Redstate

Just one thing I was thinking about -- I think I'm the only one who was in a heavy Dem precinct -- Church Hill for those who know Richmond.  It was on pace to exceed the '01 turnout numbers quite easily.  That could be really, really bad news for Kilgore.

Any info on that would be appreciated.  The Albo v. Werkheiser race is one of the most expensive House of Delegates races in Virginia, with more than $730,000 spent between the two.

It seemed the R GOTV effort was much better co-ordinated than the D effort.  Basically, Rs had a list of people with known histories of Republican registration, activities, or donations.  Poll watchers were handed a list of these people by the VAGOP, and we marked them off as names were called out by the polling officials.  At 2pm, a runner came by to pick the list up, so that people who hadn't voted yet could be harassed into showing up at the polls.

My Dem counterpart was in awe of this.  Their approach is apparently to give rides to people who need them, call EVERYONE on their lists, etc.

"I think I'm the only one who was in a heavy Dem precinct"

Perhaps among the commenters on my blog. I have other sources.

I voted at 4PM and I was #307. There were only two of us voting. I'm not sure how many registered voters there are in my precint (Powhatan County - Flat Rock) but I got the impression from the election workers that is was lower than expected. I would assume the test will be how many turn out between now and 7PM which is usually the heavy time for voters at the polls.

Does anyone know of a source for number of registered voters by precinct?

Statistics_Polling_Places/Registration

This sounds exactly like what we were doing for the Bush campaign in Cincinnatti last year--with "poll flushers" and "target lists."  This gives me some hope that Kilgore has a shot tonight.  Keep up the good work all!

Mr. Fancy Other Source Man.

One other good anecdote.  Apparently Red Bull decided to run a special by giving out free drinks to polling personnel.  About 11am the red bull girls showed up with a bag of the stuff.  Watching them give this stuff out to a group of 65-year-old ladies and describe it with a straight face as "good for you" and a "vitamin drink" almost made me buy into the leftist critiques of consumerism.

For a second.

A low turnout is good for Kilgore. Those who vote later in the day (i.e., after work) tend to vote republican in higher numbers than those who vote early (i.e., those without jobs). Therefore a low turnout number early means dems are staying home. Also, those who tend to vote republican generally are more consistent voters. Expect a Kilgore win by 2%.

> How Democrats would have access to GOP data

Sounds like the 2004 Presidential election when dems were leaking non-normalized exit poll data and talking about high dem turnout while Mehlman was just smiling. Usually the ones doing the talking are the ones losing.

No immediate call of the race after the polls closed.

here:

http://www.sbe.state.va.us/web_docs/election/results/2001/nov2001/html/l_03
.htm

Complaints like this should be looked at with a very skeptical eye. If I recall from last year's election, complaining about voting machines and intimidation, etc was a Dem trick that was to be carried out regardless of the facts in an attempt to delegitimize the results.

If the Dems are already laying a foundation to dispute the results, maybe they know something we don't (yet)?

so there would be no data to call the race on.  Doesn't say anything either way.

1 precint reporting.

I feel like . . . mmmmm...64 slices of American cheese.  63 . . . 62 . . . 61

Kilgore 60.30%

Kaine 37.94%

Potts 1.76%

Other Republicans also ahead.

I think I'm BLIND!

Kilgore: 56%

Kaine: 42%

Potts: 2%

I would wait until we get to ten percent or so of precincts reporting before I got too excited. Right now we're at only a fraction of one percent.

that my worst fears have failed to come true.

they're just hedging their bets. By all accounts it will be a close race.

Precincts Reporting: 61 of 2426 (2.51%)

Registered Voters: 4,452,088   Total Voting: 47,148   Voter Turnout: 1.06 %

 Candidates      Party     Vote Totals     Percentage

  T M Kaine      Democratic     25,590     54.28%

  J W Kilgore      Republican     20,230     42.91%

  H R Potts Jr      Independent     1,271     2.70%

  Write Ins            57     0.12%

Precincts Reporting: 130 of 2426 (5.36%)

Registered Voters: 4,452,062   Total Voting: 129,864   Voter Turnout: 2.92 %

 Candidates      Party     Vote Totals     Percentage

  J W Kilgore      Republican     64,387     49.58%

  T M Kaine      Democratic     63,335     48.77%

  H R Potts Jr      Independent     1,997     1.54%

  Write Ins            145     0.11%

Vote Totals:

    129,864      

Precincts Reporting: 229 of 2426 (9.44%)

 Candidates  Party Vote Totals Percentage

  J W Kilgore  Republican 174,724 63.90%

  T M Kaine  Democratic 95,086 34.78%

  H R Potts Jr  Independent 3,433 1.26%

  Write Ins    185 0.07%

  Vote Totals: 273,428  

who lives on the other side of the country, but who does Potts siphon votes from? Kilgore or Kaine?

Precincts Reporting: 389 of 2426 (16.03%)

Registered Voters: 4,452,058   Total Voting: 425,163   Voter Turnout: 9.55 %  

 Candidates  Party Vote Totals Percentage

  J W Kilgore  Republican 236,588 55.65%

  T M Kaine  Democratic 182,053 42.82%

  H R Potts Jr  Independent 6,235 1.47%

  Write Ins    287 0.07%

  Vote Totals: 425,163  

• J W Kilgore  Republican     236,588 55.65%
  
• T M Kaine      Democratic     182,053 42.82%
  
• H R Potts Jr  Independent     6,235     1.47%
  
• Write Ins                    287     0.07%
  

AG GOP candidate not doing as well, why?  Because they got most of Alexandria counted for that race first, but not the others.

Precincts Reporting: 596 of 2426 (24.57%)

Registered Voters: 4,452,012   Total Voting: 565,860   Voter Turnout: 12.71 %  

 Candidates  Party Vote Totals Percentage

  J W Kilgore  Republican 309,193 54.64%

  T M Kaine  Democratic 246,111 43.49%

  H R Potts Jr  Independent 10,123 1.79%

  Write Ins    433 0.08%

  Vote Totals: 565,860  

My very conservative aunt (and her family) who would have almost certainly voted for Kilgore if they knew Potts wasn't a conservative . . . . voted for him.  

Kilgore down about 4% off of Earley's showing, with only two precincts left.  Turnout up there.

have reported?

Just curious, if the counties are known as DNC or GOP strongholds.

But he's an older kook.

Potts has, in the past two years, flip-flopped on every issue he claimed to be conservative on - from pro-life to pro-choice, from anti-tax to pro-tax, from small-government to big-government.

He's basically a protest vote for either side.

And take it with this: http://virginia2005.blogspot.com/ is a great Virginia election blog that is non-partisan and seems to really know his stuff. He just called for Kaine...for what it's worth, of course.

http://sbe.vipnet.org/index.htm

Although it is now getting overloaded.

Some counties that normaly vote 70% GOP haven't reported yet. Don't be discouraged by the current tallies.

No data in from Va Beach, among others. Still a ways to go... though it does not look too good for Kilgore.

Kilgore.

I have to say, it looks like he won. My guess is that he narrowly breaks 50%.

With only 49% of precincts counted, it's too early to call. My county hasn't reported any precincts yet. I suspect a lot of the GOP strongholds out west will take a while to report. As of right now, I'm having real trouble with the SBE site, especially the county results.

Is this for real?  If not, why was it reported early on?  If so, why was it changed?

Summary Results - BRUNSWICK COUNTY

Candidates      Party     Vote Totals:    Percentage

J W Kilgore    Republican     85,057        98.36%

T M Kaine      Democratic      1,398         1.62%

H R Potts Jr   Independent        19         0.02%

Write Ins                          1         0.00%

Kaine and Kilgore switched for 8:30

Tradesports gives Kilgore a [https://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp 4%] chance of winning right now.  If you think he is going to win, that's 25-1 odds.

Bush won VA by 8% in 2004.  Warner beat Earley by 5% in 2001.

Also at [www.intrade.com], Kilgore gets a 4.1% chance of winning.

(You can buy a futures share at $4.01. If he wins, it'll max out at $100.00!)

Evan

Thats a big Dem stronghold.

Office: Governor

Precincts Reporting: 187 of 228 (82.02%)

Registered Voters: 611,183   Total Voting: 213,088   Voter Turnout: 34.86 %  

 Candidates  Party Vote Totals: Percentage

  T M Kaine  Democratic 128,276 60.20%

  J W Kilgore  Republican 80,841 37.94%

  H R Potts Jr  Independent 3,814 1.79%

  Write Ins    157

I know that many people tend to vote on their way to work in the morning.

Real Clear Politics is reporting

UPDATE (8:52pm EST):  57.49% precincts reporting, Kaine 51.83, Kilgore 45.95. NBC12 has reports of voting 'glitches' in Richmond. Here is an AP update from 2 minutes ago saying Kaine has a 55,000 vote lead with 63.48% precincts reporting.

UPDATE (8:57pm EST): Reports of problems with voting machines in Roanoke County as well.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/blog/2005/11/election_night_blog_thread.ht
ml

Tazewell & Russell are pretty small counties.  But if they're indicative of a shift in a region that hasn't yet reported . . .

I need to double check some numbers, but if correct the numbers that I just got for Tazewell and Russell counties are very strong for Kilgore.

Between Tazewell and Russell there was only about 15,000 votes cast. I don't understand how that is a big deal... I certainly don't see how that carries Kilgore over the top.

At 9:07.

Damn.

According to the "virginiainteractive.org" link, Bolling was outpolling Kilgore by about 30k votes - with lower turnout.

Could be time to stick a fork in Kilgore.

Bad loss - bad, bad loss.

This virtually ensures that governors will be chosen by no more than 35-40% of voters.  Makes no sense.

Don't get your NFL tips from Chad Dotson this weekend.

... lol, just trying to lighten the mood

AP has called it. It appears he duplicated Mark Warner's 2001 performance and outperformed even Kerry in Northern VA...its over folks..now to the down ticket races

...that this loss isn't such a big deal?

But it's not the wholesale rejection of Republicans generally and Bush specifically that the press is claiming it is.  Warner won by 5% in 2001 when Bush's approval ratings were in the 80s.  This was a local election won on local issues.

If you know anything about Virginia, you know we're a busy enough state for our elections to not really reflect national issues.  But thanks to our system (no consecutive terms, two terms max), we don't need to feel too bad about a Kaine win.  AP can declare him the winner...I'll go ahead and declare him a lame duck.  

Both Kilgore and Forrester beat the "spreads."  Thus, they won.

.... Nah.  This loss in VA is just a bad beat.  That can happen when a Democrat runs completely away from the national party's liberalism and National Security isn't an issue on the table.

VA is a bad loss - no doubt about it.  But it proves that you don't beat something with nothing.  Apparently, enough people were convinced that Kaine is going to be Warner 2.0 that they said "why not" and did the next-best thing to re-electing Warner.  But, they also sent a Rep into the LG office and perhaps the AG and it looks as if the GOP may have gained a seat (or maybe 2) in the legislature - status quo.

NJ is bad because the Democrat Party is so, at it's core, corrupt and they've had the entire state under their control for the last 4-years and yet the local Republicans cannot seem to get any traction there at all.  It looks like Forrester is underperforming Bush for Heaven's Sake!  Plus, it looks like the Demos are a lock to pick up at least 1 seat in the State House (could be as many as 3) - padding their already sizeable majority.  That is a comprehensive, bad loss - but it's also New Jersey - let's face it, a blue state.

Still, what if anything of a "national tide" do we see in these elections?  None, to my mind.  The NJ GOP is returning to their dysfunctional roots and the VA GOP held their own with a weak top-ticket against a very popular "incumbent".  Sorry, I just don't see any trends there - and certainly no Democrat wave.

I'm sure the MSM will find one, though.

But they also have 'similarity scores' with other precincts I had not yet gotten, due to the overload on the Virginia returns site. So the models did not just look at them, but it forecast other counties based on them.

That is why I needed to find more data, to make sure they were not picking up a trend.

They were not.

The papers all said that the results indicated that the GOP would fall nationally in 2002.  And what happened since then?

It's like deja-vu all over again...

why national security would be on the table for a Virginia governor's race? Do you know something about the powers of the Virginia executive that Tim Kaine doesn't?

With 99.13% of the vote in, Deeds is up 1327 votes.

There will still be a recount, as there should be.  Those 1300 votes represent about a .07% margin.

That may back fire just like Bush's 11th hour fly by with Kilgore.Republican candidates need to face up to the facts and distance themselves away from Bush if this is a sign of things to come.According to FOX News, this was the most important race.A Lot was riding on it.

Frontpager Chad Dotson:  Republican Jerry Kilgore will defeat Democrat Tim Kaine by no fewer than three percentage points.

http://www.redstate.org/story/2005/11/7/11596/7717

Good call, Chad.  Only 8 or so off there....no biggie in a tight race lmfao.

Redstate sure got quiet tonight.

Kaine - Democratic -  won.

Kilgore - Republican - lost.

Corzine - Democratic - won.

Forrester - Republican - lost.

Every CA proposition (even the Arnie $60million taxpayer dollar supported ones) lost.  Even the parental notification one....LOST.

Dover County, PA......home of one of the two heated Intelligent Design court cases......8 county commissioners ....all Republican....all up for re-election....

EIGHT REPUBLICANS DEFEATED

EIGHT DEMOCRATIC CHALLENGERS VICTORIOUS

KAINE TROUNCED KILGORE .....even with Kilgore's dirty campaigning and even with the robocalls from the Republican Governor's Association which have been recorded and documented........

STILL WON ....by 5 percent

Corzine.....WON.....don't need to mention the percentage (other than to say we destroyed you in no uncertain terms and I'm laughing)...no need to rub in a complete destruction of Forrester (no need at all.....seen the results? :-) ).

BTW....He picks the new senator....and the one to run against Kean.....enjoy the fruits of your labor there.  

Maine voted down bigotry....big loss for the Republican campaign for bigotry in Maine.   Shut down in big numbers.

BIG WINS FOR REPUBLICANS THOUGH!

In..um ...well....Texas made gay marriage illegal....cept...well it was already illegal lol.

and Bloomsberg was re-elected in a shocker worth well how much is Bloomsberg worth again?   LOL only Drudge gave a crap about that outcome.....and wouldn't have if the Dems and Progressives hadn't ruled the night lol.

DRUDGE said it all though

DEMOCRAT"S NIGHT!   ;-)

Oh and btw....what was that about a guaranteed Kilgore victory? LMFAO    This is the only place that woulda said something so silly.   I laughed when I read it and I laugh even harder now.  

<crickets>

Get ready.

It's just begun.

You're seeing 2006 and if you don't think so..... go look into the results in VA.....we trounced you in Republican precincts left and right.   Some of the strongest Repuglican strongholds went Dem tonight and some of the moderates went landslide Dem.  This is the exurbs.   You might want to wake up to 2006 because contrary to the RNC talking points issued by Mehlman tonight that this isn't an indicator of anything but local politics.....you'd be insane to think it's anything but a trend.

Enjoy your champagne ..... your guaranteed victory must have brought a good supply right?

Heh

:-)

You have to give it to the dems. They won fair and square as I would say if it was the other way.

National security pretty much isn't ever an issue in Virginia statewide races...at least not any more than for any other state.  Thus, making any correlation would be misguided.  I think that was the point being made.

I believe his name is Bloomberg, minus the "S".  (Actually I know).  Have fun on The Pile.

... within a few weeks after the absolute low-point in the Bush Administration.  But can anyone prove that it says much about the national picture? I'm hearing that the Hitler ad in VA did not go over well.  I'm glad.  We need to punish that sort of BS anyway.

And the people of Ohio made a clear statement that Republican Controlled Voting Machines<sup>TM</sup&gt are a good thing.  That will help ;)

Harping on illegal immigration cannot win a general election.

Warner and Kaine were very vulnerable on the tax increase - they concealed a surplus in order to get the largest tax increase in the history of the state passed.

Unfortunately, we're stuck with Kaine for four years, and now Warner will be running for the White House in 2008.

So the VA governor's race is a predictor of the following year's Congressional races.

How many Dems did Mark Warner's 2001 victory pull in  in 2002?

<crickets>

New Jersey: if Dems can't win there, they can't win anywhere.

California: that state went off the edge years ago. Lets watch the crime rate in San Francisco go through the roof now that they've banned private handgun ownership.

I'm sorry your well thought-out Ohio ballot initiatives went down in flames. How will you explain it to your sugar daddy Soros?

<crickets>

Harping on illegal immigration cannot win a general election.

At the state level?  Certainly.

At the federal level?  I'm not at all sure about that.  I don't think it can be the alpha-omega of the campaign (sorry Tancredo), but it can certainly be a big part of "homeland security" - especially giving what we're seeing in France presently with their unassimilated immigrants (Muslims, not to put too fine a point on it).

I would not put too much stock in Kilgore's attempts to make illegal immigration a big issue - his campaign was apparently (or can we now say evidently) awful across the board.

But I'm not going to play the blame game. Obviously, a lot of people who voted Republican for LG and AG voted for Kaine. So now that Kaine is elected and can't run again, he will show his true colors. Expect Kaine to:

Commute death sentences

Push for a higher state gas tax

Fortunately we still control the state legislature. I for one will be quite busy writing my representatives whenever Kaine tries to push his liberal agenda.

National Security really isn't an issue on the state level (you know, since it's state and not national) so Republicans lose the natural advantage that they have in that area when it comes to Governor's races.

Reinstatement of the car tax

Gun control

If my instincts are right, by the time Kaine finishes four years as governor the centrists who voted for him will rue the day that they checked the box next to his name.

I'm just joking.

more power to ya!   :-)