An Amazing Coincidence

By streiff Posted in Comments (55) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

I believe in coincidence. I’m probably a greater believer in coincidence than causation. If a woman wins the lottery twice, I’m not amazed because when you pause to consider the number of mathematically challenged people who do play the lottery every day you have to expect someone to get lucky twice.

Sometimes, though, coincidences happen which strain credulity. You look at them and you really want to believe it is coincidence but you just can’t.

Read on.

Four Christian peace activists held hostage in Iraq were kidnapped at the same place where an Italian journalist was abducted, raising the possibility one group carried out both attacks, police said Thursday.

The style of the abduction also was similar: The activists were seized Saturday in the vicinity of a mosque near Baghdad University. A car blocked their car, gunmen got out, threw the driver and translator out and drove away with the four captives, security officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to talk to the media.

Well, of course, it raises the possibility they were abducted by the same group. But the idea of two groups of hostages, who have in common an anti-war position, being kidnapped at the same place and in the same manner certainly provides alternate possibilities…

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Ransom by Buckland

The ransom that the Italian paid must have run out. Find a new group to extort money by terrorizing the countries with threats of beheadings.

Given the Dec 8 deadline.  But with British, Canadian amd American hostages, it's not like the terrorists can actually expect a ransom like they could have from Italy.

It's a Set Up by Iblis

The hostages work for an anti-war group that's in Iraq to, among other things, 'uncover US abuses'. They are on the side of the terrorists.

So it seems to me that the kidnapping could very well have been staged. If so, they'll be let free in a week and there will be stories of ransom paid, whether or not it has been.

Assuming by zuiko

Assuming you trust them to honor any agreement.

Coincidence? by jsteele

I.Think.Not.

Taht so-called 'peace activists' were engaged in fund raising for the enemy.

Jane Fonda did it here during Vietnam, and the left is desperate to to turn Iraq into a Vietnam.

Phony kidnappings have been a staple in many suspense stories. The flaky leftist hacks who inject themselves into war, always helping the enemy, would certainly need no great inventiveness to get themselves invovled in a fund raising excercise for their favorite terrorists.

These by kyle8

kinda people came out of the woodwork during the 1980's in central America. Always working for communists and against the USA attempts to spread democracy in South and central America.  They are scum of the earth.

 a complimentary term used for leftists who don't sleep well at night, truly believe in peace, who better to preach to than this group of non-believer. But if they truly believe in peace why did they have to be kidnapped in the first place?  You would think they would have sought out the terrorists and pleaded with them to bury their nail bombs and join the democratic party.

I Assume by Ron Greiner

it is all staged and the terrorists think these are suicide hostages.

Look by wooga

I'm as suspicious as anybody about the kidnapping, but I think it's in poor taste to openly declare - before Dec 8 - it to have been staged.  Even radical "peace" activists don't deserve to have their heads sawed off by Islamist thugs.  If this turns out to be real, I'd feel guilty as hell for screaming "staged!" the weak earlier.

Italian Journalist by lincoln accomplished

What journalist was abducted there? Was that the same lady who got so angry when we accidentally shot the guy who rescued her that she went on al jazeera? The sad thing is if they're with the terrorists we'll be hearing from them on state sponsored propagandists r us once they're released and if they're not, it'll be another tragedy in a tragedy prone region. Kinda like how people tested witches back in Salem.

Peace niks by hamss

You know, I'm sorry, but I have a hard time feeling bad for someone who knowingly put their and others lives in danger.  I'm sure that they want peace, so do I , but in this case, didn't we all "give peace a chance" once?

Its like those people that climb Mt Denali and fall into a crevas and expect someone to foot the bill for their rescue.  At least have a plan for a way out, and if you get caught expect the worse from terroists,  these unhuman vermon don't care about you wanting peace, they want you gone.

Stupid is as stupid was.

Err. . . by LarryInNYC

If a woman wins the lottery twice, I'm not amazed because when you pause to consider the number of mathematically challenged people who do play the lottery every day you have to expect someone to get lucky twice.

On the subject of "mathematically challenged", are you suggesting that the large number of people who play the lottery makes it more likely that someone will win twice?  Because it seems to me that it's just the opposite -- the larger the number playing the lower the probability that any one person will win twice.

If the number of people who played was notably small, it would be accurate to say that "given the small number of people that play the lottery every day, you have to expect someone to get lucky twice."  But given the shockingly large number of people who voluntarily act to lower my tax burden everyday, it is surprising if someone were to win a significant prize twice.

That reminds me of a human interest story I heard on the radio a few years ago.  It seems a fellow was rescued from the verge of bankruptcy by winning a mid-sized lottery jackpot.  He was able to use the money to retire all his debts.  Why was he on the verge of bankruptcy?  Because every week for over ten years he had been spending $120 on lottery tickets.

Than to remove all doubt by Robert A. Hahn

Some things are better left unsaid. Your post is one of them.

If the lottery were a drawing, you would be correct. But it's not, and you're not.

You win the lottery if you pick the right set of numbers from a larger set of numbers. Your odds of picking the right subset are the same whether you play alone, or with a million other people. The only impact of having more players in the game is that the odds increase of you having to split the pot with someone else who picked the same numbers you did. But you still "won."

Oddly enough. . . by LarryInNYC

. . . you're right :-).  You seem to have acquired substantially more knowledge about the operation of the lottery than I have (or at least than I had, until I took a look at the New York State lottery site).  Furthermore, you correctly diagnosed my impression of the lottery, which is that it is a drawing (I was confused by the fact that there is a "lottery drawing" to determine the six numbers one needs to match).

Furthermore, although you don't address it in your comment, that means that the odds of any given individual winning the jackpot twice, while still infintesimally small, are, in fact, larger the more people who regularly play the game.

Why would you think that they were that out of touch with reality?

Who cares? by Tbone

I don't. If these 4 get killed it's thinning the herd in my book.

Staged? by Robert A. Hahn

What makes you think it was staged?

Awesome!...nt by rbdwiggins

Who by jsteele

comes up with this stuff :-)

To the RS editors. by Jackal4444

I believe you need to get a handle on this thread, and quick.  IMHO, it's one thing to suspect the coincidence involved with the abduction of these four peace acitivists; it's quite another to callously disregard their pending murder (by the most atrocious means) simply because they have a different political opinion than we do.  Because that's the worst we can say about them at this point -- they disagree with us politically.

These people are not the enemy.  They may be soft in the head, perhaps they should have known better, but to suggest that they deserve to die for it is inhumane, and frankly, places us on the same moral plane as the most rabid leftists over at dKos.

We're better than this.

Re: Hypocrisy by Barlow

What are you talking about? It's okay if people whose politics we don't agree with are murdered. After all, that's the sort of terrorism we're supposed to be fighting against, right?

I've lost all faith in RedState's readers.

Barlow, are you sure... by Jackal4444

you responded to the right thread?  Because, if so, I suggest you re-read my post again.  I am most certainly not calling for anything of the kind; in fact, quite the opposite.  I am calling into question some of the comments (up to that point in the thread) which glibly referred to the anticipated murder of these 4 activists as if it were anything other than a tragedy.

Is your faith now re-confirmed?

Here's why... by boot on the neck

What causes us to go in and save those idiot peace activists are the same intangibles that has led us to pull France out of the fire twice (three times if you count VietNam), and would lead us to do it again.  Righteousness. Compassion. Commitment to freedom.  That and the right to go someplace and not get your head sawed off by Abudul and Habib on a tape delayed broadcast of al-Jazeera.

Are they stupid for being there?  Yes.  Should we send our best and bravest in to rescue their worthless, sniveling backsides?  Wish our military thought we didn't have to.  Should we divert valuable assets from the war to rescue them?  No.

Will we do these things anyway? Yes.

Re: by Barlow

My comment was in agreeance with yours... my first statement was sarcasm, sorry. I just cannot believe that anyone thinks this murder is a good thing; granted, it's not directly on their hands, but the same thought process is what drives our enemies to murder and attack us as Americans.

I have to say that I am utterly stunned at the rank disregard for other human beings shown by some posters.

Because these people are "peace activists" their life has no value? Because these people voluntarily go into a war zone, risk their lives to try and help establish the democracy you all are so fond of they deserve to have their motives impugned and be equated with terrorists?

Really, you guys need to get a grip. I'm disgusted.

Never mind by Robert A. Hahn
    Peace Activists

Now you tell us. We thought they were fetus advocates. We figured if the terrorists cut them up with scissors and knives, it was no big deal.

Nick, again,... by Jackal4444

please dial back the rhetoric.  We're taliking about innocent human life here -- misguided, foolish, naive perhaps -- but still innocent.  And I know (from your position on abortion) the value you place on innocent human life, so please don't trivialize these four.

Look, if and when this is proven to be some elaborate staged production to bring attention to the terrorists' cause, I'll be the first one decrying it from the rooftops.  But until a semblance of proof is produced, it is wrong, IMO, to even appear to revel in their anticipated murder based on speculation, or send the message that they somehow deserve it.  They don't, and we know better.

Their motive by streiff

is self-impugning. Four self-absorped zealots who preferred Saddam in power are hardly indispensable to democracy.

I missed anyone saying they needed killing.

Scare quotes were never better used.

Because these people voluntarily go into a war zone, risk their lives to try and help establish the democracy ...

Hahahaha.

Witnessing is helping?  What utter absorbed tripe.

These people went to Iraq because they hope to undermine the US effort.  Being 'victims' of a kidnapping is at least as effective as coming home and telling their liberal cohorts how bad the Sunnis are having it now that the iron boot is on the other foot, or at least how much more the Sunnis' feet hurt now that they are forced to wear the same sandals as their Shi'ia and Kurdish fellows.

Set your jets to 'stun' by Robert A. Hahn

Where do you get this "reveling in their murders" stuff? No one has said any such thing. I'll scale back the rhetoric when I see an end to the manufactured outrage.

It is a fact that in the past, these 'insurgents' have staged kidnappings. Remember the video of the GI-Joe doll they were going to kill? Well, that one fooled no one. Now comes a kidnapping where it looks for all the world like the hostages and the kidnappers planned it together. True, it may turn out that these particular kidnappers took these peace activists for fools, and really do intend to kill them. But in the meantime it is not beyond the pale to speculate as to just what is going on here. To claim that doing so is "reveling in their murders" is off-the-wall nonsense. So far there have been no murders. But there sure has been a media stunt. If the stunt is entirely the terrorists' doing and the hostages are truly in danger, that will be too bad. But if the 'hostages' are in on this, and it's all going to end in some miraculous escape, I am going to be royally ticked at them.

accidental? by Walter Wallis

The shooting of the Italian rescuer was not accidental. It was the intentional act of a sentry who was under orders to shoot anyone attempting to run a checkpoint. Think of it as evolution in action.

in my previous response, a quick review of my other posts on this subject will establish the fact that I wasn't questioning the right to speculate on the coincidence of the abduction.  Though I think that specualtion is far-fetched, it is a matter of opinion.

What is not a matter of opinion and truly beyond the pail were posts, such as the following, which, IMO, appeared to revel in, or at least reflect an utter disregard for, the anticipated murder of these activists.

http://hail.he.net/~danger/jazeera.jpg

"We figured if the terrorists cut them up with scissors and knives, it was no big deal."

"Who cares?  I don't. If these 4 get killed it's thinning the herd in my book."

Since it's easy to be dismissive about the lives of strangers, try this.  Knowing the facts -- not speculation, not coincidence, but the facts -- that we know today, would you appreciate the above posts if a member of your family was one of these four hostages?  I don't believe you would, I'm certain the American public wouldn't, and it makes RS appear callous in the extreme when we allow such comments to go unchallenged.

I'm not demanding an apology nor even a retraction.  What I am asking for is sober reflection -- out of respect for their humanity, and for the sake of our own.  The death (pending or past) of a human being, much less one innocent of any crime, should never be taken lightly.

My apologies,... by Jackal4444

compound sentences are apparently not my forte this morning; I should have said the following:

"What is not a matter of opinion and truly beyond the pail were posts, such as the following, which, IMO, appeared to revel in the anticipated murder, or at least reflect an utter disregard for the lives of, these activists."

Still no sale by Robert A. Hahn

The graphic is an obvious take-off on a previous staged "kidnapping" where terrorists released film of a hostage whom they threatened to kill. The "hostage" was quickly identified as a GI Joe action figure. That incident establishes the fact that these people will stage fake kidnappings in an effort to draw media attention.

The comment about knives and scissors is an obvious reference to procedures performed on 'fetuses,' procedures which are regularly dismissed as "no big deal."

A quick Google on "Darwin Award" turns up 264,000 citations. The dismissal of the unfortunate deaths of people who do really stupid things is apparently a common human foible.

I maintain that you are reaching to find manufacturable outrage in these comments. When is the last time you visited darwinawards.com to voice similar outrage over the deaths they clearly do celebrate?

not out the door yet, let me try one more time.  I'm not outraged -- manufactured or otherwise -- simply disappointed when I see posts like those I alluded to in my previous response.  And I'm not trying to highjack this thread, but rather redirect it back towards speculation of the coincidence and away from devaluation of the hostages' lives.

I'll grant you the picture.  In relation to the GI Joe hostage video, it was entirely on point.  I still believe it is in poor taste when applied to the current subject under discussion, but accept that it was not intended as such by you.

However, you justify your previous use of "knives and scissors" as "an obvious reference to procedures performed on 'fetuses,'...regularly dismissed as 'no big deal.'"  But you don't believe those procedures are no big deal, do you?  Neither do I.  Then why would you consider that a valid argument in this case, even if solely intended to tangentially reinforce your pro-life credentials?

I don't know what to make of your Darwin Awards justification.  I don't visit their site because I don't share their callous disregard for human life.  I also don't buy a lot of "Faces of Death" videos.  And I was under the impression that I could expect better from the content and community here at RS than I might find over at darwinawards.com, and/or dKos; I hope I was not mistaken.

Again, my fundamental concern is for the independent value of human life -- any human life.  There are times when the taking of life is justified and/or necessary (as in the death penalty, self-defense, or in the case of war); but it is always, IMO, a tragedy, made greater when that life is innocent, and it should never be trivialized.

...maybe he can help negotiate the peace-creeps' release.

Why don't these so-called 'peace activists' ever act as human shields at Israeli pizza parlors, or Jordanian weddings, or for Indonesian Christian schoolgirls or Australian tourists?  Why are they always giving cover for and opportunities to bloody-handed Islamakazes and Ba'athists?

While I wouldn't wish what happened to Danny Pearl on Scott Peterson, these four peace-creep poltroons aren't worth the lives of the American soldiers or Iraqi intelligence assets and innocent bystanders who would be put at risk in rescuing them.  That they aren't is because they went to Iraq precisely to undermine our effort there.  That their intent may have been to raise funds for Jihad via their ransom should rank them even lower on the Coalition Forces' list of Things To Do Today.

On the upside, Jimmy Carter will be able to dedicate the new CPT installation at the Rachel Corrie wing of the Fifth Column Museum of Resistance.

Just curious by flyerhawk

but if it turns out that these people actually were captured and are murdered by terrorists, will you guys that are reveling in their plight come back and admit your error?

According to the linked article the hostages were part of Christian Peacemaker Teams.

http://www.cpt.org/publications/history.php

Christian Peacemaker Teams (CPT) arose from a call in 1984 for Christians to devote the same discipline and self-sacrifice to nonviolent peacemaking that armies devote to war.  Enlisting the whole church in an organized, nonviolent alternative to war, today CPT places violence-reduction teams in crisis situations and militarized areas around the world at the invitation of local peace and human rights workers. CPT embraces the vision of unarmed intervention waged by committed peacemakers ready to risk injury and death in bold attempts to transform lethal conflict through the nonviolent power of God's truth and love.

Initiated by Mennonites, Brethren and Quakers with broad ecumenical participation, CPT's ministry of Biblically-based and spiritually-centered peacemaking emphasizes creative public witness, nonviolent direct action and protection of human rights.

A strategy developed thoughtfully over the years has taught us that:

    * trained, skilled, international teams can work effectively to support local efforts toward nonviolent peacemaking;

    * "getting in the way" of injustice through direct nonviolent intervention, public witness and reporting to the larger world community can make a difference;

    * peace team work engages congregations, meetings and support groups at home to play a key advocacy role with policy makers.

 

I didn't think that Menonites would be so roundly condemned here at RedState.

from this thread since earlier today in the vain hopes that the tone of it would improve. Obviously not.

I used quotes not because I, personally, was impugning the motives of those who were abducted but because others seemed to see the term as pejorative.

How, pray tell, are these people undermining the US effort? Because they have made it their mission to assist people who've been detained?

I thought the current mission was to bring democracy and freedom to Iraq. I presume that means a functioning judicial system as well.

As we all are undoubtedly aware, in a democracy there's a little matter of being innocent until proven guilty. One would assume that those who've been detained by the authorities in Iraq have such a privilege. In which case they are entitled to assistance under legal means. Without getting too far off topic allow me to observe that many here made the same point about Tom Delay's current troubles.

I also hasten to point out (as have others) that it is mere speculation that these people are "victims" as you put it.

Tunnel vision by civil truth

I have loosely tracked the Christian pacifist/peacemaking movement since the 70's. The intentions of most of the leaders seem genuine, rooting in a Christian/Biblical sensitivity, but what I've seen over the years is a development of tunnel vision as to which groups merit entering into solidarity with, which in turn has led to dulling of critical thinking and a tendency to line up with the biases of the political left. In short, I think CPT has gotten co-opted by the political left, which unfortunately leaves them rightly vulnerable to receiving attacks from RedState readers. But considering the spectrum of political and religious groups in the U.S., I don't think that CPT deserves a nuclear response.

Point of Order by Robert A. Hahn
    As we all are undoubtedly aware, in a democracy there's a little matter of being innocent until proven guilty.

You are conflating two separate things here. Mexico is a democracy. In Mexico, you are guilty until proven innocent. Saddam's Iraq was a democracy. In fact he won the presidency with 100% of the vote. In Saddam's Iraq, you were guilty. Period.

By majority vote, Iraq has adopted Sharia as the basis of its legal system. So when the Iraqi authorities detain someone, they can expect to be processed under Islamic law. I don't have the slightest idea whether that means they are innocent until proven guilty, and I suspect you don't either. So don't tell us what we ought to presume.

Ockham's razor by civil truth

Given the choice between an elaborately staged phony kidnapping of CPT workers (a deceit that would fundamentally violate their Christian faith) versus a real kidnapping of overt Christians by unreliable groups that view all Christians as infidels who should be converted, driven out, or killed and a history of gruesome murder of hostages (or even just a kidnapping for ransom), Ockham's razor favors the presumption of a genuine kidnapping.

Thus, if indeed the kidnapping is genuine, we will have another tragic tale of people assuming that others reason and behave as they do and probably ending up as martyrs. If this was staged, then these workers have truly lost their moral compass and have grievously strayed from the "narrow path" -- and indeed they might end up dying anyway if their untrustworthy kidnappers turn out to be have their own agenda.

Time will tell, but in the meanwhile, we should all be able to agree that we would desire their safe return.

claiming that Saddam's Iraq was a democracy?

Regardless of whether the current Iraqi system is on par with the niceties of that of the US, one can still presume that not all who are detained are, in fact, guilty.

Nice bit of obfuscation, though, since your post does not address the central point of mine. Which is (in case I didn't make myself clear) the inhumanity towards others and the tone of glee with which some posters are anticipating the death of the hostages.

And before you rap my knuckles I'll point out that one poster has referred to the above mentioned outcome as a "thinning of the herd". IMHO that is disgusting. Your mileage may vary.

American and British Christians.

    even if solely intended to tangentially reinforce your pro-life credentials

I don't have any pro-life credentials. I avoid abortion threads like the plague. I have only spoken to Father Pavone one time, and that was about his web site.

No, I just thought I'd return the favor of poking the guy with a pointy stick. I took the bet that anybody who'd say what he did was a pro-abort, so that's the pointy stick I grabbed. If the guy came in here to make us all feel guilty, but in fact is one of those people who defends stabbing babies in the head with scissors, then he deserved it.

You need to understand that there are people here who do not take this kidnapping at face value. It is not that they have no sympathy for the victims; it is that they do not believe that they are really victims. They suspect this is a stunt. There are some obvious reasons to suspect that.

Right now no one knows which position is correct. So there is no reason to award you the moral high ground you seem to be claiming.

Gamecock,

Check out this essay, which echoes your sentiment about Ghandi's tactics working best on American and British Christians.

Give it a rest. You do the same thing. The other day the Islamofascists blew up a mosque full of Shites. I didn't see you coming in here to offer condolences. Admit: you blew it off.

We all do. We have to. If Ted Koppel got on there every night and showed us the photos and names of all the people who died in car accidents the day before, along with little stories about how their kids were now orphans, we would all go nuts.

There is a limit to how much human misery any of us can stand. And the news media makes sure we all get overdosed every day. 160 die in mine explosion in China. You blew them off too, didn't you. Here's a thousand killed in an earthquake. A ferry sank. A plane crashed. The Evil Grisly Killer struck again. Bodies of children recovered.

There's just too much of it. At some point, the defense mechanisms kick in.

Another Gandhi essay by blackhedd

Try this one too. I think you'll find it pretty shocking. I think Churchill's assessment of Gandhi was pretty astute, but then I think Churchill was astute about almost everything.

Humor and the Darwin Awards by ConservativeMutant

I think this situation falls into more or less the same category as the Darwin Awards, given to people who play catch with old hand grenades, check the levels of volatile substances in tanks with lighters, and so on. In this case, of course, it was a moral presumption that did them in: they figured that the US armed forces were the bad guys, and out to get them, and that the insurgents were the good guys, and weren't.  Now, granted, people tend to be somewhat less predictable than, say, the laws of physics, so there's more of a "tragic misjudgement" gray area, but if you accept a certain amount of black humor in people offing themselves through their own foolishness, this would seem to qualify.

Regardless, it seems remarkably crass to prefer that the captives be "taught a lesson" to the capture or violent demise of the decapitators.

Huh by flyerhawk

they figured that the US armed forces were the bad guys, and out to get them, and that the insurgents were the good guys, and weren't.

How did you come up with this?  

These people seemed have found that violence was the enemy.  Why assign a political agenda to a group that has consistently shown their actual agenda has little to do with American politics?

if we can conclude this amicably.

I'll concede your pointy stick argument as well.  I believe it was insensitive given the subject under discussion, but it appears it may have been on point with the individual poster to which you were responding.  Also, when I said "Nick, again...", the "again" was not so much referenced to you or any of your preceding posts, but rather to the general direction I saw this thread heading...the one which generated my original petition for RS editor intervention.

I assume you've checked out my posting history so you know I'm no troll.  If you got around to viewing my posts regarding Plamegate, you'll know that one of the things that pushes my buttons is condemnation based on speculation.  I had some pretty passionate disagreements with folks calling for the heads of Rove, Cheney, et. al., based on nothing but presumption.  My starting point is the same here.  And to me the presumption of co-conspiracy in this case looks pretty thin, while the condemnation of these people to the fate that they are facing is infinitely worse.  Therefore, at this point in time, it is wrong IMO to view this as anything other than a tragedy.

That said, based on your responses, I trust you will be the first to condemn the actions of the terrorists if they follow through with their threat, just as I have said (below) that I would be the first to denounce the actions of the activists if this proves to have been staged (by which I mean, not merely their successful release/escape, but rather proof of their culpability/collaberation).  And let us all pray that these activists do indeed live to see Dec 9th, and are eventually liberated and re-united with their families.

Take a little trip to Pallywood:

http://www.seconddraft.org/movies.php

...or perhaps a stroll down Haifa Street:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/005/503bbelu.
asp

nobody here is saying "screw 'em",  we've just seen this kind of thing before.

Is that where we go when we kick the bucket? ;)

...that we didn't destroy Moqtada al Sadr when we had the chance, thank the CPT Tools,who were complicit in allowing his wolves to escape among Sistani's sheep.  The CPT may have started out with noble intentions but have become true Dovesnakes with their "Human Shields for Baghdad" and "Adopt-a Detainee" circuses.  

Up thread, you characterized CPT as "...a group that has consistently shown their actual agenda has little to do with American politics...", but you should check out their antics on our borders before you stand by that statement.

I must admit that I detest these folks as much as Kos hates American civilian contractors, but I hope for their safe return combined with some new perspective and a healthy dose of doubt about the organization to which they belong.

That's a good one.. by Jackal4444

which I might have to hang onto.  But in this case, No, just a short in my internal spell checker.

 
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