Sen - VA: Allen (R) 47% - Warner (D) 43%
By Adam C Posted in User Blogs — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Rasmussen reports that a hypothetical matchup between incumbent Senator Allen of VA and current Governor Warner shapes up thus:
George Allen (R) 47%
Mark Warner (D) 43%
Other 2%
That's low for an incumbent, but stronger than one might expect given that Warner is more popular in the state:
The numbers for Warner are 65% favorable and 26% unfavorable. Senator Allen is viewed favorably by 59% and unfavorably by 29%.
The numbers suggest continuation of a trend we saw in Election 2004--Senate races are increasingly tied to perceptions of the President and the national image of Republicans and Democrats.
The nationalization of races is good for Republicans in the medium run as there are more Republican states than Democratic ones. It will help in 2006 in TN, FL, NE, WV, ND, and VA while hurting in RI and MD. Swing states will be swinging either way including MN, PA, WI, and MI. Overall, that's a good place for Republicans to be.