We Must Continue.

By Moe Lane Posted in Comments (2) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Because the planet isn't waiting on us, and God knows that if we want to see a subject covered properly we have to do it ourselves.

Oh, yes, for the record: I'm unamused by plagiarism - and even more unamused by the increasingly-public face of my former party. Particularly when they go into full Arthur Miller's The Crucible mode - and not as the good guys.

Moving on to real problems, 'President' Lukashenko has decided to shut down some pesky protestors:

MINSK, Belarus - Police stormed the opposition tent camp in the Belarusian capital Minsk early Friday morning, detaining hundreds of demonstrators who had spent a fourth night protesting President Alexander Lukashenko's victory in a disputed election.

Read on.

The arrests came after a half dozen large police trucks and around 100 helmeted riot police with clubs pulled up to Oktyabrskaya Square in central Minsk about 3 a.m.

The police stood around for a few minutes and then barged into the tent camp filled with protesters.

More here, and of course Publius Pundit (H/T) will undoubtedly come up with more links to what happened. (meta-H/T Glenn). Although it's fairly clear what happened. Lukashenko looked over the situation, decided that the rest of the planet was either distracted and/or indifferent not to care about what happens in Belarus, and then sent in the troops.

What makes this distressing, and a little worrisome, is that it was not as ham-fisted as we've come to expect (and, perhaps, rely on) from your standard tin-pot dictator with delusions of grandeur. They went in fast, cordoned off the media, mostly avoided public beatings and sent out a cleanup crew post-haste to remove the physical signs. Somebody sat down and planned this, and it worked, the [expletive noun deleted].

Will he get away with it? Probably. I hate writing that, but I don't see how I can. Those poor people didn't have time to get world opinion on their side, which is turning out to be a critical component to these sorts of revolutions. I suspect that Lukashenko will not give them time in the future - and I also suspect that he's bright enough not have them all shot out of hand.

Which does not mean that Belarus is going to stay stuck in its present mess; it merely means that it's not going to be so easy this time.

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We Must Continue. 2 Comments (0 topical, 2 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Playing the long game by Bookkeeper

The problem is that Lukashenko still has the support of about 50% of the country and the Sovie...er, Russians.  This isn't Ukraine and the western media has yet to recognize this, although I think Condi "I have a PhD in Sovietology" Rice does.  That's why you're not seeing the push from US NGOs like we did in Ukraine.  

In Belarus, we need to play the long game, possibly even waiting out Lukashenko.  He, like so many Soviet-era apparatchiki will probably live the median Soviet lifespan and not be with us much longer (he's 62 this year).  I don't know if he's groomed successors, but I doubt it in light of his own megalomania.

What we absolutely have to avoid is allowing the 50% who back Lukashenko and the 50% who want to ally with the EU and the West to rip the country apart in the meantime.  That's a mess no one wants to open up.

unfortunate by Pete Bogs

that part of the world seems to be rife with dictators... whether it's Lukas, Milosevic, or that guy who boils people alive... it's too bad the former Soviet satellites have not moved away from authoritarian regimes since the fall of the USSR...


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