Poll-Watching
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in Elections — Comments (3) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Two new polls have come out, both of which deserve attention.
The first poll is a Harris survey indicating a virtual dead heat among likely voters, but placing Kerry ahead of Bush by a margin of 48% to 47%. It should be noted--as I've noted before--that polls like this one suffer from the fact that they were partially conducted over a weekend. Democrats stay home in disproportionately higher numbers over a weekend when compared to Republicans--who go out more often, and therefore are not able to answer phone calls at their homes. To avoid this problem, pollsters should really focus their attentions on weeknights in order to get the most accurate results--and I do not understand why they haven't done so. Additionally, this poll appears to be an outlier--with other polls still showing a significant Bush lead.
That having been said, the Harris survey may do Republicans a favor by throwing a scare into them, and causing them to realize that the election is by no means over. There is no surer guard against overconfidence, after all.
By contrast, this poll--indicating a dead heat in traditionally Democratic Minnesota--may do wonders for Republican overconfidence. Especially when one considers that it was conducted over a weekend as well.
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Poll-Watching 3 Comments (0 topical, 3 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
"Democrats stay home in disproportionately higher numbers over a weekend when compared to Republicans--who go out more often, and therefore are not able to answer phone calls at their homes. "
I've never heard of that theory before.
I've heard the "dems stay home" theory to explain why Fridays or weekends are skewed towards the democrates. Not so sure that's accurate though. There are so many polls that show Bush ahead and pulling away that I tend to think this is a flawed poll, or at least unintentionally biased for some reason. But even if this is a true theory, so be it. I am still predicting a 54%+ victory. I'm no one special to know, mind you. I just see how bad Kerry is campaigning, and I have believe he's a sinking ship...of fools.
Here is another poll by Mason-Dixon that was published in the St. Paul Pioneer-Press that has Bush leading Kerry 46-45 in Minnesota: http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/news/politics/9674445.htm
Minnesota has been trending Republican since 1998, when the GOP became the majority in the State House of Representatives for the first time since 1986. Since then, there have been further indications this trend has intensified. In 2000, Bush lost to Gore by 2 points. Two years, in 2002, a watershed occurred as the GOP decimated the DFL by: winning four of the five statewide offices including the governorship; bringing the Congressional delegation to parity, 4-4; electing Norm Coleman over the Democratic dinosaur Walter Mondale to be one of its U.S. Senators; expanding its majority in the State House from 71 to 82 (out of 134); and, nearly wresting control of the State Senate from the Democrats by closing their majority from 12 (39-27) to 4 (34-31). I agree that Republicans should not become overly confident that Bush will win and should thus continue to work hard toward that goal. But, the marked shift in voting patterns away from the DFL and toward the GOP in the state is not a fluke, it's legitimate. To paraphrase the '80s Oldsmobile commercial: "This is not your father's Minnesota."