Redstate

Same thing in 2000, we were suppose to grab PENN, WISCONSIN, IOWA and then Drudge had early numbers that we were not doing well. Then, we got NONE of these states. I don't think it bodes well for Bush.

relax. You'll be tearing the hair out of your head if you follow things this closely. Chill, exit polls are crap, always have been.

You want to feel confident? Read NRO, the Kerry pollster has admitted defeat :)

time to open that bottle now.

Shark,

I agree that exit polls are unreliable but these kinds of numbers definitely will not put one at ease. Where is the info at nro, do you have a link you can provide.

Thanks.

I went to vote in Denver Colorado today. Everything went well, people were civil and you couldn't tell who was voting for who. I noticed several cars with Kerry bumper stickers on them in the parking lot. I had a Bush Cheney sticker on mine, the only one I saw.

Went in, 1 hour later came out to discover the side drivers window of my Blazer was busted out. Nothing was stolen, but a rather large dark fellow standing nearby said, "nice bumper sticker".

All I can say is that I hope Bush kicks Kerry's arse. Nothing against blacks, as most of my neighbors are black, and many are voting for Bush, but I doubt they are the sort to damage someones property for opposing their candidate.

What is this wreck of a political system coming to? Next election will people be carrying guns? I don't know, but it isn't a far fetched thought, I just might have to start.

I'm not happy...

helping of crow on my plate first thing tomorrow morning, I simply don't see it happening.  The dems will always have a better gotv than the GOP because they do not care about such niceties as the law.  Hence the massive fraud.  And there will always be a large enough percentage of mental defectives in the elctorate to accept the absurd proposition that 9/11 was an anomaly - not because they have actual reasons for so believing, but because they WISH it to be so.  Factor these things together, and the result is a Kerry win.

I'd love to be wrong, more than just about anything.  But while I certainly won't regard Kerry as my president (no commonality of beliefs whatsoever, hence, no basis for respect), we'd all do well to accustom ourselves to the dissonant clash of the phrase, "President Kerry".

Here are some numbers from Tradesports: (as of 2:53 pm)

Bush as President: 57% (+4)

Bush wins Ohio: 56.6% (+4.7)

Bush Wins FLorida: 56.1% (-0.1)

1. Judging from comments on The Corner (and the Mellman article from The Hill that they mentioned) a Bush upset would be a very genuine surprise to many, many people.
   
   
2. Hugh Hewitt makes a very significant point: the exit polls do not account for early and absentee ballots.

I'm envisioning a long, long night. I'm thinking I'll grab a couple of nice imported beers on the way home and curl up for a quiet evening of reading. And hefeweiss. Or lambic. Or ...

I remember getting exit poll numbers at mid-day in 2000 that turned out to be way off.  The one that sticks out is Ohio, which I think was Gore +10 at mid-day.  

Keep in mind, these early exit polls are unreliable, and these specific ones are weighted 3:2 women:men.  If Bush is performing that well in such a sample with that bias, he's probably actually leading in OH, FL, and really close in MI.  Keep heart, keep fighting.  Don't let this one get away.

exit polls said that Gore won...and when compared against INTENDED votes, the exit polls were accurate.

But what is happening here is not accountable to the Dem's GOTV effort.   These are early numbers...people who showed up early on their own to vote.  GOTV is all about making sure that ALL of your voters get to the polls, and that effort doesn't really kick off until later in the day.  (That's why you see the "observers" writing names down of voters....those lists will be compared against GOTV lists, and the people who haven't voted yet will be called, offered rides, etc....)

Drudge reports that the midday numbers based on a sample that is 59% womwen and 41% men.

Drudge is now reporting this is the ratio of the early exit polls... If this is the case and Kerry is only barely ahead then that is a good thing for the Bush team.  

Republicans have learned how to GOTV too. This isn't 2000 where you had one side mobilized and the other not. 2002 elections showed that Republicans learned the lesson well. So I don't automatically assume that Dems GOTV efforts are this gigantic advantage that they have. We'll see...

If Bush is this competetive in a sample skewed to Kerry, things can only get better.

We know how the media twists things so they no longer bear any semblance to reality.  

If you hear Dem complaints about voter suppression, you know things are going well for the GOP.

If you hear things about a Kerry lead in Exit polls, assume this is another media trick, until overwhelming evidence convinces you otherwise.

It is quite likely that Bush votes haven't been counted yet.  None of these samples are random.  I suspect it is easier for Dems to get the lead in these early exits.  People who actually work for a living likely vote later in the day.

...And we all know when people that work for a living vote... Republicans win!

Let's not forget that the republicans are still at work. Most are not going to vote until at least 5:00.

this are the latest tradesports 'bid' numbers (4:05pm DC time):

bush 42.1

kerry 57.0

Very clever.

The GOP can still pull this out, if their GOTV effort is up to the task.

The big question mark here is the likely voters vs registered voters equation.  Bush still leads in the pre-election likely voter numbers, but lags in registered voters.  

And, if the exit poll numbers are accurate, the GOP now has to do a better job (probably a much better job) than the Dems at getting their voters to the polls.  

THE FRICKING POLLS AREN'T EVEN CLOSED YET. And they're trying to screw with everyone releasing these garbage polls.

Everyone, go vote. Get your friends and neighbors to vote. Don't get happy or sad at these polls. Just vote, and when they get actual vote counts, we'll be happy.

Polls.....crap

I think the early voting was a little more evenly matched, Rep-to-Dem, but the end of day push will be mainly Bush supporters.  I am seeing major amounts of blue Rep wrist bands on the right hands of many voters.  Don't worry about Florida, it's Bush's. My prediction is 53-45 with 2 to others. Don't worry, be happy.

This is likely related to the media pumping the bogus exit polling data.  I'm sure when more reliable numbers come in, that those who bought the Kerry contract will be sorry.

Quit blogging for a bit and MAKE SOME PHONE CALLS!  

The "W" supporters LONG ago learned NOT TO TRUST THE MSM...so why are you now?

If people DON'T vote because they think it is over then Kerry WILL win...BUT IF PEOPLE GO AHEAD AND VOTE...then Bush will WIN!!!!

The fricking media has been doing a hit job on Bush since day 1, and now some people are getting disheartened by skewed polls from a bad sample?!?

My lord.

They're trying, even now, to drag Kerry over the finish line.

Don't let it happen people. Exit polls are crap.

polls should be band....just a way for bias media to manipulate  emotions...claim to be insightful information. Its worth a crap. I've spent too many hours looking at them and it was the biggest waste of time. Read the in internals and you can see the "massaging" done on the numbers. Who in the world to they talk to anyways?

Everyone should just calm down and do the math. It's a 59/41 sample right? Unweighted and unfiltered so what to do? Well we know that women are 52% of the electorate and men are 48% of the electorate so if we do a little math we come up with a quick and dirty population filter that allows us to adjust the results to reflect demographic reality - and we get some startlingly different numbers, like:

FLORIDA: Kerry up +3 in the exit poll becomes Bush +11 when adjusted to reflect gender demographics.

OHIO: Kerry up +4 in the exit poll becomes Bush +10 when adjusted to reflect gender demographics.

PENN: Kerry up +20 in the exit poll becomes Kerry +6 when adjusted to reflect gender demographics.

WIS: Kerry up +9 in the exit poll becomes Bush +4.5 when adjusted to reflect gender demographics.

IOWA: Kerry and Bush tied in the exit poll becomes Bush +14 when adjusted to reflect gender demographics.

So when you look at it that way, with a massively skewed sample it looks like Kerry is just eeking out a win, but in reality he's getting his ass handed to him.

but living on GMT+1 (Central european time) makes  watching the election equal to pulling an all-nighter. On the other hand, there's hardly any need to import beer to Austria, we have plenty of local weizenbier. But now it's Bockbier season.

Pennsylvania looks to be a loss, but Florida, New Mexico and Nevada are going to Bush. Bush is going to coast to re-election.

I did a quickie analysis of all the states electoral votes as per tradesports at http://www.outcode.com/election.  It tipped to Kerry about mid-afternoon - probably right when Drudge dropped his mis-info.  Anyway, I'm trying to keep that site as unbiased as possible, though when I saw Drudge's stuff, I pretty much wanted to trash it.  It'll get better.

Let me know what you think of the odds analysis!

Michael Zimmerman

mzimmerman@outcode.com

With that rough parsing of the numbers, it looks VERY good for Bush.  

Those who are worried about the election, should read this from a Kerry pollster

http://www.thehill.com/mellman/110204.aspx

Not sure if this link was posted already.

The same calculations consistently showed Bush with pretty much a 292-246 lead for the last seven days until about 3:00 PM today.  Earlier today, it had been trending SLIGHTLY to Bush, but not enough to move the electoral votes.  Then at about 3:00 PM (about the time Drudge unloaded), it shot over to Kerry to where it is approximately now.

1. Harviestoun Brewery's Old Engine Oil (import - Scotland, stout): not bad, but I seem to have lost my taste for stout. A shame, that.
   
   
2. Goose Island's Peres Jacques (domestic micro, "Belgian style ale": trappist-style ale): surprisingly good, probably as good as my usual choice of trappist ale (name escapes me at present) and about two-thirds the price. Might be a smaller bottle, though.
   
   
3. Braurei Weihenstephaner Hefeweissbier (import - Austria?, hefeweissbier): Always excellent, and has yet to leave me disappointed. Mmmm. 12 oz bottle, though. I can't begin to describe how disappointed I am that the liquor store had no pint bottles of Weihenstephaner hefeweiss.

My brain is currently swimming; I imagine my bladder will be soon. I'm still feeling good about a Bush victory, though.

Weihenstephaner is from Bavaria. (to be more specific, just 100 miles from where I grew up in Austria)

And yes, Belgian beer is also very tasty.

But the ones I've liked best were either Belgian or German/Austrian/Bavarian/whatever (please pardon my tenuous grasp of geography). As near as I can tell, all the best beers come from monks.