Redstate

There was also a corroborating Wall Street Journal poll.

I'm certainly not counting Katherine out.

One issue I think that Katherine should hit Bill Nelson HARD HARD HARD on is that Bill Nelson's vote for the Senate Immigration plan was a vote to further strain an already crippled Social Security system by opening it up to the millions of illegal immigrants in this country.

I think she could play that to devestating effect in Florida's retirement communities.

But I'm certainly not exaggerating the fact that Jeb Bush's incompetent meddling in the Florida Senate race, which has played to the GOP's detriment (though to what degree may be arguable)has made him look very bad.

She's polling in the 20s last I saw.  There are more important, cheaper races that will matter more.  May I recommend MD, MN, WA, OH, NJ and MO as places where the probability that a $20 will change an outcome is greater.  If we are looking at races where the R is done by over 30 points, then I'd prefer NE, WV, and NM get some notice before FL.  They all have strong challengers polling higher than Harris is.

That was horrible.

predate those efforts.  In fact, her high negative ratings are the reason the state and national GOP wanted a different candidate.  She may be marginally worse off due to their efforts, but she was already hurting long before that.  Most recently she polled in the low 20s.  Without the intra-party squabble, I'd say she'd probably be in the low 30s which is about the same as the R in NM that no one can probably name.

Put simply, I think your causality is backwards.

and support Katherine Harris for US Senate.

Jeb & Co. screwed up substantially. Early on, the polls had Katherine Harris within 10. Then, Jeb & Co. went insane and looked high and low for someone even crazier than they were to try to actually RUN AGAINST KATHERINE HARRIS!?

Most of the cooler heads in the GOP actually asked to engage in that endeavor didn't have to think to hard before coming to the conclusion that that would NOT be a very rewarding endeavor.

Then, when Jeb & Co.'s lunacy seemed to finally be ebbing, Katherine's polling v. Nelson started recovering. But then, Jeb & Co. went into a mad fit again and started beating the brush to get someone to run against her - and it has left us in the current predicament.

It all raises serious doubts about how effective of a national GOP party leader Jeb Bush would be. He has handled the Florida Senate race with the utmost incompetence.

Rep. Harris was on 1270 WFLA this morning talking to the early morning guy and I was impressed.  

I don't see anyone beating her in the primary, and once the real campaigning gets going she'll get a little more name/face recognition with all the regular voters.  

Being from northwest Florida, it doesn't take too much to get us to vote for a conservative.  Sure a lot more people live down south, but 50,000 votes is 50,000 votes no matter how you look at it.  If we think you're a true conservative, despite the fact that 80% of us are registered Democrats, we're going to vote (R) every time.

I think Harris can win, despite the fact that for some absurd reason the Republicans down here seemingly want her to fail.

I don't get it either.  

2000-Bush wins FL.  Dems and race-baiters cry foul.

2002-Jeb Bush reelected, while Katherine Harris is elected to Congress.

2004-George W Bush wins FL, while Mel Martinez wins open Senate seat.

2006-Six years later, why is it that Harris is hated?

The problem is that Florida is the 3rd most populous state in the union.  You can't just backseat any Senate run here.  Allowing Nelson an uncontested run will seriously damage prospects going forward in 2008.  Since Jeb is the most powerful Republican in the state, heck perhaps in the Southeast, it would behoove the Republicans to make a stand here.  

Is Harris my first or even second choice?  Heck no, but given the thorn in the side that Nelson is to the country, we'd better be ready to play in this dance, else the long term effect will certainly play out worse for us in the future.

Why, oh why, isn't Jeb running for the Senate?

I heard that the gop congressional candidates are also pulling away from her...

poor lady.

She sounded very perky and hyper which is fine for, say, Katie Couric at 6am.  Not exactly what I'm looking for in a government official.

for the GOP to go on the air and define Nelson so that WHOEVER gets through would have a better shot.

I'm guessing very people know who her primary opponents are.  I'd bet there are lots of Florida Republicans who don't know who they are.

Which makes the fact that she's only around 50% in the primary polls kind of disturbing and just a sign of what very well could be a humiliation on the order of the GOP loss to Schmuckie Schumer in NY in 2004 (Schumer won 71-25, even Republicans weren't voting for the GOP candidate).  In a state like NY that may be understandable, but in a place like FL there's no reason for a Democrat to win by more than 4 or 5 points.

she is that unpopular. I am skeptical of those pols as well.

What about a President who ushers his wife into the Senate (Clinton). Granted, they didn't serve together, although they did both get lucrative book deals together.

It's still a shame that Jeb Bush doesn't run for the Senate from FL. He could win it easily, and he would be a reliable vote for his brother the President, and for four years beyond.

The same poll that shows Senator Nelson with only a 48% favorability rate shows Harris with only a 20% favorability rate and an amazing 58% unfavorability rate.  

She simply has no chance to win.  This race is winnable, but not by her.

There was one outlier poll that had her within 10 which took place after Jeb and others had already shown their displeasure.  Here is the order of polls that I assume you are referring to:

Harris 33 (27) (34) (40) (31)

Nelson 60 (57) (55) (49) (54)

Put otherwise, Nelson's lead was 23, 9, 21, 30, and now 27.  That happens every 1 in 20 polls but it is not reflective of the race.

Harris was done before she started.  If she wins, it will be amazing but there are other races that could use the money and effort more effectively.

You seem to forget that on the Left and in the MSM rules only apply to Republicans.  Democrats are forgiven their sins because they commit them in order to "help people" and to "stop evil Republicans from hurting people."

Since all things Democrat are good, the ends justify all means.  And since everything a Republican does is evil, no means is justified to attain the ends.

The problem with that solution is that the deadline for filing for the primary has passed.  There was a big to do here speculating about some last minute change of heart by JEB, but the deadline passed and he didn't file.  So, like it or not, if Harris wins the primary, she's the candidate.

Forgive my ignorance, but I don't know who her competition is in the primary.

as polarizing and partisan.  This turns off not only potential moderate Democratic votes, but also the 20-30% of voters who are independent and often dislike partisanship in all its forms.  Usually these voters go 60-40 one way or the other at most.  In this race, they are likely to go 90-10 and give Nelson a 60-40 win.  The whole reason national and state Rs were hoping she wouldn't run is because all of this analysis and these poll numbers were probably well known within those communities.

If she wins, that's great.  But I hope RedState spends its time, energy, and money more efficiently elected Sens. McGavick, Kennedy, Steele, and Kean and defending a few others.  As I said up thread, if we want longshot races then WV and NM are already closer in polls.

I am of the opinion that that we should not give to Harris (or Laffey) unless you've already given the maximum to Kennedy (MN), McGavick (WA), Kean (NJ), Steele (MD), Van Hillary or Bryant (TN), Talent (MO), Burns (MT), Butler or Bouchard (MI), Ricketts (NE), DeWine (OH), Raese (WV), and last (and probably least) Santorum (PA). Or unless Harris actually shows quite a bit of momentum in her favor.

It's about prioritizing.  And there are better investments right now.

They should have seen from the very beginning that no one save Jeb Bush could have possibly beaten Katherine Harris and coalesced around her from the very moment they realized she couldn't be persuaded to bow out.

I don't know if the damage that the GOP Establishment has done to The Harris Campaign is irreparable or not - but they have shot the GOP's best chances to pick up the Florida seat in the foot. It shows that Jeb, Karl Rove, and Elizabeth Dole were incompetantly and disgracefully dense on their approach to this race from the very beginning.

mailed to my house.  Gives the top ten reasons why KH is going to beat her "general election" opponent.  I saw the poll with her losing 61-26 or something.  I can't believe that the Repub Governor is gong to win by 10% and the Senate candidate is going to lose by 40%.  Impossible.  But what do I know?

The good news is that Nelson's favorable number is below 50%, but I wonder what KH's favorable/unfavorable split? That's another point that's missing in this. I can't imagine it's a good number seeing that she is slipping in polling against Nelson. If Harris has a 35/65 split, is it still worth pouring time & money into her race to drive Nelson's unfavorable rating up?

I do agree with the shut up and let her fight though.

if you are talking about Republicans who don't live in Florida.  For residents of the state, however, I would argue that they should whole-heartedly support her.  

There is more honor in fighting it out and losing, as opposed to rolling over and playing dead the way the Illinois GOP did against Barack Obama 2 years ago.  I can't stomach another disgrace like that.

My guess is that he has designs on some or other office in the near future that he doesn't want to take on the Senate seat.  He's been talked about as an excellent VP choice for several of the guys with their hats in the ring, and probably has a pretty good shot at the spot should McCain, Romney or Giuliani win the nod (McCain would want the conservatism Bush brings, and the other two would be well served by a popular southerner).  JEB doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that would run for Senate now and then resign only about a year into the term to run for VP (or be an absentee Senator while running ala Kerry and Edwards).  So he sits this one out and waits to see what 2008 brings.

Second possibility is that he's not the legislative type.  Some people are executives - they function best as a solitary decision-maker.  Many executive types have wound up hating a Senate seat because of the horse-trading and gridlock that comes with the legislative process.  It's not for them.  I would wonder if JEB is really the type that would enjoy the kind of crap that goes on in the Senate.  Neither brother did legislative duty - the closest you get is W's failed congressional bid way back when.  Both have run and won executive positions, and I don't think they want to be legislators.

Third possibility - with W still in the White House nothing good would come of Jeb being in the Senate for those first two years.  The Left would be all over him and W for every vote and would persistently throw around charges of nepotism, improper influence by the White House over Jeb, etc.  It would also be awkward for Jeb should he feel it necessary to break with the White House on anything even vaguely significant.  Would you want to be in Congress while your older brother was in the White House?  If I had an older brother, I probably wouldn't.  Hell, I really wouldn't want to be there if my younger brother were in the White House.  Especially if he won his office first (it may have been different if Jeb were already in Congress when W was elected).

She's already been thrown in front of the bus by the party. It's too late for her to mount any kind of halfway-serious effort.

Nepotism?  You mean it would be like naming your brother to be Attorney General and another brother to the Senate?  The press would have a field day with that...wait a minute, sorry, I almost lost my head, the Press LOVED (still LOVES) the Kennedys, so your point is completely valid....sorry about giving the Press the benefit of the doubt.

Okay ... here is the big question.  Is Harris enough of a negative to bring out Democratic voters to the polls?

If the answer is YES then we should toss her in the primary for ANYONE and therefore at least preserve the governor's race.

If the answer is NO then I think the comments listed above about the governor winning by +10 and the senator losing by -40 not making sense come into play.

Also, my guess is that some people saying they would vote for Nelson over Harris don't mean it, but they are doing so to drive Harris out at the primary level (I've done this in surveys before).  However, if Harris does survive the primary, they will then come clean and admit that they will vote for Harris.  Which is to say that I think that after the primary, if she wins, she gets an immeadiate bounce into the mid thirties at least ... which doesn't mean she'll win, but she'll start making it closer.

November 2000

"For me, when someone sounds like they want to be "the great uniter" it is far too suspicious in that it means that they want to present a Republican facade and are either a moderate or a liberal in disguise and are definitively a people pleaser in that they will sway with the wind."

You might be right.  Didn't we have someone else who said he wanted to be a "a uniter, not a divider".  And who turned out to be moderate or liberal.....

It's been a while ago, but I was listening to her as she called into a talk radio show.  Without knowing who she was, at the time, I was shocked at someone who was completely convinced that she was the great uniter.  She was 100% positive that not only was she the best republican there was, but also that she was the only one in the country that could make democrats believe and vote for republican issues.  I believe in confidence, but the arrogance was astounding to the point where I questioned her sanity.  To the host's credit, he let her go and questioned her gently.

When I say that she came off sounding drugged, I'm being kind.  I came home, after a long car ride, feeling saddened that this was someone running for a Republican position and questioned Leon as to who this person was.  Keep in mind that I didn't know her name until AFTER the interview and even then it only vaguely crossed my mind that it could be the same Katherine Harris.  

For me, when someone sounds like they want to be "the great uniter" it is far too suspicious in that it means that they want to present a Republican facade and are either a moderate or a liberal in disguise and are definitively a people pleaser in that they will sway with the wind.  She's not getting my money and I would be dismayed if we supported her over the many others that have a background of standing firmly behind our issues.

She is seen as the icon of partisanship (rightly or wrongly).  Thus, she has almost no support from Ds or Is.  That is about 60+% of the population.  She can probably bring up her showing in the R circles, but that probably won't even break 40% overall in the general.  If she makes it within 10 points, I'd say she exceeded expectations.

Miami-Dade County (Miami), Broward County, Palm Beach County, Hillsborough County (Tampa). Together they constitute about half the votes in the state and they are all heavily Democrat. And lets not forget Broward/Palm Beach 2000.

The fact that Katherine Harris is even going to be on the ballot in those two counties is a testment to the strenth of the American political system :-)

I think this little episode speaks volumes about the duplicity of the Republican Party establishment.  Here we have a loyal Conservative who is being shunned by the Rep. Est. while at the same time this same establishment is defending the candidacy of Linc Chafee, hardly loyal to the Conservative cause.  My theory on why Harris is getting the cold shoulder goes back to her dealings with the 2000 election.  She did the right thing in complying with Florida election law, but because the Reps. are so afraid of the MSM they want to distance themselves from her.  The Dem in Florida is vulnerable and we are not even trying to win that seat because we don't the 2000 election brought up by the Kos-sites.  Unbelievable!

McCain has been very clear that he thinks Jeb would be a good running mate.  A Senator would certainly be wise to choose a governor as his running mate.

Romney and Giuliani would face different considerations.  A governor or mayor running for President would want to back up the ticket with someone who has Washington, specifically national security credentials.  I know Giuliani is already seen as tough on these issues, but he would want someone with congressional or administration experience.  Rice would seem an obvious person for a governor-led ticket.  Though Giuliani specifically would probably name someone who was pro-life.

Someone should drug Jeb's drink and make him run. He could win the primary as a write in over anyone else and he would trounce Nelson in November.