Redstate

Well, not in my original post.

They've contacted me several times this year for donations, and my reply has always been the same:

1. Control the spending.
   
   
2. Cut the taxes.
   
   
3. Confirm the judges.
   
   
4. Secure the borders.
   
   
5. Win the war.

As far as bringing the RI perspective to this race, I'm happy to report but not necessarily the best choice for analysis: I was raised in KY and have only lived in RI for about 3 years. So I guess that makes me an outside insider.

3 years is not nearly enough time to understand the way politics work in this state!

I believe at last count, there were about ~14,000 folks registered as "Independents," including a lot of Dem's who drop their affiliation to game the primary. (A friend of mine recently admitted that he had done exactly that to vote against Laffee-- he's a lib, living in Laffee's Cranston, RI.)

I'm a complete outsider to the Rhode Island Republican machine, but from what I gather, they're pretty heavily influenced-- if not infiltrated-- by labor. I don't think that a KY conservative is going to have a whole lot in common with a typical RI Republican.

I also had my registration somehow switched to Democrat, though of course I have never registered as a Democrat. Honest mistake? Around here, anything's possible. I believe the "glitch" is fixed now but I have no idea what's going to happen when I show up to vote at the primary.

In the last election I was surprised to see the candidate and several burly associates milling around on the sidewalk outside my polling place. You know, just saying, "Hi!" as folks pushed past them to get inside and vote.

It's all taking some time to get used to.

Good idea.  I'd love to be in RI to partake of this excitement.

And actually, recent polls show that whatever lead Chafee has on Whitehouse is within the margin of error at best.  I've seen some numbers putting him slightly behind Whitehouse.  And none of them are good as they all seem to max Chafee out at the low to mid-40s.  For an incumbant, that's dangerous.  I'm not even sure that Republicans coming home after the primary (should Chafee win) would get him up to the 50% number that most would need to call him "safer."

What's the news from RI on the GOP convention?  I know Laffey sat out.  I also know that former Gov. Almond and current Gov. Carcieri both won their primaries (and general elecctions) running against Republicans that won the convention endorsement.  How is it that the convention seems to wind up out of touch with their own voters?

their priorities did not include a run for the US Senate.  I don't know what it would have taken to convince them to enter the fray.

Power, for power's sake, seems to be enough for the standard dem candidate, but I suppose that wasn't enough for Hoeven, Capito or Miller.  I haven't heard their reasoning for declining a Senate run at this time.

Are you privy to any info - polls, lack of money, ideological position, personal ambition or current political atmosphere?

satisfied with Sen. Dole's recruitment effort either, and I must confess - she is my senior senator.  Florida was a missed opportunity for a GOP pick-up in the US Senate.

In her defense, I pretty sure it's extremely difficult to find successful conservative candidates who are willing to subject themselves to the viciously contentious political atmosphere in Washington while voluntarily agreeing to take a cut in pay.

That is her job. To get incumbents re-elected and get open seats filled with the best candidate.

If you are going to complain, she's doing a better job with #1 than #2.

I just sleep with one eye open... and two hands typing.

I don't think the point was to complain about the job Dole is doing.  I think it was more a convenient launching point for talking about Chafee.

We've of course talked about this at RedState many times.  But the diarist is actually from RI, a perspective that is usually lacking in our talks here.

I'm with you that Dole (and Schumer) are first and foremost incumbant defenders - no matter how "bad" those incumbants might be.  The only way to "drop" an incumbant is to convince him to retire and let them go with an open seat (in fact I would have liked to see the GOP go this route with Conrad Burns in MT who is perenially a weak campaigner and has the Abramoff cloud hanging around him).  Chafee was not going to drop out, so Dole has to support him.

Of course, I wish the NRSC would respect Reagan's 11th Commandment and do less on the "anti-Laffey" front.  If Chafee is worth renominating, then tell us why.  Don't tear down a fellow Republican.  That's my only complaint with the NRSC in this.

Success: McGavick, Steele, and Kean.

Failures: Hoeven (ND), Osbourne/Heinneman/Johanns (NE), dozens (FL), Capito (WV), anyone (NM), Miller (MI), Guiliani/Pataki (NY) and Thompson (WI).

Of course one can't get their first choice every time, but Hoeven, Capito, Miller, and one other could have been convinced.

I'll give you ND, NM, and MI.

My take on the others:

NE - Johanns is Bush's fault - he took him out of the state to make him Ag Sec. - why should he step down to run for Senate, a by no means certain victory.  If Bush had left Johanns as Gov. I think he would have run.  The others wanted to be Gov and that means you're arguing the merits of executive vs. legislative office.  Most people will pick the executive office every time.

FL - We witnessed very publicly the attempt to find a better person in FL.  The only person who wasn't courted in public was Jeb Bush (and we don't know what may have gone on behind the scenes between W and his brother).  We also know that none of the targets were willing to take the bait, and Harris wasn't willing to drop out even with the pressure on her.  I don't think you can blame Elizabeth Dole for that one - that's a general GOP failure, White House, NRSC, and the Florida state apparatus.

WV - That was a personal thing.  News reports said that even Capito's father wanted her to run.  So there was as much pressure on her as you could get and she still opted out.  If she didn't respond to her father, what makes you think any Senator (and the alternative to Sen. Dole was Norm Coleman) would be able to sway her?  People aren't machines, they have independent wills - you can't fault the recruiter every time the recruit doesn't respond positively.

NY - We all know that Giuliani has eyes on a run for Prez in 2008.  He's not going to risk his political life on a run against an incumbant who has good approval ratings in a state that leans her way.  And Pataki is a joke.  His retirement has more to do with the fact that most NYers don't like him anymore than with his desire to run for president.  Last poll before he announced showed 25% of Republicans wanted a new nominee.  Pataki would get beat only somewhat less severely than the current possibilities will.  And Hill still wouldn't break a sweat.

WI - Thompson still throws around the idea of running, but in the end, Tommy's an executive.  He's not built for legislative work.  And while we might say he should "take one for the team" - not everybody thinks they need to, or should, sacrifice their lives for 6, 12, 18 years just because the party asked them to.  Besides which, I still think he may be in the game for 2008 as well (maybe as a VP possibility considering that WI is so close to flipping and the fact that the midwest is a key area - Thompson could work wonders in not only WI, but MN and MI, as well as sealing up IA and OH.

note that living in ND or DC is a big difference and many in the former don't particularly like the latter.

My main point is just that Sen. Dole's job is to recruit people.  It may be more difficult for Republicans, but it's still her job.