Redstate

Kerry 298

Bush 231

Oil is below $50 a barrell, traders are betting on Kerry

You know the thoughts of millions -- nay, billions -- of individuals, and can sense their motivations?

Stop posting on this thread and save humanity! The Earth needs you now!!

but I am impressed you didn't feel that you all had to be glass-half-full for Bush.

It depends on what you think of "trends" really... it's obviously too close to call... which is of course when it's fun to call.

I'm afraid if I did predict I'd just be playing the expectations game... you know... don't forget to go vote on Wednesday kind of stuff.

Oil traders are betting on Kerry? You base that on what exactly?  I think the realization that the election is almost over (no matter who wins) and the realization that problems in Nigeria will not have an impact on oil exports is the more likely reason for the drop in oil prices.

By the way you may want to try spell check next time.

I went to RCP, looked at the polls, went with my gut, and filled in the Electoral College Calculator. That spit out the EC vote I predicted.

Then I guessed at the popular vote. I figured that it would be a cold day in Florida before another president would win the popular vote but lose the EC vote.  So I put Kerry up by 3 percent, leaving 3 percent for Nader, Badnarik, and the other potential spoilers.

Turnout was just random, probably too high.

Senate: Thune, DeMint, Martinez.

Oil trades on supply and demand or speculation about either. Oil traders don't have political preferences, they like to make money.

Oil reserves jumped dramatically last week which means the markets perceive sufficient supply, thus the decline in crude of a little over 10%.

I would suggest you go to Tradesport.com or the marketbased indicators at Real Clear Politics to see how market based indicators where participants actually risk their capital on the election results are trading.

Lastly, if you really belive what you wrote and actually posses any investment capital I pray you have hired a professional to advise you as your comments about oil suggest you are at best an investment novice and at worst an investment idiot.

When the Revolution comes, you will be spared.

Kerry 279

Bush 259

Kerry 49.7%

Bush 48%

Futures prices, like stock prices, depend on certainty.  Certainty of the future, to include world stability.  If anyone can explain how a Kerry presidency will increase certainty in the world, I'll buy you a donut.

The world won't know what Kerry stands for until he takes a poll.  Bush, love 'em or hate 'em, he's pretty darn certain.  

I hope it's the Socks with Sandals Revolution. I'll pass that one up!

I talked to a staunch Democrat today and she was resigned to a Bush victory. Ho-hum.

272-266

i could be wrong, though.

305-233 in EC.

A southern sweep as the GOP wins NC, SC, GA, and FL Senate seats.

Pete Coors and Coburn pull it out in Colorado and Oklahoma.

And best of all, Tom "Puff" Daschele will be unemployed tomorrow night.

State flips:

OH and NH turn Democrat,  IA, NM and HI turn Republican.

I think, for reasons I've given before, it's a Bush blowout.  

344 to whatever that leaves.  

Bush wins OH, FL, MI, MN, WI, IA, NM, and PA.

Loses NJ, HI, NH.

PV: who cares, but I'd say 52-47, like Cheney predicted.  Point is, I believe many states will be close, but I believe they will break for Bush.  If many states are close, the national PV is close, but Bush wins the states.

No, I've not drunk any Kool-Aid lately.

The only prediction I can make is:  there will be an election tomorrow.

Since part of my prediction is close results in most states that will break for Bush, my prediction comes with the caveat that the imminent massive voter fraud will only result in making it closer than it would otherwise be (vis a vis Florida 2000) or be completely tossed in the courts.  

If Kerry's Lawyer Brigade succeeds in getting the frauds upheld, Kerry could easily take OH, FL, MI, PA, or whichever states he picks.

HOWEVER...   I think Bush wins enough states that Kerry's Lawyer Brigade will not be able to thwart the will of the people in enough of them to swing it into a Kerry victory.

So BUSH STILL WINS (even if it results in a 269-269 EC tie and it is sent to the House of Reps where Bush wins 35-40 state delegations.  God Bless the Framers)

Bush 327/50.2%

Kerry 211/47.8%

Bush picks up Pennsylvannia and the upper Midwest except Michigan. He also takes New Mexico in addition to holding all the states from 2000 (including FL) except for NH. New Hampshire is Kerry's sole pickup from the 2000 red states.

315 - 223

The U.S. electoral map will be a sea of Republican red, interrupted only by Democrat blue on the West Coast, New England, in some of the Rust Belt and the Upper Midwest. I don't think Maine or Nebraska will split their votes and I don't think the vote-splitting referendum in Colorado will pass. Kerry states will be:

Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Maine, the District of Columbia (yeah, I know it's not a state, but despite that it has three electoral votes), Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey. This means Bush will win 296 electoral votes compared to Kerry's 242.

10,000 lawyers can cause an awful lot of harm...

Not literally, but in his predictions for tomorrow. I think Bush takes Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico, while losing only New Hampshire. I live in PA and as much as I'd like to tell you I think he can win here.... he can't.

Won't matter. Once Ohio goes up on the board for the good guys we won't need PA anyway

Kerry wins Michigan, Minnesosta, Pennyslvania, New Hampshire, Hawaii.

Bush wins Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio.

Plus perhaps a single elector from Maine's Second District, which would make it 297-241.

As for the Senate, David Hogberg already filed my opinion at spectator.org. He must have been channeling me.

Seriously, agree on every one. Think we hold Murkowski and win Thune, Martinez, DeMint, Burr, Vitter, Coburn. Lose Coors and whoever that fellow is in Illinois. (What a horror that is.)

I think a key defining feature in this race is the success of Ken Jennings on Jeopardy. Ken, from reddest-state Utah, represents the best of the opportunity society, combining smarts, experience, and family values to push through a conservative agenda on an important gameshow. He's no Eminem.

Amusingly enough, it appears Ken will pass the all-time winnings record for a gameshow contestant on tomorrow's Jeopardy. Which will be pre-empted by election coverage.

Hey, it's as logical as the Redskins homegame theory.

I say Bush, 296-242. All states the same as in 2000, except for the following:

Kerry wins New Hampshire.

Bush wins Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico.

My prediction is if every legal voter is counted once Bush will win. If voters voted based on shared values he'd win in a landslide.  

I hope fraudulent voters go to jail, pay fines, and they are not allowed to vote in another election.

I hope a system is devised that will allow a voter to be registered at only one address.

I hope there is a clear winner and voters give lawyers and foreign observers the bird.

Stigma will be placed on Americans who think Bush is a greater enemy than Bin Laden. Moore will finally feel shame.

McCauliffe is fired and replaced by someone like Lieberman or Bayh....actually almost anyone else.

and as to the margin of victory in the EC, take your pick of any of the other pessimistic predictions above.  One reason will be the massive fraud efforts of the dems in FL, PA and OH, which will go largely unremarked and unopposed by republicans, as always.  If put on the spot, republican officials will mouth pious folderol about seeking the good of the nation, passing over in silence the fact that the USA will have become a banana republic like Venezuela, differing not in nature, but merely in the lower level of corruption and intimidation employed.  

Islamists and other evildoers the world over will rejoice.  Limp-wristed Eurofools and Europhiles will celebrate.  Secularist ideologues will wring their hands in delight and anticipation.

And the damage wrought, over the subsequent four years - in terms of foreign policy ineptitude, bogus treaties signed, leftist ideologues appointed to the federal bench and Supreme Court, the acquiescence of the system in its subversion by fraud, and more - will be so massive, so extensive, that....  well, let me just say that a future generation of historians will reflect upon the election of 2004 and wonder how the American public could have gone so wrong.  Will the last patriot left please turn out the lights?

If Vitter (R) doesn't win outright tomorrow (La. has an OPEN primary system) against the three dems, he'll lose in the runoff. Vitter had reached 51% in the polls. before running some really abrasive ads that, along with Breaux, have knocked him back to about 48%.

The sixth circuit court of appeals just overturned previous federal court rulings and will allow GOP poll watchers to be at polling places to challenge voters' registrations in real time.

So Mary Poppins and Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck will have to have that name on their Driver's License and all signatures must match.

A win for the good guys.

276-262 EC vote total.  Same as 2000, except Bush picks up IA, NM, and WI, and loses OH.  

1) US Senate-OK:

Coburn 53

Carson 44

Bilyeu 3

2) US Senate-other:

IL-Obama (D)

GA-Isakson (R)

SC-DeMint (R)

LA-Vitter (R)

OK-Coburn (R)

NC-Burr (R)

FL-Martinez (R)

CO-Salazar (D)

AK-Knowles (D)

SD-Thune (R)

These predictions are in the order of my certainty (i.e. I am most certain about IL and least about SD).  These results put the senate at 54-45-1 and constitutes a +3 for Republicans.

3) US House:

Republicans +3

4) Presidential Election:

Due to the lack of clear information, I do not have enough chutzpah to predict a winner.  I believe these states will switch from 2000:

From R to D:

NH  4

From D to R:

NM  5

WI 10

And these are too close to predict:

OH 20

FL 27

PA 21

MN 10

IA  7

HI  4

That gives me an electoral base of 242-207-89 for Bush-Kerry-Tossup.  That means the President needs 27 EVs to win (tie goes to the President in the House) which can be done many ways but winning FL, OH, or PA is key.  Any two will definitely put him in the White House for 4 more years.

(Cross Posted at Okie's Corner.)

Or, as they say in France, bon chance.  Not a bod prediction.  We'll see how close you came on the flipside.

Cheers -

Going on my gut feeling, it will be :

        BUSH  301

        jfk   237

My prediction is

Bush 272

Kerry 266

71% turnout overall

Carville's head explodes at 10:30 EST

In incumbent elections, either the incumbent or the challenger wins big (note: 3rd party candidates have been left out, and keep in mind as you go back in history, the electoral college gets smaller because there are fewer states):

1996

Clinton 379

Dole 159

1992

Clinton 370

Bush 168

1984

Reagan 525

Mondale 13

1980

Reagan 489

Carter 49

1976

Carter 297

Ford 240

(an exception)

1972

Nixon 520

McGovern 17

1956

Eisenhower 457

Stevenson 73

1948

Truman 303

Dewey 189

1944

Roosevelt 432

Dewey 99

1940

Roosevelt 449

Willkie 82

1936

Roosevelt 523

Landon 8

1932

Roosevelt 472

Hoover 59

1924

Coolidge 382

Davis 136

1916

Wilson 277

Hughes 254

(another exception)

1912

Wilson 435

Taft 8

1904

Roosevelt 336

Parker 140

1900

McKinley 292

Bryan 155

1892

Cleveland 277

Harrison 145

1888

Harrison 233

Cleveland 168

1872

Grant 286

Hendricks 42

1864

Lincoln 212

McClellan 21

(11 Southern states didn't participate)

1840

Harrison 234

Van Buren 60

1832

Jackson 219

Clay 49

1828

Jackson 178

Adams 84

1820

Monroe 231

Adams 1

1812

Madison 128

Clinton 89

1804

Jefferson 162

Pinckney 14

1800

Jefferson 73

Adams 65

(another exception, one where Aaron Burr tied Jefferson in the electoral college at 73)

1792

Washington 132

Adams 77

It looks to be a landslide, so I'm calling Kerry at 311 or more.

I pray for a Bush landslide, but I'm preparing myself for what could be a bad night.  At any rate, if worse comes to worse, we'll still have a good number in Congress to get some obstruction going on.  Oh gosh...the '90s all over again.

*My 2 Scenarios*

1) Same as 2000 except:

Bush picks up New Mexico, Iowa, and Wisconsin

Kerry picks up New Hampshire and Ohio

Bush WINS 275-262-1 (West Virginia RINO Deduction)

2) Same as 2000 except:

Bush picks up New Mexico and Iowa

Kerry picks up New Hampshire and Ohio, holds Wisconsin

Kerry WINS 272-265-1

If the President holds Ohio I'm popping out the champagne.

Also, does anyone have polling data from the same time during the Reagan landslides?  I know Carter probably knew he was going down the tube.  What about Mondale?

sorry, forgot to post where to get fun link on past elections:  http://www.presidentelect.org/

(also wanted to add that in 1800 where adams was incumbent, maybe this should be considered a landslide, too, since jefferson's and burr's sum of electoral votes would have been 146 to adams' 65)

Today I just say: take your little lecture on market-based indicators and go Cheney yourself.

Dixville Notch 2004:

Bush 19

Kerry 7 (gain of 2 from year 2000)

Hart's Location 2004:

Bush 15

Kerry 15 (gain of 2 from year 2000)

Smell of victory getting sweeter and stronger, dude.

I hope you kept didn't bet all your stash at Tradesports, you'll need to buy yourself a bottle tonight.

EV: 300-238

PV: 51-47

Senate -

R: NC, SC, GA, FL, LA, SD

D: IL, OK, WA*, AK

*I previously thought Nethercutt had a high chance of picking up the WA Senate seat, but he never seemed to pick up momentum this fall.  Unless there's a last-minute pro-Bush surge in WA, I don't think he'll pull it out.

And for the record: Jim Moran, "safe" incumbent most likely to lose :).

...for being late with my prediction. Here it is, for what it's worth:

Bush (286): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming.

Kerry (252): California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin.

can you spell landslide?

Electorally speaking, that is.

Hope you saved some of the betting money you lost at Tradesports for a bottle of the strong stuff, dude, you're gonna need it tonight.