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BREAKING: AP Poll shows Obama and McCain Basically Tied

Obama just up by one after the third debate

By: streetwise (Diary)  |  October 22nd, 2008 at 01:30 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

This basically speaks for itself

WASHINGTON (AP) – The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

It ain’t over until it’s over!

ht Drudge

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  • janis

    will be saying after Biden’s remarks on us getting “tested” should The One be elected.

    If Joe the Plumber had a big impact, Joe the Dumber ought to REALLY leave a crater.

  • Jaded

    FOX was making excuses like they need to recheck the numbers because it’s a new polling unit they are using and a whole lot of bs…..I laughed so hard the people next me looked at me.

    Remember the 14 point poll in Obama’s advantage last week? everyone said “oh that’s an outlyer” but no one had to RECHECK the results….hilarious!

  • DavidSage

    Although I’m disheartened by where this race is currently, this election will be close no matter who wins.

    These polls that show Obama up by 10 points are absurd. If Obama does win, my guess is it will be by a 1% margin in the popular vote. It’s not going to be some Reagan/Nixon type landslide. A Democrat presidential candidate hasn’t gotten over 50% in the popular vote in 30 years, and the electoral college favors Republicans.

    My fear is that so many on our side will think it’s over, don’t bother to volunteer and get out the vote, and the election is a lot closer than we had thought. A motivated base could have pushed us over the top in a very tight election.

    If you live in one of the hotly contested swing states, or know someone who does, make sure to put all your effort into this until the votes are actually counted. Don’t let the MSM decide this race before election day.

  • Jaded
  • ILLINOIS_CONSERV

    It is their intent to discourage the Repub base. They know it is going to be extremely close. The one advanatge the conservative/repub base has always had is we vote! WE VOTE.

  • streetwise

    Reading her memoirs provided huge insight into the dynamics of polls.

    She noted that using late-breaking polls that suggested a surge was a favorite tactic of the Liberals (now Liberal Democrats). Of course, those polls were nothingburgers and she kept her place in Downing Street.

    This one’s for you, Maggie!

    • redalert

      Look,it’s time to explain how they take polls. Most of these polls that show Obama in the lead consist of asking 600 people TOTAL in the ENTIRE country what they think ! Do the math. That means that on average,they are asking about 12 people per state what they think. This is ridiculous. The reason the AP poll is more reflective of what is happening is that they polled about 1100 people. More important than that,over 800 of these were adults. Also important they called people’s cellphones. Lots of people use only cellphones. Other polls that don’t use polling data from cellphones is often skewed. So this is a very good poll. Even so it’s only 1100 so don’t pay attention to what a tiny number of people think. Get out and vote. The media wants people to get discouraged and not vote for McCain. Vote for McCain and send Barry back to Chicago. The Old Man is going to do it ! McCain will win.

  • Tamblin

    (sorry I didn’t notice this one first)

    Singular poll results are pretty much useless. If you want to understand the state of the race you need to, at a minimum, look at the trends in the poll over time. Much better is to look at an aggregate collection of polls so you have a much broader base of data from which to recognize outliers and to also avergae out house effects. For example yesterday on the same day that Battleground showed obama +1 nationally (which was trumpeted here a lot) Pew had Obama +14 nationally (not mentioned as I saw, an example of confirmation bias). Both are likely outliers, given the large number of polls that show up in the 4-9 range, You can see a list of all the polls that came out that day here:

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1021.html

    • Next93

      As far as I can tell, the only people who’ve even HEARD about those comments are us “true beleivers”.

      After the way the media has been acting for the last 7 years (trumpeting the wiretaps, rendition, etc), I was sure that they simply could no longer understand the concept of a state secret, but after the last 48 hours, that opinion has changed.

      Either they’re intentionally keeping this a secret, or they think that Biden’s beleif in an international crisis in the next 6 months isn’t “fit to print”.

  • PaRep

    aren’t even registered to vote!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    WHY IN GOD’S NAME WOULD YOU INTERVIEW PEOPLE WHO CAN’T VOTE

    NEXT !!!

    OH how shocking a 1 day wonder again

  • bs

    If you look at the RCP site, you’ll see that out of the 14 different polls listed, there are only 3 that show a gap of less than 5 points between The Obamunist and McCain.

    Are they wrong? Is the AP poll the accurate one? Maybe. But we shouldn’t be bashing one outlier poll (I believe it was the CBS poll a couple of weeks ago) when it shows an outrageous gap and not question one that is equally out of sync with the rest (the AP poll). I understand the need for optimism, but let’s try to temper it with a bit of realism.

    I think the generally accepted “the polls are not reflecting reality” is a more reality-based attitude right now than “Hey, we’re tied!” Because personally, I doubt we’re tied. There are currently three different polls in RCP that show a double digit lead for the enemy.

  • PaRep

    together, UMMMM How about IBD/TIPP & Battleground Poll ??? (crickets)

    two most accurate in 2004

    • GatesofVienna

      Based on what I see in my home ground of the Tampa/I-4 corridor, the ground swell for McCain is growing. Yard signs and bumper stickers are increasing: obviously Zogby is not worried about my competition, but I have several areas that I consistently watch for change. The thing that has struck me is that the McCain signage has grown even during the bleak days when every poll result was dismal – it’s apparent that morale isn’t affected. In fact, I’m beginning to suspect that the “O”‘s hubris over his ‘sure’ win is having a motivating impact.

  • dld1717

    McCain seems to be up in OH and FL

    NC seems be tossup

    VA and CO bit behind

    State polls matter more and they tend to be delayed following nat’l polls though.

  • LatinosforMcCain

    We can still win don’t quit we will surprise the Pundits, News, MSM, and all those that was on obama tank. I know we can win let us all get together and vote for McCAIN. Residents from OH, PA, FL, MO, VA, NV, NM, NH get out to vote bring in Three to Five friends, family member everyone and let go out and elect McCain. Don’t quit we will rise!!!McCain will deliever. VOTE VOTE VOTE for McCAIN.

  • thevertman

    The internals on this poll also reveal that among TOTAL RESPONDENTS Obama was ahead 47 to 37. A 10 point lead.

    Don’t believe me?
    http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfKPoll3ToplineFINAL.pdf

    There’s your proof. ‘Likely Voters’ had the 1 point spread. Take it for what you will but that’s what the poll says.

  • Tim_Schieferecke

    That beer is going to taste great! Obama is a house of cards. He has no substance. He was created by the media, but they’re out of lightning bolts to shock him back to life. He is Frankenmedia. He’ll soon be electorally finished. Mu Ha Ha Ha, Mu Ha Ha Ha!

  • Han_Pritcher

    And if I were to respond to your post in the same spirit with which you wrote it, I would shortly be banned. And I would have earned it.

    The most I will say, and only because I’ve been called out, is that I’ve seen certain posters here at RedState attack certain pollsters for their biases right up until that same pollster produces results that poster likes. Then that pollster is awesome. Likewise, I’ve seen pollsters (like Survey USA and Rasmussen) regarded quite highly until they started to provide results that certain posters did not like.

    Cherry-picking outliers is a fools-errand. There is a reason why they are called outliers. Zogby was great until a few days ago when he showed things moving away from McCain. Rasmussen was great until it showed things moving away from McCain. Gallup sucked until they started releasing multiple voter-models every day, then Gallup was great because the “traditional model” showed McCain down only by two. Now that the gap is larger according to the very same poll (and same model), nobody talks about it, or if they do they ignore the fact that they were just talking up that voter model a few days ago.

    Tim, I assure you that I will honor my word regarding our friendly little wager. I don’t expect to have to, however. Frankly, I think I gave you better odds than I should have.