Poll Review
By Erick Posted in Elections — Comments (20) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll ("ODP") is out. It is here in PDF. While liberals have a deep distrust of Fox News, it's polling is very reputable and has, in the past, not been too favorable to Bush. In fact, the ODP uses a very impressive sampling model that does not factor in party affiliation, but does break the country down into regions of urban, suburban, and rural areas making sure to survey each. The theory is that Republican voters are likely to live in Republican neighborhoods and vice versa with Democrats. It actually works pretty well and is similar to the polling Stan Greenberg and James Carville do in that respect. Another great thing the ODP does is only count Ralph Nader only when he is on the ballot in a particular state, or the issue is still not resolved in the surveyed state.
All of that said, the ODP has the President ahead 49-42-2 and 48-43 with Nader not added at all. What is most interesting in the polling are the internals. Of Bush's supporters, 81% say their vote is for Bush with only 15% saying their vote is against Kerry. On Kerry's side, 56% are for Kerry and 37% are against Bush. Also, 67% say Kerry is a liberal and 74% say Bush is a conservative. Considering most Americans consider themselves a moderate or conservative, that is probably a plus for Bush. What truly stands out, however, are the war questions.
Read on . . .
In the poll, 21% of the respondents tie between the economy and war on terror being the most important issue. Iraq is second at 15%. While Bush trails Kerry 43-46 on handling the economy (the margin of error is 3%), the President leads Kerry by 15% on the issue of the war on terror and 9% on Iraq. Given that, one of the most interesting questions asked was "Given the unrest in the world, how concerned would you be about changing presidents at this time?" 66% said they were very concerned or somewhat concerned. That was 50% of Democrats, 86% of Republicans, and 63% of Independents. While we can argue over whether the Independents are concerned and, therefore, want to replace Bush, looking at the Dem to Rep handling of the question, it seems clear that a large portion of the "respondents" treated the question as a "Are you concerned changing leadership would be a troublesome thing at this time" type question.
Where the poll got interesting was on the war. 69% said the war on terror was a real war as opposed to a figurative war. The Republicans were most likely to feel that way at 87% and the Democrats least likely to feel that way at 56%. Independents were at 65%. Interestingly, this quesiton really captures the 9/11 mentality, I think. When asked if the war was being waged too aggressively, not aggressively enough, or just right, surprisingly 32% said not aggressively enough with 35% saying just right. Only 25% thought it was being waged too aggressively. When asked which candidate would "more aggressively fight the war on terrorism," 61% said George Bush and only 25% said John Kerry.
The question in the poll that stood out was "do you think it is more important to win the war in Iraq or end the war in Iraq?" 46% said win and 46% said end. Republicans at 69% said win and only 23% of Democrats said win. Among Independents, 46% said win and 45% said end.
All in all, the internals of the polls are strong for Bush. If nothing else, 52% of Indepenents and 79% of Republicans think Bush will win the election. 19% of Independents and 62% of Kerry supporters think Kerry will win. If nothing changes dramatically for Kerry in the next few days, his support will dwindle and "following the leader" syndrome will set in.
Update [2004-10-19 14:23:6 by Erick]: ABC News/WaPo has Bush up 5% to 51-46.
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It's good news that the horserace polls have broken in the president's favor, but what about the state by state polls that show a close race? A University of Cincinnati poll out today has Kerry ahead by two points in Ohio and recent polls also show Florida a toss-up. If Bush is ahead nationally, why is he not ahead in these two states also? He probably cannot be elected without winning both.
It is telling that the President is travelling to places where he is on offense and Kerry seems to be shoring up his base. Also revealing is how shrill Kerry is sounding, scaring people about social security and a potential draft. He sounds like a desperate man. That leads me to believe that the president probably is ahead in Ohio and Florida as well, despite what these state polls are saying. But the national polls are more favorable to the president than the state polls and the latter is what will decide the election.
Jay,
Jim Geraghty thought the same thing, but Gerry Daly pointed out to him that
Among likely voters, they have run that poll 7 times this year starting in July. Bush has scored 43%, 43%, 43%, 47%, 46%, 47% and 49% in them, in order. Kerry has scored 44%, 47%, 44%, 43%, 42% 45% and 42%. That is a very stable poll, in my estimation.
If we go back earlier and look at the registered voter results they had from February through August, they had Bush ranging from 40 to 47 in 8 surveys -- with the result falling between 40 and 43 in 7 of the 8. For Kerry, his values ranged from 40-46, with 7 of the 8 falling between 40 and 42.
Gerry and I assert that this is relatively stable.
The state polls always lag the national polls for a couple of days. It is a lot easier to do a national poll than a state poll (from what I'm told though have no personal knowledge of) because there is a larger poll to select from in a national poll and most of the same credible national polling firms are doing both and give priority to the national polls.
As an aside, I think the latest "Ohio Poll" is not accurate.
Indeed the Univ. of Ohio poll is next to worthless. Any poll that shows Kerry up 56 to 26 (!) with independents and 88 to 7 wih Democrats yet only ahead by two points in the horse race is just simply screwy. Plus, if you're running a five-day sample of only 757 likely voters, you're not getting a good sampling result. Add to that a massive swing from last month's poll and the fact that they could only find 75 independent voters and you have a recipe for a poll that says very little.
Fox has Bush up 5 in Ohio, and while I don't think that's terrifically accurate, it has got to be a lot closer than the Ohio Poll results.
Today you have polls with Kerry ahead (Dem Corps), tied (Zogby), and with Bush ahead (WP, Fox).
You can pick whatever you want!
Democracy Core is a Democrat group. Same with Public Opinion Strategies on the R side -- they always paint the rosiest picture for their guy.
Zogby has historically undercounted Republicans. He did it in 2000 and 2002. The others waver back and forth, but are more independent.
WP and Fox got it wrong (both predicted Bush beating Gore in the pop vote).
I have no idea who is ahead. The polls are all over.
Zogby's state polls just came out and they have Kerry winning in OH.
We'll see in 2 weeks.
Zogby had Gore's vote right in 2000, but undercounted Bush's vote. That he got it better than anyone is a bit of a self serving urban legend created by Zogby himself.
Mason-Dixon has the best track record out there right now.
the basic question, who wins (in this case the pop vote).
Zogby got it right and WP and Fox got it wrong.
They predict numbers. Specifically, they predict numbers for each person with a margin of error attached. For example, if WaPo says the race is 51-45 then they are predicting Bush = 51, Kerry = 45 each with a margin of error. They are not predicting a Bush win or a margin of 6 between the two.
I don't know the results from the last election cycle so I won't comment on which poll did the best. But remember what the polls are predicting and what they aren't.
or scratch that we should pay attention to Zogby? Or is that stopwatch still running?
Help clarify something for me. Are you saying that you don't care if the pollster is 20 points off as long as they have the right winner?
well, maybe - he looks good when you look at 2000 .... but my recollection is he was lousy in 2002.
I know, different races, but isn't the basic methodology supposed to be the same?
In 2002, it seems what Zogby missed was that, for a lot of voters, 9/11 did change things.
While I don't know it to be a fact, I suspect Zogby's using 2000 demographics in his polling this year - which means that, unless we're still the same nation as we were in 2000, his results are going to be skewed.
Zogby applies an artificial partisan balance to "adjust" his figures - meaning that the Zogby poll's results are skewed towards Kerry by a significant degree.
Despite national polls that have Bush slightly ahead, I don't see how he does it in the EC. I said months ago that you only have to watch OH and FL. Three recent polls put Kerry ahead in OH and one (FOX) has Bush ahead.
Here are some numbers. If no states change from 2000, it looks like this:
Bush 278, Kerry 260
Wisconsin only matters if Bush loses OH, and WI has silently slipped back into Kerry's column.
If Ohio switches to Dem:
Kerry 280, Bush 258
But if Bush does pick up WI, less OH:
Kerry 270, Bush 268 (Unbearably close, Electors will be sequestered for 6 weeks.)
And that assumes Bush will hold on to NH, which most polls show him behind.
The truth is, Bush has yet to pick up a single blue state from 2000.
Fox had Bush winning in OH. But that may not be so good.
Here's why:
To jsmdlawyer- Isn't there a posting rule about using foul language? You do nothing to further our cause when you use language like this.
I agree that things look bad, but Dubya isn't done yet.
Not only are you too stupid to hide it, but you manage to violate a posting rule to boot. Hasta on this comment, baby.
I take those Fox/Opinion Dynamics polls with a grain of salt - they tend to be a bit more volitile than most other polls.
That being said, after looking at the results, I think they could be onto something with this one. The next ABC/WaPo poll has Bush up 51-46, so I wouldn't be surprised if a 5 point lead is the right figure.