best economy in Latin America. What about Argentina? Should the U.S. have backed the communists instead of the right-wing dictator?
Should the U.S. have intervened with the Brits in the 1950's to re-install the Shah?
No. That was a mistake. Sometimes the backing of right-wing dictators has been a mistake. Sometimes it has been good policy.
That means the right course of action requires a judgment call, not vain platitudes. Iraq may need a dictator to stabilize the situation. That may work where Democracy fails.
The expediency you so decry has worked in multiple cases. It has failed in others. That doesn't automatically preclude supporting an authoritarian regime as a possible answer.
A US friendly dictator is a bit of an oxymoron in the middle east. Even if they start out that way they rarely stay that way. Leon brought up the point that the middle east has only elected terrorists to represent them, groups antithetical to our purposes. If this is so how can we expect a dictator friendly to US purposes to be installed?
I don't believe Leon actually proposed a friendly dictator, but in any case I will insist on this:
We absolutely MUST consider the possibility that there is no "solution," in political terms, for what threatens us from the Islamic world. This goes back to my oft-repeated point that Islam and the West have been at war for over a thousand years; that nothing, so far, has proven effective at removing the temptation of Muslims toward Jihad. There may be no solution, folks, except the obvious one of keeping them out, of reducing as far as possible the Muslim influence on our policy; and of maintaining the strictest vigilance of any military power from the Islamic world that could move against us en mass.
___________
And the Lord upon the Golden Horn is laughing in the sun.
thought experiment: what if the belief that all of the existential tensions of the human condition, inclusive of those seemingly endemic to the Islamic world, are problems to be solved were analogized with the technocratic faith of liberals, modernizers, and Jacobins down through the ages that the application of reason to the affairs of men will engender progress?
I believe that the results would be instructive. At a minimum, we would be led to the realization that the congenital American optimism is an all fit with the fact of just having enemies.
My harp is turned to mourning, and my organ shall speak with the voice of them that weep. Spare me, O Lord, for my days are truly as nothing.
I have to say, Leon, that I disagree with your premise that 100% of the time free elections have been tried in the Middle East they have resulted in the election of terrorist groups. For starters, Hezbollah is not in the majority in Lebanon. Furthermore, unless I'm mistaken free and fair elections have been held in Iraq and Afghanistan, and neither country elected terrorist groups to lead them.
That said, I agree with IAFstudent that democracy is no magic bullet. It's a mess. It can be frustrating and demoralizing and horribly inefficient. But even so, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, it beats the c*** out of any other system that has been devised to date.
"I'm kind of old-fashioned. I like to engage my brain before my mouth." Donald Rumsfeld
I intended to say - and I believe I did say - that elections on the Arabian Peninsula have produced terrorist governments - I count Afghanistan, Pakistan, and parts further east to be animals of a different stripe, with different motivations. I submit that the matter in Iraq has not yet been settled, and that absent our presence there, a group of similar odiousness might well come to power. So the question must be asked, are we willing to stay in Iraq indefinitely in order to prop up a government which is at least not facially allied with interests that are hostile to us? And if so, how do we avoid the perception that the new government is simply a redux of the Shah?
"We could find a speck of dust and scribble down our life stories..." - The Refreshments
democracy is no magic bullet. It's a mess. It can be frustrating and demoralizing and horribly inefficient.
The problem, as I see it, is not that democracy is inefficient, but that it can be horribly efficient -- at giving legitimacy and power to popular passion, or merely factional passion. And what if the most organized passion in Islamic lands is Jihad? What then?
Democracy becomes not mere "not a magic bullet," but a bullet aimed at the head of the infidel.
_____________
And the Lord upon the Golden Horn is laughing in the sun.
Democracy requires belief in democracy. It requires the willingness to abide by the result of a vote, and to seek change via another vote. Democracy doesn't work if you don't use it, and if you don't believe in it, you won't try. If what you understand about politics is that power comes from the barrel of a gun, you're not likely to give voting a chance- it simply won't make any sense to you.
History demonstrates that revolutions occur in the context of rising expectations- that is, not when things are hopeless, but rather when the background is one of hope. In other words, this sort of stupidity (like getting your gun out and deciding to mete out some justice) is to be expected when the lid under which you've lived for a couple generations is suddenly taken off. It's just another symptom of the underlying problem: these people haven't been responsible for their country, and don't know how. They've been victims of it instead.
I suspect that the real failure we've discovered in our sojourn in Iraq is not any lack of military capability on our own part- it is that we failed completely to understand the extent to which Iraqis came to fear and hate each other under Saddam, or that once a glimmer of hope was shown to them that things might get better, that the first thing they'd do is have a collective tantrum.
> It requires the willingness to abide by the result of a vote
Which is tough for a minority like the Sunnis which used to rule by force. It's tough for the Shiite majority to be gracious winners and give much power to the Sunnis, who slaughtered them by the tens of thousands and who have fought a rebellion against the government since day 1.
That really is the key that since day 1 the Sunnis have never accepted being an minority in a democracy. Instead they launched a civil war against the Shiites and the Shiite majority government. It was inevitable that the Shiites started to fight back, and unless there is a deal it is inevitable that there is a full scale civil war.
The reality too is that the Kurds only accept democracy, if they accept it at all, by being 99% independent, and the Shiites would not accept a democracy which gave the Sunnis too much power, like if there were constitutional amendments.
Who else was on the ballot, out there and campaigning, that Palestinians were supposed to vote for? If the only choices are Fatah and Hamas, there's no way NOT to vote for a terrorist, but to sit out.
Without an answer to that question, I see no way to use the PA as an argument against our mission in Iraq. Because the PA is a special situation: it IS what Iraq WILL be if we give up. It's a proving ground for every tool the Arab League wants to use to work out its propagandistic grievances.
--
If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
For full disclosure: I initially was a huge skeptic on the war. But I'm old school and gave full support when the president decided to invade.
It always seemed foolish (and horrifying that so many otherwise intelligent people bought into it) that a democratic Iraq was remotely possible. But as the war dragged on, I saw that inadvertently there would be one benefit to the United States: jihadists flooded into the country and we were able to fight them there.
So I am one of those rare people who opposed the war but came to see there was some wisdom to it, albeit not the ludicrous notion democracy was possible. The national interest of the United States was served because the battlefield was removed from our shores.
What has changed is that the White House has signaled that it will allow a Democratic Congress to micromanage the war. This represents a sacrifice of blood and treasure so one party can blame the other for "defeat," which also is a ridiculous assertion.
If the objective was to remove Saddam, the war ended years ago. If the objective was to enforce UN resolutions, the war was won years ago. As for WMD, well, there is no need to continue to beat that dead horse. If, as I think, the war had the positive effect of the destruction of al-Qaeda far away from our porous, naive and vulnerable country, the events of the last week have put an end to that side benefit.
The only question is how fast American troops can be withdrawn and not leave a failed state behind, and whether that can even be avoided.
If someone bought into the neoconservative ideal of a democratic Iraq, perhaps some comfort can be taken in that this was a beautiful failure. For those of us who take a more realistic view, the goals are to leave without creating another Afghanistan, to take out as many terrorists as is politically possible before we leave, and to make sure at home the idea that got us here is marginalized and never allowed to dominate another administration. The Republican Party itself will have to take some folks to the woodshed in 2008, but the coming purge is a secondary concern.
Our troops must come first.
One problem I've always had with the "global war on terror" is that it leads some to conclude that we have a mission to wipe out terrorism everywhere on earth. In reality the mission of our military has always been simply to defend the united states.
Imagine a country fighting a civil war (say Iraq). If either side kills civilians in an attempt to intimidate the other, they are by definition terrorists. What they did is a war crime which I disagree with, but I don't think it is a threat to the United States.
The goal I think that matters is that we need to get a government in Iraq that will not be a state sponsor of terrorists, and will not import their Sharia law to other countries. I agree that promoting the creation of new Jeffersonian democracies across the globe is a liberal ideal instead of a conservative ideal. The tricky part is to be able to convince enough people in the US and the rest of the world that is goal of ending state sponsored terrorism and ending the spread of wahabbism and sharia are worth fighting for through military, diplomatic and economic means.
You’re a persistent cuss, pilgrim.
John Wayne to Jimmy Stewart in The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance
In my opinion, the goal of establishing a democracy in Iraq is not a fool’s errand. Muslim culture is not inherently incompatible with democracy according to Bernard Lewis “Freedom and Justice in Islam”. The point which is in doubt is whether, with sufficient support, the moderate Muslims will win the reins of power within such a democracy. If the traditional Muslims, with the Dar al-Islam/Dar al-Harb world view, win out then such a democracy will not produce a friendly government. Perhaps Paul’s intuition as to the outcome was correct, but in that the consequences of the latter imply deadly enmity, I for one desire a certain rather than speculative resolution to the former possibility. Are we there yet? Will Iraq’s security forces be able to stand up and support a functioning democratically elected government in a discrete period of time? The confluence of our Democrat leaders and the elections seem to be forcing us to give a final answer of NO. Personally, I would like a more authoritative answer.
If NO must be the answer, then… Whether we leave behind the semblance of a democracy or a “realist’s” version of a friendly autocracy makes no difference to me. The end result is going to be an unfriendly nation which will eventually go the way of Iran against the Shaw, or Afghanistan against the Soviets. With NO as the predicate, can anyone make a convincing argument that friendly stability a la realist is even a possibility?
Giving up all hope for a political solution nevertheless leaves us with the problem of defeating our enemies. And on this I agree with you rather than Paul. In that case, at the very minimum, we need to establish permanent bases around Iraq from which we can and will strike and destroy Islamist targets. Giving up winning the hearts and minds will have a major cost, but we cannot give up on winning the bloody war against Dar al-Islam. We might wash our hands of the sectarian strife and political struggle in Iraq, but we cannot leave as long as hostile Islamist enemies operate there.
In summary, I would stay the course if the military study group believes it can succeed with time. Otherwise, change the course to what you have suggested, which I consider to be a return to a unequivocal state of war; one which will likely escalate, spread and last. The other direction is the turtle maneuver and though I have seen it suggested, I have not seen it defended.
John E.
Bush should announce that he is complying w/ democrats wishes to pull out of Iraq. Since democrats never thought we should've entered Iraq Bush should pressure Iraq to let Saddam free and restore him to power. Watch how the dems squeal like stuck pigs.
Democrats always position themselves in impossible contradictory positions. Take out Saddam but don't bother Iraq. Don't put Saddam back in power but we never should have been in Iraq in the first place. Iraq has no terrorism but we should kill the terrorists in Iraq.
Their flip flopping for solely political reasons makes me physically sick to my stomach.
CommonCents
"It often shows a fine command of the English language to say nothing at all."
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George Bush is still President and Commander-in-Chief, not a Prime Minister. It would be a betrayal of his office to turn those responsibilities over to Congress -- and he (and the Republicans) would still be held responsible for the outcome. Following your suggestion would be to act like a 3-year old.
What does that do for us? He holds a chunk of the Iraqi government. You kill him, the government fails, and all hell breaks loose in Iraq, pushing the Shiite majority there further from the US and right to Iran. I think this would cause a massive insurgency against our troops. I don't think we want to be fighting a large section of the shiite majority. The longer such a fight continues, more Shiites will become sympathetic to the cause.
Leave him in power, and you continue to have death squads, reprisal killings, and the ever-present threat of escalating sectarian violence. The risk is that Sunnis get fed up, walk away from the government, it fails, and civil war looms.
Seems to me you have on one hand the risk of starting a war between Iraqs majority and our troops (or ensuring that Iraq becomes Iran Jr.), and on the other, the risk of us being stuck in the middle of a civil war. Leaving him alone and letting him ascend to power has created a lose/lose situation in Iraq.
Getting rid of him should have been done early on. I don't know that doing it now will provide any positive results. There is that chance that the Shiite majority would simply say good riddance to him and move forward, but optimistic assumptions about our actions in the Middle East never really pan out.
I thought we agreed not to Al-Sadr? I don't know the details but it happened when his men and he were trapped, fighting in that cemetary etc, then Grand Ayatollah Sistani came back. Sistani negotiated peace, and talked about public marches if we didn't stop fighting. It seemed clear that in exchange for Sadr retreating to Sadr City and leaving Sistani's area alone, that Sistani gave Al-Sadr his protection.
If that holds, then killing Al-Sadr is not an option. We'd need to convince Sistani.
is the hobgoblin of little minds..." -Ralph Waldo Emerson
My thinking on the war in Iraq has taken a very similar course. In the heady times following 9/11, it was unthinkable that a head of state who was a known sponsor of terrorism and whom several trusted sources believed had WMDs would be allowed to remain in power while ignoring UN resolutions and playing games with weapons inspectors.
I think it is increasingly difficult to imagine that Iraq will be a better place when we leave than it was when we arrived. It is far easier to justify war to remove a threat and then just do our best to stabilize the area and walk away than it is to justify war to remove a threat and transform the politics, culture, and, of course, hearts and minds.
When we leave, they're going to fight among themselves for dominance. If our plan is to stay until that won't happen, we're kidding ourselves.
> When we leave, they're going to fight among themselves for dominance.
That's a key point. Some have said that we should put a million troops on the ground to pacify Iraq. But eventually we'd have to leave anyway, at which point they'd resume fighting.
It's their country and eventually they'll decide how they want to live.
"Even so, the question of what shall be left behind in Iraq is not a ripe one at the present time, for the primary mission should be (and should have always been) the utter and complete annihilation of our enemies who are there, using whatever force is necessary."
Good article but I find myself at issue with the above quotation. Who our enemies are is largely tied to what we want to leave behind in Iraq. To be sure their are foreign fighters using Iraq as a proving ground for their troops and tactics but from what I've read most combatants are Iraqis tied to groups vying for dominance. Thus so if we abandoned democracy all together and went with a strong man, take for example Al Sadr, we would change his troops from enemies to allies.
I'm not suggesting we do this but exactly who is the enemy that we must annihilate? The foreign fighters to be sure but whom else? The militias, if so which ones or must all militias be annihilated? What about the political parties that support and are supported by these militias do we annihilate them as well? What about Kurdish separatists? They may not be shooting at us but their goals would harm our relationship with turkey, should we annihilate them to protect our interests.
I don't mean to belabor the point but I wanted to make my meaning clear. We have the power to totally level Iraq and kill every Iraqi man, woman, and child. Are our enemies in Iraq the people who want to destroy America or the people who want to control Iraq and don't mind killing American soldiers if that furthers their goals but have no larger ambition to destroy America or both? And once decided how do we tell them apart?
There will be no simple solution to the Iraq problem and who are enemies are is inextricably tied to what our goals are and what form of government we intend to support. So the time is past ripe for a decision on what we intend to leave behind because that will dictate whom we must fight.
In a nutshell, the problem in the Middle East is that a confederacy of nation states is not very amenable to the Islamic culture; the nation state is a product of Western culture. (The boundaries are artificial colonial creations.) Their natural unit is either clan or caliphate (and it will be curious to see whether modern technology can hold together a modern caliphate against the centrifugal forces of clan).
On the other hand, there is observable evidence is that many in the Middle East are favorable to democratic processes such as elections, legislative haggling and are eager to try it when offered the opportunity.
Thus our problem was not attempting to introduce democracy; it was the attempt to impose it at a nation-state level for a collection of fractious clans who had been forced into an artificial union and dominated by one utterly ruthless clan leader (and his fellow-clan minions).
and previous posters, is a classic example of confusing goals with strategy. The creation of the democratic Iraqi state (on the model of post WW-II Western Europe and post Cold War Eastern Europe) was devised in the vacuum following the successful ouster of Saddam. It is a strategy, not a goal and as such it can be abandoned when shown to be a failure.
Contrary to what is sometimes expressed, the Pentagon did have a plan for post-war Iraq. The war hawks (Gingrich, Perle, et al) had envisioned the regime change as a quick one-two in and out for American Forces: based on the successful campaign to oust the Taliban in Afghanistan, the US occupiers would immediately hand over control to a provisional government made up of Iraqi exiles, followed by the quick withdrawal of most American forces. As it turned out, while the US had installed Charles DeGaulle and the Free French army in France after its liberation, and similarly had turned over control of Afhganistan to Hamid Kharzai and a force of Afghan exiles, this plan never had a chance in Iraq.
For one thing, the program to recruit Iraqi fighters had mustered about a hundred at the time of the invasion, and the Iraqi leaders were on the order of Ahmed Chalabi -- not a unifying figure. In addition, the State Department and the CIA refused to sign off on the Pentagon plan, on the grounds that the new goverernment would lack legitimacy. Historically, Iraq has never had a unifying leader who was not installed and maintained by force.
In the chaotic aftermath of its brilliant military conquest of Iraq, the Pentagon agreed to drop the idea of a provisional government of exiles. Instead, Rumsfeld agreed to the creation of the CPA (Coalition Provisional Authority) which would oversee the midwifing of the democratically elected, constitutional Iraqi state. Our troops would take on the job of policing the country and providing some level of civic order -- securing the peace, rather than winning the war.
This, to my way of thinking, was the point at which we took the wrong path, and arrived at our present situation -- one in which our options have been dramatically reduced by political realities.
I am extremely sympathetic to Leon's point of view, but I must say that it is too narrowly proscribed. In this, I find that I find Mark Steyn's argument in America Alone very compelling.
It isn't Democracy alone that we need to export -- it's the whole ball of wax: democracy, capitalism, individual liberties, religious tolerance, etc. etc. In short, the entire underpinnings of our cultural tradition.
Yes, this is an imperialistic project. In this, sign me up as an imperialist, for I have total faith in the goodness of the American people, in the benevolence of our culture and tradition (with whatever flaws we must acknowledge), and in the ultimate truth of our worldview.
This is one of the clearest difference between our enemies and us. They have absolutely zero doubt that Islam is Truth writ large, and that it is The Way for all people, whether Arab or not. We, on the other hand, seem to have no confidence that our way of life is superior, that it is good, and that it is the true state of being for all people everywhere. We might say the words, use the rhetoric -- as Bush did in numerous speeches, that Freedom is a gift of the Almighty -- but our actions belie our words. It's time to change.
Steyn rightly believes that the problem with American hyperpower is not that we abuse it around the globe -- as the wacko Left wants to believe -- but that we don't. The British Empire, whatever its flaws and faults, has left behind a magnificent legacy for hundreds of years. The American empire will leave nothing but chaos and ineffectual "multinational" organizations like the U.N. around because the American people are generaly disinclined to imperialistic tendencies.
Is this notion inimical to the conservative tradition? Perhaps so. I know there's a very strong strain of... non-interference (I hesitate to use the term isolationist, as fraught with connotations as that term is) in American conservative thought. Where I find myself heading is that perhaps in the post-Cold War world, where the greatest challenge of our age is Islamist ideology, it isn't enough to establish formal democracy of voting, counting, and legimizing governments. We must export our culture, our traditions, along with democracy. If 9/11 changed everything, why not this as well?
If that means a hundred years of colonial rule in Iraq, in Iran, in Syria, in Pakistan, in Palestine... so be it. We are accused of doing it in any event, despite all evidence being exactly to the contrary; let's get to it already.
Seriously, if instead of rushing to a "Iraqification" project in Iraq, under the misguided idea of "liberation", what if we had simply set out to conquer the country as would have been traditionally done? And was done in Germany and Japan and Italy? What if we had simply brought in American personnel to run every important function for the past five years? No corrupt oil ministers, no Shi'a/Sunni/Kurd tensions to worry about -- just American oil executives running Iraqi oil infrastructure fairly with capitalist ideas? Rather than the Iraqi police, infiltrated by Shiite death squads under al-Sadr's control, why not a colonial police force staffed by veterans of NYPD and LAPD? Would our situation in Iraq really be worse five years later than it is now?
The insurgency would have been worse initially, but that fight we can win day in and day out had we the will. And if Iraq is an actual de-facto American colony, Syrian and Iranian interference would take on very different colors, and we could and should respond accordingly.
Seriously, who would have stopped us? Chirac and de Villepin? Germany? Russia? China? If we had acted with the confidence and will, none would have dared to interfere -- and would have privately thanked us behind closed doors for taking care of the whole "Islamist" problem each is facing within its own borders.
And a generation later -- after all the youth of Iraq have been educated by Americans in the meaning of things like rule of law, civil liberties, gender equality, religious tolerance, racial tolerance, principles of free markets, democracy, civilian control of the military, etc. etc. and all its leaders civilian, military, and commercial have all been trained in the U.S. to our ways -- then we could have granted Iraq its independence. Our desire long-term is never to have colonial outposts, and I don't believe the American character would change all that much during our pacification-via-imperialism period.
Osama bin Laden said famously that "When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse." Are we the strong horse? Could we have been?
If we are to continue as a nation after the defeat in the first round, then I believe we must do so in a dramatically different fashion than we have, understanding fully that our task is to combat a pernicious ideology. If out and out imperialism is going to do the job, so be it. Let's get to it.
-TS
"What is a moderate interpretation of the text? Halfway between what it really means and what you'd like it to mean?" - Justice Antonin Scalia
Sophist, you make a vigorous argument -- there can be no doubt about that. The unapologetic imperialist has a certain appeal.
But your difficulties are immense. What Christian, for example, can follow you in your bold assertion that the American way of life is "the true state of being for all people everywhere"? A great many may be a bit reluctant to say a society which countenances hundreds of thousands of abortions every year, which is on the cusp of affirming once again, in law, that human beings are be treated as property (for research purposes), is the true state of being for all men.
And can there be any doubt that, even if this astounding project of total cultural transformation were agreed upon, bitter dispute would soon arise as to what elements are actually to be included? For many of our formative years, for example, American capitalism had a distinctly mercentilist hue -- our free traders were the agrarians of the South. Or again, is religious tolerance as our Liberals understand it really an authentic part of our tradition?
You may well be right in saying that a much more heavy-handed occupation and colonization would have avoided many of the problems we now face. I'm inclined to say you say. But do you really think there was the will for such an undertaking?
In short, and with all due respect for the vigorous ideas you advance, your thinking on this seems tinctured by a dangerous strain of utopianism.
_______________
And the Lord upon the Golden Horn is laughing in the sun.
may be to blame to some extent.
The main thrust is simply to vigorously agree with Mark Steyn: What is killing the West, and by extension killing us, is not our lack of ability, but our lack of confidence. Is not Liberalism at its core an essential and fundamental lack of self-confidence? Multiculturalism, political-correctness, knee-jerk victim worship, nanny-statism, obsession with "safety" at the cost of liberty... all of these are symptoms of the deeper problem: the lack of confidence that our way is indeed the right way, and the best way.
And can there be any doubt that, even if this astounding project of total cultural transformation were agreed upon, bitter dispute would soon arise as to what elements are actually to be included? For many of our formative years, for example, American capitalism had a distinctly mercentilist hue -- our free traders were the agrarians of the South. Or again, is religious tolerance as our Liberals understand it really an authentic part of our tradition?
Frankly, you're right to note that a bitter dispute would arise. The Left and their cohorts are ever-quick to point out the racism, the bad imperialism, the sexism, the slavery of our past, genocide of the Indians, and so on, while the Right is quick to point out abortion, the pornographic pop culture, the deterioration of the family and its value, and so forth. But that is the real war then -- not the actual bullets and colonial policing we're engaged in now in Iraq and Afghanistan, but the war over Who We Are and What That Means. Either we will acquire the Will, the confidence in ourselves and in our own judgments (flawed and human they may be) or we will not. Al Qaeda, Islamists, nuclear Iran, jihadis by the millions -- none of these things can defeat the United States. We are the pinnacle of hyperpower that human history has produced. We can only defeat ourselves. So the war then is here in New York, and LA, and Chicago, and Knoxville, and every little hamlet and village right here in the United States -- not in the mountains of Kandahar or the streets of Fallujah. I say, bring it on -- let's get to it already.
Here's how I see things now. No matter what its flaw, our Anglo-American tradition constantly evolving and growing as it may be, is superior to the Wahhabi-Arab tradition, or the Bureaucratic-Warlord tradition of the Far East, or the Tribal-African tradition of the African continent, or any other tradition men have ever dreamed up. It is objectively superior by any objective measure of human well-being. Let us judge the tree by its fruits, and then not shirk back from pronouncing our particular bush to be good, and not only good, but superior.
I think you may be drawing a bit too much inference from the "true state of being for all men everywhere". Nonetheless, I will say that I don't believe Christian fatalism -- some variant of the "not this world, but the next" -- is part of the American tradition either.
What is the alternative, after all? Fortress America? I know this is your proposal -- alienate the Muslims, make sure they can't come here to spread their ideological virus, and draw a steel curtain around the U.S. That way lies deterioration and defeat not just for us, but for the whole world. A Eurabia that spends all of its time beheading gays and Jews and extracting jyzia out of infidels would essentially stop globla trade in its tracks. Russia would have to go out in a paroxysm of last-ditch fury, while China would run rampant over its sphere of dominance to relieve the pressures on its 1.5 billion people. I'm sorry, but that way lies millions, if not tens of millions, of corpses. And a sad, sad legacy that would be of the American Empire.
-TS
"What is a moderate interpretation of the text? Halfway between what it really means and what you'd like it to mean?" - Justice Antonin Scalia
I am glad to see your articulate keypad trumpeting this line. I don't know whether you recall it or not but months ago, in the context of conversations about American culture, I was also trying to make the point to you that this failure of confidence has seeped into the Western mindset so deeply that it is unconsciously common to both liberals and conservatives.
The Utopian trap can and should be avoided by realizing that our species is engaged in progress toward what is right and true. Our culture is not there but is comparatively closer.
Last spring I realized that I think imperialism on our part would be a good thing. Much transformative dialogue would seem to be necessary before such a strategy could be practically be applied to Iraq.
I agree with you that a core element of Liberalism is a failure of confidence. But here in your argument I see, frankly, much of the same thing. For example, you lament that we "lack of confidence that our way is indeed the right way, and the best way." This too is Liberalism: this universalism which hinges our prosperity or even survival on the broadness of our appeal. Unless our tradition is universally good, it is bad.
But in fact, for a people to really have the confidence you seek, they must discover, not that their way is "the right way, and the best way" for everyone, but more modesty, and more solidly, that their way is their way, and worth keeping because it is theirs.
I think this universalism is simply contrary to human nature. Men come to love particular things. They may harbor thoughts that their particular things are probably good for others too, but what really moves them to action is the threat that their things may be destroyed. Their confidence is in their nearness.
The problem with Liberal universalism, even of this robust sort, is that it subtlely teaches contempt for one's own. A man feels that he must be driven by some higher purpose, some revised crusade. He is ashamed that, upon examination, what really motivates him is love of his neighbors -- his real, actual neighbors -- and his home. It teaches that it is not enough to be a patriot; one must be an ideologue too.
I do believe in the essential goodness of the American tradition; I do believe in its superiority to most any other that has been conceived. But before all that I believe in its goodness and superiority for us. I have great difficulty crediting your belief in an objective criterion for judging the quality of traditions -- at least one that is accessible to us, much less that could be agreed upon. Certainly I believe in a transcendent order of justice, and in a Judge, but how civilizations will be weighed is an extraordinarily difficult question. To put the matter controversially: which society will be judged harsher, the Old South, with its terrible sin of slavery, or today's America, with its terrible sin of abortion. That sort of question is beyond my pay grade.
As for Fortress America, I do not advocate something so harsh. What I advocate seems right obvious too me: that we resist the Jihad where it is closest and most dangerous first; and since discerning who among the Muslims is or is not an enemy has proven pretty much impossible, we have act with broad strokes.
Here is another thing, and a huge one: what do really confident societies do when confronted by internal threats? Think about it. Just the sort of thing that would horrify right-Liberals like yourself and Steyn. Reflect on how, say, America handled subversive movements in her midst back when she did have more of that confidence. Lincoln tossed Northern secessionists in prison and threw away the key; Jefferson Davis hanged Unionists in East Tennessee (a fact the despisers of Lincoln tend to forget); Wilson launched the "Palmer raids" against leftists all over the country; John Adams signed the Sedition Act; etc., etc. Or reflect more broadly on the West in its more confident days. Consider the gentle hand of the Spanish against the Moriscos. Were not the Crusades one of the few examples of confident resistance against Islam?
It seems to me that people pining for civilizational confidence would not like it if they lived to see it. A confident America -- confident, let us say, in the "objective superiority" of her tradition -- might outlaw mosque-building, remove Islam from the protection of Free Exercise, or, as I have advocated, simply remove jihad from any legal protection. After all, how did we treat the Mormons?
So again I say that the right-Liberalism of benevolent empire is tinctured with utopianism.
________________
And the Lord upon the Golden Horn is laughing in the sun.
if it is best expressed in reticence.
But in fact, for a people to really have the confidence you seek, they must discover, not that their way is "the right way, and the best way" for everyone, but more modesty, and more solidly, that their way is their way, and worth keeping because it is theirs.
I just don't see how this is either confidence or will. It seems a very peculiar sort of confidence in the rightness of one's way to refuse to impose it on others. It strikes me as a moral relativism of a sort -- perhaps not as pernicious as the Liberal variety born of self-hate, but certainly not expressing that What We Believe Is True.
If your neighbor is molesting his 12 year old daughter and boasting of it, claiming it is some sort of tradition in his family, you do not shrug and say, "Well, their way is their way, and worth keeping because it is theirs, just like my way is my way and worth keeping because it is mine." You have him arrested and you put a stop to that evil "his way".
To do otherwise is to cut your neighbor off from common identity, from "community" if you will.
Does it make a difference whether you do it to your neighbor, or we the United States do so to our global neighbors?
If 9/11 proves anything, if SARS proves anything, it is that in the modern (post-modern?) world, there is no such thing as "over there". What's going on in the caves of Afghanistan, or the madrassas of Kashmir, or the rural farm of a Chinese chicken farmer in Xian, has immediate and direct bearing on us living here in ease and comfort.
We could not disengage even if we wanted to.
Besides, why would we want to disengage?
The problem with Liberal universalism, even of this robust sort, is that it subtly teaches contempt for one's own. A man feels that he must be driven by some higher purpose, some revised crusade. He is ashamed that, upon examination, what really motivates him is love of his neighbors -- his real, actual neighbors -- and his home. It teaches that it is not enough to be a patriot; one must be an ideologue too.
And on this, I could not disagree with more. It reminds me of the crystal clear difference between the evangelical Presbyterian congregations I've attended in my youth and the liberal UCC congregations I go to now. The former, believing that he has found the ultimate truth, the ultimate good, can't wait to share it with others. There is no discernible contempt for one's own in that expression of religious confidence -- to find self-contempt there, one must perhaps be a trained literary theorist expert in the ways of subtlety and nuance. In contrast, you have the Christians who profess the Good News, who profess the faith, and yet wouldn't dream of having a conversation with a neighbor about it. Why, it wouldn't be polite! Why, that would be embarrassing! Now, that attitude, I believe, is in fact dipped in the waters of self-contempt, as if the Christian in question is saying to himself, "I can't believe I actually believe this claptrap, and yet...."
If we believe that what we have is in fact good and true, why would we be so reticent to push it on others? Do we really doubt that girls would rather not be raped for the crime of appearing in public without a full burqa? Do we really believe that people would rather be excluded from society, from prosperity, from fairness, from justice, and from life itself for the crime of having been born a Jew?
As to objective measures... fine, we can agree that one day we'll all be judged by the Eternal. Until that time, however, we can fully look at measures like economic prosperity, lack of fear, equality between the sexes, presence of fairness and justice, infant mortality, production of scientific discoveries, production of works of art, percentage of children going hungry, whatever you wish. By every measure, our tradition and our culture is superior to that of the enemy.
Your equating the Slave South with the Abortion America is something I can understand; however, let me say this in response, Paul: Do not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Let's not forget our imperfections, but let's not get so caught up in it that we fail to combat evil in our time, enervated not from fear but from guilt.
Finally, as to the consequences of a confident America...
It seems to me that people pining for civilizational confidence would not like it if they lived to see it. A confident America -- confident, let us say, in the "objective superiority" of her tradition -- might outlaw mosque-building, remove Islam from the protection of Free Exercise, or, as I have advocated, simply remove jihad from any legal protection.
Believe you me -- if I'm going to take the probably extreme position that what we need is more rather than less American imperialism, I'm not going to blink at the possibility of outlawing jihad within our borders and territories under our control. If that is what it takes for victory, then that is what it takes. As we conservatives are so fond of saying, the Constitution is not a suicide pact. Better that mosques are outlawed by the United States of America today, than to have churches outlawed by the Islamic Republic of United States tomorrow.
What else is Will and Confidence, if not that?
-TS
"What is a moderate interpretation of the text? Halfway between what it really means and what you'd like it to mean?" - Justice Antonin Scalia
I'm very glad to hear this --
Better that mosques are outlawed by the United States of America today, than to have churches outlawed by the Islamic Republic of United States tomorrow.
-- so glad, indeed, that I am almost prepared to drop our other disagreements in the service of a common cause.
Almost.
Let me remind you, however, that what you have advocated is not that we "talk up" our tradition, teach it, praise it, recommend it -- but that we impose it. Let me remind you, also, that we hardly teach this tradition even to ourselves. It is a controversial matter in the public and higher education circles of this country, whether there is anything but dishonor, oppression and avarice in American history; often what is actually celebrated from it are the aberrations. Schoolchildren hardly even read our founding documents anymore, much less study them, or learn to hold them in reverence. American sins are taught as more noteworthy than American achievements.
The "what if your neighbor is molesting his daughter and calling it a solemn tradition" point is, with all due respect, a bunch of hooey. It was me who affirmed obligations to one's neighbors, after all. I certainly do believe there is a difference between my actual neighbors, and the "global neighbors" of my country, a mere abstraction.
I worry, also, that you have infused America with a kind of religious character; otherwise your comparison to the evangelical Presbyterians and the UCCers holds no water. America is not the Good News. She is my country, a particular part of creation, which God declared good. No doubt her particular goodness is worth celebrating, worth teaching, worth counselling emulation; but her goodness is not dependent upon her universality.
Here is how the insistence on American catholicity breeds contempt: it links goodness indelibly with greatness. If we lose this war, if in three generations America is no longer strong but feeble and broken, how can she still claim any affection from the universalists? Under the spell of this teaching, weak and subjugated countries cannot really have patriots, can they?
And in truth, America is feeble. Her confidence is shattered, as we have been discussing. And part of the reason this is so, part of the reason you look for a confidence that is fading every day, is that several generations of sophisticated Liberals have been teaching her sons that she is good only because she embodies something universal, but that her particular character is rather unlovely, even detestable.
________________
And the Lord upon the Golden Horn is laughing in the sun.
Paul,
I think we may still have disagreements vis-a-vis the whole "meaning of American identity" issue as it pertains to legal immigrants and whatnot, but in this, I assure you there are few if any disagreements.
Let me remind you, however, that what you have advocated is not that we "talk up" our tradition, teach it, praise it, recommend it -- but that we impose it. Let me remind you, also, that we hardly teach this tradition even to ourselves. It is a controversial matter in the public and higher education circles of this country, whether there is anything but dishonor, oppression and avarice in American history; often what is actually celebrated from it are the aberrations. Schoolchildren hardly even read our founding documents anymore, much less study them, or learn to hold them in reverence. American sins are taught as more noteworthy than American achievements.
First, as it comes to the "talk up" vs. "impose it" distinction, I apologize for the hazy writing -- but I was still thinking of my proposal for imperialism in Iraq and elsewhere. In a situation where we have committed force of arms, then I do now believe that we should go the whole hog and impose our values. The blood that we have spilled and the treasure we have spent demand that we not play to a draw, but go for victory. Iraq in retrospect should have been a campaign where we ought to have cared far more about the "American street" and far less about the "Arab street" if you will. Rather than rushing the Iraqis to elections and installing al-Maliki-the-Shia-who-may-be-fomenting-civil-war, we ought to have installed various American administrators, American viceroys, and what-have-you until the entire country was pacified.
Where we have not done so, then of course we should promote our value and our traditions, and "talk it up" instead. Where American "madrassas" and American "mosques" and American "charities" will do the job, then we should go with that of course.
As to your point about our current educational/cultural edifice seeing only dishonor and sin... what can I say except to say that such lack of confidence is surely sign of our enervation? That the True War is to be fought in our society, right here at home, rather than in the streets of Fallujah? Where I think we still have hope is that the American people, I believe, still love their country more than they despise it. The American Elite... may not. The grandees of our media organizations, the sophisticates of Hollywood and New York City, the intellectuals of Cambridge and Berkeley, and the technocrats of Foggy Bottom may all be obsessed about how terrible the United States is, but I believe that we can start to change course.
If nothing else, the Republican Party should rightly come about now and work to reinvigorate the American soul. That whatever our faults, whatever our historical crimes, whatever our imperfections, our way is still the right way, and it ought to be taught, praised, and promoted -- and yes, where we have sent our military, ought to be imposed. In a sense, this may be what it means to be a conservative in the post 9/11 era.
The "what if your neighbor is molesting his daughter and calling it a solemn tradition" point is, with all due respect, a bunch of hooey. It was me who affirmed obligations to one's neighbors, after all. I certainly do believe there is a difference between my actual neighbors, and the "global neighbors" of my country, a mere abstraction.
I knew that you were going to respond this way, and I thought about expanding the original but a few paragraphs. :) Might as well do so now.
In all seriousness, if you've lived in New York or San Francisco or Boston for any period of time, you would know that "actual neighbor" is equally an abstraction. I've lived in NYC for seven years without knowing the first thing about my "actual neighbors". What makes someone a neighbor is that you choose to interact with them, that you choose to care about them, and that you choose to include them in your "communion" if you will (and vice versa), thereby creating community with them. If you simply ignore each other, then they are no "neighbor" of yours, whether they live 10 feet from you or a mile down the road.
My view now is that the United States has too long behaved like the NYC resident who scrupulously goes out of his way to avoid contact with his "actual neighbors". Mexico is no abstraction; our neglect of their corrupt ways is no abstraction -- it results in tens of millions of their citizens streaming north in contravention of our laws and our borders. Afghanistan under the Taliban was no abstraction; our neglect of what was going on there resulted in the WTC being brought down and thousands of our citizens dead.
And just like the NYC resident who tried so hard to ignore his "actual neighbors", only to find out that should said "actual neighbor" set fire to his apartment, his own apartment would also burn down... we are finding that when the virus of Wahabbism infects our "global neighbors", we suffer as well.
Finally, your point about weak and subjugated countries having real patriots is well-made. However, I suppose the way I would respond is not that weak countries cannot have patriots, but that whether weak countries have patriots or not doesn't matter. There may be staunch patriots of Lichtenstein, but... who cares? Those partisans of the Sioux Nation could be admired for their affection, but they will have no impact on world affairs one way or another -- except perhaps as cute historico-cultural artifacts who keep interesting Native American dances and arts alive.
I agree that America is feeble; but I argue that our confidence isn't "shattered" so much as it has been "poisoned". America is rather like a King Theoden, reduced to feeble weakness by the whisperings of a Wormtongue and his Big Government programs infantilizing us. There is hope yet, because there must be hope yet. Otherwise, the dark night will descend upon us and right soon.
As Ronald Reagan proved, all the intellectual whisperings of Liberals cannot stand up to simple common sense and that "naive" optimism so natural to the American character. If the conservative project means anything at all, does it not mean this attempt to bring America to its senses, to reawaken it to not only its greatness but to its purpose in the world?
I worry, Paul, that your approach of "let me be proud of America because she is mine" will ultimately end up making us the global equivalent of the Amish -- a cute cultural Disneyland who love their traditions and their ways because they are "theirs", yet irrelevant in every respect, whose role in the world is to be visited from time to time by the tourists from the various Islamic Republics.
I hope that isn't the case; I believe that we agree far far more than we disagree. I am no longer depressed, no longer angry, no longer in denial -- things are what they are. I accept the world we live in as it is. I accept that we're not perfect, that we have much to regret, much to be ashamed of, much to improve upon. I accept that we're good, that our way of life is a better way of life for everyone, that given the choice between living in America and living anywhere else, millions upon millions of people will choose to live here because of the freedom and opportunity available here. I accept that many of our own people, too inured to privilege and unable to accept the gift of being an American, want to spend an eternity flagellating themselves and us with them. Yet I cannot go on feeling bad about slavery, about Jim Crow, about the Native Americans, and all that, because I can't afford the luxury. Because I accept our hyperpower for what it is: a great gift and a great responsibility all at once. I accept that we must act now, right now, in this and not the next world.
If we stumble, the world goes into the long darkness, and we go with it.
-TS
"What is a moderate interpretation of the text? Halfway between what it really means and what you'd like it to mean?" - Justice Antonin Scalia
I'm going to post a diary so we can continue this debate elsewhere.
Great Tolkein reference, by the way.
___________
And the Lord upon the Golden Horn is laughing in the sun.
As I have been following intensely but biting my tongue so as not to intrude on what I have for some time felt to be a dialogue of essential necessity to understanding our way forward.
John E.
Thhe main mistake made was the insistence by the WH that democracy could be imposed and built immediately, simultaneously with security. It can't.
The WH and other conservatives like to use the examples of Japan and Germany, but they're so different that it's not worthwhile.
For starters:
1. Both nations had unconditionally surrendered. That's a big deal. They gave up ALL of their weapons, decomissioned ALL of their forces, and basically capitualted and submitted to allied rule. That didn't happen here. The ideologies of National Socailism and Japanese Militarism were thoroughly discredited and defeated, their cities in ruin and thei rpeople prostrate before their nre rulers. IN Iraq, and in the ME in general, Islam has not been defeated or discredited. That is really our main problem. We keep beating around the bush and saying Islam is peace and it's a few radicals and terrorism is the problem. That's like saying Blitzkrieg was the problemm in WW2 or Kamikaze or Bushido was the problem. The probelem is the ideology and belief system that drives the enemy, not his tactics.
Signs of weakness like letting Sadr off the hook, calling off assaults on Fallujah, ignoring growing problems in Ramadi and al-Anbar only convey weakness, not strength. An enemy will only surrender when he is convinced he can no longer win. Killing 4 terrorists here, blowing up a few building thre, while our forces face daily attacks is now ay to win. Unless we are prepared to seek and achieve unconditional surrender and the utter defeat of our enemies, we should not enter conflicts, or at the least, we should not be surprised when problems arise. The Gulf War was a complete anaomaly as it was fought entirely in a desert, had a massive arab coalition, and invovled a much larger US force.
The corrorlary, is that we need a much larger force to accomplish our objectives. 150K is not going to cut it and never was. In WW2, to fight the enemy of that time, more than 10% of the population was mobilized and under arms, over 100 divisions fought in Europe and the Pacific. Arms production was the greatest that any nation has ever seen. Now I'm not saying we need a draft, although we may well might. But for Bush to not have have pushed for a massive military increase and to have bought into Runsfeld's light and quick strategy, was a grave error. We have 10 divisions in the army, we should have at least 20. Our navy has been shrunk. The AF is growing smaller and focus being put on high tech things like the f22 and the f35 that are virtually useless in places like Iraq and Afghanistan. The size of the military is a whole nother topic, but Bush could have called for massive expansions and he would have got them. That he didn't is on him.
2. Japan is an island. Once it surrendered and we took control, there no worry of outside forces coming across the border a ala Oraq, or Vietnam for that matter. Same with Germany, they were 100% surrounded by allied forces. They had no allies or supporters on their borders funnelling weaponds and support and fighters. There was no USSR/PRC as in Nam or Iran/Syria like we have now.
3. Germany and Japan were both modern societies, what would be termed 1st world. Germany prewar was arguably more modern and more technologically advanced than the US, certainly there military was. They had experience with more than a deacde of Weimar democracy and civil society. Japan wsa also 100% homogenous. As was Germany, for the most part(especially after they killed most of their Jews). There was no sunni/shiite/kurd tension, 3 major groups all in conflict, one minority group tha had dominated for 80 years being usurped by the majority they had oppressed. It's much easier to deal with homogeneous societies and nations that are already coherent, rather than those that have but 80 years of history and were basically created by a few British gents over tea in Cairo.
4. Iraq is a country that knew nothing but 80+ years of bloodshed, of coups, dictatorships, revolts, massacres, countercoups, sectraian strife, etc... From King Faisal to Qasem to Aref to Saddam, it was nothing but Sunni strongmen ruling with an iron fist. Same with just about every other arab country(except Syria where Alawite strongmen have ruled with an iron fist). Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, , all very similar. To think that tearing down that power structure and empowering the hated Shiites would just be accepted without a fight was very naive. Especially with a Shiite power on the border who'd yearned for decades to takes down Saddam and was on the cusp of their long sought dream of regional domination.
5. Our ocmplete inability and unwillingness to confront Iran and Syria has proved disastrous, to the point where reports have us crawling on our knees to them to bail us out. We've known for years that Iran was behind many of the IEDs, was funding and training the Mahdi Armey, that its MOIS and Pasdaran Quds forces are heavily invovlved, and we;ve done nothing, never publically called them on it other than meaningless phrases from Rice and Abizaid taht htey've been "unhelpful". Deeds not words matter. What Iran has taken is that we are weak and unable or unwilling to confront them, or both. Just sitting back and letting them openly support the enemy, much like the USSR and PRC did in Nam, has cost us dearly.
The main point is that stability is the key before you can have democracy. In countries like South Korea, Taiwan, the Phillipines, Singapore and elsewhere we supported strong men at first that brought about democracy over time. If we had insisted on it from the beginning when society wasn't developed enough to handle it, it would have been a disaster.
There's more. Unfortunately, at this point, especially with Dems in control, in too late to really do much about it. The best strategy now would be to pull out to the kurdish and desert areas, focus on the border areas and securing the flow of oil, and let the sunnis and shiites finally settle this since we have been unable or unwilling to. The shiites will win and we should focus on how to deal with that new reality, and how to prevent Oran from dominating the region. The administration has been rather lax in that areas as well, though. They can't even get a weak UN resolution tabled and our attemots at diplomacy have become farcical. Iran is laughing at us, as is most of the world. Absent something big happening, the next few years will be very interesting.
in 1789, 1812, 1863, 1877, and so on. I never was naive to think that Iraq would be Connecticut now, just as the US or even Connecticut wasn't
in 1792.
And as to Palestine, wait till the 2nd and 3rd election cycles. i have seen a lot of interviews with Palestinian business owners that are going to vote for candidates that don't start wars that get their shops bombed.
Leon, "Rome wasn't built in a day." - Sam Cooke
http://gamecock.townhall.com and www.race42008.com
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan

I agree with your analysis, however it begs the question, what should we do now? I'm all for abandoning the concept that we must leave a democratic Iraq, modeled on our idea of freedom. But what we obviously need is a stable Iraq. How do we get that? If we kill Sadr and those like him who do we replace them with? How? Can any muslim nation be peaceful and pro western?