Redstate

If I had to second guess it, I would swap Menendez and Landrieu....but it gives the same number...so I called it here.....61-39

Bayh votes no (he vote not on Roberts!)

Cantwell votes yes (needs moderates to win)

Chafee votes yes (in order to win the primary)

Dorgan votes no (party hack)

Landrieu votes yes (how does she keep winning?)

Lautenberg votes no (old man does whatever he wants, he aint up for reelection)

Menendez votes no (he can run a campaign with a liberal record)

Rockefeller votes no  (no worries there)

Snowe votes yes (she's a favoritie in ME, will be elected without a problem).

Dorgan may vote yes (Conrad pressuring him)

Lautenberg wants to vote yes, but Reid is pressuring him, and Menendez is gonna vote whichever way Lautenberg does.

Chafee and Snowe may actually do us a favor by voting against Alito if the above three (which are really the only ones I think possible besides the two Rs) do not, and keeping the total under 60 so that the moonbats go crazy that there wasn't a filibuster.

That said, I'd still like to see the total over 60.

We want all 55 Rs to re-affirm that we view nominees through the lens of qualifications, not ideology.  With Chafee and Snowe, we have 55 votes for Roberts and Alito because they were qualified and ethical.

Voting "no" sends a message. Voting against cloture is "pandering". Come to think of it, that sends a message, too.

in their Senate contingent.

Seems to me that Reid has determined that it's better to fight a losing battle (by filibustering) than fight no battle at all.  

Apparently They Who Worship Kos and Atrios want to see a scrap, any scrap, on the Senate floor re Alito. Their bloodlust is up, much like the Zulu warriors who, hearing that the British had been slaughtered already at Ishlandwana, still had to vent on somebody , and thus turned to the then-insignificant British supply depot at Rorke's Drift.

I'll bet that Reid wants to vent some of the base's bloodlust, in hopes that the base won't relieve its pent-up angst by turning on him .  Hence, Reid is willing to let the doomed filibuster go on, at least for a little while.

I doubt that Reid is dumb enough to let an Alito filibuster campaign go so far that the GOP will be forced to nuke the filibuster in toto.  I'd think Reid wants that tool available if/when Stephens or Ginzburg retires. So, I'd expect that Reid will feint with the filibuster, but pull back before he has to decisively commit.  (streiff, that was for you).

<shakes head in disbelief>

would be to delay Alito's nomination vote, somehow, someway, until after the State of the Union.  That way, Those Who Worship Kos and Atrios could draw some satisfaction from having denied Alito a chance to sit in the House chambers and listen to the State of the Union as a SCOTUS Justice.  

(Didn't the Dems stall Alberto Gonzales's AG nomination vote long enough to prevent him from listening to a SOTU as the AG?)

Petty? Yes.  Something to which the Senate Dems wouldn't stoop?  Hardly.

...if they want to delay Alito's confirmation until after the State of the Union.

Alito's going to see 30 or so as a justice.  What's one more?

this situation in the Democratic Party would be called "Red on Red".

All I can say is, don't get in their way.

At least that's what someone on Kos claims. (Yeah yeah I knoew the hazards of believing what I read there.)

All the gang of 7 except Byrd may flip. Fine by me.

After the nuke then someone like Brown or Estrada can be next in line.

let Kerry and his Kossacks get the filibuster rolling.  Reid don't give a rats tail because he knows it aint going over 40.  He can count.  

But wait!!!!!!!!  Enzi votes to keep it going, so does Craig, Stevens, etc and its 41!!!!!!!!!  The filibuster holds!!!!!!!!!

And now its our turn to finish this once and for all.

but if any Republicans vote against cloture simply as a pretext to trigger the constitutional option, the avalanche of (well-deserved) bad press would threaten to turn '06 into a rout of historic proportion.

No Rs have to vote for the filibuster to do this.  The Senate can amend it's rules with a majority vote at any time.  The Constitutional Option doesn't require a filibuster to be happening.

The main thing stopping it is that most people and Senators don't want to get rid of the possibility for a filibuster for an actual case of "extraordinary circumstances."  If it is abused, then grudgingly 50 Senators will get rid of it.

What statement is Senator Feinstein sending by now supporting the filibuster when only a couple of weeks ago she warned against just that?  As she said - "This might be a man I disagree with, but it doesn't mean he shouldn't be on the court..."  These are definitely contrasting statements.  At this point, she should follow her own advice - Judge Alito deserves the respect of an up or down vote.