SEN-WA: The Art of Persuasion
By Adam C2 Posted in 2006 — Comments (12) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I mentioned last week that Washington state is now in the top tier of Senate races. Since then, I've done some digging on Mr. McGavick and become very impressed with the man. On the tech side, he has his own campaign blog and a superb website. More importantly, he is following in the footsteps of Sen. Gorton and Mr. Rossi and their successful brand of Washingtonian Republicanism.
Mr. McGavick is a businessman with a savvy for selling his product. He helped get Sen. Gorton elected and served as his cheif of staff. Later he led SafeCo Insurance as their CEO. Now he is in the business of selling himself. And taking a look at a recent review by a left-of-center Washington journalist, he is succeeding:
McGavick's appealing to Democrats by finding common ground on things they and Republicans can easily agree on — such as the partisanship issue. He openly blames Republicans as well as Democrats for the problems, which has given him credibility with that particular group of Democrats.
He already has them interested and agreeing on small points. Next, he'll start to close them on slightly larger, but still basically non-controversial issues — like health care costs. He openly asks, who knows more about this particular topic than the CEO of a major insurance company? Once he has them agreeing again, the issues will get incrementally larger until he has either turned them off — and they go back to Cantwell — or subverted (closed) them. It's Salesmanship 101 — and McGavick is a Master Salesman.
More below.
Importantly, he is selling himself to moderate Democrats and independents, thus growing the pool of potential Republican voters. This pool was a majority for Mr. Rossi (before the third recount) and could very well be one for Mr. McGavick. Republicans could use more people like Mr. McGavick who are reaching out and winning over the disaffected middle in purple and left-of-center states. Hopefully, Mr. Kennedy (MN) and the Republicans in Michigan are taking notes.
Except for an occasional barb, he's not running all that hard against Cantwell directly, but more against Washington DC and its highly polarized partisanship. He alludes that Cantwell is part of the problem without saying it directly, and comes across as a voice of reason willing to reach out across that great divide.
Recalling that this analysis is by an openly pro-Democratic pundit:
As a Democrat, even knowing going in that if elected, McGavick is going to have to support President Bush and advocate for things you can't agree with, when you meet him, you like the guy. You realize immediately he's not anything like what you may have been led to believe. That's his ace in the hole — and where I believe Cantwell and the party have seriously underestimated him. He's very warm, immediately likable, and empathetic, yet smooth, polished, and extremely effective one-on-one, and in small group situations. Contrast this to Cantwell's cool, aloof, distant, and somewhat combative personality — and if you've ever met her personally, you understand exactly what I mean.
The last thing Cantwell should do is challenge McGavick to a debate. In his calm, reasonable manner, he will eat her alive — and you may still not know where he stands when it's over. All you'll know is that Cantwell lost.
So what's the bottom line:
Given the time until the election, McGavick's poll numbers, his ability to avoid being pinned down on the issues, his ability to raise serious money, and most of all, his reasonable, likable demeanor — especially when contrasted to Cantwell — if this guy can meet and talk to enough moderate and/or conservative Democrats, he can win.
Reaching out. Winning over new voters to your side. It's retail politics. And regardless of your place in the Republican spectrum, the ability to win over voters is a key to winning elections in all states but especially in the states that are competitive or lean left. Hopefully, Mr. McGavick will keep up his successful efforts through November.
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*Rossi won the first count, and the first recount. It was only after repeated suspicious discoveries of more ballots in King County that Rossi lost the final recount. Additionally, the margin of error was many times the margin of "victory".
Murray has not made me happy with regard to tax reform.
This report fits in nicely with a definition of politics I have been tinkering with lately. To wit:
Politics is the art of getting your opponent or colleague to do what you want by making them think it is what they want.
Good for Mr. McGavick. He just may win this election as a payback from the voters for the robbery of the governor's mansion from Mr. Rossi.
Great article, Adam. Reading this, I wish McGavick would start getting a little more specific - attach the incumbent to an identifiable piece of legislation or movement that turns off Washington voters, whether it be antiwar extremism or pro-partial birth abortion, or whatever it is that has Cantwell in trouble in the polls. Every challenger in every election says "Senator X is part of the problem in Washington" and this rarely works. McGavick needs to start tying Cantwell to specific offenses, not just vague character flaws like partisanship. Accusing the opposition of partisanship doesn't win elections. Voters may not like the type of partisanship where politicians call each other "losers" or put holds on appointees because of personal grudges, but they do like the type of partisanship where there are two identifiable options presented to them and they get to choose one or the other. This process elects unlikeable and uncharismatic politicians to Washington quite regularly. Having partisan Democrats gush over your likeability is good for your ego, but it is merely the opening step. McGavick must actively translate his likeability into actual persuasion, because the latter does not automatically follow from the former. He can start by challenging Cantwell to a debate or two, as this article points out.
if it means a win.
But even if it just means that the Dems have to spend thousands and thousands here that they can't spend in Ohio or Minnesota, it still might be worth it.
I'm wondering if the Rossi "loss" will also effect this race as far as turnout goes for McGavick.
Hopefully the fact that Rossi did, in fact, lose a very close election will make Republicans rush out to the polls will make them remember that every vote counts, and get out there.
Unless you can prove fraud, I see no reason to pretend that Rossi really won.
if while he is doing the "vote for me because I'm the guy for the job," somebody else is out there telling everyone "how bad and evil" Cantwell is, e.g., PACs and 527s etc.
And he's doing it WithOut smearing his opponent.
I like the way this guy is running his campaign. I haven't seen it very often outside of my homestate.
He's out there convincing people that HE is the guy for the job. Not that Cantwell isn't. he is selling Himself. Not how bad and evil his opposition is.
THIS is how you unify the voting blocs.
It isn't him or someone associated with him.
That's the sort of thing that good folks from Redstate and similar oganizations can do for him.
This post today at Sound Politics is worth a read: "A Good Day for Mike McGavick".
McGavick needs all of the grassroots support he can get; it's out there, and people are still ticked off about the last governor's race -- so that card is definitely in play (the 2000 election was also close). Look for a continued tightening of this race as the summer floats along -- so DO get involved either by grabbing a McGavick banner or promoting the broad range of media on his site.
P.S. This will make for an interesting read.