Redstate

By Adam C Posted in Elections — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Contrary to the best efforts of conspiracy theorists across the country, the Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004
prepared by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International or the National Election Pool (NEP), which was just released to the public, finds that

Exit polls do not support the allegations of fraud due to rigging of voting equipment.

This report validates most of the arguments that Republicans and statisticians made about why the exit polls were incorrect. It also laid bare the whining of the far left that cannot let the election result stand. Less exciting than the standard conspiracies, it looks like sampling error and other factors lead to more Kerry voters being interviewed and less Bush supporters. More from the report below.

The introduction begin:

On November 2, 2004, the Election System created by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool (NEP) produced election estimates and exit poll data for analysis in 120 races in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. In addition, between January and March 2004, Edison and Mitofsky conducted exit polls for 23 Democratic Primaries and Caucuses. For every election, the system delivered on its main goals: there were no incorrect NEP winner projections, and the exit poll data produced on election day were used on-air and in print by the six members of the NEP (AP, ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX and NBC) as well as several dozen media organizations who subscribed to that data. However, the estimates produced by the exit poll data on November 2nd were not as accurate as we have produced with previous exit polls.
Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There have been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican. While the size of the average exit poll error has varied, it was higher in 2004 than in previous years for which we have data. This report measures the errors in the exit poll estimates and attempts to identify the factors that contributed to these errors.

I don't intend on reading the whole 77 page report, but here are a few more tidbits:

The exit poll estimates in the 2004 general election overstated John Kerry's share of the vote nationally and in many states. There were 26 states in which the estimates produced by the exit poll data overstated the vote for John Kerry by more than one standard error, and there were four states in which the exit poll estimates overstated the vote for George W. Bush by more than one standard error. The inaccuracies in the exit poll estimates were not due to the sample selection of the polling locations at which the exit polls were conducted. We have not discovered any systematic problem in how the exit poll data were collected and processed. Exit polls do not support the allegations of fraud due to rigging of voting equipment.

And further...

It is difficult to pinpoint precisely the reasons that, in general, Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polls than Bush voters. There were certainly motivational factors that are impossible to quantify, but which led to Kerry voters being less likely than Bush voters to refuse to take the survey. In addition there are interactions between respondents and interviewers that can contribute to differential non-response rates. We can identify some factors that appear to have contributed, even in a small way, to the discrepancy. These include:





Distance restrictions imposed upon our interviewers by election officials at the state and local level



Weather conditions which lowered completion rates at certain polling locations



Multiple precincts voting at the same location as the precinct in our sample



Polling locations with a large number of total voters where a smaller portion of voters was selected to be asked to fill out questionnaires



Interviewer characteristics such as age, which were more often related to precinct error this year than in past elections We plan further analysis on the following factors:



Interviewer training and election day procedures



Interviewing rate calculations



Interviewer characteristics



Precinct characteristics * Questionnaire length and design We also suggest the following changes for future exit polls:



Working to improve cooperation with state and local election officials Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System page 5 January 19, 2005



Improvements in interviewing training procedures



Changes in our procedures for hiring, recruiting and monitoring interviewers



Even with these improvements, differences in response rates between Democratic and Republican voters may still occur in future elections. However, we believe that these steps will help to minimize the discrepancies.

Finally,

It is also important to note that the exit poll estimates did not lead to a single incorrect NEP winner projection on election night. The Election Night System does not rely solely on exit polls in its computations and estimates. After voting is completed, reported vote totals are entered into the system. Edison/Mitofsky and the NEP members do not project the outcome of close races until a significant number of actual votes are counted.

As in past elections, the final exit poll data used for analysis in 2004 was adjusted to match the actual vote returns by geographic region within each state. Thus, the discrepancy due to differing response rates was minimized and did not significantly affect the analysis of the vote. The exit polls reliably describe the composition of the electorate and how certain demographic subgroups voted.

So the debate about the Hispanic vote share going to the President is also moot. He received substantial increase in the percentage of the Hispanic vote.

(Hat Tip: DemFromCT at DailyKos)