2008 President - Livingston County (MI) Poll Results
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Cross posted at Republican Michigander
2008 Livingston County Poll Results
The Livingston County Republicans held a 2008 poll for President at our Lincoln Day Dinner. Each attendant at the Lincoln Day Dinner had the option to vote. We had 97 voters, which was approximately half of the attendants. Each person voted once. The results are as follows:
- Governor Mitt Romney - 24.74%
- Senator John McCain - 18.56%
- Senator George Allen - 17.53%
- Congressman Mike Pence - 14.43%
- Former Speaker Newt Gingrich - 11.34%
- Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani - 10.30%
- Congressman Tom Tancredo - 1.03%
Write in:
Secretary Condoleezza Rice - 1.03%
Senator Sam Brownback - 1.03%
I expected Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to win. Romney is a Michigan native who spoke at the Mackinac Leadership Conference and neighboring Oakland County's Lincoln Day dinner. His dad is former Governor George Ryan. He is running as a conservative. Those are all factors in his popularity and high name recognition. He is the frontrunner in Michigan.
Senator John McCain finished better than I expected. I expected him to trade places with Giuliani because of the McCain/Feingold Campaign Finance Law and his Second Amendment stance. His military background was a major factor in his 2nd place showing as Livingston County is a very pro-military county. (This was also one of Bob Dole's best counties - as beat Clinton by 13% despite Ross Perot in a state he won by 13%)
Virginia Senator George Allen I expected to finish in the top three. He recently spoke at a FreedomWorks event in Michigan that drew 150 people. He voted against that infamous "Bridge to Nowhere." He is running as a center-right conservative.
Indiana Congressman Mike Pence was a major surprise. There is a significant Pence 2008 movement, but it is nearly exclusively in the blogging world. The most common question asked about him was "Who's Mike Pence?" However, those that knew him, was liked him. He is the chair of the Republican Study Committee in the house, which is the conservative caucus. The Republican Study Committee last week introduced a balanced budget based on the 1995 Contract With America. If the bloggers are successful in drafting him for president, he could be a strong dark horse candidate with the current overspending in Washington.
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich is going to be a wildcard in 2008. He placed fifth, which is not that surprising considering he is just getting back into the news again after being six years removed from being Speaker of the House. He could be moving up once again as many republicans have moved away from the Contract with America.
Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani I expected to be in McCain's place. "Mayor 9/11" still could be formidable candidate. I expected him to do better since a lot of conservatives I know give him a pass on his social issues and Second Amendment stance due to 9/11. That might not be the case anymore.
Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo only received one vote, which surprised me since he has some support in Michigan. His main issue is illegal immigration. Immigration is not as big of an issue among the dinner attendees as it is elsewhere.
Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson was included, but surprisingly did not receive a vote. There were limited options, and those who stated they were not running in 2008 were excluded from the poll - Condoleezza Rice, Dick Cheney, Jeb Bush, and Mark Sanford (my first choice for president) were not included. Others not included, but may be included in future polls are Sam Brownback, Bill Owens, Fred Thompson, Tim Pawlenty, Bill Frist, and Mike Huckabee. The next poll will probably switch Thompson and Brownback.
Full Disclosure - I voted for Mike Pence.
This was an interesting poll. While it is not scientific, it still gives a general synopsis of the current situation for president in Livingston County. Livingston County is a very key county for Republicans in Michigan primary races, and those who attend a Lincoln Day Dinners are most apt to be primary election voters.
The 2008 race will be followed extensively at the Republican Michigander. We will update you all as more information develops.
While there is suspicion by some among Mormons because of the the Arizona guy, Mormons are generally known for high morals.
I have no idea how it will play.
I think he'd do better if he got out there and started campaigning. I think a lot of people assume he won't run, and Republicans are getting tired of all of our top candidates disappointing us this year (Jeb, Condi, Sanford, etc).
Giuliani has a very natural constituency in the upper midwest, a region filled with ethnic Catholics and working class Rust Belt voters who can relate to a guy like Giuliani better than a guy like Bush and eons better than a girl like Hillary.
but as our parents would always tell us:
Nobody would marry one!
Mike Pence's only weakness in name ID.That is easily correctable.If people know him,people support him.Mike Pence 2008!
Does this mean that a Pence/Allen ticket would move straight to the top of the list?
Governor George Ryan.
Make that George ROMNEY. George Ryan was the crook who destroyed the Illinois GOP.
Romney is the antithesis of the status quo.
He balances budgets.
He has a record of accomplishment inside and outside government.
He is not from the national establishment.
1 - slashing defense spending for 78 months while respnding to terrorist attacks against the US with a few cruise missile, tough talk one day and moral equivalence the next. Oh yeah, the budget was balanced for 18 months.
2-Became one of a small percentage of Americans to fly jet aircraft, refused to travel, to Moscow during the Vietnam War, and completed the sowing of wild oats while out of government.
Required that his state's school teachers meet minimum competence standards and testing students to make sure they are being educated before they move to the next grade level, and, balanced 8 state budgets.
3-Liberated 50+ milion people from tyranny, destroyed the nation-state safe haven of al qaida that had been waging war against the US for 10 years and has prevented any further attacks since 911 outside of the theaters of operation we chose to take the war to the enemy.
Won the Iraq war that began in 1991 but that niether Bush 41 or Clinton was able to win.
Secured tax cuts to prevent a deep recession after the stock bubble burst and 911 and has presided over an economy that has performed better than the averagaes of the past 4 decades years.
Has restored the supreme court to its proper role as an interpreter of laws rather than an oligarchy licensed to destroy judeo-christian vales,
and continues to kill terrorists on a daily basis
all while part of the national establishment,
at least until he goes to bed at 8 pm,
with his wife.
An accurate description of the status quo is...
sorry
I like Romney btw
Don't forget it was Gov. Romney who saved the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City and refused to be payed for all that he did. I haven't heard where he stands on the war on terror and national security.
Right now Mitt has to worry about keeping a Republican in the governors House in Massachusetts, one Red speck in a sea of liberal blue.
It will be intresting too see what his opponents will do to attack Romney.
McCain wants too play President in the worst way, that guy scares me. he will play up his military back ground againest all who stand in his way,BUT, all his other little stunts will hurt him.
McCain/Finegold: stop free speech except for "native Americans" and McCain has recieved the most donations from the Native Americans"..HMmmmm
your meaning comes through loud and clear, and is full of un-common sense!
but only male stop signs! as my posting today proves, I am powerless against the female variety, which causes bad memories.
I dopn't know that acronym. Spell it out like I was a five year old
I think Newt and Pence have the same sort of following, and they split their votes. Look what happens if you put Newt and Pence together for the vote percentage.
I know there are holes in what I'm saying, but I offer it only as opinion.
Newt has Kerry's problem. The college prof talks above the crowd and intellectualizes too much for the man on the street. As a personality, he is 180 degrees from GWB, whose occasional bumbling and mispronounciations became an asset. Count him a long shot.
Sounds about right for the top three.
The first one or two GOP debates, if there are any, will have a strong likelihood of winnowing the field in the mind of the voters.
Then it's on to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan to actually winnow the field.
Do you think that nut out in Arizona (NO I DON'T MEAN McCAIN), the one with all the wives, who CLAIMS to be an off-shoot of the LDS Church..do you think his popping up in the news in any way taints the Romney candidacy?
I understand that there is a huge difference between the LDS and this guy, but will the American public understand?