Redstate

that an incumbent has much to worry about until their numbers drop to about 40%.  The only guys who need to be worried right now are Santorum and Dewine.  

The thing about these SurveyUSA polls of Senators' approval/disapproval ratings is their samples are just adults over 18+ (look at the very bottom of the poll's result page linked in the post to find the info on the sample).

A poll with a sample of registered or likely voters would be better in terms of showing how good (or bad) the Senators' re-election prospects.

52-48 Ricky wins




First of all, anyone from PA knows Bob Casey wants to be a Governor, not in the US Senate, let alone to campaign for it with MoveOn at your side.




This pro-life, moderate Democrat will loose in 2006 for the same reason Kerry lost in 04, a passionless candidate can't motivate the loonly left wing base.




Secondly, Kerry's staffers made the mistake of thinking people who don't like W equal votes for Kerry.  Politics doesnt work that way, not always at least.




You can bet that Santorum supporters will outnumber Santorum haters in Nov 06, because the haters have no reason to vote for a hapless Bob Casey.

That's a fairly uncompelling argument in support of Sen. Santorum.

You've presented a series of unsubstantiated premises then drawn a firm conclusion.

I hope Santorum's reelect campaign is thinking his campaign through in a more detailed, efficient way. Otherwise, he's in serious trouble.

but I do think PA breaks for Rick and I am sure Ricky's camp is planning some ideas.

Well of course, buford...but I think there's lots of truth to the simple explanation I presented above.

One point about SurveyUSA's methodology, which members of the survey research community (both academic and commercial) generally find a little shady. The reason they are able to do these 50-state polls is that they have automated recorded calls (not actual human beings) conduct their surveys. This means their response rates are abysmal (I've heard sometimes under 5%), meaning that the people they do contact are abnormal (highly interested in politics, loners, etc.)

We have compensated for this. We now have recordings that answer them.

Republicans are taking all the heat for America's struggles, they are bloodied by the media every day. No one should be surprised if we lose some public support. Democrats should be on the rebound, since they have their nothing-is-our-fault and Iraq-war-ate-your-babies strategies perfected. Tell me - why are they losing support? Why are Little Debbie, Maria Cantwell, Ben Nelson losing support?

Even at a low ebb, America trusts and supports Republicans. The only number that almost surprises me is Tom Coburn. I expected him to be higher. Perhaps people want him to take a more vocal role similar to the role he took while in the House.

Don't trust any polling on Sen. Santorum. He has not begun to spend money, Ed Rendell is less electable by the day. This race has not even begun.

Why are Senators Collins and Snowe always popular? Collins is an adequate senator but what has she done? I was surprised to see her as high on the list as she is. Senator Snowe is more popular among my Democrat acquaintances in Maine than she is amongst Republicans, but she does serve a purpose; I sense if she retired that seat might go to Democrats. I also respect her vote against CAFTA.

I am most comforted by the low rankings for Barbara Boxer. The people of California clearly do not appreciate her Bush-bashing and her shrillness.

See my post above. SurveyUSA numbers always seem fishy to me, and for good reason. I just don't think they have good methodological practices.

is he is a good campaigner.

He has taken some hits recently, and considering how vulnerable his seat is, I think the moveon crowd is going to target him ruthlessly.  This will either hurt him, or it may help him if the ads and attacks seem unfair.

Santorum is going to have a very tough fight, but Casey is going to have to run a good campaign, if he wants to win.

Kerry, not Bush, won Pennsylvania in 2004.

They were the most accurate in PA in 2004.

They cost Democrats up to two Congressional seats in Pennsylvania last year. Ask Lois Murphy about Michael Moore R Us. She was buried in ads educating viewers about her allegiance to the far left. She is running against Gerlach again next year, giving all the better opportunity to run the ads against her and Casey. If we're lucky, Ginny Schrader will run again. Her entire campaign last year was about abortion. The true face of Move On, and a part of what Casey has accepted from that cabal and from Teresa Heinz Kerry.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.  If a survey has bad methodology, but happens to get something right, it's statistical coincidence, not evidence that the poll works.

I think he meant Kerry lost overall not in Pennsylvania.

I think that Santorum is toast unless Arlen Spector goes out there and fights for him the way that Santorum and Bush went to bat for Spector.

If Santorum can get through the primary (which I think he can) and Spector will go to bat for him in the general, then he'll win.

Otherwise, I think he's gone.

They are usually the most popular.  Take the top 5 from this list:

Snowe, Collins, Obama, Dorgan, McCain.  Except for newcomer Obama, these are all relative moderates.  3 of them are in "opposite-color" states: Snowe, Collins, and Dorgan.

As for "what have they done," I bet Snowe and Collins get high marks for independence, keeping the religious right in check, common sense governance, "The Deal," and other moderate stances.

Finally, as a Coburn supporter (and OK voter) during the 2004 season I'm a little down on him right now.  He spends his time fighting to be allowed to practice medicine and decrying stem cell research while voting in huge pork bills.  I'm a social moderate so I'm not as worried as him about "rampant lesbianism" but I supported him because I thought he would stand up to leadership on pork politics and runaway spending.  So I'm definitely feeling let down right now.

folks who are truly worried about rampant lesbianism in high schools bathrooms (wasn't it?) don't really spend all that much time in the calm, logical, dispassionate world of the fiscon.

He was repeating a quote from someone else: paraphrased "I was told by a mother in SE Oklahoma that there is rampant lesbianism in their high schools and that girls can't go to the bathroom alone for fear..."

But it was sympathetic to the view.  Coburn had an awesome track record in the House of standing up to Republicans who wanted to spend too much.  He wrote a book on his battles with Republican leadership and how career politicans are pulled into becoming "insiders."  It was quite inspiring to me.  He was endorsed by the Club for Growth for his tireless efforts in the House including a one-man filibuster in the House that cut hundreds of millions of pork off a bill.  He once recorded a phone message if a committee chair offering his millions in pork money to vote for a bill.  He went public with it even though the committee chair was a Republican.  He was really a one man force for fiscal conservatism.

Let me make my argument for Santorum's victory more firm.  Almost six years ago, Santorum ran for reelection and defeated a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat named Ron Klink, a congressman from Santorum's own backyard.  That same year Al Gore carried PA.  The liberals could vote for wacky Gore but not for a wishy washy Klink.


Bobby Casey's ideology is similar to Klink and may not motivated the Democrat base




You might say Casey has won three times statewide in PA!


But how much do positions on abortion and guns matter when you are running to get elected State Auditor and State Treasurer?!?!  When Casey ran for a real political office, i.e. Dem. nomination for Governor...liberal Rendell trumped him in '02.




This is a different race for Bobby Casey.

I thought that Casey was pro-life (or at least claims that he is and campaigns as if he is) and that he also runs and campaigns as if he's a NRA poster-boy.  I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that's why the Dems are running him.

There are three reasons he's running:

1. They like his daddy's name (despite the fact that they didn't actually like his Daddy in the 90's)
   
2. He campaigns like he's a moderate Republican.
   
3. They like his daddy's name.  (well, it's not like there's really three reasons).

I think that Santorum has the moxy to pull it off, but Casey (on paper) is a tough opponent.  

I agree that the fact that Santorum ran in 2000 and got almost as many votes as Gore got.

Year 2000

Bush -2,281,127           Gore- 2,485,967

Klink - 2,154,908         Santorum - 2,481,962

That's pretty impressive.

Coburn wore his faith and his morals on his sleeve during the campaign, and he said he would continue to practice medicine. At the time the Senate leadership never told him - as far as I remember - to stop practicing. I can understand why he is upset. What I can't understand is why he voted for CAFTA when he opposed similar legislation as a Congressman. I had my doubts about CAFTA and I hoped he would at least help spark some debate on the issue, even if he voted yes. Perhaps being a senator is not what he expected. I hope he can find his groove so to speak because many Oklahomans of all parties supported him last year, and they will still support him if they have good reason.

"The Deal" and that letter Collins and Snowe wrote trying to get Sandra Day O'Connor to stay on the Supreme Court were suspect, from my point of view. I know Collins helped with the terrorism bill passed last year, but she is so far in Snowe's shadow I had no idea she would place ahead of ninety-eight other senators.

The explanation for both of their standings is that your view on a Senator is not the same as most people's view.

Coburn voted for CAFTA.  Thankfully.  It's the only major vote that he has voted for the economically small government side.  Remember that in a state that gave Bush 66% of the vote, Coburn got through with 52%.  There is a wide swath of moderate Republicans who are not happy with him.  His obsession with religious right issues and his own medical practice while foresaking small government conservatism will hurt him with this crowd.

Collins and Snowe are "suspect from [your] point of view" and that is exactly why they are so popular in Maine.  Being honest with yourself, how do you think you'd do in a state-wide race in ME.  I'm sure they are less popular with rank and file Republicans, but they are palatable to moderate Dems and they appeal stronly to the forgotten 40% of the state that doesn't fit into the R/D divide.  That is the same group that McCain speaks to.  You get high marks when those non-partisans support you.  That's the group that is rejecting Coburn and approving Collins, Snowe and McCain.

Let's think about this logistically...

Yes, having an approval in the upper 40s is no sign of sure victory.  But you generally have to face a well-financed, popular, politically astute challenger to lose under those conditions.  That is certainly not the case for Kyl or Burns on our side, nor is it the case for Nelson, Cantwell, or Stabenow on their side.

Then you have the retirements.  Corzine will be in the NJ governor's mansion.  Frist will be retiring.  Dayton's gone.  TN looks solid GOP, the other two are up in the air.

And yes, Hoeven and Byrd could face serious challenges, but with those approval ratings, it would probably take a good GOP year in addition to a good challenger like Capito or Hoeven to bring them down.  2006 doesn't look to be that year.

The way I see it, the following seats are in real trouble:

GOP seats: Santorum (low approval plus popular challenger); DeWine (low approval plus state GOP problems); Chafee (because it's just hard to be the most liberal Republican in the nation and survive)

Dem seats: MN (open seat plus strong GOP candidate); MD (open seat, divided Democrats, strong GOP candidate); NJ (unknown appointed Dem Senator v. Kean, Jr.)

That was a very long way of saying nothing will change in 2006 in the Senate.  At best, we'll get lucky and net one seat.

I predict Santorum loses, Chafee holds on, Kennedy wins, Steele wins, and we either keep OH or trade it for NJ.  

GOP plus 1.

I haven't seen any polls on CAFTA. Did most people support CAFTA? Is free trade popular in Oklahoma? I think we needed more time to study the effects of NAFTA. I also thought Coburn had opposed free trade while in the House of Representatives. I might be mistaken. Coburn stomped his opponent by nearly fifteen points, with seven points going to an anti-war independent. Coburn was outspent, the media tried to force him out of the race, but he won as a very socially conservative man who told voters he would continue to practice medicine. If voters are turning against him because of his morals or his medical practice, they weren't paying attention last year.

I don't know if most people would support agreeing to help the minority party obstruct judicial nominees, or with asking a justice to stay on the bench after she has already announced her retirement (particularly when Justice O'Connor's husband is ill and she should be able to enjoy her time with him while he is still lucid). For this alone I am more wary of Snowe and Collins.

I'm holding off strong predictions until we see about Hoeven (who is even more popular than Conrad, #1 of the GOVs) and Capito.  Those races would at least divert funds if not provide wins as well.  It does seem that movements will be small in the Senate.  Dems +2 to Rep +3 is about as big as a swing could be unless a national tide flows strongly one way or the other.

He won 53-41 in a state where the President won 66-34 and took every county.

So he won 53% of the vote and his support is now in the low 40s.  I think the religious voters still support him.  The ones he has lost since the election are those who wanted to see more fiscal conservatism and saw him as someone who would shake it up in Washington.  I don't think he'd lose an election if he were facing one now, but that doesn't mean being socially conserative and fiscally liberal is a winning message for Republicans.

As for Snowe and Collins, I understand your (and most Republican activists) worries about them.  But similar to McCain sometimes upseting activists can make a candidate much more appealing to the non-activists in the country who far outnumber the activists.  Snowe, Collins, and McCain have done that well.  The main difference is that McCain is a conservative at heart who loves attention wheras Snowe and Collins are moderates at heart doing what they believe in regardless of what the party wants.

Wish it would have been Watts instead of Coburn.

Coburn's opponent heavily campaigned (Kerry did not even visit Oklahoma), his opponent was a popular Congressman who voted against gays and voted for the 2nd Amendment. The media blared inflammatory headlines painting Coburn as Dr. Mengeles. I think a twelve point victory was strong under those circumstances. I agree he may have lost support of those who expected an outsider.

I don't have any personal objection to Senators Collins or Snowe, beyond our differing views on life and guns, I was merely surprised they would be the first and second most popular senators. For me, The Deal and the letter they wrote to Justice O'Connor were not moderate, they were a mistake. Apparently voters in Maine do not agree, and they have the final say.

If Cardin wins the Democrat primary, I think he will squeak out a win (barring socially conservative African American Democrats moving to Steele, which is possible). If Mfume wins the primary, Steele will win commandingly.

....apparently Pennsylvania accepts a candidate like Kerry against a candidate like Bush.

1. Isn't Capito out already?
   
2. I've seen fairly recent standard-methodology polls that give much lower negatives to Nelson, Cantwell, Burns and Stabenow. In fact, the last poll I saw from a month ago had Nelson at something like 40/10, with Katherine Harris' negatives in the high 40s. Also, I recall Burns being in the mid-20s and above 50 on the plus side. That doesn't mean that he might not face a strong challenge, but I think he's in better shape than indicated here.

What do you think happened to him?  

I fear that the message came down from high that if you have ambition in the party you'd better vote for these bills or we will bury you.  If that's the case, we (the American people, fiscons - take your pick, streiff takes umbrage if I use "we" and don't define) have got bigger problems than we know.

But, maybe I am too cynical.

Capito has not announced and is playing very coy.  She says she will choose by this Fall.

Please link to some other polls if you have seen them recently, the comparison would be quite helpful.  My general impression is similar to what you are saying but I don't have the numbers to back that up.

I do wonder whether recruitment on both sides has suffered for the simple reason that this is no longer a 50-50 or 51-49 Senate where a top-tier challenger can make a difference.

candidates.  It may be the 50/50 thing, but I also wonder if candidates aren't in the mood to fool with the political nastiness that is the senate right now.

But some of these races you would think the GOP and/or DNC could get a strong candidate to run.

Explain to me the dynamics of this race.

Knowing little about MD politics, other than it's that quasi-socialist state across the Potomac from me, it seems that Steele would actually have a better chance against Cardin due to working class blacks feeling cheated out of their candidate after a divisive primary.  Wouldn't those same blue collar blacks go for Steele over another elitist white liberal?  Or is that vote cancelled out by all of the white moderates who will back Cardin but not Mfume?  

Coburn's gonna be fine overall, in spite of some of these early foibles.

But let's hear it for JC Watts for President in 08, 12, or 16

ps -- this coming from an Okla State alum, i.e., OU hater

"this coming from an Okla State alum, i.e., OU hater"

I thought this was going to be a fine friendship.  See in this world, there are two types of people "us" and "them."  You are now officially part of "them" to me. :)

I have a good number of MD stories that you can find through that link, each with a slew of comments to boot.

My main take on strategy is here.

And the most recent polling numbers are here.

Michael Steele (R) 40%

Ben Cardin (D) 45%

Other 4%

Michael Steele (R) 47%

Kweisi Mfume (D) 40%

Other 4%

Bill Nelson has done enough damage in FL. I don't understand how it is that he won the election last time, but I think with his actions in the last few years, voters should get rid of him.

To bad I won't be voting in FL this year. I would have loved to put in my vote to fire him.

Klink had to fight through a divisive three-way primary, and chose to do that by staying in SW PA and consolidating his base.  When it came time for the general election, he was unable to reach out to the SE PA liberal base of the party for activism or fundraising.

And he still barely lost.

Well, over the years the AntiChrist has had various names:

Barry Switzer (before he was called 'Gunsmoke')

Thomas Lott

Billy Sims

Tony Casillas

Jamielle Holloway (spelling?)

JC Watts (before he became, well, JC Watts)

and now Adrian Peterson

But as much as you are the perpetual nemesis, at least my Pokes, unlike those gelded steers in Austin, have hung some losses on you guys in recent years (99,01,and 02 by my recollection).

yes, yes... we do let you win sometimes so you don't cry in the corner.

FWIW, I didn't attend OU.  I went "away" to school and my sister is actually at OSU.  I was raised as a Sooner and I watched every game possible while away at school (and still do).

And thanks for all the reminders why OU rocks so much.

Another way to argue this, of course, is to point out that

1. after a vigorous primary where the Dems had center stage at the State level with all sorts of free and paid media to hash out their differences and explain why they were obviously the better candidate to defeat Santorum;
   
2. in a favorable year for Dems (good economy, low employment, popular President) and in a State where the dem presidential candidate outperformed the opposition party by about 300,000 or so odd votes; and
   
3. Santorum was, even then, dismissed as a right-wing nut-job who didn't understand Pennsylvanians, wanted to outlaw abortion, give every red-neck a gun, and force every non-Catholic to convert

Santorum still managed to pick up at least 300,000 of those same voters that preferred the sitting vice president and inventor of the internet over the cowboy from Texas. (to mis-characterize just a smidgeon)

So whether you want to say that Klink 'barely' lost or 'almost' won, I think we'll settle with actual victories, thank you very much.

My 'Wanted Dead or Alive' list would be the same as your Hall of Fame.

Notably absent from the list was the great Coach Blake.  Hard to hate a guy who dismantled OU football quicker than the Clintons trashed the military...

Sorry, that's REALLY not being nice.  OK, let me atone by saying how much more I appreciate Roy Williams since he came to Dallas (his disappointing 2004 notwithstanding, the Night Train will be bringing it this year, since they finally moved him to SS).

FWIW, I was born and raised in God's Country, but went across the Red River for college.

Klink never got his message out.  He never campaigned in SE PA dring his primary, and was near broke after the primary and unable to reload.

In the general, Gore-Bush overwhelmed the field, and Santorum's re-election ended up being seen as inevitable.  link:

Mr. Santorum entered the general election campaign this past summer with some $4.5 million on hand, compared to a paltry $565,000 for Mr. Klink who was forced to take out a second mortgage on his house to help pay the campaign bills.

It hasn't helped: Polls have consistently shown Mr. Santorum with a double-digit lead among likely voters.

. . . Big-name national Democrats, including President Clinton, Senator Boxer, Senator Kennedy and political strategist James Carville, have descended on Pennsylvania in recent weeks to stump for Mr. Klink. These attempts to fire up the party's base produced some results -- an October 2 fund-raiser with Ms. Boxer netted some $75,000 -- but they have not neutralized the damage done by months of indifference that allowed Mr. Santorum to wage a mostly one-sided battle on the airwaves.

"Klink has had a significant problem raising money in the southeastern part of the state," said Mr. Groen, a Jewish attorney and chairman of the Montgomery County Democratic Committee. "On at least some issues, he is more conservative than the people around here are used to -- especially those who do a lot of the fund-raising."

In an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer, Mr. Klink blasted his "fair-weather friends" in Philadelphia's Democratic circles, and complained that "some fund-raisers have turned their backs on the campaign."

. . .

"Klink has had no presence on television. A lot of people on the street aren't even aware of him," Mr. Hyman said. "In the Philadelphia market, Hoeffel is on more than Klink."

Speaking as a native Ohioan (now living in MD), I'd hate for my state to be traded for New Jersey (sorry, couldn't resist).  I think that much of the picture there depends on who the nominee for governor is.  The state GOP chairman is officially neutral, but he's been making some sounds of late that suggest the party expects Blackwell to get the nod.  That should be good news down the ticket, because it will motivate voters who are sick of the RINOs who keep popping up on the ballots to show up and elect an actual conservative.  Also, the moonbats will be on the state like flies on a dairy farm, and there aren't many Dems who have shown they can keep them away if they wanted to.  That has the potential to swing a few fence-sitters this way.  It's also entirely possible that DeWine won't be around for the general election, although the fellow Hritz who's challenging him in the primary is not a politician.

I do not know the dynamics of the race but due to his personal scandals and his scandals at NAACP, I have heard there are many African Americans who will not support him. They think he is corrupt and gives them a bad name. Since Cardin is an empty suit who follows along the lines of blue collar Sarbanes and Mikulski (they each had the same Congressional seat, Sarbanes first, then Mikulski, now Cardin), he will also (unless he runs a lazy or horrible campaign) get a very large chunk of the statewide vote. Steele could defeat him, but I do not know enough about Lt. Governor Steele's campaigning style or abilities to make any assumptions about his ability to draw voters. He is certainly a far superior candidate to Mfume and the voters of Maryland clearly know it.

"Even at a low ebb, America trusts and supports Republicans"

Hmmm:  average Repub. approval rate:  21%

       average Dem.   approval rate: 27.5%

(that's a 30% + difference)

It looks as though America trusts and supports Democratic senators more by this survey.

Also, note, ALL of the negative-approval rated senators are republican.

Do not confuse Boxer's low ratings in CA for any disatisfaction with her shrieking about Bush.  Bush is near an all time low for any President with an approval rating of 34%, according to the latest California Field Poll, and fast closing in on the all time champ, Richard Nixon, who wins that contest with 32% at the height of Watergate.  And that poll was taken last month before gas hit $3 bucks a gallon.

The polls last year showed that 59% of Californians thought Boxer was more liberal than they were.  The reason for her reelection had more to do with the Republican Party of CA being under new leadership and the inability to find a candidate who was really willing to run against her.  Instead, an empty suit was the sacrificial lamb.

Bush bashing probably increased her standing in the polls, not decreased it.  In any event, she's in until 2010.

Every day the media encourags people to blame Republicans for their problems. Republicans have the White House and Congress. Democrats always tell people nothing is their fault. By all rights, Democrats should be ahead of Republicans in this poll. Yet they barely have a 5% lead. Look at some of the most popular Democrats:

• Obama has received international press fawning for over a year.
• Dorgan is a quiet senator from a state that shows deep trust and love in their politicians unless given a reason not to do so.
• Carper is very quiet and does not draw attention to himself.
• Lieberman is derided as a Republican by most Democrats.

With the exception of Leahy, none of the popular Democrats are troublemakers or heavy Bush-bashers. The Democrats who have the most voice in their party are lower on the list. Most of the Democrats up for reelection next year are lower on the list.

Most of the Republicans who are low on the list have been constantly attacked by the media (Coburn, Santorum), have cast unpopular votes or taken controversial and negative stands (DeWine, Voinovich), were never fully accepted by voters (Murkowski was appointed), or ran such a bitter, divisive campaign against a fellow Republican, many still can't forget (Martinez).

Most of these people are not up for reelection for some time. Only Sen. Santorum is in serious danger of losing to a Democrat.

Considering the present national media climate, I think the poll is as good as Republicans can expect.

The polls last year showed that 59% of Californians thought Boxer was more liberal than they were.  The reason for her reelection had more to do with the Republican Party of CA being under new leadership and the inability to find a candidate who was really willing to run against her.  Instead, an empty suit was the sacrificial lamb.

This is correct. Boxer is pretty far outside the political mainstream even in California, and I think she'd be vulnerable to a good candidate.

Regrettably, the California Republican Party simply does not have its ducks in a row, and continues to run clowns against her.

Clarification - I meant she was appointed in 2003. She was elected in her own right last year.

As a Tennessean, I think the big shocker could be Harold Ford, Jr. winning the Senate seat when Frist retires.

I'm saying this because there are several Republicans running that don't have the star power to beat Ford and they all have some baggage. It's too bad Marsha Blackburn didn't get in or Zach Wamp. They could have carried the seat easy. As it is, it seems that Corker will attempt to hold the seat.

I hope I'm wrong about this.

You guys have a politician named Zach Wamp?