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BREAKING: The Polltocracy Takes a Hit – Gallup Showing Obama and McCain nearly Tied

By: streetwise (Diary)  |  October 16th, 2008 at 04:26 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Drudge is reporting that the two are in a statistical heat: 49 to 47 favor Obama.

GALLUP’s ‘traditional’ likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll’s margin of error… Developing…

Who knew that the recent investigations of ACORN would push the Obama percentage towards McCain’s so soon!

When I find a link, I will post

Update: RCP link:


RCP Polls – see national

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COMMENTS

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  • ListKeeper

    Remember what he said in his speach at the RNC convention about taxes? Obama’s tax hikes on businesses won’t effect you unless you 1) buy stuff from a business (like groceries, gas, clothes, shelter), or 2) work for a business.

    That is a winning argument that even the Obama camp can’t spin their way out of.

    • Jaded

      the polling is an attempt to depress the vote BUT that pig don’t fly here….We will be out voting and WE will ensure a McCain win in the great REDSTATE of VA.

      • Tim_Schieferecke

        I’m having a hard time believing much of anything the media is spewing right now. Hell Brit Hume sounds like he wants to have a romantic evening with The One, I used to respect him a lot. Whatsmore, I believe there is payola going on between Soros groups and select members of even the Fox family of media. When Brit called Obama attractive, my son heard it and asked me if he was gay. I’ve never been into conspiracies, but with ACORN unfolding right in front of us and it not being presented as the huge deal it is by the media, my opinion about conspiracies is changing. Thank God for Rush, Sean and Glenn. I think any of those would rather die than take 30 pieces of silver from Soros.

  • KellieNH

    This poll has been out since 1pm and now @ 6pm it’s a blazing red headline on Drudge?! I get it, he?s trying to make it seem like all is not lost and he doesn’t want McCain supporters to give up, but c’mon! The regular Gallup has Obama up by 6. This poll you are all so excited about is skewed to account for the fact that Republican turn out is usually higher, which will most likely not be the case this year. But I don?t blame you guys. If Obama was down right now, I?d feel the same way.

    • ocleverone

      McCain will win here.

      • PaRep

        Sparkette

  • CSUFBomb

    This election is particularly volatile given the continuing uncertainty about Barry’s true superhero identity – is he Marx Man? Super Socialist? The Radical Crusader? Or plain old Senator Government from Gigantor?

    But I can’t believe that so many people actually shift back and forth so dramatically from day to day. There can’t be that many fence-sitting, namby pamby, wishy washy undecideds – can there?

    Polling has always been an inexact science, but my dartboard doesn’t seem this random.

  • Han_Pritcher

    Gallup goes from releasing one voter model a day (registered voters I believe) to three (registered voters, traditional likely, and expanded likely) and Drudge cherry-picks the one out of three that is favorable to Senator McCain and it’s news.

    They just STARTED releasing these three models. You cannot compare this number to anything they did last week or earlier because the methodology is quite different.

    Frankly I’m quite annoyed with Gallup, and was as soon as I’d heard about this cockamamie multi-model daily release. What’s the point? Three sets of numbers so everybody can pick the one they want? And I was ticked well prior to reading today’s release.

    • KellieNH

      I actually signed up earlier because I was going to comment on Brad Smiths post this morning, I’m sure you all saw that.

      Anyway, I really don’t hold much stock in polls. All we us can do is make sure our side gets out and votes.

      I just think the Drudge headline is kind of desperate, as are some headlines on Huffington Post.

      • lawguy9801

        This IS the regular Gallup poll. The “expanded” one, which tries to anticipate the increased turnout for “The One,” is the poll that has Obama up 6.

        • Tim_Schieferecke

          Not only does it skew reality, these polls are weighted because of the high numbers of Operation Chaos that registered in key states that never changed back. There will also be something called the Ayers effect after this election, because some people will undoubtedly feel TERRORIZED to say on the phone that they would vote against a TERRORIST SYMPATHIZER. Watch and learn, McCain is going to mop the floor with The One like he mopped the floor with him last night.

          • lawguy9801

            Remember how the polls said The One was going to win your state handily in the primaries? That one didn’t quite work out. In fact, if you look at the Real Clear Politics polls, Obama underperformed the polls in almost every state in the Dem primaries.

          • KellieNH

            Whatever helps you sleep!

          • E_Pluribus_Unum

            LK, you are my new best friend.

            FRED!!!!!!

          • PaRep

            .

          • NightTwister

            No matter what the outcome, they can say they were right.

  • streetwise

    Since polls are a factor in choosing who runs the government, and Dems have trouble running anything else, Dems are a pollster’s best customer!

    So you give them what they want. And if they lose, you say: “well, the “expanded” poll showed you would win, so I guess you had mobilization problems”!

    And, that, ladies and gentlemen, is the key to success in the consulting world.

    • PSDA

      I live in Virginia and travel throughout the state for work, and I can tell you that Obama has completely saturated tv and radio with his ads all over this state.

      I’ve been told that he’s outspending McCain 4-1 here, but my impression is that it must be 10-1 or 20-1.

      • KellieNH

        we agree that the polls mean nothing. I’m not here to change your mind. My point was just that the Drudge headline is ridiculous. I don want to throw mud.

        One fact remains, one of these two people is going to be the next President, and I only hope that when this election is over both sides can come together in one way or another or we’re all doomed.

        • Swamp_Yankee

          Im not sure why the MSM seemed to designate the new untested models the official models. Plus, Obama is way down in the others too. He down to six in the new model.

          • Tim_Schieferecke

            It’s got to be pretty nerve racking to try to pull off the biggest heist in American history when so many of your legion of minions are ACORN tools. I’ll bet Jesse James didn’t sleep too well either before a big bank job. Obama is an out and out socialist. We don’t do socialism very well in America. Obama will cut the head off of economic growth with a dull knife to inflict extra pain.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            Your right, this isn’t exactly breaking. But its still big. All the polls are coming down. Denial. Denial.

          • PaRep

            Mrs. 30 Minutes

          • KellieNH

            I signed up earlier with a different name, it’s a long story, but basically I gave an old email address…oh who cares

          • PaRep

            so the Drive By Media could run with the NEW UNTESTED polling

          • PaRep

            Automatic Banning right Redstate Veterans??

          • Tim_Schieferecke

            I don’t want to come together with people attempthing to steal our democracy, I want to throw such people in jail. If any on my side were doing the same, I’d feel the same way. When there are 200,000 questionable ballots in ONE STATE ALONE, we have a massive problem. I challenge you to this, point to one conservative group that is registering Mickey Mouse or the Dallas Cowboy roster. You can’t do it. That’s called Stalinism. Liberals are treading on VERY THIN ICE.

          • KellieNH

            when you dont care about polls. I am nervous I don’t know what will happen, maybe you’re all right, who knows? All I can do is make phone calls, go door to door and donate.

          • ListKeeper

            =]

          • ListKeeper

            to know that at this point in October 1980, Jimmy Carter was leading Reagan in the polls by 3 points. No wait…Reagan destroyed Carter by 10 points in the only poll that matters…the general election the first Tuesday in November.

            But then you have Mondale trailing Reagan by 4 points in October 1984. No wait…Reagan destroyed Mondale by nearly 19 points election day.

            There is always 1988 when Bush 41 had a scant 2 point lead on Dukakis in early October that year. Dang it all…Bush won by more than 8 points.

            I see a trend here. Maybe you are the one (not “The One” of course, how could you be unless “The One” has a sock-puppet!) needing a little something to help ya sleep.

            See Anne Coulter’s current article for a professional evaluation of accuracy in polling!

            http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=29050

          • PaRep

            put the Fairness Doctrine back in place, with the help of President McCain

            OOOOOOOOOPS that’s the Lefties who will put the fairness Doctrine in place

            Maybe you ought to google Fairness Doctrine

          • janis

            If a contributor to one of your guy’s websites put up something at this point that basically told all of you to give up, get over the loss, and worry about down-ticket races, what would do? Would you want to see that at this point in the race if your guy was only down 2 points?
            Would you consider it wise to give the other side of the blogosphere raw, red meat to slobber over, or would you demand that it be taken down as totally inappropriate and utterly defeatist? Your call.

          • PaRep

            I just asked about the rules, I wasn’t sure how that worked

          • KellieNH

            It would be nice to talk with people on the other side in a way that doesn’t end in me being called a terrorist sympathizer, but that seems doubtful.
            I understand the way you all feel about Obama, because I feel the same way about McCain, well actually more Palin but anyway…
            I am almost 30 years old and I am sick about the direction of this country. I truly hope that when this is all over we can come together and all put as much passion into making this country a better place as we have supporting our candidate of choice.
            Not to get all Kumbaya on you or anything.

          • PaRep

            & I don’t blame you at all for not using your Main email account

            & I also don’t blame you for forgetting the other one either that happens a lot to me at other sites

            Enjoy the site & the give & take & Welcome

          • janis

            so object to, Kellie? That is a subject that really confounds me. Take away all the miserable things that the MSM has tried to stick on her and you have an accomplished, intelligent hardworking conservative woman who is also a wife and mother.

            What’s the objection?

          • KellieNH

            I agree with your point.

          • Han_Pritcher

            You’ve called me a BORING TROLL!!!!! and asked me to leave….

            Does PaRep have a soft spot for this poster?

            Live and let live, man. We’d probably get along in real life, and there’s no reason to forget that. I’m glad to have read this post of yours.

          • Stuckinmichigan

            I hate every single thing libs stand for and want no part of bipartisinship. I want hardcore to the bone conservatives who make no effort to accept the lefts radical agenda. I am only willing to make an exception for McCain, because of Palin.

          • KellieNH

            There are a lot of websites out there that give both sides a bad name.

          • janis

            to work with here. I appreciate your reasonable attitude with regard to this point.

          • mbecker908

            The problem is BO’s.

            1. He’s been outspending McCain 3 to 1.
            2. There has yet to be a derogatory comment about him on the MSM and he gets major coverage every day.
            3. There is the “Bradley Factor” that I think is real and probably worth up to five points in McCain’s favor.
            4. Neither one of the candidates really deserves to win this based on their performance. BO hasn’t been able to rack up a convincing win anywhere. Hillary cleaned his clock in all the big states and swing states. McCain OTOH, has proven himself to be the squish I was afraid he’d be. His ads have been pretty good, his pick of Palin is great but his personal desire/ability to kill BO’s political career isn’t there.

            Bottom line, “racist Democrats” (see John Murtha’s comments) will likely put McCain over the top.

          • wt259

            she doesn’t or can’t answer, C-17 wife. Maybe she objects to an accomplished, intelligent, hardworking conservative woman who’s a wife and mother. Doesn’t fit the feminist stereotype.

          • PaRep

            I don’t dislike you & most of my friends are Liberal & I’m More Libertarian than R & that REALLY sets them off

            You know what I do despise is this kind of ….. ahh… Stuff I’ll say

            http://tinyurl.com/4tq7xj

          • therightguy

            I am afraid Iowa is in the tank for O’Stymie. Pride may go before the fall, but ignorance and stupidity will get one there. It seems the mid-western pragmatism means having your hand out for anything the government will throw in it.
            Jim
            http://www.therightguyshow.com

          • St_Louis_Conservative

            This is the “concern” troll. We appreciate your concern about Sarah Palin. If I were an Obama supporter, I’d be concerned about Palin too – she’s probably the only reason McCain has a fighting chance in this election. An energized GOP base rarely loses an election.

          • wt259

            Janis, preview is my friend, I should use it. And Kellie, 2 years experience as a governor is better than 143 days as a senator who voted “present”. Someone’s intelligence is a matter of opinion, unless you have access to material most of us don’t. Pro-choice, pro-life, that’s something that people on the two sides of that divide will probably never agree on.
            And, with economic redistribution, I would think that Obama will be the divider, if he’s elected. Most people in this country, if given the opportunity to vote on that, would vote a resounding no. The productive people, I mean.

          • PaRep

            buy it hook, line & sinker

          • BlakeW

            During the ALCS, Obama ads have run several times here in CA.

            I have to wonder why Obama would run ads in CA if California is reliably blue.

            Anyone have an explanation? Seems to me that a national ad buy during the ALCS would be prohibitively expensive, even for the Obama campaign.

          • gensec
          • PaRep

            .

          • BlakeW

            The difference between McCain supporters and Obama supporters is pretty simple.

            We conservatives know what we’re getting with McCain.

            Liberals THINK they know what they’re getting with Obama.

          • someone

            Their “traditional” likely voter model assumes 60% turnout, the highest (by a lot) in 40 years.

            Their hype likely voter model assumes two-thirds turnout, which is significantly more than has ever happened since women got the franchise.

            I very much doubt the real number is going to go much above the former, and wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t even hit that.

            Rasmussen is steady because he holds party ID constant… But he hasn’t really gotten a good measure since he adjusts by month and Palin’s nom and the credit crisis put everything into flux in September. I wouldn’t trust his numbers until just before the election.

          • soundbyte

            From http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

            Our model, indeed — crunching all of this data along with the state polling — does think Obama’s momentum had stalled out about a bit, and pegs his national lead at closer to 7 points rather than the 8-point advantage it had given him a couple of days ago. Why? I don’t know. Conventions are not the only events that produce bounces. Debates can too; if a candidate picks up, say, 3 points as the result of winning a debate, he might keep 2 of those points but give one of them back after a handful of days. To the extent that Obama has lost any steam, I sense that it is more something like that than anything constructive the McCain campaign has done.

          • soundbyte

            From http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx

            The “traditional” likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today’s results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll’s margin of error. — Frank Newport

          • JEM123

            Rove has said and continues to say Obama just cannot close the deal, so all polls are meaningless. SO many undecideds with Obama having the second highest not capable tracking numbers. I don’t know. I am convinced the pollsters have no idea if any of their samples are accurate and cannot tell how much voter registration has been compromised, and who is even telling the truth. I am not sure the campaigns have much better idea themselves. Go vote and take a friend.

          • KellieNH

            I signed up this morning; I used a very old hotmail account. (I never give my regular email for anything) When I went to sign in to activate my account I couldn’t. So I came back a few minutes ago and just signed up with my regular email account. I was going to post a comment on Brad Smiths or whatever his name is article but them I cam across this post and here we are. Happy?

          • Swamp_Yankee

            Your right, this isn’t exactly breaking. But its still big. All the polls are coming down. Denial. Denial.

          • KellieNH

            For a group of people who are so sure their side has it in the bag you are really really defensive! I haven’t said one bad word about McCain and you want me banned from this site!

          • janis

            rushed here to comment on is no longer on the front page. Why? Because he was wrong to post that and it got taken down. As you will notice, there are many more here who think McCain/Palin are going to win than think they will lose.

            Sorry we are not curled in a fetal position, sucking our thumbs and whimpering. Most of us don’t subscribe to that behavior.

          • pwest

            You go! We’ll after last night, Erick was so pittiful, and this morning, what was Brad thinking, I’m glad to see Red State is back in fighting mode.

            Of course, PA, you were never out of it.

          • PaRep

            .

          • janis

            what you perceive as a bad poll. Where you all of you yesterday when the CBS/NYT poll was an obvious outlier?

            Oh, that’s right. Your guy was ahead by 14 points in that one. That makes it okay for you guys.

          • KellieNH

            but the fact that Obama’s even as close as he is, means bad news for McCain.

          • Finrod

            Note how the first number is ‘registered voters’. Polls of registered voters at this point in the game are all but worthless; polls of likely voters generally go a few points more favorable to Republicans and are usually closer to what happens on Election Day. (Polls of ‘adults’ are even more skewed towards Dems.)

            Given this, look at the two ‘likely voter’ models. The ‘expanded’ one has the exact same differential as the registered voters one, whereas the ‘traditional’ is 4 points more favorable to Republicans. Given the long history of likely voters being a few points more favorable to Republicans than registered voters, to my mind that says that the ‘traditional’ one is more likely to be the more accurate one.

            Sorry to burst your bubble, but these are all well-known polling facts.

          • KellieNH

            I don’t care about or trust ANY poll. I stoppped going to RCP and Pollster a long time ago. I’m just doing what I can to help Obama and thats all I can do.

          • Pentagon16

            I am going to the Mccain rally in Prince William County, VA this saturday.

            Everyone within driving distance needs to come- see his website for tickets and info..

          • LaBonBon

            I am very disappointed in this thread. Why is RedSate catering to Obama trolls? They do NOT deserve the attention and coddling they are getting. The do NOT even belong here. They come for one reason: to try and discourage us. You would NOT find me over at Obama sites trying to “turn” them.

            Special note to Kellie and Han–I am a Democrat. I come from a long line of Democrats–on both sides of my family. There hasn’t been a Republican vote cast in my family since the Wilson administration. The Democrats had a wonderful and qualified candidate and treated her like garbage. Instead, they embraced an unqualified, unaccomplished socialist empty suit with a questionable past and, at best, questionable friends/associates. Democrat tradion be damned, I will NEVER vote for such a dangerous man. I believe it was President Reagan who said: “I didn’t leave the Denocratic party, the Democratic party left me.”

          • PaRep

            Were in Pa. today as was McCain that tells you Pa. is up for grabs

          • ocleverone

            I offer not only praise for your articulate postings but my thanks for remembering what democracy is about.

          • janis

            but sometimes we are hampered by good manners and the ban on profanity here. And sometimes the moderators are just trying to have a life and don’t get the blam stick here quickly enough.

            Good luck with trying to get Han and Kellie to accept your position. Maybe you will be more successful than we have been. All I can figure is that they are young.

  • kcdude

    Could it be that voters recognize the relationship between the future of their retirement plan and a McCain win? A cut in the capital gains tax, spending cuts, no new welfare packages (the Obama tax cuts -so called), and a candidate who does not have a need to hide associations with persons and organizations of questionable character/actions may finally be resonating.

    • KellieNH

      You should continue to fight. It’s not over until November 4th and as I have said several times on here even though you all choose to ignore me: I DONT CARE ABOUT POLLS!

      • Brock

        We’ll be sure to all come together and support the new president with the same effort and attitude that the left did after 2000 and 2004.

        • Tim_Schieferecke

          They’re all weighted piles of crap. Pollsters have weighted samples that are out of kilter because many of the battleground states had battalions of Operation Chaos volunteers registered as Democrats. You could get a better idea of things by going to a tarot card reader or a shaman.

          • Pentagon16

            but before you sign up on a conservative site to school us-

            YOU MIGHT WANT TO KNOW WHAT THE @#$#@ YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.

            As in, the fact that the Gallup poll for DECADES has used a likely voter model which has the race today within two points.

            But for Obama, and for the first time- they are now doing THREE polls simultaneously with registered, likely, and now “Obama likely” voters.

            We might believe you if you didn’t reveal ignorance on a first post!

          • KellieNH

            agree with it gets taken down?! That doesn?t seem right. Is that the type of behavior we can expect for the next 4 years if McCain wins?

          • bs

            Don’t let them bother you. As long as you didn’t reregister after being banned, you’re OK.

  • PSDA

    Wrong, that is, to offer two different daily tracking poll numbers.

    One follows a tried and tested model and one reflects “the historical, amazing, and law-of-nature defying candidacy of Mr. Barack Obama.” In other words, one reflects history and facts and the other reflects conjecture and hype.

    Perhaps there should be more than two models then? Perhaps Gallup should give us yet another set of numbers that reflects conjecture about how the Bradley Effect and the VP candidacy of Sarah Palin may be skewing the poll numbers? But why stop there? Why not have yet another poll which reflects fraudulent ACORN votes, and the votes of illegals, felons, and dead people?

    Polling should be done according to what has proven to be accurate in all past elections. If some candidate defies those odds and shatters the old models, then we can talk about it afterwards, look at the hard data, and then adjust for the new findings in future polls. We shouldn’t simply have contrived polls that operate according to “special conditions” that supposedly favor one candidate.

    • Republicanuck

      Clearly Kellie has already indicated that she is young, I don’t know about Han, but I would make the point that people tend to become conservative, they aren’t necessarily born that way, and as people age they don’t usually become more liberal. I think it was Winston Churchill that said something like – in your twenties, if you are conservative it suggests you have no heart. If you are not conservative by the time you are in your forties, then you have no brain. Kellie and Han both seem bright and articulate, and I hope we can look forward to welcoming them into the GOP fold in time for Palin 2012 & 2016.

      • BlueLandRed

        it’s a national poll in a race that is decided on a state by state basis. There’s not doubt that there is a correlation between national polls numbers and what is happening at the state level.

        So when you go look at the state break downs and total up the EVs, the picture for McCain isn’t so rosy as only being down by 2%.

        I think he can still pull this out, but he’s going to have to find something the resonates with the moderates.

    • Mark_Kilmer

      On the Gallup site, in a ‘graph buried under the story of the results for Registered Voters and for Imaginary Likely Voters, the Gallup site says:

      The “traditional” likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today’s results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll’s margin of error.

      These polls strike me as vague estimates, but political pro’s need something on which to base their strategies.

      • St_Louis_Conservative

        …now than it was in 2004. Did anyone see the internals of this poll?

  • AtlasShrugged

    We’ve done EVERYTHING we can. Palin was a boost in the polls, but it wasn’t enough. Let’s REPLACE PALIN. Kay Bailey Hutchison. It’s not too late.

    Palin is too redneck for most conservatives. Hutchison will appeal to our more intelligent base and being from Texas will keep her OK with the rest.

    MCCAIN/HUTCHISON ’08!

    NOBAMA!

    • PaRep

      THAT SCARY BAD WOMEN SCARES ME TO TEARS MAKE HER GO AWAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • QueenOfCups

        She’s not drawing nearly enough crowds to the rallies.

        It’s obvious the base doesn’t like her.

        • janis

          And you are completely clueless. Run along home before they find out you escaped again.

  • KeepOhioRed

    I volunteer at the McCain HQ in my county. Tonight, the director told us McCains internal polling is +6 McCain. This is the latest data he has heard and is supposedly only a couple days old. Also, the major OH newspapers recent poll from early in the week is +2 McCain.

    The sky is not falling.

    Obama is absolutely carpet bombing us with ads, everywhere. Not much from McCain at all. Its got to be 20-1 at least, and McCain is holding up here.

    My county is mixed urban, suburban and rural. The county itself as a whole always goes blue. But we are full every night with callers who are not beat down, but optimistic.

    My view from the ground, FWIW, is McCains keeps OH narrowly, similar to Bush in 04.

  • JackLeary

    While it is true that mccain gained some ground and obama dropped, the daily election polling still shows obama with a 49%-43% lead through wednesday night. try not to get too excited.

    • Tim_Schieferecke

      Go check out World Net Daily. African Press International has her on tape admitting that Obama was adopted by his Indonesian stepfather. If the Democrats win the election, it will end up being President Biden. That’s not a comforting thought either.

      • Tim_Schieferecke

        You may have to start rooting for Joe Biden here pretty quick. That might be change you won’t be able to believe in.

  • Jack_Savage

    First, again, Obama is losing steam down the stretch. It may have been cute and trendy to say you were supporting Obama at the beginning, but now people are getting serious. The Dems in Iowa and other early states started something they could not stop, but this is not the case in the general.

    Barack Obama flat stole the Dem nomination. He won’t steal the general.

    • bigfoot

      I was gonna make this point, too. But you stole my thunder with better prose:)

      Polling this cycle cannot be trusted. Up here in MN, they have Franken in a very tight ract with Coleman. Blarney, I bet Coleman wins by 6-9 points.

  • bigfoot

    He has it tied among men. I don’t buy that for one nanosecond. That’s garbage. Rasmussen was not very good in the primaries this year.

    I don’t buy his polling. He’s been consistent, but I am still not buying his methodology with Obama.

  • lawguy9801

    I don’t buy the Virginia polls – the voters of that state did not, overnight, turn into a bunch of effeminate wuss liberals – the state’s demographics can’t have changed THAT much since ’06, when in a year with suppressed Republican turnout it took a guy who had been a Republican until 2004 to defeat George Allen by a few thousand votes…..

    But that national Gallup poll is EXTREMELY encouraging……

  • HenryM2

    I hope it’s as true as everyone else does, but one poll out of thirteen doesn’t really make me want to do jumping jacks. Let’s wait a few days and see the effect of the debate before we start trumpeting on the front page that we’re nearly tied.

  • PaRep

    .

  • janis

    As to Kellie not answering, she hasn’t really had enough time yet. I’m willing to wait.

  • fransis

    http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1595

    Check out the internals in this brand new poll from Zogby.

  • PaRep

    .

  • janis

    has been a stressful day. Did you leave any of them alive or is there just a pile of body parts? (Good boy.)

  • BizCrusader

    If you’ve watched some of the big news outlets today, ALL but Fox has basically buried McCain. I have never witnessed just blatant bias in my entire life. They will cite the most liberal polls and hardly mention polls that are showing a basic statistic tie. We can’t let the media steal the campaign for Obama. Every republican should go out of their way to show up and vote on election day. Don’t be swayed by the left media. Your vote MATTERS! This race is much closer than the media is portraying. Let the left gloat. They will get blind-sided on election day. GO MCCAIN!

  • KellieNH

    Why should we take away everything the MSM has said about her? I will do that when the MSM (Fox News) takes away what they have said about Obama.
    Anyway, you asked so here you go:
    -She has only been a Gov. for 2 years and she has already abused power
    -I am pro choice (but I am not a single issue voter)
    -She seems to have a problem telling the truth (the bridge, troopergate, etc…)
    -I actually totally disagree with you on the intelligence factor.
    -In my opinion she seems to be a divider.
    -I take offense to winks and shout outs during a debate. You are running for VP not interviewing for a position at Boom Booms Strip Club.
    I could go on but my baby just woke up!

  • bs

    and (you and) they are quite welcome, so long as postings don’t become verbatim quotes from the Obama Talking Points List or a reasonable facsimile. Over the years there have been a number of libs who have hung around and provided interesting points/counterpoints. Han (on this thread) is one of them. I don’t particularly like a lot of what he says, but he says it respectfully and without being a jerk.

    So…welcome to you, despite your woefully misguided political viewpoint. :-)

  • azaeroprof

    One-hour wonder. Must be gettin’ worried!

  • ILLINOIS_CONSERV

    When I read Obama wants to give 95% of Americans a tax break when at least 40%don’t pay any tax at all. Sounds like a welfare stipend to me.

    Plus I still find it hard to come together with a guy who sits in a church pew for 21 years and absorbs the ramblings of someone who hates all of white America. I don’t think I would be welcome to worship in the same church as BHO did with his family-for 21 years

    And I won’t go into the other countless convicts, crooks, and shady characters he feels comfortable being associated with.

    McCain has a long record of working with Dems while in the Senate. Obama has no Senate record-period.

  • flyerhawk

    What this polls means. I don’t really buy into polls in specifically but I think trending and aggregates are pretty good indicators.

    Gallup just started releasing these new polls in the past week. They may be accurate, but it is hard to say since they are outside the mean of the other reputable polls and have no track record. Had this poll been around 3 weeks ago and showed McCain gaining ground that would be one thing. But a new poll with new methodologies means very little.

  • janis

    for months now. She didn’t just fall out of the sky. She’s actually someone who many of us wanted for VP, just didn’t think we’d get her. The other one we liked was Bobby Jindal of Louisiana.

    As to your desire to believe what the MSM has said about Gov. Palin, that’s your choice. From our point of view, they saw how enthused we were about her when McCain announced her as his choice and they started savaging her and her family immediately. Do you agree with that behavior? Do you approve of them using her children as targets? Did they treat Obama’s children that way? Of course not.

    If the MSM had been as furiously nosy about Obama’s career and past as they have been about Palin, we wouldn’t have objected nearly as much, but that has not been the case at all. The fact that you only object to what Fox has said about Obama is telling–you think that because only Fox has said it, then it must not be true. The fact is that the same information–and much more–is out there and easily found, yet the MSM is not interested. Why is that, do you think?

    As to the comment about Palin being a divider, what do you think Obama is? He claims to be able to bring unity, but where is your party these days? A third of them won’t have anything to do with Obama. He is the one who is so quick to yell “racism!!!” whenever he is criticized and that surely doesn’t have a thing to do with unity, it only alienates many who are offended that honest criticism is met with such a contemptible charge. So he’s a uniter? Think about it. There are not hundreds of thousands of conservatives who have set up websites and PAC’s to support Obama–yet there are many of them from your side who are voting for and supporting McCain.

    There is much more, but that’s just for starters. Enjoy your baby while he/she is at the cuddle stage. They grow up so fast!

  • Darcy

    However, in a sense this is a long way from one poll out of thirteen: other polls have actually had pretty similar results recently. The Gallup poll that now has McCain down 2 and within the margin of error, previously had him down, so this is not a huge shift there. Rasmussen has McCain down 4. IBD/TIPP has him down 3. Of course, some of the other pollsters have had significantly different results, much more positive for Obama, but the point is that this Gallup poll isn’t just coming out of the blue. Although there are widely varying poll results out there (probably indicating that some people’s methodologies are way off), there is evidence beyond just this Gallup poll that the race is tightening, and may be quite close at this point.

  • Darcy

    Sorry, meant to say that this Gallup poll previously had McCain down just 4–left out the number there.

  • St_Louis_Conservative

    …..suddenly believe this poll? I’m not saying it isn’t good news, it definitely is.

    Did anyone look at the internals? What was the partisan ID gap? Michael Barone (who I trust unflinchingly) thinks an 8-9 pt gap is not unreasonable, he doesn’t say that’s what it should be, but it is within the realm of possibility.

  • HenryM2

    I think all of these bear close watching, obviously. But when we cherry pick one poll and trumpet it as the one that proves we’re tied, we’re setting ourselves up for disappointment.

    Polls have questionable methodology, polls swing, there’s a margin of error… so if we say Gallup -2 is proof of something great and it’s -5 tomorrow, what are we doing to our enthusiasm?

    There’s no faster way to break someone’s spirit than to give them hope and dash it continually.

    Head down, committed and steady, check out the polls and keep working.

  • gopraines

    Hello Red State America, “We Can Still Win!” God Bless us! McCain was great last night he finally went after that demon from the pits of the hate America crowd. I have already voted in Colorado for that great patriot, John McCain and the hockey mom we all love, Sarah Palin. The polls have never been more flawed, skewed and just plain fraudulent this year than any other year. Ignore everything and just go vote!

  • ocleverone

    I have about a dozen friends that are making the trip from Hanover and Caroline Counties.

    I think it will be a good turn out.

  • Clockwork

    I’m a straight-up liberal, and I have to tell you guys, I was more worried about a McCain comeback a week ago than I am now.

    Or what I mean is, on the whole, McCain has had better days and he’s had them recently. He had a nice kick upwards on the RCP index about ten or eleven days ago that I don’t remember hearing much talk about.

    So why all the talk now? Genuinely curious.

  • Ed54

    Tomorrow will be telling, because the last debate will start to be reflected in the tracking polls. Rasmussen is the only one I watch. Ras has been very steady and consistent, without wild swings. McCain is down 4 in today’s Rasmussen poll. If it drops to 3 down tomorrow, that will be a very strong indicator that McCain’s economic arguments hit home and we can expect further tightening. If it bumps back up to 5 down, then McCain hurt himself in the last debate and may have missed his last serious chance to reverse the trend.

  • OccamsRazor

    I’d enjoy being ahead in the polls next week. How ’bout it, eh?

  • OccamsRazor

    ‘is for lovers’ of freedom.

  • Lysander

    Keep us informed on how many people show up to that rally and other Virginia ones as well. If you could offcourse.

  • Jaded

    would tighten up because the pollsters want to get paid the next time around and we knew the other polls were oversampled and we knew this country would never elect someone as socialist as Barack Obama….Nov 5th there will be some truly upset leftist and the their handlers the media because as I said earlier the same “stupid” Americans who voted for George W Bush in 04 against everything the media wing of the Democrat party and the Democrat party lied and said……so WE still do not believe the pollsters WE believe what we know in our souls.

  • Hammer2008

    I’d look at Rasmussen’s within the given battleground states. The nationwide poll is ambiguous and drives media headlines, even Drudge’s.

  • antisocial

    If you look at any political polls in any country you will see liberals lead. Any media in any non-socialist / non-marxist / non-dictatorship has a big liberal bias. That’s the reason we see actual voting bucks the trend. Most independent / conservative people have a tendency to not come up with their views openly. I’ll give an example… In my office my conservative views are made fun of by my friends. I can’t possibly work in my office if I start arguing with everybody.

    I wonder what the leftist media and pollsters will do when they lose the freedom that they misuse so much to propagate the liberal and socialist agenda.

    I am sure we will see conservatives buck the trends… If we don’t we will need to get used to Socialist America.

  • JoeG

    Pollsters don’t want to admit it, but I suspect they have no clue what to expect.

    There are millions of “new” democrats – new in the sense that there are lots of new registered voters.

    But the question is, what category do they fit in:

    Really signed up to vote for THE ONE.

    Fraudulent: Some will vote, but I suspect most ACORN voters won’t show up since they are only forged so the individual canvaser can get the paycheck.

    “Yeah, I sign up if you get off my porch/let me out of the store/go away/go on a date with me.” Maybe this will be one of the lowest turnout elections ever for this reason.

    Operation chaos. I know multiple members who haven’t re-registered since they won’t need to yet. This could be huge in Penn.

    I don’t know how any of the pollsters can weight each category. I’m sure there are more new dems than Republicans, but how many will vote?

  • David_Hinz

    but Han is hopeless. Oh, that is not to say that he is not respectful, but he is too old to change.

  • jonreagan

    and both well hidden in the MSM. I first heard the Gallup numbers (49-47%) reported by Larry Kudlow on CNBC, and later on FOX. Earlier, Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll show a continued narrowing of the gap, with a 50-46% spread….given it’s closeness to the Gallup numbers, it’s pretty clear that this is about a 3 point race. Were Obama trailing, the media would remind us that the results were “within the margin of error”

    Just for grins–or to aggravate myself–I listened to CNN for a couple of hours. Hard to do, given that it was idiot Anderson Cooper’s time slot. He babbled on about the race, but made no mention of any poll numbers.

    Bottom line, CNN, MSNBC, et al. won’t report either the big story–the tightening of the polls–or even the individual numbers as they become available. But CNN did have John King with his little map/chalkboard, trying to tell us that a McCain victory is increasingly impossible. As Hannity says, 2008 will go down as the year that journalism died in America.

  • jonreagan

    and both well hidden in the MSM. I first heard the Gallup numbers (49-47%) reported by Larry Kudlow on CNBC, and later on FOX. Earlier, Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll show a continued narrowing of the gap, with a 50-46% spread….given it’s closeness to the Gallup numbers, it’s pretty clear that this is about a 3 point race. Were Obama trailing, the media would remind us that the results were “within the margin of error”

    Just for grins–or to aggravate myself–I listened to CNN for a couple of hours. Hard to do, given that it was idiot Anderson Cooper’s time slot. He babbled on about the race, but made no mention of any poll numbers.

    Bottom line, CNN, MSNBC, et al. won’t report either the big story–the tightening of the polls–or even the individual numbers as they become available. But CNN did have John King with his little map/chalkboard, trying to tell us that a McCain victory is increasingly impossible. As Hannity says, 2008 will go down as the year that journalism died in America.

  • jonreagan

    and both well hidden in the MSM. I first heard the Gallup numbers (49-47%) reported by Larry Kudlow on CNBC, and later on FOX. Earlier, Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll show a continued narrowing of the gap, with a 50-46% spread….given it’s closeness to the Gallup numbers, it’s pretty clear that this is about a 3 point race. Were Obama trailing, the media would remind us that the results were “within the margin of error”

    Just for grins–or to aggravate myself–I listened to CNN for a couple of hours. Hard to do, given that it was idiot Anderson Cooper’s time slot. He babbled on about the race, but made no mention of any poll numbers.

    Bottom line, CNN, MSNBC, et al. won’t report either the big story–the tightening of the polls–or even the individual numbers as they become available. But CNN did have John King with his little map/chalkboard, trying to tell us that a McCain victory is increasingly impossible. As Hannity says, 2008 will go down as the year that journalism died in America.

  • St_Louis_Conservative

    Where is the RNC? Was that story about them keeping their powder dry until the final weeks bunk? Isn’t the NRA supposed to unload a bunch of ads soon too? Where are they!!

  • MMan

    Long time no see! I always like reading your stuff.

  • Rod_Patrick

    Every candidate has a baggage. Somehow, I thank the media for telling us everything about Sarah. But we must be careful that we don’t buy their biased analysis. Always check for the journalists’ political affiliation to see where he/she is coming from.

    To be safe, we must do it on our own and decide it for ourselves. Get both sides of the stories.

    Unfortunately, the media has not yet made the same effort in vetting Barack Obama. All the questions from Barack Obama did not come from the media. They come from concerned citizens and groups. Because of this, the Obama camp and the media blames us for being so “negative” about Obama. I think this is unfair.

    But you need to go back to Chicago way back 1990s and see for yourself who Barack Obama really is. Check out this site:

    www.discoverthenetworks.org

    Although the site is “anti-terrorist” and “anti-socialism”, it provides vital information for us to make “intelligent questions” regarding Obama. The site, however, accepts comments and corrections.

    Another:

    http://www.theobamafile.com/

    Again, check out for yourself. Please feel free to ask questions from us if you think it won’t damage the fairness of your inquiry.

    Pay attention to the third parties working to elect Obama. That’s the link. See what are the specific information that the Obama Campaign is trying to withhold from the public.

    Make your own investigation. It would be unwise for us if we vote for Obama without really assessing the character and the real (or the lack of) accomplishments by Barack Obama. You know, promises and platforms themselves are very unreliable to hold on.

  • MMan

    Thats not the point of this kind of troll at all. This is the equivalent of sticking ones tongue out at an adult.

    Now a TRUE quality troll puts more thought into it. S/he breathlessly hypes fantasies that would change the election overnight-like if Obama was found to not be constitutionally qualified to be President. This person just revels in hanging around making others on the site look silly.

    Still, you gotta admire the style and nerve…I mean, if you ever found anything like that…

  • JackLeary

    you cant seriously be that ignorant. lets go down the check-list of the constitutional qualifications. presidential candidates must:
    A) Be at least 35 years old.
    Obama: Check(47)/McCain: Double-Check(72) (seriously)
    B) Be a permanent resident for at least 14 years
    Obama: Check McCain: Check
    C) Be a natural born U.S. citizen
    Obama: Check (Honolulu, Hawaii) McCain: Check? (Panama Canal Zone, Panama) I’m fully aware that the Canal zone was under the umbrella of U.S. occupation when said birth occured, much like an American embassy is actually considered part of America, but if there was any dispute about who is and who is not a naturalized citizen, it’s McCain who was born in another country, technically. Get off Fox News and trying doing some research before making claims like this.

  • bigfoot

    Kellie, please! Coming together accomplishes one thing in Washington. Caving into the liberals.

    I’ve had enough coming together on the part of republicans. I want them to have strength and honor. I want them to represent the very people who actually voted for them. And not the liberals.

  • bigfoot

    Kellie, why do so many liberal women despise Gov. Palin? Is it that she’s accomplished a great deal while also having a family, being a devoted mother, a devoted wife, a devoted resident of her state, a patriot, a son in the military, a hunter, a baby loving conservative.

    I think Palin is despised by liberal women because they are jealous. Gov. Palin has accomplished everything through her own initiative.

    She’s not a member of the old bats at NOW, and that drives you libfems crazy!

  • bigfoot

    :)