The Tide That Never Came
By machiavel Posted in 2006 — Comments (46) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Brian Bilbray won in CA-50, but more importantly, he exceeded expectations.
For the Kos Kidz, still winless in general elections, there are no "moral victories" to be claimed. The Hotline's John Mercurio said 48% for Busby would still count as a win for Democrats. She barely cleared 45% -- what she received in the primary.
What's more, 45% is a pretty standard Democratic percentage in the 50th. Between Bilbray, a border security independent and the Libertarian, center-right candidates received 54.72% of the vote in CA-50 to Busby's 45.28%. George W. Bush won the district by 11.3% in 2004.
This is their perfect storm: a disgraced exemplar of the "culture of corruption", an uninspiring GOP candidate, disquiet over immigration, and a Democratic primary for governor to turn out their voters, and they move the needle by less than 2 points.
What was the effect of Busby's "papers" comment? Probably about 2 points. Which means Bilbray probably would have won anyway. Republicans outpaced Democrats in absentee returns by 20 points, resulting in an 8% net for Bilbray. The vast majority of these absentees were cast before the Busby comment received any play. The district as a whole is 15 points more Republican than Democratic. Take the pre-"papers" vote and apply it to the district-wide registration and you get a 3% edge for Bilbray, who wound up winning by 4.
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If Busby had won, or narrowly lost, we would have heard ad nauseum how that bodes ill for Republicans this autumn and how it shows the need to pass "comprehensive immigration reform." As it is, there is no credible way to claim either thing. So, per normal, we don't hear about this election incessantly on the major networks.
The worst result that would have come from a Busby win would have been the media-created perception that would have galvanized Democrats and depressed Republicans, and had encouraged the House GOP to jump on the sinking SS Senate Bill 2611... well, it didn't happen. Voters still don't trust Democrats and plainly don't want open borders and amnesty. It is a temptation to read too much into this election, and I think that is the most that can be divined from it.
There's always Haditha. Or Joe Wilson. Or how the economy isn't as good as it seems. Or, or, or...DieBold.
> The County is fairly solidly republican.
I think that's only if you limit it to people with "papers." :-)
I believe it actually has a 14pt GOP advantage - but that's with a full turnout. Turnout was expected to be near 50%, but last night they were projecting only 34-40%.
I think that this whole Culture of Corrpution thing is not going to play well. If it didn't work in Nancy Pelosi's backyard where there actually was a corrupt congressman being replaced, it certainly isn't going to affect anyone else's races - unless that candidate, specifically, is accused of corruption.
Which means that Burns (R-MT), Ney (R-OH), Mollohan (D-WV), Jefferson (D-LA), and maybe even McKinney (D-GA) need to watch their backs. I'd put Minority Leader Reid (D-NV) on that list, too, if he were running this year with his ties to Abramoff and for taking bribes from the Las Vegas gaming industry.
Jim Harwood in his opening remarks indicated that Bilbray spells relief for the GOP. Then went into detail how the results of the CA-50 election was horrible news for the GOP. He made it seem that the election was extremely close and that the political winds are churning.
It seems he had his story ready for a Busby win and when Bilbray won, he just changed the opening remark and went on with his original story that matched a Busby win.
If I not heard his opening remark I would have thought Busby won..
Busby lost because she isn't/wasn't liberal enough!
Busby's loss was a loss no matter how it's spun, but it's also a clear sign that the Democrats must become a progressive party. [...]The lesson from last night should be clear. Hiding from progressives and the left will lead to Democratic losses in 2006. Running as a progressive will lead to victory. Running on 'issues' and 'competence' instead of character will lead to Democratic losses.
http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/6/7/101138/8639
Here's hoping the Democrats take the advice.
...I hope Club for Growth is out recruiting a candidate to beat him in 2008. :-)
he is a professional politician. He may very well see what he needs to do to keep his seat and maybe, just maybe, he will do it.
As it is now on dkos
I'm wondering if also that the Rob "Meathead" Reiner proposition for gubmint-funded preschool also helped Bilbray. The proposition went down to defeat. It probably motivated some anti-taxers/anti-nanny-staters to come out that normally would have stayed home.
I would have to agree with Chris Bowers. Bilbray ran to the LEFT of Busby on almost every issue. Busby ran an uninspiring, middle-of-the-road, consultant-driven, "vote for me because I'm not Republican" campaign, and she got what she deserved.
Put Paul Hackett in that district, and it would have been a Democratic blowout.
ran to the "left" of Busby in a moderately Republican district and still won?
Just keep believing that. It is really very, very precious.
'Character does not count' and now you have the gutz to think you can run on it?
Let us see:
Cunningham (R) tossed out
Delay(R) shoved out
Jefferson (D) can't even execute a search warrant on his office and tells everyone to stick it, he is staying.
Kennedy (D) "I am a poor black child" in office
Reid (D) Oh, I needed those tickets.
Yes, please run as progressives in a country that has not voted majority democrat in a Presidential election since 1976.
why, when things go their way it means everything, but when things go our way it means nothing.
Rush just made this point in his own inimitable way.
You think that a left-running Republican, running in a right-leaning district (which is pretty much guarnateed to depress the turnout in what ought to be his base) and still getting his base to vote for him means that running a communist/socialist on the Democrat party will result in a stunning upset?
Must be that new math stuff. Glad I learned the old system, even if arithmetic is still my weak suit.
Forgot to install my irony-meter.
There, that is all better!
...but I feel a little more energized and optimistic going into November today after Brian Bilbray's win!
... I have to say huh? Bilbray ran as the moderate Republican that he is (except on the immigration issue) and won in a largely moderate Republican district. What issue positions did she take that were clearly to the LEFT of Bilbray? Name five or ten of then, given that you say "on almost every issue."
Why do I think you're one of the people who still believe that we would have Howard Dean as President if he had won the Democratic nomination.
That should read "what issues did he run to the left of her on?"
Or am I skinning my ignorance yet again? I though this election was for the remainder of the current term.
also he won the primary for the R's (so did Busby on the D side) so they will face off yet again in Nov.
You sound too rational to be one, are you sure you're a liberal?
Heh, just teasing you :)
is what I was thinking
Aren't they 0 for 17 or something like that?
This has been a great morale booster for me.
I didn't see the final returns, but some of the early returns showed Bilbray winning the GOP primary for November's rematch by >80%. Despite the fact that there were many Republicans in the special election primary, GOP voters seem to have united behind Bilbray for November.
These results could be a good strategy lesson for November, between the pro-border enforcement Republicans in the House, and the pro-immigration Republicans in the Senate. Bilbray campaigned as pro-enforcement in a California district not far from the Mexican border, and despite having another pro-enforcement Independent in the race, won the district against a Democrat who was caught trying to get illegal aliens to campaign for her.
Forget about the spin in the liberal MSM--when the question was put to border-state voters, border enforcement won and pro-immigrant lost.
How to keep the House in November 2006--it's right here.
that my liberal credentials are in order. :) But at the same time I try to be a realist in terms of analyzing the nuts-and-bolts of politics. In other words, I'm not a moron who thinks if we move six steps to the left we'll sweep every election!
from what I read they have started counting moral victories instead of electoral victories. This was a moral victory because Bilbray had to campaign and spend money to win.
I'm not a moron who thinks if we move six steps to the left we'll sweep every election!
Please don't tell anyone else!
From the Virgina suburbs to Southern California, the electorate has been loud and clear: secure the border and enforce the laws; a guest worker program is something to examine much later. This is how to hold the House--listen to the voters, and maybe someone needs to forward that memo to Karl Rove.
Also, this just in: a win is better than a moral victory. Every time.
I'd say most people in this thread are right and Bowers is kidding himself.
Bilbray and Busby both ran as moderates with two exceptions. Bilbray pushed immigration hard, and Busby pushed "culture of corruption" hard. The district went with Bilbray. The culture of corruption got Busby nothing; she matched Gore 2000 and Kerry 2004 in the district.
A good measure of Bilbray's moderation can be found in the returns for the weird simultaneous primary vote for the Republican nomination for the full term on the same seat. (http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/5000.htm)
In that full-term primary, Bilbray only managed to win 55% of the Republican vote. The other 45% went to candidates on his right.
Once Bilbray was the candidate for the special election, the R's cleared the field (mostly) for him to win the primary as both elections were to be held on the same date. IOW they tried to make it a little less confusing, basically saying the previous election (pre-runoff) was the primary for this year.
even if he can't beat Pubbies. his boy Tester won the Dem nomination for Senate in MT (was winning by nearly 2-1 last I checked). which is good news for Burns, as well as Kos'...umm...errr...unblemished record vs. Republicans
You should be BEGGING me to scream it from the mountain top!! It seems like the wack-job wing of my party has some strange cognative dissonance process going on that interprets the defeat of a liberal is meaning the liberal wasn't liberal enough. Or it's just a bunch of people who know absolutely nothing about politics.
06 or 08 you can get your wackos to work a unity ticket with our Buchananites....
We could bundle them all up and ship them off there. They'd fit right in. Maybe even beat Chirac.
That's because the Dims are buying property just west of Phoenix thinking that it beachfront at low tide.
to ever happen to the GOP and the worst thing to ever happen to 2 party politics.
Perhaps the Republicans in Congress are smarter than we think. We tell them that they better get their act together or face severe electoral consequences. They look over at DailyKos and shrug their shoulders.
I believe this is incorrect. The County is fairly solidly republican.
The only source I could find quickly (I'm at work) is Wiki