The Sunday Morning Talk Shows - Review

By Mark Kilmer Posted in Comments (27) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

This week, Russ Feingold (MTP) did not explain why he thinks our troops should be out of Iraq by New Years Eve, 2006, except that it was a date certain. He sees dates certain as things which help goals to be accomplished. Lindsey Graham (FNS) wants to hold Congressional hearings into the high price of gasoline.

Bill Richardson (FNS, TW) wants to combat illegal aliens with lasers and give them free education. Trent Lott (MTP) narrowly escaped helping David Gregory lynch the President. Bush Administration economic advisor Glenn Hubbard (FTN) favors gasoline taxes to prevent people from using too much gasoline. George Allen and Chuck Hagel (TW) are ready for '08.

And Carl Levin (LE) wants the President to threaten to cut and run from Iraq. Duncan Hunter, same show, says that we have to stay the course, keep moving forward, which neither the Dems nor Hagel think is a strategy.

[The show-by-show review is beneath the fold.]

RUSS FEINGOLD ON MTP. Subbing for Tim Russert on Meet the Press, NBC's David Gregory turned his attention to Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold, a Democrat with a sketch for a timetable. Feingold explained that "we're not getting the leadership" we need in regards to the Iraq war, stressing that there was no timetable: "Let's see if we can have a target date which will work." Feingold's proposed date, regardless of whether it will work for whatever, is December 31, 2006.

Feingold explained to Gregory that we've had all sorts of timetables in Iraq – for the transfer of sovereignty, for elections, for the constitution, etc. – and they seem to work, so why not have one for withdrawal.

Feingold thinks there should be a "middle course" in Iraq policy, something between "stay the course" and "cut-and-run." His course, he said, will allow us both success and "to return to… the war on terror." He defined success by, in a sense, qualifying it: success "should be consistent with our fight against terrorism in the world."

It went on like this, then Gregory asked if we were better or worse without Saddam Hussein in power. One should think this question rhetorical, and Feingold had no problem answering: "Much better without Saddam." He then complained that Iraq had become a training ground for terrorists who were running around the world blowing things up. (He offered no specific instances of this happening.)

Gregory asked Russ if he were planning to run for President. Feingold said, in essence, "whatever." He's "focusing on the problem" and "angry with one-party rule." He wants to develop a platform which will help a "progressive candidate" to be elected in 2008, and if that candidate is him, whatever.

Asked if a Democrat could win in 2008, Feingold suggested that a Dem who cares about [fill in whatever] can win.

LINDSEY GRAHAM ON FNS. Host Chris Wallace of FOX News Sunday had as his first guest Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina). Wallace asked him about $2.60/gallon gasoline, and Graham explained that his constituents are "very disappointed in their Senator for not being able to reduce gas prices." (Perhaps the Gang of 14, of which Graham is a member, ought to resolve something concerning this.)

Graham said the recently-signed energy bill was a "major step forward," and Wallace cornered him on the bill's tax breaks for oil companies. Graham responded with talk of domestic drilling and the need to "reutilize our nuclear power." And the oil companies, he said, "have to answer for what's happening now." He suggested Congressional hearings: "It's probably time to do some hearings in Washington to find out why gas prices are so high."

Graham sees no "smoking gun" in the Roberts nomination. The newly released documents show that Roberts was a conservative attorney advising a conservative administration, Graham argued, and he seemed to imply that anyone advising President Reagan was going to be a little extreme.

BILL RICHARDSON ON FNS. Former Clinton Energy Secretary and U.N. ambassador, current New Mexico Governor, and possible 2008 Dem Presidential candidate Bill Richardson was on Fox News Sunday to talk immigration. You see, Richardson has just declared a "state of emergency" in New Mexico over the matter, and this is considered a big deal.

Richardson proclaimed that the President should bring State and local governments into immigration policy discussions, provide leadership, and must purchase lasers to detect illegal immigrants.

Richardson is willing to offer illegal immigrants who work hard and pay their taxes "amnesty," not citizenship. And, he says, "we need more border patrol agents."

He wants to give illegal aliens driver's licenses so they can purchase auto insurance, and "so that we know where they are." He wants to give them free education in order to "reward those who are having a positive impact on our State."

On Energy, host Wallace mentioned that during the Clinton years, dependency on foreign sources increased and domestic production deceased. Richardson said that he did not want to be partisan. Wallace pointed out that the Clinton Administration had opposed drilling in ANWR and nuclear power. Richardson offered only that ANWR drilling is minor. He demanded a "Marshall Plan" for energy, which I suppose he believes would lower gas prices while reconstructing Europe after a devastating war.

Wallace asked him how he hoped to beat Hillary for the 2008 Dem nomination, what with Hillary's commanding lead in some national poll. Richardson joked: "Chris, I can't hear you! I can't hear anything." He related that he is concerned now only with "being a good governor."

TRENT LOTT ON MTP. Dave Gregory had a shot at Senator Trent Lott (R-Mississippi) on Meet the Press. The Senator said that we should "allow the political process to take place" in Iraq, "stay the course." Gregory pulled up a Lott quote from the Mississippi Press in which Lott said basically that we eventually have to remind the Iraqis of what we've done for them, where they are, and tell them that they must "govern yourselves."

Lott said that he believes democracy is possible in Iraq.

Gregory then pinned him down, based on his book, on exactly when the President decided to invade Iraq, before or after the diplomatic maneuvers. Lott explained: "I think he felt like we'd have to deal with Iraq." This expression from the President came "before the diplomacy had taken place." And WMD were a part of it.

Gregory challenged: "It's clear that the focus was WMD, not terrorism." Lott explained that WMD was the main focus, but that was based on the intelligence they had. It was the "conglomeration" of the intelligence, not any specific bit of it.

Gregory launched in on Lott's remarks at the Strom Thurmond birthday event of several years ago. The Senator explained that the comment was not in his prepared remarks; rather, it was a joke "to make a 100-year-old man feel good." He reiterated that it the statement was wrong and 'insensitive." He noted that he could not have voted for Thurmond anyway, as he was "6 or 7 when he ran."

The Strom Thurmond of whom he had been thinking when he made the comment, Lott said, was the Senate leader of later years, the one who had fought for national defense and equal protection.

Gregory asked if the Senator would again challenge for the leadership post, and Lott explained that new Senators had come along, friends all, and filled the spots. "You don't have to be a leader to be a constructive force."

He expressed that "it takes affirmative action – you have to work at it" – to bring people into a system from which they had been previously included.

Gregory confronted the Senator about his refusal to vote for a resolution apologizing for lynching in the early to middle 20th Century." Lott explained that he didn't co-sponsor the measure, but he did support it. He doesn't "go for these resolutions," he explained, preferring to work on measures of substance, on actual remedies as opposed to words.

Gregory argued that the President had turned on Lott after the Thurmond remark, basically forcing him to resign. He played a clip of the President distancing himself from Lott's remark. Lott explained that he agreed with what the President said, but Gregory kept pressing, declaring that if it weren't for the President's actions, Lott would not have had to resign.

The Senator did not take the bait. No MSM-provoked intra-party divisions here, nothing to see, move on.

FTN, GAS PRICES, AND RECESSION. Sub-host John Roberts opened CBS's Face the Nation by asking: "Gas prices: How high will the go?" His guests were Bush Council of Economic Advisors member Glenn Hubbard and former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich.

Hubbard said that there would be "continued upward pressure" on gasoline prices, but the pressure would diminish "in coming months." Reich argued that the high gas prices were "clearly having an effect" on the economy, and he cited Wal-Mart as "one of the barometers for the economy."

Hubbard declared that chances for a recession were remote, and he predicted "above 4%" GDP growth in the 3rd quarter. Reich declared that a recession was possible, given the three things which he said could cause one now: fuel prices, the housing bubble, and the deficit. None are doing so just yet, however.

Roberts wanted to throw political blame for the high gas prices, but Reich advised that it was simply a matter of supply and demand. (Remember that in April, 2004, then-candidate JF Kerry suggested that he would "jawbone" the OPEC nations about fuel prices, bringing them down. It was one of the better laugh lines of the recent campaign.)

Open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Reich responded, "I don't think that's a good idea, John." He reminded that the strategic reserve was for national emergencies, and that it was meaningless when Clinton opened them in 2000 due to high heating oil prices.

Roberts suggested reducing gas taxes, and Hubbard, the Bush guy, said that this wouldn't do any good, either. High gas taxes were necessary, he argued, to "mitigate consumption." For the government artificially to force people to use less gasoline.

Reich warned Fed Chair Alan Greenspan to forget about inflation, insisting that it is not the Fed's responsibility to prick the housing bubble, as it has been suggested that Greenspan might be doing.

Hubbard disagreed, arguing that the Fed must concern themselves with inflation, presumably including housing prices.

Adam Smith could have offered what, unfortunately, could be called a "third way," but he has, also unfortunately, been dead for 215 years.

TW HEADLINER: BILL RICHARDSON. The New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson was interviewed by fellow former Clinton Administration member George Stephanopoulos about immigration. Richardson has declared a "state of emergency" in New Mexico over the issue, perhaps to register a complaint about the Bush Administration.

Critics say Richardson trying to have it both ways: screaming about cracking down on illegal immigration while offering illegal immigrants goodies.

Richardson said he granted drivers license so that he could keep track of who and where the "illegal aliens" are. He wants them to "come out of the shadows," pay their fines for being here illegally, and become a part of society.

He's with Senators McCain and Kennedy, he said: make them earn it, pay taxes, background checks, etc. First you get those "waiting at the border legally," then you move to those here illegally. This involves "setting up a screening process."

"It's not partisan," he insisted.

He sees no progress in New Mexico.

Steph talked about Israel and their fence: "Why wouldn't that work in Arizona and New Mexico?"

Richardson said that fences were "easily porous"; we should get unmanned drones and lasers.

He liked Senator Cornyn's bill calling for 10,000 border agents.

He blamed Mexico for "not doing enough."

Steph talked about Iraq, and played a Feingold clip and asked if Richardson agreed.

"No I don't," Richardson said. He went on that we needed either a plan to win or a plan to get out. Those are the Democrat talking points, iterated also by Max Cleland in Saturday's Dem radio address.

GEORGE ALLEN AND CHUCK HAGEL ON TW. Republican Senators Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and George Allen of Virginia had it out on ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos.

Steph repeated Hagel's mantra: "We are losing!" Allen disagreed and said that the constitution would be a motivation around which the Iraq people could rally; the insurgents, he insisted, had nothing like this.

"Stay the course is not a policy," Hagel intoned. We have nothing by which to measure success. We have lost a lot of money and lives for nothing. "We're not winning." He would consider securing the road from the Baghdad Airport to downtown Baghdad would be a measure of success, using a Biden line.

Hagel said we needed more troops, citing General Shinseki. He said that we don't need more troops now, because we're involved in another Vietnam. The next 6 months, he said, will be critical. "The Iraqi people have to step up."

Allen said the measure would be the political side and the physical aspect. Progress on the physical side is training…

Steph interrupted that the Washington Post reports that the local police are loyal to their parties, not the national government. Allen countered that this was how it began here in the United States, with people at first primarily loyal to their States and localities.

A difference with Vietnam, Allen argued, is the constitution. The enemy in Vietnam had a structure, whereas the Iraqi insurgents have none of that.

Steph interrupted again to say that General Shoemaker is planning, worst case, for 100,000 troops for four more years and we could do it. Hagel called this "complete folly," he doesn't know where he's going to get these troops. And he complained about the conflicting signals on troop numbers.

Allen calmed: "This was a worst case scenario." He admitted that the Guard and Reserve were strained, but it could be done if we had to. But it was, he repeated, a worst case scenario.

Steph interrupted to talk about Cindy Sheehan. Both senators, he said, thought the Prez should have met with her, and Allen is not sure if it has hurt the President that he hasn't. Since he made his initial statement that he should meet with her, it has become a different situation, Allen updated. Cindy is making outrageous statements and surrounding herself with outrageous people.

Hagel said that the "dam has broke on this policy." Steph insisted that Hagel wants an exit strategy, and Hagel qualified: "Not a Feingold exit strategy." Hagel said we cannot leave a vacuum that will destabilize the middle east, which he insisted that we're doing the longer we say.

Allen strongly disagreed. It is the central front in the war on terror, and we have to win.

On immigration, Hagel said that Richardson is good on the basics. He then took credit for the McCain-Kennedy bill, saying that it was his bill.

Allen called for more detention centers, no rewards for "illegal behavior," and a better guest worker program. He said that the Cornyn-Kyl bill has such an approach.

Steph tried to shut it down, and he did, but you could hear Hagel in the background: "He doesn't understand the Cornyn-Kyl bill."

Both of these men are prepared for the 2008 debates. That is what this resembled, and Allen won on points but Hagel won on Bidenspeak.

LAITH KUBBA ON LE. Host Wolf Blitzer spoke on CNN's Late Edition with Iraqi government spokesman Laith Kubba on the progress towards an Iraqi constitution.

Will this constitution be up by tomorrow? Kubba thinks it will, but he suggested that they draw the line where they are and work on the rest later. It is also within the drafting committee's power to extend the deadline, but "there's no need to hold the process for the sake of one [unresolved] article."

The role of Islam? Kubba thinks this problem "has been a little exaggerated." Islam is to be the religion of the state, a source of Iegislation, and no legislation which contradicts Islam will be accepted. He suggested that constitution of Afghanistan as a model.

He said that, for women, the constitution would protect their freedoms and liberties, and it will be optional what decisions they make for families. No religious law will be forced on anyone.

He doesn't see Iraq becoming a religious state; if it is fragmented, he argued, it could be in spots, but he remains certain that Iraq's diversity will be preserved.

He said that there will be decentralization of power to certain regions, federalization, and that some people are uncomfortable with doing this on religious and ethnic lines. He said that the regions with the resources should get more out of it, but that the control should be up to the state (the federal government.)

Blitzer asked him if the U.S. ambassador approved of the role of Islam as Kubba outlined it, and Kubba explained that this was an "Iraq-driven process," and that Ambassador Khalilzad had experience with Afghanistan and knew the culture. He was a great help.

Kubba suggested that "we" feel sympathy and connections with Jordan, but "we" are aware that there are terrorists and members of Saddam's regime base in Jordan, "influencing events in Iraq." He said that "we" would like to have closer agreements with Jordan on terrorism, comparable to the links the United States has with other foreign countries.

"We," as Kubba used the pronoun, refers to the government of sovereign Iraq. I didn't get a "help! we're being held captive by the occupying army!" vibe.

LEVIN AND HUNTER ON LE. Blitzer next spoke with Senator Carl Levin (D-Michigan) and House Armed Services Committee Chairman Duncan Hunter (R-California).

Blitzer asked Hunter if we went to war "only to see a form of Islamic state emerge there." Hunter said no, the process is moving apace. He applauded the Iraqis' enthusiasm for solving the issues "with ballots, not bullets." The best course for the United States, he said: "Stay steady." There were a lot of issues to be resolved. "I think we're going to make it; we've got to say steady."

Levin said that there were too many questions left unanswered. We have to tell the Iraqis that they have to take care of it themselves, he said, and if they don't, we're going to leave on a date certain.

Hunter said that the prognosticators have been wrong about Iraq and the Iraqi people in the past. It would be a mistake, he said, to base our troop rotation on political standards. The standard should be the word of the battlefield commanders.

Blitzer accused the Bush Administration of bowing to political considerations, seeking an early withdrawal of troops in time to influence the 2006 elections. Hunter disagreed. "This President is tough. He's a guy who can take some political hits, and he wants to do it right." Don't listen to "Senator Feinstein or Feingold or whatever," listen to the commanders on the ground.

Levin said, yeah, listen to the commanders who are saying that we should withdraw our troops. He wants us to let the Iraqis know that they have to fix it themselves, or else we're going to leave. Hunter argued that they are doing what they're doing, coming together. Levin argued again that the Administration should say that we're going to leave if they don't, dammitall.

Hunter said that we have to let the process work, and to take the advice of "Senator Feingold of Minnesota" would be counterproductive. (I'm not mocking Chairman Hunter; rather, I'm indicating that the statement of Senator Feingold of Wisconsin is not as significant and resounding as the folks at Meet the Press seemed to indicate by featuring the Senator as the first guest on their show.)

Wolf confronted Hunter with the fact that "good Republicans" like Chuck Hagel think Iraq is another Vietnam. (He played the Hagel clip from TW to that effect.) Hunter explained that this is nothing we should wake up cheerful about, but the process is continuing apace. "This thing is moving forward." He called moves like Feingold and others, "predictable" as the poll numbers for the war go down.

Levin disagreed that many Iraqi soldiers are ready to take over their security. Saying "to stay steady or stay the course is not a strategy." Rumsfeld and Rice, he said, were "out of touch with the reality" in Iraq. Hunter disagreed. There is a growing nucleus of Iraqis, he said citing General BarryMcCaffrey, ready to take charge. Levin said nope, none of them. Hunter explained that the Iraqis whom Levin had just called incompetent had just participated in successful operations. Levin continued his negative argument, basing it on some line in a report.

Blitzer quoted Hagel declaring that the President should have invited Cindy Sheehan immediately into the ranch. Hunter said that Cindy is a member of the military family, and he made it clear that any member of the military family who wants to meet with him can. But he criticized the "aging hippies" who were attaching themselves to Cindy and the families: "They reminded me of some of the people I saw coming home from Vietnam."

Levin said that the President was wrong to stay away from Cindy's "honest, genuine grieving."

~~~~~

On that note from Levin, I've scratched holes in my head.

Have at it!

« Question and answer time: the Wes Clark thing.Comments (50) | The Sunday Morning Talk Shows - LineupComments (10) »
The Sunday Morning Talk Shows - Review 27 Comments (0 topical, 27 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Buckle Up by BigRedMachine

It's obvious those Iraqis can't govern themselves.  I mean, they have been beaten down for so long by Saddam that it is no wonder that they don't have the courage or ability to step forward.

We should just get used to the fact that we will be there for many years to come.  Let's make the commitment to make this thing work.  Someone has to show them the road and it can't be taught overnight.

We should not be voting in an Iraqi constitution based off of Islamic law.  That would be the worst thing possible!  

Screw the time table.  Let's get this right, no matter how long it takes.

Say it ain't so... by Addison

"It's obvious those Iraqis can't govern themselves.  I mean, they have been beaten down for so long by Saddam that it is no wonder that they don't have the courage or ability to step forward." -BigRedMachine

Blame Iraqis first? After all the talk we've heard about their nobility in the face of death. About how they're so appreciative of the freedom we've brought them? After they braved bullets and bombs to vote? Snark aside if Republicans start talking in any large numbers about Iraqis lacking "courage or ability to step forward" it will not go over well with the American people. Speaking purely politically I'd stay well away from that and instead put mild blame for the delays and setbacks on Bush, moderate blame of Rumsfeld, and most of the blame on hordes of terrorist insurgents. NOT the Iraqis.

Graham Hearings by generalgrant

I support the idea of Congressional hearings on how a market economy works and specifically how it affects oil prices. If any group of people needs to learn about these things, it is Congress, although, something tells me that these hearings will turn into circuses in which the phrase du jour will be "price gouging"

Sometimes we are our own worse enemy.

Trent Lott (MTP) narrowly escaped helping David Gregory lynch the President.

Steph repeated Hagel's mantra: "We are losing!"

"Stay the course is not a policy," Hagel intoned.

Wolf confronted Hunter with the fact that "good Republicans" like Chuck Hagel think Iraq is another Vietnam.

Allen stepped back only slightly from the edge of the cliff and his original stance that the President should meet Cindy Sheehan.

Since he made his initial statement that he should meet with her, it has become a different situation, Allen updated.

Herding cats is not easy and Bill Frist is doing a terrible job. What good is winning elections if we can't stand firm behind our own agenda?

I love the part about Sen. Graham indicating that Congress should hold hearings on the price of gas.  Maybe someone will subpoena an economics professor to teach them about the law of supply and demand. Then again, these idiots think they can regulate the number of hours of sunlight in a day.  If it weren't for the war and a few other issues of actual importance, I'd say that we should keep them distracted with matters they can't actually do anything about ("Look Senator, shiny metal objects!"), but this nonsense has to stop somewhere.

Hagel by jsteele

It's long past time when the President invited Hagel et al down to Crawford for a "meeting" out behind the barn.

I understand Democrats and their Vietnam analogy, the anti-war protests of the 1970s were the high point of their lives. But why is it that people like Hagel can't seem to grasp that these kind of statements impact troop moral and worse they embolden the enemy. I guess it's because they don't really see the Jihadis as "an enemy".

sound like any kind of policy at all.

About the only idea involving any type of control of immigration was the "give illegal immigrants licenses and we will know they are here" huh?  That is an immigration policy?

Sounds more like "hey let's see how much more we can increase illegal immigration" policy.

I like Richardson as democrats go, but both parties really need to get together and form a real immigration policy-one that is formulated in a way that doesn't encourage or even worse turn a blind eye to the issue of illegal immigration.

Is this poll driven? by EagleWatcher

I seem to remember a recent poll the showed Hispanic-Americans favored tighter control of our borders. I believe the figure was around 53%. Whenever you see a Democrat make a sudden, uncharacteristic move there's usually a poll somewhere motivating it.

comes down to control of the borders.

I know the governor of Arizona (can't remember her name) has started to pay more attention to illegal immigration as well, something she has sort of avoided for a while.

So it is likely that polls are involved.

Illegal immigration isn't good for the country, and we need a sane immigration policy and we needed it years ago.

David Gregory was a suprisingly weak host.  And all I could think of when I saw Feingold bloviating is that this is the fellow who helped give us CFR.  McCain had his number, but I wonder who winds him up from the democratic side.

heh by sunshine

"Herding cats is not easy and Bill Frist is doing a terrible job. What good is winning elections if we can't stand firm behind our own agenda?"

now you realize why, even with a huge majority in both houses of Congress, Bill Clinton couldn't even pass one of his signature initiatives (national health care) when he was in his first term, hardly a lame duck.  

serious governing is hard work.

Governor of Arizona is... by Mark Kilmer

Janet Napolitano, a Democrat whom Richardson mentioned several times in passing, once indicating that she had "done a good job" with something or other.

"By a freakish coincidence, Chuck and his kid brother, Tom, ended up in the same unit and the same armored personnel carrier, fighting in the 9th Infantry Division south of Saigon in 1968, the bloody year of the Tet Offensive. The two of them nearly died together -- twice.

The first time, their unit was on patrol and the man who was walking point, in the lead position, triggered a Vietcong booby trap, blowing himself to smithereens and leaving Chuck with a gaping wound in his chest that spewed blood until Tom could stanch the bleeding with bandages. Only then did Tom find shrapnel in his own left arm. The company captain had rotated the Hagel boys off the point only minutes before the booby trap exploded.

On another occasion, a Vietcong mine blew up under their APC, setting Chuck on fire. His burned face looked as if it was covered in bubbles, and both his eardrums were ruptured. Tom was knocked out cold. Chuck managed to drag his brother out of the APC, where they both came under machine gun fire. Alert comrades ahead of them heard the blast, and returned to save them. Tom was 19 at the time; Chuck, 21. "

The Hagelian dialectic by EagleWatcher

This could turn into a long thread but...

In Vietnam we weren't fighting people who had terror cells in the US and had flown planes into buildings on our soil.  

On the other hand...

We didn't lose the Vietnam war in the jungles of Southeast Asia. We lost the Vietnam war in the halls of Congress. Something we could be in danger of doing thanks to guys like Chuck "very war is Vietnam" Hagle.

Hagel certainly seems to have experienced war first hand. However, that does not make him particularly lucid about either the Vietnam or the Iraq situation. See John Kerry. If combat experience was a prerequsite for setting policy, we should turn the government over to the military.  BTW, how come he had to stay there after his first serious injury when Kerry got to come home after a couple of scratches?

Richardson by CallMeJoe

always wants it both ways. Isn't he the governor who bought a fancy new plane on his state's dime?

I don't know any Democrats in New Mexico who can take him. Yet he faces no serious competition in 2006. Why?

Ha! by von

I love the part about Sen. Graham indicating that Congress should hold hearings on the price of gas.  Maybe someone will subpoena an economics professor to teach them about the law of supply and demand.

Amen, amen, amen.

Why is there so little about the Iraqi Constitution negotiations on RedState? I would really like a little red state analysis of what is going on with this very important issue.

With all the great legal minds here I expected, and would really appreciate a little analysis.

Supply and Demand by redstatesoccermom

OK play economics professor for me.  

Gas prices are up something like 45% over the last few months and have doubled or so in the last year.

Demand certainly hasn't increased by those kind of percentages in the same time period.

What exactly is the mathematical relationship between supply and demand for  oil?

Here is a Washington Post article on the subject.  Should get you going:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/22/AR200508220
0101_pf.html

Basically, it looks like an Islamic Theocracy and lack of equal rights for women.

Stanford

Demand by Adam C2

FWIW, Demand is a large part of it.

But supply is low as well.  Iraq, Venezuela, and Russia (all for different reasons) have seen output disrupted.  Thus, both supply and demand have made prices higher.

Also, as we run out of "cheap" oil that is cheap to extract, we will have to spend more to extract the "expensive" oil.  Thus the rising prices will help counter the low supply problem in the medium run.  But that doesn't drive down price at all.

In the end, people would be well advised to adjust to higher prices as best as possible and not to expect prices to come down.  If that means getting a hybrid for most of your travel or taking the bus, now may be the time to look into it.

See here for the basics of supply and demand:

http://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics3.asp

and

http://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics4.asp

Supply and demand is not a frictionless system.  

When there is demand for 1 barrel of oil, the industry is not capable of providing just one barrel of oil in an efficient manner.  So a system of production, development, refineries, distribution, and exploration for future growth is established.  So the supply is always imperfect.  Oil is difficult to pump out of the ground, machines break down, workers take sick days, insurgents attack supply lines, tankers break down or hit reefs, refineries have fires, environmental reviews prevent more refineries from being built, etc. and etc.

Demand is also, inherently, unstable.  Oil is used for transportation, plastics (cue theme music for 'The Graduate'), pharmaceuticals, etc. and etc.  People drive more or less, people heat their homes more or less, countries increase or decrease their demand (China and India are exploding in their demand for oil).

The price of a barrel of oil depends on all of these factors, plus the psychology of the market.  if the market thinks that oil will flow easily, price goes down (and thus gas prices go down).  if the market thinks that oil is not flowing easily, the price goes up (and thus gas prices go up).

It's not hard to see why the price of a barrel of oil has goen up so much in the past year: Iraq insurgency, death of Saudi king, Iran's nuke program, demand in China and India, and demand in the U.S. is at least steady if not growing.

The free market system is not ever going to be 'fair' but it is inherently 'rational.'

Reuters has it different by HaroldHutchison



http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID
=2005-08-22T143005Z_01_EIC252108_RTRUKOC_0_UK-IRAQ-CONSTITUTION-FEDERAL.xml

A "republican, parliamentary, democratic and federal" state.  Looks like the Washington Post is BSing.

Flush it out by Stanford

She should read yours first.  The Washington Post article is not contradictory as such but just flushes it out.

The key question is if there are enough votes by region to approve.

Stanford

Supply & Demand by Vladimir

For the demand side, try here. And here. For the supply side, try here.

The short answer is, the two aren't proportional in any way. Higher prices don't drop demand much. Conversely, the impact of demand on supply depends on how readily new supplies can be brought to market. If storage tanks are bursting and OPEC has plenty of excess deliverability they can bring on by opening a valve, higher demand has minimal impact on price. Nowadays, however, producers are having problems increasing worldwide production much over 82 million barrels per day, so there is a lot of competition for each additional barrel brought to market. The demand curve resembles a hockey stick, and we seem to be riding the steeply-sloping part where small increases in demand (or uncertainty about future supplies) can drive the price sky-high.

Most useful answer by redstatesoccermom

The hockey stick analogy.  Thanks.  Most folks grasp the basics of supply and demand but I think we think of the relationship as being proportional - a 45 degree line.

That is why the idea that a fairly small increase in demand can yield a fairly steep increase in price is needed to make sense out of the current picture.

Since it seems extraordinarily unlikely that demand will do anything other than contine to increase, and probably significantly, I think we are in a world of trouble, especially if oil is only going to get more scarce and harder to extract from here out.

 
Redstate Network Login:
(lost password?)


©2008 Eagle Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Legal, Copyright, and Terms of Service