My Virginia predictions
By Chad Dotson Posted in Elections — Comments (69) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Since I know you are all anxious for my predictions on this year's statewide races in Virginia, now is the time to go on the record, I suppose. Before I begin, however, let me mention that you have until midnight to enter the Election Day Prediction Contest. Prize to the winner!
Now, to my predictions:
Let's begin with the race for Governor, since that seems to be the only race that anyone is mildly interested in, and I stress the word "mildly." I don't expect that we'll see very high turnout tomorrow; I suppose that's a shame. I'd like to see high turnout in every race, but only if people want to educate themselves. I see these articles in the Washington Post where Joe or Jane Sixpack is quoted saying they really haven't followed the race and don't know much about the candidates and don't know who they'll vote for....I get sick to my stomach every time I see a quote like that. There is no excuse for not educating yourself about your potential leaders.
But I digress.
Read on for the predictions....
The conventional wisdom is that the Governor's race is a dead-heat, and there is polling evidence to back that up. Most recent polls have been within the margin of error, and everyone expects that this race will be very close, even historically so. Virginia political reporters are gearing up for a long election night.
I'm here to tell you that you will know the name of the next Governor before you go to bed (unless you are my one-year-old son, in which case you will barely be awake when the polls close). And that name will be Jerry W. Kilgore.
Republican Jerry Kilgore will defeat Democrat Tim Kaine by no fewer than three percentage points. You heard it here first, and I am very confident about this. Why?
Well, let's begin with the fact that "senior Democrats," according to the WaPo, say that Kaine needs to lead by 5 points in the polls in order to win this race. Then, let's look at these comments, by Democratic political consultant Steve Jarding, who managed Mark Warner's successful campaign four years ago:
"But what would make me very nervous is the absolute, almost empirical evidence that at the end of the election in Virginia, Republicans tend to come home."
Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher made similar comments this weekend in the WaPo, as well.
In a race that is purported to be as close as this one, Get Out The Vote efforts will be what decides the winner. Democrats know this. Republicans know this. Russ Potts knows this. And that's why I believe that Jerry Kilgore will win by a small, but significant, margin.
This is certainly anecdotal evidence, so ascribe to it whatever weight you desire, but I have mentioned multiple times at Commonwealth Conservative that the Republican GOTV effort this year is the most organized statewide voter contact program that I have ever seen. Ever. Kilgore has duplicated the highly-successful 72 Hour Program that was utilized very effectively by President Bush in the 2004 elections, and it has been a sight to behold.
So the GOP always performs better at getting out their vote, and they have ramped up the effort this year. What are the Dems doing? As far as I can tell, it's the same old, same old. Unions sending out their members to work, etc., etc., etc. I'm sure they are working very hard, but it looks like the same Democratic GOTV, and I don't know why I should think that it would work this time around.
Republicans always perform better in Virginia than the polls would indicate, and I see no reason to believe that won't be the case this year, as well. There are many, many reasons to be optimistic about Jerry Kilgore's chances of victory in tomorrow's election.
What about the down-ticket races? Let's begin with the Lieutenant Governor campaign, where Republican Bill Bolling is facing Democrat Leslie Byrne. I won't spend much time analyzing this race, other than to say that Byrne has run a surprisingly strong campaign...and she has almost no chance of winning. Bolling will win by at least five percentage points.
Now, there is one caveat to this, and it likely applies to the Attorney General's race, too. If Tim Kaine wins going away -- five points or more -- he could carry Byrne with him. It's not likely, but I suppose it's possible.
Which brings me to the race for Attorney General between Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat Creigh Deeds. Early on, I thought Deeds would be the strongest Democrat running statewide. As it has turned out, however, Deeds has not been exceptionally competitive. Meanwhile, McDonnell has run very well, and his popularity in Hampton Roads is so overwhelming that Deeds will have difficulty making up that margin elsewhere. McDonnell is a unique candidate, in that his regional appeal is different than the other Republicans, and he has given Deeds fits.
My prediction: McDonnell will win by 7 points (with the same caveat as above).
So there you have it. I'm predicting a Republican sweep (I can see your jaws dropping). However, if the Democrats have improved their GOTV program, this really could be a barn-burner of an election night. I'm just seeing no evidence that the Dems will be able to match the GOP in getting out the vote. I hope I'm right.
« Question and answer time: the Wes Clark thing. — Comments (50) | SurveyUSA admits they screwed up VA Gov poll — Comments (9) »
My Virginia predictions 69 Comments (0 topical, 69 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Florida 2000 or last year's Washington state governor's race.
Sitting in a poll station in Church Hill, on the lookout for shenanigans. More importantly, I'll have a list of targeted voters that will be scooped up by a runner at 2pm, so the GOPVA can prod people along who haven't voted yet. I've got my fingers crossed!
- the right to bear arms
- a dem governor will control the 2010 census
redistricting !!!
3. appointment of state judges !
go vote !
Thanks for the post. Where is Jay Cost? Has he done any analysis?
The fact that the Kilgore campaign is working hard for votes in Northern Virginia gives me a sense of confidence that Kilgore will win. I was here 4 years ago and heard NOTHING from Earley in the last 10 days, and he cut nearly a double digit lead down to 5% on election day. Look for Kilgore to win. I won't say 3%, but will say 1-2%.
well
trust me dont under estimate the dems !
1.the dead do vote .
2.the dems have lists of dead fed and state union employees.
3. they have the operatives going thru the
nursing homes filing out the ansenteee ballots.
we caught a dem working an alzeimer's unit
in central fla.
there's a lot of money to be made at Tradesports, where the bottom has fallen out of Kilgore shares over the past few days.
from Northern Virginia, I'd be glad to vote for Kilgore. (see first comment above). :)
but a lot of people who are saying they are voting for Potts to the pollsters, when they get into the voting booth come home. So his #'s go from 5% to 1.5% and where does someone wanting to vote for a very conservative guy go? I can assure you not to the Dem.
I forgot to mention the winner tomorrow will appoint a U.S. Senator in 2009 to replace George Allen when he moves to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
I would hope your prediction is correct, but the reality is that Kaine will win by 5 - 10%.
A sign that Kilgore is way behind in the polls is his call to President Bush today to provide some final support. Kilgore has basically run without the help of the President but with being behind in every poll in the last month he has decided to ask the President to help out.
Kilgore ran the Al Gore 2000 campaign basically avoiding the help of an incumbent President because of a perceived weakness.
My prediction is Forrester will finish closer to Corzine than Kilgore to Kaine. Either way we will wake up Wednesday morning with MSM excited about two wins for the Democrat Party.
A Forrester win wouldn't surprise me. Eagleton shows Forrester closing the gap with independents breaking for him. Since Eagleton polls over several days, they could be underestimating that trend.
Link.
Rasmussen's polls on this race have been within the margin of error since early August and remain so on election-eve.
FWIW.
VA Govs are limited to a single 4-year term. Kaine will be out in 2009 (if he wins).
if Kaine wins:
- Gas taxes in Virginia will be hiked to pay for the next round of "progress".
- And the car tax phase-out? fugheddaboudit!
- How about in-state tuition for illegal immigrants? Kaine favors it.
- How about allowing "employment centers" such as the one in Herndon, where illegal immigrants can apply for day jobs? Kaine supports this.
In other words, if you don't vote tomorrow, don't come back here whining about how Kaine is screwing up the state.
You can knock me over with a feather if Corzine loses. Note the noun and verb.
I agree Forrester has the momentum at the right time. If he was running in another state he would probably win. New Jersey has so many more Democrats than Republicans it is hard for him to have any chance.
But the New Jersey and Virginia races are odd. Forrester was basically given no chance to win against Corzine, but has made the race competitive. He also made Corzine campaign hard until the last day.
Kilgore had to run an average campaign and he would have won easily. Bush carried this state by 9 points in 2004 and is still a Red state. Kilgore may have run one of the worst campaigns in recent years, but Corzine's horrible campaign has made more news coverage.
Any major race that could be decided by 1 vote will be decided in the courts instead.
Far too many irregularites exist for 1 vote to matter in anything other than a local race.
That being said, I always vote. Not sure I would drive 4 hrs though.
The Rasmussen poll is stale. I trust Rassmussen's polling more than any other polling organization, but the numbers are a few days old.
It is true that Rasmussen has had the race close for a number of months but Kilgore has gone from a 3-5 point lead to a 3 point deficit.
Every since the debate Kaine has been running stronger.
... there's less evidence that Rasmussen oversamples Democrats.
New Jersey has so many more Democrats than Republicans it is hard for him to have any chance.
That's actually not really all that accurate. New Jersey is among the more polarized states in the nation - with liberals dominating the densely populated "I-95" corridor from NYC to Philly and conservatives strong in the more rural (but still well populated) northwest and shoreline regions. Otherwise, it's difficult to explain why no statewide candidate from any party has cracked 60% in recent memory.
The problem for Republicans is that the Democrats have a clear, but small, majority - something like 53-47. So, Republicans need to swing independents who are otherwise inclined to support Democrats while Democrats need only keep their base in tact to win (as Corzine did 5-years ago) narrowly (50-47 - after outspending his GOP opponent nearly 10-1).
A week is a lifetime in politics and the Rasmussen numbers are indeed from the 2nd of November.
My bad - should have checked that more carefully.
as in California, and apparently Montana the other way, occasionally results in a GOP win because the public periodically gets tired of the same thing. If the usualy incumbents are seen as corrupt or completely out of step, the minority party sometimes will win a statewide race. As a Democrat it would disappoint me if Corzine loses (well, sort of, since there is no guarantee his appointee will win the Senate seat), but it wouldn't completely surprise me.
Republican/Democrat instead of Conservative/Liberal to describe the poles of New Jersey. Republicans that do well in NJ would be Democrats in most of the country outside of the Northeast and West Coast.
The northwestern sections of NJ (Warren, Sussex, Hunterdon and to a lesser extent Morris counties) are clearly conservative counties - much more so than simply Republican counties. Ocean county on the shoreline is also more conservative than just republican. Republicans in the rest of the state tend to be pretty liberal - and there are very, very few non-liberal Democrats in the state at all.
NJ Republicans have been commanded by the "Country Club" wing for some time however (Kean and Whitman, for example), because (I suppose) that's where the $$ has been. A true conservative (Bret Schundler), former mayor of Jersey City, was savaged by this faction of the party when he ran against McGreevy in 2001 because he threatened to flip lots of local power brokers on their heads. It was a nasty fight that, but for the complete criminality and incompetence on the other side of the aisle, should not have healed in any meaningful way by this time. In fact, I'd suggest that the wounds are still there and that Forrester has not done much to heal them.
If Forrester loses narrowly (less than 3%) I'd be willing to suggest that it was conservatives staying home that beat him. I don't think that will happen though as it's more likely Corzine will win "going-away" by NJ standards (which would be something like 54-46). NJ Republicans simply cannot overcome, all else being equal, the huge advantage the Democrats have in Essex County (essentially the City of Newark - Kerry by 41.6%, +120k votes, half of Kerry's margin in the state).
I almost snorted soda all over my laptop...
Seriously, the Friends of Allen should have heard something by now if we were supposed to help him get elected to the WH...
Though I wouldn't mind finding out at the last second...
There are plenty of political reasons to make the drive, but really the election should simply serve as your excuse to drive through some beautiful country and enjoy the Fall color. You could stop by the Gourmet Exxon and have a delicious Keswick sandwich for lunch, or perhaps enjoy some wings at St. Marten's. Hmmm . . . perhaps I should register to vote in Charlottesville.
about most of the state resides in Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Union, Middlesex, Someret, Mercer, and Camden I don't know how much you can factor in very rural and sparsely populated Sussex or Warren Counties. Hundertdon is only slightly more populous. Throw in Burlington, Salem, Cape May, and Cumberland you have a lot of land with very few people.
Monmouth and Bergen are both country club Republican places that are generally turned off by a SoCon. Schundler's pro-life pro-gun positions really damage him state wide.
On the polls, Survey USA poll was done over the weekend so this has to be discarded. Weekend polls are highly inaccurate plus this showed that Kilgore was down by 15 points among men. No way in a red state like this with the endorsement of the NRA and FOP he is down like that to an anti-death penalty liberal. Rasmussen reports was done over one night which I am little suspect because respondents who were undecided were pressed to make a decision (leaners). Without leaners it was 45-44 kaine on that night, a big church night in Va. Mason -dixon had it about right 45-44 kaine over a two day period. Conventional wisdom has it that this is dead even with a lot of undecideds.
BillH
Actually, between Essex, Bergen, Hudson (NYC Hotel Towns plus Newark), Mercer and Camden (Trenton and Philly suburbs) you're probably talking about close to half of the voting population right there - and it's all (with the exception of Bergen) deep red.
Monmouth will be a Dem county as soon as the fort closes. And Bergen (where I grew up) is where RINOs were invented, I think.
How about that fact that hundreds of thousands of Americans have shed their blood to ensure that you can vote tomorrow?
that all those counties were Deep blue except for Bergen which is Deep Country Club Purple.
Bergen is most certainly the land of the RINO.
Yep, I should just stick to Dem/GOP - going back and forth to the Election Atlas gets me confused.
Cheers.
You said that Leslie Byrne has run a surprisingly strong campaign. Could you elaborate? What has she done?
From what I've heard, she won't win, but I'm really concerned if a flagrantly pro-abortion liberal even comes close to winning in Virginia, because we will see clones of her in all sorts of races next year in so many states.
I did not have a chance to read the internals of the Survey USA poll, but if it showed Kilgore down 15pts among men then it should not be considered.
I am not aware of Virginia voting patterns. But from the great state of Florida where voting problems seem to always arise the DEMS control South Florida. If the turnout is high in south Florida then it is hard for the GOP candidate, but if turnout is low then the GOP candidate usually will win with 5 pts plus margin. The rest of the state is solidly red except parts of the I-4 corridor. (Tampa to Orlando)
I am not sure if Virgina is similar
Mike C, This race will be awfully close. Jerry Kilgore is not down to Tim kaine by 9 points. My guess is that he is doing pretty well because of the bush 43' visit. Last time in 2001 43' wouldnt help Mark Earley because is he was so behind to warner. No way he risks losing this and getting blamed. Conventioanl wisdom from the RNC down here is that we will win AG, Lt Gov, pick up 1-2 seats in House of delegates and Gov race is close and will come down to turnout. Either one can win this. On election night in 2001 Warner was ahead by 10 points in the Washpost poll and ended up winning by about 4% (125,000 votes). This time Kaine was up by 3%. Senior Democrats has suggested that Kaine has to be up by 5% on election night to have a shot a winning. Not sure he has that this time.
I think Chad is very close with his numbers and comments.
Virginia Republicans almost always out-perform their poll numbers.
Gov. Warner was in Charlottesville yesterday afternoon and I was underwhelmed by the turnout.
I would estimate the crowd at 200, maybe 250, which for the Peoples Republic of Charlottesville is not much for a popular Dem. Gov.
The people who were there were not wild with enthusiasm, with just perfunctory applauding and sign waving.
I have been to many rallies and this one did not smell like the winning side.
I think Kilgore will eek it out by 2-4 points.
Boling will win easily unless Kilgore tanks.
I'm a Democrat, but I can answer this:
Leslie Byrne is not supposed to be in a statistical dead heat in any poll at this point in the race. And she is.
I'm not really sure what she's done. She certainly hasn't changed any of her positions. But she's kept up.
Deeds is the inverse of expectations however.
The 11/7/05 SurveyUSA has Kaine 52%, Kilgore 43%, and Potts at 3%.
The new NJ poll is there as well.
Here are the tracking poll results, which include today's poll.
This has already been addressed.
because the poll internals show Kaine up 5% among men. not what i would have guessed but not likely.
the tracking numbers also seem to show most of the change coming from NoVa breaking heavily for Kaine. This strikes me as perfectly plausible, though I was a little shocked by the 2-to-1 margin.
Last year I stood in line for an hour to vote for W. I live in Massachusetts, meaning my vote meant absolutely nothing.
If I can do THAT, you can drive 4 hours to cast a vote that will definitely mean something.
Also--your vote may be the difference in denying the media another sword to stick into the prez.
Convinced?
Much of the Republican/Democrat split in various NJ counties has little to do with conservative liberal and has more to do with a party machine--lots of counties are dominated by one party or the other, and that's a recipe for corruption--whether it's the Republican corruption in Monmouth County, or Democratic corruption in Essex, Camden, and Hudson County.
Schundler is an interesting case--he's very conservative (in NJ terms) but he's also a reformer. But his inability to do well statewide also reflects a basic dilemma--his conservatism is what gets him the Republican nomination from the very establishment Bobby Franks, but it makes it impossible for him to win statewide.
quite a bit of traveling lately, but I've managed a few comments here along the way.
Just trying to be helpful, if the link to the poll and tracking results are posted here I didn't see them.
survey usa , is a liberal polling group and always way off .
in 2002 , they had jeb bush neck and with some unknown lawyer. jeb won 57- 58 % of the vote.
the battleground folks were way off too.
republicans are busy people with fammilies , jobs etc and use cell phones. the pollster even admit they can find plenty of dems at home but few republicans still have land lines and will answer pollsters questions.
Thats a wee bit dramatic.
Virginia is one of the most gun friendly states in the Union, and that won't change no matter who wins.
He didn't win by near that amount if I remember correctly.
They got the polling right last year in many of the state races. Matt Blunt in Missouri, Mel Martinez in Florida, Tom Coburn in Oklahoma.
I don't think this poll is reliable. Kaine might be ahead by a few points, but the media has convinced people it's wrong to support Kilgore because the media sees him as "bad". So they will claim to pollsters that they are voting for Kaine, or are undecided, and then tomorrow they will vote for Kilgore.
My Dad's a staunch Republican who would vote no matter what, but my mother, although Republican, likes to slack off sometimes when it comes to voting. She's recieved multiple calls from Republicans to go vote and since my Democrats haven't even given her so much as a call or a note, she's decided to go vote...and it ain't for a Democrat. It seems the GOTV efforts are really working and Democrats are letting votes slip by them and add up day-by-day. I wonder how many more examples just like this are going on throughout the state, I'm guessing alot, and I'm also guessing Republican turnout will trump the Democrats. <sigh> I wish it weren't so, but that's the reality I'm seeing.
McConnell has run have been effective against Deeds.
Do you think people are less inclined to respond negatively to Byrne in polls because she is a female?
Something is wrong with these numbers. Kilgore is losing the white vote and only matching Kaine in the rural vote? 15% of conservatives plan to vote for Kaine? Kaine wins men?
For more, here's the full rundown
Just got back from the Bush-Kilgore rally and was turned away due to it being full. This was at a full hour from the event. That looks good and as I was leaving, traffic was backed up for a couple miles on I 64. This was a smart move because it drowned out the Kaine rally in downtown Richmond. Im a little tee'ed off because I sat in traffic a whole hour though. Now, as for polls Survey USA was done on the weekend, that is a no no. Plus this was done for a TV news station and I dont think this is on the main site for them (Survey USA). They may have changed their web site a little though. I think it is at 47-46 for Kaine with a lot of undecideds still.
they were way off on Bush/Kerry.
as for a few races they got right ,even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in awhile.
was also not helped at all by the then-Senate President publicly (in the press, that is) questioning whether or not Schundler had to chops to govern and accusing him of being a right-wing kook, etc. For his troubles, that particular genius cost the GOP control of the NJ Senate in 2001 - control of which could have at least held McGreevey's worst impulses somewhat in check.
Pity - Schundler would have been a great governor. Now, they're going to get a rich white liberal (that would be Corzine - as opposed to the rich white RINO Doug Forrester) - just what they need in the state with already the highest overall tax burden in the nation.
I cannot get my parents and in-laws out of that cesspool fast enough.
1,500 Virginia adults were interviewed 11/4/05 - 11/6/05. Of them, 1,242 were registered voters. Of them, 656 were judged to be "likely" voters.
This poll is useless.. up 2% and now down 9%?
Not even half are likely voters here.
Weekend poll.
Big Virginia Tech game on Sat.
Church and NFL on Sunday.
Men's contribution obviously flawed.
Simply pull out last year's tax return. Mentally cut it in half. Then in half again. That's where you'll be with more Democrat "Budget Reform". Now, go vote.
How much do you make an hour? Mulply that by 4. Add that to the gas it will cost you. This is the cost to you if you vote.
Now consider how much you pay in taxes. Consider just a one percent increase in taxes per year. multiply that by the next 4-6 years (whoever is right). Then add the compound interest you could could earn by investing that in stocks over the years. This is the cost of you not voting. But let's go further.
What would any tax increase do to your economy? That could cost you or your friends their job. You want VA to maintain that competitive edge, and apathy won't do that for you.
Most importantly of all, remember that pro-life Republican states do better at keeping the number of abortions per capita down. Think of the children (especially if Roe v. Wade is overturned anytime soon.
As for people who don't think their votes count, consider the following. People are run by a herd mentality. While you may or may not cast the deciding vote, you do affect the margin of victory, which in turn affects people's mentalities and who they want to vote for (they want to be like you). Margins also can strike fear into the hearts of RINO's. People also like incumbents, unless it's a terrible incumbent. In other words, your vote increases Republican votes, and Kilgore winning increases Republican votes.
If I haven't convinced you yet, that's your problem, not mine. Take responsibility for yourself. If I've failed, it's your job to convince yourself to vote.
So, pop in some good music and take a road-trip. You will be bettering your community and making yourself a more responsible individual.
He wants to get elected in a state that's very blue. He had to run as a Rino to win swayable Dems but in his heart he's one of us.
Did you read his statement on the nomination of Alito? Something about how important it is to protect a woman's right to choose. Someone who needs his base to vote in a race that will have low turnout has no business making a statement such as that politically. The rabid pro-choicers are already backing Corzine, so all a statement like that does is encourage the pro-life base to take today off. He's not running to the center because he thinks that's where he needs to be to win. He's running to the center because he is a Tom Kean-Christie Whitman Republican.
If someone buys your gas?
OK - I guess I must stop lurking and RAISE MY VOICE unless you forgot to indicate <sarcasm>.
230 years ago my direct ancestor sold his farm to raise funds and procure the uniforms for the 1st Maryland Regiment - so you and I could freely drive and vote tomorrow.
Where do I send the money?
He just campaigns - and is highly likely to govern - like one.
I'm sure there's a distinction in there somewhere, but frankly it's lost on me.
...that Hitler fella might get paroled.
Sorry, couldn't resist.
Frankly, Byrne was the only one (on the Dem. side) that I honestly didn't like that much, so I am clueless as to how she's managed to keep up.
Do you have anything to add to this discussion of have you simply come here to track mud on our lovely carpets?
If you're looking to gloat, you may have inadvertently landed in the wrong universe when you were trying to type d-a-i-l-y-k-o-s-.-c-o-m - happens all the time.
I'm living in Northern Virginia. We moved from Charlottesville a year ago. Although we sent change of address forms in over a month ago, they received my wife's form, but not mine. So, she can vote here, but I have to vote in Charlottesville tomorrow.
So, all that said. I'm agonizing about whether I should drive 4+ hours tomorrow (round trip) to vote for Jerry Kilgore. Anyone want to take a stab at convincing me?