Senate 2006: National Journal Update - October
By Adam C2 Posted in 2006 — Comments (9) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
First, it seems many newcomers have checked out RedState recently. I highly encourage you to read our posting rules, mission statement, and this etiquette diary to get your bearings on the scoop-format and RedState in general.
On to the Senate. Due to real world commitments, I haven't done a round-up of the Senate in many months. And again, I don't have the time to analyze and present each major race right now. Fortunately, the National Journal's Chuck Todd (subscription required) has his latest rankings out on the Senate races. They are below the fold with some commentary.
Here are my commentless rankings.
Most likely to change from D to R:
1. Minnesota (Open)
2. Maryland (Open)
3. New Jersey (Open if Corzine wins for GOV)
4. Washington (Cantwell)
5. Michigan (Stabenow)
6. Florida (Nelson)
7. Nebraska (Nelson)
8. West Virginia (Byrd)
Most likely to change from R to D:
1. Pennsylvania (Santorum)
2. Ohio (DeWine)
3. Rhode Island (Chafee)
4. Missouri (Talent)
5. Tennessee (Open)
6. Montana (Burns)
7. Arizona (Kyl)
8. Mississippi (Open if Lott retires, if not forget about MS)
Mr. Todd and I obviously disagree on parts of the ordering of vulnerability of seats. Considering the buzz around 2006, Rs are actually in better shape than the conventional wisdom has them. Only one incumbent lost in 2004 (Daschle) and Rs are only defending one open seat so far (TN). Most races are in states carried by the President. Rs lucked out by having concensus strong candidates in the 3 open seats at the top of the list (MD, NJ, and MN). Rs missed several opportunities in friendly states due to recruitment problems. Nevertheless, the line-up actually looks like a wash overall. If the races were today, PA and MN would flip sides and MD would be close. No other changes. But we have a year to go and if the tide flows strongly one way or the other, a +4 for either side is not unreasonable.
Right now, I predict a -1 to +1 movement if nothing changes.
From Chuck Todd ranked by most likely to switch parties. For copyright purposes, only the first 10 races are shown here:
1. PENNSYLVANIA
Rick Santorum (R)
Last ranking: 1
With rumors of a big third quarter in fundraising circulating, Democrat Bob Casey Jr.'s position as front-runner to knock off Santorum shouldn't change a bit. There was an interesting trivia question bandied about the office the other day: Who was the last elected incumbent senator to be behind double-digits at any point in the cycle and still win?We could only come up with Jesse Helms in his 1984 race against Jim Hunt. Then again, Pennsylvania saw one of the greatest unelected incumbent comebacks in history: appointed Sen. Harris Wofford's come-from-behind victory over Republican Dick Thornburgh.
Still, incumbents down double-digits usually don't win: ask Al D'Amato, Spencer Abraham and Tim Hutchinson, to name a few.
2. RHODE ISLAND
Lincoln Chafee (R)
Last ranking: 2
No one can say Senate Republicans aren't doing everything in their power to help Chafee. This week's ad buy attacking Steve Laffey shows the NRSC believes the challenger can't win a general against potential Democratic nominee Sheldon Whitehouse.
Lucky for Laffey and the NRSC, Whitehouse may not be a slam dunk for the Democrats. It does seem as if Secretary of State Matt Brown's campaign has lost some of the initial momentum it grabbed earlier this year. These next Federal Election Commission reports could be a real separator between Whitehouse and Brown.
3. MINNESOTA
Open Seat – Mark Dayton (D) is retiring
Last ranking: 3
Slowly but surely, things have gotten slightly better for the Democrats. EMILY's List's early endorsement of Amy Klobuchar over a candidate the group endorsed in 2004, Patty Wetterling, is a valuable signal for national Democrats to send to donors around the country.
While Wetterling has showed no stomach for getting out, there continues to be hope among the Democratic establishment that by the end of the year, when Wetterling's money has dried up, she'll concede. The only worry Democrats have left is potential self-funding trial lawyer Mike Ciresi, who certainly is acting like someone who plans to run.
Will the early EMILY's List endorsement of Klobuchar give him second thoughts? Meanwhile, GOP Rep. Mark Kennedy keeps chugging along, even taking a few press-release shots at his likely general election foe, Klobuchar.
Republicans will feel better about Kennedy if he posts a bigger number than Klobuchar this quarter. Some Republicans were taken aback when Klobuchar reported more cash than Kennedy last quarter.
4. MARYLAND
Open Seat – Paul Sarbanes (D) is retiring
Last ranking: 4
The ever-growing Democratic field combined with the DSCC credit report boondoggle regarding Republican Michael Steele has us tempted to move this seat up a notch. But then we remembered, this is still Maryland and not a swing state like Minnesota. If there is a silver-lining for the Democrats and their gigantic primary field, it's that front-runner Ben Cardin could use the campaign practice before facing Steele.
If we were to bet on which of the Montgomery County Democrats ends up giving Cardin a real run, we'd probably but a dollar on Lise Van Sustern, simply because it's possible EMILY's List may jump in and help her, and being the only woman in a primary of a lot of white men has to be worth a few points.
5. MISSOURI
Jim Talent (R)
Last ranking: 13
If there ever was a race that we expected to be 45-45 between now and next year, it's this one. The state leans slightly Republican but with the breeze and her own following, Democrat Claire McCaskill will be in this until the end. Don't expect either candidate to ever sport more than a two- or three-point lead.
If there ever was an incumbent who was begging for early attack ads from third-party Democratic groups, it's Talent. Despite his multiple statewide campaigns, Talent's a bit undefined, and if Democrats are going to win this seat, they have to define him quickly.
6. MONTANA
Conrad Burns (R)
Last ranking: 6
At some point, we could envision moving this up some but only if John Morrison and not Jon Tester gets out of the primary. As much as we know the liberal blogosphere loves Tester, the reality is that he'll get killed in a general by Burns and the NRSC, which will just paint him as out of the mainstream.
The Pearl Jam fundraising concert, while cute for a good press hit, will not excite the right-leaning Bush voters that any Democrat has to woo in order to win. We can only imagine the direct-mail pieces the GOP could come up with to bury Tester in a general. Morrison is the Democrats' best bet to keep this race competitive.
7. OHIO
Mike DeWine (R)
Last ranking: 17
This campaign is pretty simple: Is DeWine vulnerable because of his party affiliation? Anyone following Ohio politics even at a 30,000-foot level knows the Republican brand is dirt when it comes to state government. The unknown is whether this has become a problem for Republicans on the federal level. If so, then any plausible Democrat will do. If not, then it may take a very good candidate to knock off DeWine.
The other unknown is whether Democrat Paul Hackett of Ohio-02 special election fame is simply a "plausible" candidate or a "very good candidate." Hackett could become a darling of the fundraising community but is his "in your face" style compatible with Ohio? Could it be that some Democrats fear Hackett could blow this and are re-recruiting Rep. Sherrod Brown to reconsider?
8. WASHINGTON
Maria Cantwell (D)
Last ranking: 15
The biggest feather in Dole's recruiting cap is in this state with outgoing SafeCo CEO Mike McGavick's entry into the race. The talk of more Republicans getting in has some D.C. Republicans nervous, but in the end the expectation is that McGavick's campaign and fundraising savvy will overwhelm the ambitions of the other Republicans pondering the race.
9. ARIZONA
Jon Kyl (R)
Last ranking: 12
No one has done more to rebuild the Arizona Democratic Party than ex-Chair Jim Pederson. Now he gets to find out if what he built is worth a darn. The NRSC has done a good job of trying to paint Pederson has a liberal, at least with the local print press corps. But Pederson, an older, balding white male, just doesn't look like a liberal. And his developer-earned money don't necessarily help paint a "liberal" profile. He could give Kyl fits. Still, this is a "breeze" race; we can see how Pederson gets to 47 percent, but he needs help to get to 50 percent plus one.
10. MICHIGAN
Debbie Stabenow (D)
Last ranking: 14
Despite the failure of Republicans to recruit a bigger name, it seems as if Stabenow is going to find herself eventually in a tough race. The drag from the top of the '06 ticket (Gov. Jennifer Granholm sports a mediocre job rating) could be the main culprit of Stabenow's vulnerability. Republican Keith Butler appears to be coalescing the state's Republican establishment around him but still may have a significant primary. This is one of those races that's teetering for us. The ingredients are there for a close race but nothing's popped for the GOP just yet.
Todd's overall 11-20 are:
11. New Jersey (Open?-D)
12. Florida (Nelson-D)
13. Tennessee (Open-R)
14. Nebraska (Nelson-D)
15. West Virginia (Byrd-D)
16. Vermont (Open-I)
17. Mississippi (Lott-R)
18. North Dakota (Conrad-D)
19. Maine (Snowe-R)
20. Virginia (Allen-R)
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Senate 2006: National Journal Update - October 9 Comments (0 topical, 9 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
There is no chance that the GOP can/will lose the seat even if Lott retires (which I believe he will).
Congressmen Chip Pickering and Congressman Roger Wicker would both easily dispatch of former AG Mike Moore or former Gov Ronnie Musgrove.
Mississippi is safely RED
I was at a Bergen County Republicans breakfast last year and Tom Kean, Jr. was the featured speaker. Granted it was not a campaign speech but it left me very underwhelmed. He floundered about without a theme to his remarks. I didn't get the sense that he would be a very strong campaigner. Plus, I think the Republicans "thrown the bums out" strategy in the governor's race may extend down to those with poilitically connected names. I predict a close Corzine win (<5 points) and Menendez as the replacement in the Senate.
Still, incumbents down double-digits usually don't win: ask Al D'Amato, Spencer Abraham and Tim Hutchinson, to name a few.
Spence was UP in the polls against Stabenow for most of the race.
I think Pennsylvania is not as bad as the polls make it seem. I think a lot of Pat Tomney supporters are answering that they are "undecided" but will eventually come back to Santorum. Even taking that into account, Santorum is still behind Casey, but I don't think it is as bad as it could be.
The question is, will Tomney come out and actively support Rick Santorum? That could make a big difference.
I don't think Arizona should be ranked so high. I haven't seen anything to show that the people of Arizona are dissatisfied with Senator Kyl.
On the other hand, Florida should be ranked higher. I know Harris is not the strongest nominee we could put forward, but she has won statewide before, and last I saw, Nelson was still below 50%. I think this race is going to be very close.
I am very curious as how the Miers nomination will affect the Mid-term raaces. I've even posted a short diary on the issue: http://cicero.redstate.org/story/2005/10/4/21447/4796
The gloating from the Left if he loses will be unbearable. It would be their version of Daschle. That Casey Jr claims to be a moderate is meaningless because the Left knows he'll be a reliable liberal vote once in office. In a system of judicial supremacy, what does it matter if one claims to be 'pro-life' when that person will oppose judges who will return the matter to the states where it belongs? What value is there in claiming to be against gay marriage, when one will insist on judges who will impose it on the entire nation?
It'll be sad to see Santorum go, but its likely to happen.
What's going on there? Last I heard, Thompson was "considering" entering the race. Wouldn't that make Wisconson a battleground?
Tommmy Thompson would make WI a top 5 race for us. Of course, it would be another race in a neutral state but it would be a nice recruitment. I doubt he will run, but I do not have any direct information.
I don't think Tennessee is likely at all to change hands. According to the latest poll, the leading GOP candidate, Ed Bryant, is beating Ford by about 10 points. That doesn't take into account the fact that a Gay Marriage Amendment will be on the ballot in '06 (pending a nit-picky ACLU court challenge that could be resolved by now).
New Jersey is way too low. When Corzine wins (sorry but I think it's almost a done deal), Democrats will really be in a bind. Andrews is very strong but not connected like Menendez, and the way Andrews entered the race seems to indicate he doesn't think he will be anointed the Dem candidate.
Kean, Jr. is a very, very strong candidate, better than Steele in MD probably (given his last name and moderate credentials).
My guess right now is that 4 seats change hands, 2 on each side.
I also would not underestimate Laffey, in that he's a more viable general election candidate than is widely thought.