The nightmare scenario
By trevino Posted in Elections — Comments (9) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Here's the situation:
There are a handful of states still theoretically undecided:
Iowa
Nevada
New Mexico
Ohio
Wisconsin
The President can lose all of these except Ohio and still win the election. This result will yield a 269-269 EV tie, and throw the election to the House, where Republican delegations will give him four more years. Or the President could win all of these except Ohio and win 276-262. The more probable result at this hour is that Iowa and New Mexico -- Gore states in 2000 -- will squeak into the Bush column, while Nevada and Wisconsin will go for Kerry.
De facto bottom line: neither candidate can win without Ohio.
There is reportedly roughly a 100,000 vote gap between the President and Kerry in Ohio. (I'm not seeing that in the official count, but it's what's being said on the networks.) The Kerry camp is claiming roughly a quarter-million provisional ballots still outstanding, which won't be counted for eleven days. So, in parachute the Dem lawyers to litigate their way out of the general national rejection of them and their agenda.
No Kerry concession tonight, folks. No definitive Bush victory tonight. Make no mistake: for the past four years, the Democrats have mentally fought and re-fought the Florida debacle over and over and over again. Now they'll get their second chance -- in Ohio. The chances that the provisional ballots in Ohio will change the electoral outcome are slim; the evidence that the Ohio Secretary of State will not fairly count them is nonexistent. No matter. The Kerry campaign is absolutely prepared to plunge the nation into a Florida-style trauma again. Watch and wait. It has already begun.
Update [2004-11-3 2:33:35 by trevino]:
Things move fast. Now Nevada has a Bush lead, and Wisconsin is way too close to call. All bets off.
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The nightmare scenario 9 Comments (0 topical, 9 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
And the people of this country should be outraged that the Kerry campaign is more that willing to put the country through the trauma of 2000 again.
Disgusting. Just when you think the Democrats cannot sink any lower they prove you wrong...
Count the votes. The odds are slim, but they are there. Count the votes. Why not? We now know that Bush needs Ohio, and I think he's going to win by over a 100k, but count the votes. Its worth it to win and win clean.
"""Earlier on Tuesday, Kerry spokeswoman Jen Palmieri told FOX News that the Kerry ground force in Ohio had set a new benchmark for any political party. In that state alone, they had 3,200 lawyers and paralegals on standby. Meanwhile, 27,843 volunteers were on standby statewide, 2,829 out-of-staters were in Ohio driving voters to the polls and the campaign had 270 full-time paid staffers in Ohio, as compared with 40 for Gore four years ago."""
I don't see Wisconsin going for Bush, but Nevada appears to be.
Jerks at the networks must really want the 269-269 scenario. They were quick enough to call Ohio, but they refuse to call New Mexico despite Bush's large (and expanding)lead.
If Michael Barone is not sure, that is good enough for me. He was the one who called Ohio with 83% reporting, so I'll extend some leeway. If there is any dirty tricks, it is just to get us to watch longer.
CNN Calls Wisconsin and Michigan for Kerry even though both have many precincts out and the race is very close in both, yet they fail to call Ohio even though virtually every precinct has been counted and Bush has a commanding lead. Regardless of the fact the Dems have decided to make it an attorney fight in Ohio, theys hould call the damn state the way the raw numbers indicate.
How nice of them to yet again cherry pick the states just to prop up thier obvious choice for POResident, screw what Americans think!
Coburn + DeMint + Bush is a clean haul for Red State endorsees.