Redstate

By Mason Conservative Posted in User Blogs — Comments (3) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

James Webb has won the Democratic primary in Virginia with about 53% of the vote, with an overall turnout a little over 3%.  I guess 1.5% of Virginia has spoken.  Anyways, here is my breakdown of James Webb.

Webb comes with a formidable record of service for his country.  Unlike many Senate challengers, he comes with polished foriegn policy credentials, a populist style that has had many uttering the words "Andrew Jackson" about his candidacy.  But he is also a political newcomer, having never run for anything before.  He has been notoriously late to campaign events, and has let his temper get the best of him, telling his opponent Harris Miller to "shut up" during a televised debate.  Webb has also built a cadre of supporters among the Virginia blogosphere, spurred by his voiceforious opposition to the Iraq War from the beginning.  Having deep blogger support comes with pros and cons, ask Howard Dean.

But Webb is no Dean.  Webb is a thoughtful, brilliant writer and thinker.  He is no slouch.  But Webb has several problems to overcome before he can overcome Senator Allen.  First off, the support of his bloggers has casued many establishment Democrats in Virginia to wince.  They have routinely mocked Miller, with one blogger doctoring a photo to show Miller having urinated himself.  Their harsh attacks on Miller, a popular Democrat within the state who has shelled out millions of dollars to state Dems, has caused a problem.  Webb, whether he likes it or not, will be held accountable to his supporters actions.

Secondly, Webb has work to do with black voters.  As a man who says that he proundly served under Ronald Reagan, that does not bdoe well for deep support among black Democrats.  The problem won't be blacks voting for Allen, but blacks staying home.  Allen has spent the last five and a half years trying to win some black support, mostly through his sponsorship of legislation apologizing to African-Americans for the Senate not passing anti-lynching laws three generations ago.  

Webb's victory also posses problems for the Warner Ring, the supporters of ex-Governor and 2008 aspirant Mark Warner.  Miller was in tight with Warner, a key advisor and contributor throughout his 02-06 governorship.  Though Warner gurus Dave "Mudcat" Saunders and Steve Jarding were behind Webb's candidacy, Miller was supported by Warner, Inc--The Washington Post, ex-Lt. Governor Donald Beyer, Paul Goldman, Mayor Doug Wilder, and other Northern Virginia and Richmond Democrats that were the backbone of Warner's victorious coalition.  Where Warner goes on this will be interesting.  Naturally, he will support Webb, but as much as 2006 is a test of strength for Allen's presidential ambitions, it could be for Warner, too.  A disasterous challenge by Webb could do Warner harm in his home base.    

Another problem for Webb is his politics.  While against the Iraq War, Webb is still essentially a Republican.  Look at his campaign website: http://www.webbforsenate.com/issues/

Notable quotes:

"The testing and accountability included in No Child Left Behind are a good first step. "

"The primary concern must be securing the border. Immediate action is needed to stem the flow of illegal border crossings. Approaching the issue using an omnibus bill that attempts to solve all three issues simultaneously creates a political stalemate that delays the border security solution"

Webb has an issue problem.  Like John Kerry, Webb relies on his military past too much.  His campaign slogan is "Born Fighting."  He has spent very little time speaking about national issues with an emphasis on results.  The reason is becasue Webb, other than Iraq and jobs, is a Republican.  He has made no statement on where he stands on taxes, the courts, abortion, and issues like that.  Here is what the Washington Post asked about Webb in its endorsement of Harris Miller:

"But since announcing his candidacy he seems to have given scant time and attention to issues ranging from education to tax policy to immigration, as if the cachet of his military past excuses him from having to master the pressing questions of the present -- not the best trait for a candidate for the Senate. Mr. Webb's somewhat strident populism on trade policy tends toward xenophobic sloganeering and business-bashing. And while he is right to focus concern on the widening disparities of Americans' income and wealth, his ideas about the problem's causes and possible antidotes are sketchy"

(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/01/AR200606010
1552.html)

Lastly, and this is something Virginia Democrats don't seem to realize yet, but this is GEORGE ALLEN.  This isn't some B-list benchwarmer like Jerry Kilgore or Mark Earley--this is the kingpin of Republican politics in Virginia.  Allen will have an absolutely united state party behind him.  For Webb to win, he needs Republican votes.  Allen isn't likely to lose them.  Allen's past electoral history, unlike Earley and Kilgore (the Gov. candidates in '01 and '05), is masterful.  He was a four-term delegate in the 80s from Charlottesville, rising to minority whip.  He won a special election to Congress in 1991, and when he was gerrymandered out of office in '92, he ran for governor.  The Democratic candidate, AG Mary Sue Terry, had been in office for 8 years and was seen a rising star nationally.  She had the full support of the Clintons and the entire party.  She stood in August with a 30 point lead, but by November watched it evaporate in Allen's dust has he won with near 53%.  As Govenror, Allen was wildly popular, passing conservative legislation through a Democratic legislature--abolition of parole, mandatory state testing in high school (SOLs-Standards of Learning), and tough welfare reforms.  He left office in 1997 with his succesor (Jim Gilmore) in place.  In 2000, he challenged 2-term senator and former governor Chuck Robb and beat him decisivley in a year that was not good for GOP Senate candidates.  In the Senate, Allen has sat prominantly on the foreirgn relations committee, as well as heading the RSCC in '04, picking up seats and knocking off Tom Daschle.  

In short--George Allen is the big leagues.  

James Webb has a lot of work ahead of him.  Uniting his fractious party, winning over black voters who distrust his Reagan roots, finding a winning message to appease his conscience and his liberal blogger masters, and attempting to climb Mount Allen is his mission, and he has five months to do it.  He said he was "Born Fighitng," and Jim Webb needs every bit of that fight to even come close to knocking off George Allen.

In the end, Republicans might be scared that this seat is in jeopardy, much like Colorado in 2002.  But its not.  Webb's ecclectic run mirros that of Oliver North in 1994, and it will end the same way.  Maybe a little fear will bring attention and money to Allen, but it will be a mirage.  Unless Iraq and the economy turn to hell, Allen is safe.  But we still need to fight like mad for him.