Haley Barbour's Star on the Rise
By Leon H Wolf Posted in Republicans — Comments (28) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Despite being somewhat overshadowed by SCOTUS confirmation scuffles and post-hurricane finger-pointing, a very smart political operative has quietly been proving himself effective at the business of running a government, and establishing himself as the most credible candidate for 2008 that I've seen so far.
I'm talking, of course, about Mississippi governor Haley Barbour. More below the fold:
A number of factors are going to come into play for the 2008 election, if the current political climate holds. First, there is quite a lot of Washington fatigue in the country right now. Across the board, approval ratings for the President and CongressCritters on both sides of the aisle are down. Every once in a while, on a cyclical basis, we generally get fed up with the bums we have in office and begin a re-arranging process. In the ordinary course of events, its probable that this Washington fatigue would play itself out well before 2008, but with the deepening of The Big Ditch™ (due, in part, to the rise of the blogosphere and 24-hour cable news), I have the feeling that this is going to be artificially prolonged at least until the next Presidential election. Therefore, I'm more or less willing to dismiss serious consideration of anyone connected with Washington at this moment.
This is apart from the rather more common fact that Governors make better candidates. In the first place, the public generally perceives them as being more well-prepared for the task at hand based on prior executive experience, as opposed to legislative experience. In the second place, Governors are more accepting of the idea that they can't do everything themselves. They've been sitting astride huge organizations for years, and they know that it's just not possible for one person to be involved in every decision (as opposed to Senators, who are generally surrounded by a few staffers). And so, consequently, they are skilled at finding competent people and delegating responsibility to them. In addition to making better administrators out of the candidates, it also makes for smoother campaigns. But all of this you already knew.
What Barbour has going for him is that he is one of the few Governors who is also well connected with the national party apparatus (obviously sharing that trait with PA Governor Ed Rendell). Barbour's rubbed shoulders with all the right people, has a built-in fundraising machine, and on top of all that, is establishing his creds as a man who is efficient at "doing government." In the wake of Katrina, in juxtaposition to neighboring governor Kathleen Blanco, Barbour's poll numbers within Mississippi have showed about a 26 point swing in approval/disapproval. These are post-9/11 Rudy Giuliani-type swings for Barbour here, and if he can maintain at anything close to this level, he will be the most potentially dangerous political hybrid of this generation.
As a politician, Barbour is the antithesis of all that is George Bush. As it's been noted before, it often seems that the only political note in Bush's playbook is rope-a-dope. Team Bush generally will allow their opponents to agitate, and say nothing in response. Sensing weakness, the opponent in question will then overstep the bounds of propriety, at which point the knockout blow will be delivered. While it's been marginally effective thus far, it's a strategy that is also tiresome to the base, as they often feel that they are being called to carry water that the President should be carrying for them.
Barbour, on the other hand, is a politician of purpose and vision. As one of the principal architects of the Republican revolution of 1994, Barbour understands the importance of simple and popular messages, of staying out front while you've got momentum, and he also is a master of knowing exactly how to satiate public discontent. Where Bush is a teambuilder and a loyalist, who places great emphasis upon "trusting him as a person," Barbour is a master of crafting, selling and sticking with the message. After eight years of rope-a-dope, I think folks on both sides of the aisle are going to be thirsting for a Barbour-style politician.
But I've often said that Presidential elections are won on the "BBQ Factor," and I still believe that to be the case. And in this respect, despite Barbour's eminent political connections, and the fact that he is, to a large degree, a political insider of the first order, he has an uncanny ability to make you forget all of that about him. If you have one extra steak for the game on Saturday, you're gonna call Haley Barbour over Joe Biden every time. Unless you're Joe Biden's mother.
Barbour is not without his negatives. He is, despite his Washington connections, an extremely Southern personage. His accent is neither the pasted on drawl of John Edwards nor the humorous twang of George W. Bush - it is the legitimate ponderous thickening of tongue that only comes from an upbringing in the very deep South. While that ought not to matter, it would be foolish to pretend that perceptions don't have a real impact on some folks who regrettably get votes just like you and I. If this was a hurdle for Bill Clinton to overcome, Barbour will have to jump twice as high.
If we want to quit dancing around the issue, if you're white and from the deep south, a lot of folks are automatically going to assume that you're a racist, unless you prove to them otherwise. This kind of regional snobbery is less important in areas like New England, which are not realistically up for grabs anyway, but still exists in battleground areas like the upper midwest and southwest. Being a relatively deep southerner myself, I understand that this regional prejudice is just as nonsensical as the racial kind, and nevertheless just as real. This may, however, present a more serious problem for Barbour because of a minor indiscretion on the gubernatorial campaign trail. It will be interesting to see how that plays out in a national election.
Secondly, Barbour spent a fairly significant portion of time as a lobbyist in Washington. Generally lobbyists are held in rather low regard because they are called upon to represent some unpopular causes. Presumably, if the causes were popular, they wouldn't need lobbyists, after all, and certainly not lobbyists of the caliber and price range of Haley Barbour. I don't know the extent to which Barbour's client list is potentially troublesome, but I do know that Ronnie Musgrove tried this approach for all it was worth in the Mississippi Gubernatorial campaign, and was unseated as an incumbent for his troubles.
All things considered, from what I have seen of Barbour, his political skills, combined with his connections, make him the most formidable Presidential candidate to make headway on either side of the aisle thus far.
« Burn the Witch — Comments (18) | September Straw Poll Time — Comments (52) »
Haley Barbour's Star on the Rise 28 Comments (0 topical, 28 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Sorry, I don't think he can win a general election. He's a good Governor, a good politician, probably a good guy though I don't know him. The fact he's from the South is a total non-issue... especially with regard to race. Anyone that won't vote for a Southerner because they might be "racist" is a Democrat or doesn't vote.
That he's... not very telegenic is rather problematic, even though most of us would agree it should not be. But ultimately the problem for Barbour is that he's a Governor without the benefits of being a Governor. His Washington experience and connections come with a price... it all but eliminates the "outsider" persona so valuable for non-incumbents.
So far as Governors, the GOP has better options. I like Barbour but we have to pick a strong general election candidate.
Barbour had a net negative approval rating. Approval tracked here. As time goes I would naively expect his approval rating to float back to pre-Katrina levels.
Based solely on a approval ratings, here are all the Republican Governors with higher net approval than Barbour.
State, Governor, Net Approval
South Dakota, Rounds, Mike, 56%
Connecticut Rell, Jodi 54%
North Dakota Hoeven, John 54%
Utah Huntsman, Jon 49%
Nebraska Heineman, Dave 37%
Vermont Douglas, Jim 35%
Hawaii Lingle, Linda 29%
Georgia Perdue, Sonny 27%
Nevada Guinn, Kenny 26%
I'm not saying any of these guys would make better candidates than Barbour, but the approval rating doesn't make him all that special.
Also, candidates with a Southern accent haven't exactly had a bad track record over the last 40 years or so.
Unquestionably, Katrina made Barbour a viable primary election candidate, and I posted favorably in early September. Since then, I've heard scuttlebutt similar to what BillCosby posts above. Still, don't forget the tremendous job Barbour did heading the RNC through the nadir of the Clinton Administration.
It is not only democrats. Being a southerner who has travelled the country, I can tell you right now, the particular type of southern accent that Haley Barbour has will preclude a very large swath of Americans from taking him seriously. It is an unfortunant prejudice, but it is real.
Gore.
Or is it only the GOP variety of Southernor they won't vote for?
The other thing about favorability is that even if it does go down post-Katrina, Barbour is unlikely to lose Mississippi, or any other southern state for that matter, unlike Al Gore.
I think he's one to watch, but still believe the main Republican contenders will keep their powder dry until after '06.
Barbour at the front of the ticket would be a pretty significant hindrance. His career as RNC chair and as a lobbyist are not without their controversies and the deep South thing is certainly something of a bias that would hurt in the competitive midwest (Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota).
I think Barbour would make a good VP candidate for someone like Rice or even McCain, folks who need a governor to help get themselves elected.
is because he is one of the very, very few Republicans who talks back to and takes no guff from the ,at best, semi-literate media. Which is just another reason why they hate him,he doesn't know he's supposed to sit there and take it. Barbour for VP ? But then you'll have to hear the "a heartbeat away" stuff. As implied or said by other posters his past will be treated as something like a Heinrich Himmler/Jack the Ripper/Jesse James composite as the Dems and their bodyguards the media remind themselves,however briefly, of the need for ethics. I like him but it would be tough.
I still stay George Allen has to be the favorite. If he takes Condi Rice as running mate, we could see a landslide. Allen has strong conservative credentials, is good in front of the cameras, is a southern governor bordering on blue states. Condi brings some percentage of black votes into the party and doesn't hurt with women. She also puts the dem candidate on the defensive in California (we don't need to win there, just make the dems spend time and money there). That ticket would win every Bush state plus likely NH, MN, and WI. We could also start to make significant inroads into PA and MI.
George Allen is a Senator (not a Governor) from a State which borders on precisely one Blue State - Maryland. What, do you seriously think Maryland would vote for a Allen-Whoever ticket? Otherwise ... what does it matter that Virginia borders a Blue State? So does North Dakota ... so?
I've been saying the same thing since before the 2004 election; an Allen-Rice ticket is most likely (and most favored, IMHO).
I do love Haley Barbour, but I just don't see him going anywhere in the primaries--not a chance. It's also true, unfortunately, that there are a lot of ignorant morons who have never left their own hometowns/states who think (we) Southerners are congenitally racist AND barely have an 8th grade education. I heard it all the time as I moved around the country--people would say, "YOU are from Alabama? You don't sound/talk/act like it!" I can only imagine what these idiots would think about Haley Barbour (whose accent is like music to my ears)! :-D
Yeah. But being a Senator after being a Governor is hardly burnishing the credentials, I think, if one wants to then move on the be President. In fact, it largely negates the positive attributes a potential candidate accrued in the executive mansion. The 'outsider' status, which carries a lot of weight lately (the last three decades or so) in selecting Presidents is lost, and the candidate begins a career in the Senatorial land of compromise, casting all sorts of votes upon which the opponents simply feast.
Now, being a Senator then being a Governor wouldn't be good, either - but it would be better than the Governor-then-Senator trail to running for President.
Look at Warner, for example. Does anyone think being a Senator would enhance his prospects for the White House?
I don't think so ...
Anyway, I think his once having been a Governor is now eclipsed (and damaged) by his Senate tenure.
W's Texas twang doesn't exactly come across as a learned accent, and he got 44% in Connecticut, 46% in New Jersey, 49% in Wisconsin... did he lose those places because of his accent, or because of his politics? History indicates it was the politics.
Clinton didn't have much of one but Carter did... he won NY and MA.
I agree that Barbour's accent is not helpful, but neither is a thick New York accent or Boston accent or Wisconsin accent or whatever.
this would be fine with me. He's completely stymies the GOP "foreign political contribution" rant, because he's done that himself; he's from a state that is going to go Republican anyway; and then there's his accent:
His accent:Typical Southern Accent =
Cockney: Typical British Accent
is his call for land-based casinos. One of the large Baptist groups has alerady come out swinging against it. I don't know the implications for his long-term national aspirations but if the fight is anything like the original casino fights of the 90's it will be ugly. I was in New Orleans already but Gulfport is my hometown so I've always followed the casino issue closely.
Although I'm not a huge fan of casinos, the Mississippi Gulf Coast has done a good job with them. THere are improvements that you can actually see that are directly attributable to the money generated from gaming.
As far as his accent goes, it's not so much Southern as it is country.
I am beginning to think that we should go with a "Katrina" ticket in 08. I think that a Barbour/Vitter team would be almost unstoppable - both have been outstanding and have inspired the country. I think that Haley Barbour is truely a hero and is our Rudy Gulianni.
I will be totally on board with Barbour if he opposes the rebuilding of the Casino industry in Mississippi and outlaws gambling there.
If he did that he would rocket to the top of my list for 2008.
1500 feet to be exact, IIRC.
Mike Huckabee, governor of Arkansas. The man is brilliant. He just needs to get his name recognition up.
There is a practical matter to consider: Barbour would need to decide whether to run for re-election in Nov. 2007 or pursue a Presidential bid in the 2008 primaries.
by my comment, Yes Haley's particular type of southern accent is very bad. I mean its not bad that he has an accent, its bad that people will think of him as a televangelist or small town used car salesman.
for evidence of the animus of a significant portion of the populations of Midwestern US states towards barbour's particular accent.
This surprises me greatly, if true, given my own travels (though admittedly not extensive) as well as the success of LBJ, Carter, Clinton and Dubya.
JFK carried many southern states. I favor Romney now over all others.
It really hurts to think that what you say may be true, but I wonder, and I know you said you area southererner, if you could either be projecting or making a too broad generalization based on anecdotal peronal insults.
I mean, there are some accents, even southern ones, that hurt my ear. Barbour's does not qualify. But I can't imagive not voting for someone on that grounds.
Are so many Midwesterers that bigoted and trifflingly obtuse?
I tried a case before a jury in Minneapolis years ago and was somewhat of a novelty in bars when I went up before trial. But I won them over. And won the jury trial.
It just hurts to think so many though I was dumb!
I'll tell you what though, I have often said that southerners were second, even if a far second to blacks on being prejudiced against.
Barbour is an interesting idea. He becomes more interesting when one looks at tickets:
Barbour / Rice
Rice / Barbour
Giuliani / Barber
Barber / Dole
Barber / Watts (my personal favorite)
Barber is southern, socially conservative, fire breathing, red meet speech giving, good old boy. He `fits' with any ticket combo that we might want to put together...and you know that we (the GOP) will HAVE TO have a woman and/or a person of color on the ticket.
I think for any GOP ticket planning for '08 we must assume a Democratic ticket of Hillary and Obama
It's not a BBQ-factor...its a Barbour-Q-Factor! Ok that was rather sardonic if I do say so my self. My appologies.