PA gubernatorial: Swann leads Rendell
By Mark Kilmer Posted in 2006 — Comments (16) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Just announced: the latest Ramussen has Republican Lynn Swann leading Pennsylvania Democrat Governor Ed Rendell by a margin of 45-percent to 43-percent, (The same survey shows Rendell trouncing Bill Scranton by 10 points, 46-percent to 36-percent.)
But, Rasmussen points out, the Swann-Rendell race in PA is far from over despite Swann's huge comeback since being flattened by the Rendell machine in surveys conducted by Rasmussen last year (6 points in July, 14 in November):
Despite the yardage Swann has gained, the game with Rendell is still very much in play. Both men currently win about two thirds of the members of their respective parties. Each also wins about two thirds of self-identified liberals (Rendell) or conservatives (Swann).
Starting today, the world chases Swanny.
(Cross-posted at Swannblog. )
(Zogby poll below the fold.)
Announced earlier today by the Wall Street Journal, the latest Zogby Interactive Battleground Poll puts Republican Swann in a virtual tie with incumbent Democrat Governor Ed Rendell.
PoliticsPA gives the numbers: with a 2.7% margin of error, the poll shows Uncle Ed leading Swann, 43.9% to 43.6%. (Parenthetically, the same poll shows Rendell crushing Bill Scranton, 45.7% to 37.9%.)
It can be argued that much will change with the campaigns between now and Election Day, and that is true. This is also why a January debate, as pushed by Scranton for political reasons, would be foolish and insane if the party's goal is the same as Swann's: the defeat of Ed Rendell.
(Below the fold, cross-posted at Swannblog.)
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PA gubernatorial: Swann leads Rendell 16 Comments (0 topical, 16 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
He now needs to quickly articulate two to three key points in his administration and make sure that they are not too technical, but are more of the common sense types of things that appeal to a lot of swing voters.
Swann was a great receiver. I hope he is prepared to receive what the Democrats will throw at him. By November he should be qualified to compete in the Black and Blue Division.
Can anybody tell me Swann's platform, and how that platform differs from Scranton? Please don't take this as a troll, I'm genuinely curious as to the differences and the extent of Swann's platform.
I think he has a great personality and attitude. Would be a nice change from the dud that Rendell is.
On another topic, any other websites out there that posters find good/interesting?
Some of mine are:
www.realclearpolitics.com
www.reason.com
www.americanthinker.com
www.politicsnationwide.com
Both Swann and Scranton match up almost exactly except for one major issue, and I'm not counting that Scranton wants to raise the consumption tax to ease the property tax, as I don't know that Swann wouldn't have to do the same thing.
The issue on which the two differ is abortion, with Swann being solidly pro-life and Scranton siding with the pro-aborts in saying that it should be the "individual's choice." (By that, I assume he means the individual without the umbilical cord.)
I don't know much about PA politics-other than they gave us Specter, and that Casey is likely to beat Santorum.
It would be nice to see a GOP governor take the helm in PA, especially a pro life one.
Well, in the two cities, pro-abort often helps, in the middle, it often hurts. I'm unsure about the primaries, as Scranton has somehow convinced people, without saying it, that he can be persuaded to be pro-life with the right advisors.
If you're curious about learning more on this race and watching it develop, please visit Swannblog.com. It's a RedState project.
Casey is pro-life as well. As was the popular ex-GOV Casey. Specter is the main pro-abortion politician in the state, and he's from the Philly area.
honestly-if the pro life position is important-do you vote for the guy "who can be persuaded" or the guy that actually says he is it?
Also, with the primary-part of the question is also just how pro life/pro choice the GOP base is in those cities.
Is PA an open primary state where anyone can vote in either primary? Of is it closed only to GOP members?
Swann is in for a tough time in PA. He is running as an outsider, which is normally a good thing, but he has been endorsed and is taking marck=hung orders from the President Pro Tem of the Senate (Robert Jubilier) and one of his henchman. Should this matter become very public and a matter of debate, Swann will lose serious ground.
Currently PA is in the throughs of a political uprising (both parties included, but more outrage from the R's). The current matter relates to a 2:00am pay raise vote by the legislature (one of the principle architects was Jubilier). Anyway, the pay raise happened without public debate or hearing. However, the State Supreme Court is in bed with the legislature and has turned a blind eye to blatant violations of the PA Constitution on a regualr basis. It gets rather involved, suffice it to say that if you were running for Gov. in PA as an outsider you would want 95% of the current pol's to stay away from you. If your interested you can glean more information from www.pacleansweep.com
But, is the legislature split, all R or all D? Also, is it still accurate to describe the state's political attitude as Philadelphia and Pittsburg, with Alabama in between them?
The Legislature is a majority R (although one would be hardpressed to find evidence of it). I wouldn't go so far as to say Alabama in between. However, the central and northern tier of the state are heavily R. There has been some D migration out of the usual strongholds, but nothing significant.
The other problem is the infighting that has taken place within usually strong Republican areas. There are several powerbrokers fighting it out and this has lead to some serious rifts within the party in those areas. An example is Montgomery County (see http://harrisburgbuzz.blogspot.com/2005/12/montco-gop-in-shambles-santorum-
angry.html for details probably a little over the top but it gives you some facts).
I went to college in Philly years ago (Mayor Rizzo), and found the local politics, um, entertaining. Sounds like it still is.
I would be rooting for a Pittsburgh Steeler to win anything.
Go Swann!