This basically speaks for itself

WASHINGTON (AP) – The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

It ain’t over until it’s over!

ht Drudge

The silly season is here again. Polls are being touted as the infallible indicator of the actual electoral outcome. I think not.

Now Obama could very well win. The fall financial crisis was a godsend to The One. But the race is surprisingly tight, and the infamous month of October is not done.

Let’s take a look at some other poll predictions,

Poll: Advantage Kerry in Ohio Race
This story, dated 19-Oct-2004 put Kerry over Bush 50 to 47 in the critical swing state. Actual outcome: Bush 51 Kerry 49. Understated Bush by 4.

More updates as the spirit moves me

And in late October 2000, CNN reported that CNN/Time poll: Bush holds edge Bush was leading Gore by 6 points. As we know, the election was virtually tied, with the final outcome showing Gore up by about a half percentage point. (The poll probably does not reflect the impact of the enormously damaging “drunk driving” story, skillfully sprung by a Democratic operative in the last week of the campaign.)

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Everyone knows by now that Joe the Plumber asked the most sizzling question of the 2008 campaign- how will Obama’s tax policy affect small business? This question was infinitely better than anything asked in any of the debates, their high priced moderators notwithstanding.

Predictably, the MSM and lefty blogs, suspecting lèse majesté, went after him and all of a sudden it was Trash Joe Week.

Now I hate to pile on, but Joe is an ingrate. Why? BARACK OBAMA IS TRYING TO SAVE JOE MONEY! Small businesses are basically valued on their free cash flow, while the ability to grow a small business is very dependent on the ability to plow earnings back into the business. A tax hike would most likely reduce the price of any business Joe wants to buy, * because it’s worth less.* Its after-tax cash flows will be smaller, and reinvestment of such flows will also have a lower return. Of course, ever since the Democratic fiefdoms of Fannie/Freddie did such a number on the credit markets, the other way that small businesses raise capital- bank loans- will be very problematic for a long time.

That Joe has a nerve, I tell you! And you can find out more about his appearance on the Huckabee show here

1. As one of America’s most respected generals, you were instrumental in torpedoing the Clinton Administration’s gays-in-the-military policy? What is Obama’s position on this subject?

2. As one of America’s most respected generals, how do you feel about the far left’s assault on our military forces, and their support for Obama?

3. As one of America’s more mediocre Secretaries of State, how do you feel about your sales job on the Iraq war? Did you lie?

4. As one of America’s more mediocre Secretaries of State, why were you unable to persuade key allies to join us in Iraq?

5. As one of America’s more mediocre Secretaries of State, what do you say now to the members of the coalition of the willing who did join us? Many of those governments paid a heavy political price for listening to you.

6. As one of America’s more mediocre Secretaries of State, how do you explain the complete lack of progress on a host of festering issues during your tenure: Iran, N. Korea, the Israel-Palestinian conflict, the aggressiveness of China and Russia. (You get credit for handling the plane incident in 2001).

7. Other than #3, it is hard to think of high profile diplomatic ventures during your tenure. You were among the less-traveled Secretaries of State. Why?

8. As an elder statesman, you were silent on the Plame affair, which originated in your office and did tremendous damage to the reputation of the Bush Administration. Why? And how do you sleep at night?

9. As an elder statesman and respected ex-general, you were basically inert on the most important military operation in Iraq other than the invasion itself. Why?

10. Obama was wrong on the surge. What does that tell you about his leadership and judgement skills?

11. Do you really think that Sarah Palin is less qualified for executive office than Barack Obama? Why?

12. Should we take your endorsement at face value, or given the tremendous gulf between your active career and the positions now espoused by Obama, should we chalk it up to the temptation of an elder statesman, perhaps more conscious now of mortality and a changing tide in politics, to remain perennially in the public spotlight, bathed in the radiant grace of The One?
    In other words, does Talleyrand have a disciple?

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Drudge is reporting that the two are in a statistical heat: 49 to 47 favor Obama.

GALLUP’s ‘traditional’ likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll’s margin of error… Developing…

Who knew that the recent investigations of ACORN would push the Obama percentage towards McCain’s so soon!

When I find a link, I will post

Update: RCP link:

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Sagamore Hill, Oyster Bay – Home of John McCain’s hero, Teddy Roosevelt

Contrary to popular opinion, John McCain does not need to score a so-called knockout tonight. He simply needs to be on message, and passionately so: Barack Obama is an unqualified tax-and-spender, who has displayed incredibly bad judgment in his associations, which range from the hard left to the corrupt. He has no experience in foreign policy and zero credibility as Commander-In-Chief. And the Democratic Party is up to its eyeballs in responsibility for the Fannie/Freddie meltdown.

The debate takes place at Hofstra University. located in Hempstead, Long Island. Hofstra is a quality local school. It has a disproportionately large population of commuting students, many of whom work, and are thus more connected to the real world than the scions of the elites at the Ivy League schools.

I grew up on Long Island, and visit every year. It has a gorgeous endowment of coastlines, from the bays and inlets of its northern shore fronting Long Island Sound to its superb beaches on its South Shore where the Atlantic rules. The North Shore contains the fabled Gold Coast, a land of estates and old money, plus aspiring new money. It is the setting of the classic novel “The Great Gatsby”. John McCain’s hero, Teddy Roosevelt, hailed from Oyster Bay on the North Shore, and if you are ever there, visit the Sagamore Hill National Historic Park. It’s a wonderful place to visit, and take your kids.

Long Island’s political complexion is changing. When I grew up, the congressional districts encompassing Nassau and Suffolk counties were dominated by middle-of-the-road Republicans. Local government in Nassau County was a GOP stronghold, and the Republicans had a real life political patronage machine there.

Human nature being what it is, the GOP machine became enmeshed in corruption, and the voters cleaned house. Democrats have become increasingly successful in local and Congressional races. The GOP is increasingly perceived as too Southern and too evangelical. Jews are a reliably Democratic voting block, while Catholics are the swing vote.

The Island is prettily suburban, but drowning in traffic. Being an island, the only way off is by bridge or ferry. Taking one of the bridges – Whitestone, Throgs Neck, George Washington, Verazzano- requires a very hefty toll. The Long Island Railroad is pretty much a necessity for people working in The City, as Manhattan is always called. .

I don’t know who the winner of the debate will be, but the losers will surely be the attendees stuck in this evening’s gigantic traffic jam on Hempstead Turnpike and Meadowbrook Parkway!

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First, the bad news. It is entirely possible that Barack Obama will be elected president of the United States (and there is a silver lining even in that).

And now the good news. Obama’s advantage in the polls is relatively small and easily reversible given the general volatility of public opinion and the particular ambivalence of the public with respect to Obama personally.

The polls said it was a tight race!

Massive swings in voter sentiment can occur in just a few days. Carter and Reagan were tied in the polls just a few days before the Reagan landslide. Bob Dole was supposed to be headed for a double-digit thumping, but lost by 9. We were also supposed to lose the House majority in 1996. GWB had a decent lead in the polls until the game-changing (and dirty trick) drunk driving story. Hell, John Kerry thought he was elected president based on polls taken ELECTION DAY.

We all have our favorite incidents about how polls can be skewed against the GOP through news stories that are framed to damage the Republican case. Never forget that the only poll that counts is taken on election day. Polls are only a lagging indicator of reaction to events. And events, from Wall Street to Waziristan, can move with lightning speed.

So let’s get back to work! (And savor the sex scandal that has erupted Mark Foley’s old district.)

While Hollywood is undoubtedly pro-Obama, we can take cheer in the fact that it has already produced an extremely useful film for our efforts to understand the Obama phenomenon. That would be the vastly entertaining musical Chicago.

Here’s Billy Flynn, patron saint of all Chicago lawyers, giving a demo on how to turn a really bad case into solid gold! And even Ayers’ smoking gun becomes “so understandable, comprehensible, defensible”.

h/t Drudge

It does look like all that Annenberg money that Barack Obama and his pal William Ayers spent might have been diverted to, um, weapons of @$$ destruction.

CBS Chicago reports on a scandal that has broken out involving physical abuse at Chicago pulic schools.

CHICAGO (CBS) ? CBS 2 Investigator Dave Savini exposed illegal corporal punishment in public schools, and the report is getting results that will help prevent children in our schools from being beaten.
The 2 Investigators uncovered the story about athletes beaten at Chicago’s prestigious Simeon Career Academy. Now more big name schools are under fire as more students come forward to report abuse.

The full story can be accessed here.

Stories like this make one question more and more just what the hell Team Obama accomplished in Chicago.

And, as the libs would say about Gitmo- “CLOSE THE SCHOOLS-STOP THE TORTURE!”

France has a longstanding tradition of realism in foreign policy, as well as an unapologetic resolve to protect her national interests. Both were on display recently as French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner visited Israel and succinctly warned that Israel will hit Iranian nuclear sites before Iran can finish its race to build nuclear weapons.

“First, because you will hit them before. And this is the danger. Israel has always said it will not wait for the bomb to be ready. I think that (the Iranians) know. Everyone knows.”

Well, everyone but Barack Obama, whose foolish talk of dialogue with Ahmadinejad without preconditions may well have been a catalyst in Israel’s perception that the Iranian bomb is an existential threat to its existence and that the American alliance would be unreliable in the face of an Obama presidency.

Great job, Senator.

But The One does not limit Himself to negligent pronouncements on just one foreign policy topic. He continues to persist in his astonishing conviction that we can just go in and invade Pakistan in order to take out Bin Laden. No doubt his extensive military experience gives him the credibility to make such an assertion. He also criticizes the Bush Administration’s policy on former Pakistani strongman Musharraf.

Trouble is, Senator, you just don’t seem to have much in the way of situation awareness re the facts on the ground there, so here’s some help:

1. Pakistan is a nuclear power. You, uh, just don’t nonchalantly invade the territory of nuclear powers. Earlier this decade, there was a real prospect of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan. Tony Blair labored mightily to defuse the situation, which is not widely remembered now.

2. Pakistan is a very divided country with a huge Islamic radical contingent. A peremptory U.S attack would inflame that situation terribly, further destabilizing the government.

3. Musharraf WAS the indispensable man earlier this decade. With democracy under assault in Pakistan because of mind-boggling corruption, the growing Islamofascist threat and the ever-present conflict with India, the emergence of a strongman was probably inevitable. And we were lucky with this strongman. It took enormous courage for him to side with the US against the Taliban, previously a Pakistani client. A friendly face in Islamabad didn’t hurt the effort to expose the AQ Khan nuclear proliferation network, one of the most important strategic successes of the Bush Administration.

4. Uh, Senator, notwithstanding the usefulness of Musharraf, the Bush Administration did push for a restoration of democracy in Pakistan, opting for long-term stability over short-term expediency. This is the effort that you risk flushing down the toilet – see point #1.

True, these facts might get in the way of your cool, glib posturing. But that’s what an election is all about.

The Pakistan section of this blog was originally posted on The Minority Report.

The VP debate turned into the ultimate victory of strategy over tactics. And Sarah Palin was the one with the strategy. She has mastered the art of deflecting loaded questions while giving substantive answers. She effectively hammered home the differences between McCain and Obama, never more so than when she highlighted the differences between Obama and Biden before Joe was selected by The One.

Biden’s tactics consisted of portraying Obama/Biden as champions of the middle class and trashing McCain as the reincarnation of Bush/Cheney. But the elegantly attired, tanned Biden looked like the Washington superlawyer and insider that he is- absolutely unconvincing as a defender of middle America. And he bored people to death with DC Inside Baseball, bloviating about how McCain is not the maverick he clearly is and about his votes from yesteryear about which the audience knew nothing and cared less.

The end game: Sarah looked qualified to be VP, and Biden reinforced the point that Obama’s leftwards pandering and lack of experience is the Achilles Heel of the Democratic ticket.

Sarah Palin has set up John McCain for a comeback. You GO, girl!

And it’s now up to The Maverick to deliver one.

A mythology has grown up about presidential debates that needs to be debunked. Nixon didn’t lose the 1960 election because of a five o’clock shadow. Reagan didn’t nail 1980 with “there you go again”. Al Gore didn’t blow 2000 by treading on GWB’s space or showing up with the orange glop makeup.

Debates are about impressions and revelations about the personae. Thus, they are important, but only as one more indicator of that complex interplay between personalities and issues which actually determines the outcome. Polls had Carter and Reagan neck-and-neck long after their famous debate. Only in the last few days was there a decisive movement to Reagan- the electorate’s gut reaction to the prospect of four more years of Carter’s leadership, killer rabbits, Iran, hostages, stagflation and all the rest. The other two elections remained close because the respective VP’s represented highly popular administrations which were nonetheless in considerable difficulty, so there was some momentum for the challengers.

John McCain performed well. He displayed much greater command of facts than Obama. He spoke with energy and passion, thus putting an end to the Age Thing. He looked more of a scrapper than the glib and cool Obama, and everyone knows the next president will have some fighting to do. McCain effectively dispatched the meme that he is Bush’s third term.

At times, Obama did well on debating points, just like Nixon. Here, bias inevitably clouds analysis. The MSM is running with the theme that Obama won because foreign policy is McCain’s strong suit and McCain didn’t knock him out. The latter is true. But the debate was not really about foreign policy, it was about WAR, especially as Obama insisted on framing everything in terms of Iraq. So despite the debating points, the discussion most likely focused voter attention on the next president as Commander-In-Chief, and there is no way that Obama will EVER win that one.

Moreover, the economy hovered over the debate like Marley’s ghost over Scrooge’s bowl of gruel. It is supposed to be the Dems’ strong suit, especially this year, and Obama didn’t come close to knocking McCain out when the economic questions were asked. Not at all. And when the next debate takes place, which IS supposed to be on the economy, the bailout will have either passed or failed, liberating McCain to focus on the causes of the mortgage debacle. Where he will be free to go into which candidate was in bed with a convicted real estate felon, and which party made Fannie Mae into its own fiefdom!

h/t Drudge

Apparently the hackers couldn’t abide O’Reilly’s criticism of Wikileaks and assorted pundits who were spreading the fairy tales about Sarah Palin:

On Friday, Wikileaks issued the following press release :
“Fox News demagogue, Bill O’Reilly, has been hacked and the details passed to Wikileaks. Wikileaks has been informed the hack was a response to the pundit’s scurrilous attacks over the Sarah Palin’s email story–including on Wikileaks and other members of the press, Hacktivists, thumbing their noses at the pundit, took control of O’Reilly’s main site, BillOReilly.com. According to our source, the security protecting O’Reilly’s site and subscribers was “non-existent

O’Reilly’s site reports:

** 205 new Premium Members who signed up last week had their name, hometown, email address, & BillOReilly.com password stolen

Access full story here.

Have a barf bag handy.

In honor of the left’s attempt to get Sarah Palin via her family, a song celebrating her triumph. It didn’t work guys! It might be fun to invent our own lyrics in celebration of the left’s class and sophistication! “…. And Johnny came baaaaack to me!”

Oh, and GREAT move, libs!

Both House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senator John Kerry (though his wife) have reported substantial holdings in AIG in their recent financial disclosure forms:

Pelosi, in her most recent financial disclosure form, reported that her husband owned between $250,000 and $500,000 of stock in AIG, which ceded majority control to the U.S. government this week in exchange for $85 billion of loans. …
Kerry, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, disclosed that his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, had more than $2 million of AIG stock at the end of 2007, when shares were worth $58.30

Fifty-six Senators and Congressmen have holdings in the entities that failed or were bailed out in 2008.

Of course, some are Republicans. But the prominent Democratic names do suggest that the purifying influences of The One may be taking a long time to work their magic.

See full article on Bloomberg.

While Messrs.Foley and Hinz ponder the fate of the nation in between floor shows, the TMR staff toils dutifully and unresentfully. We are running with an exclusive video of their trip on the new charter airline founded by Bill Clinton, which will be the prototype of any airline bailout once President John McCain reaches across the aisle to fix another ailing industry.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTDZzCyxstQ

Update: we have cancelled today’s scheduled webcast by Steve Foley on contrasting modalities of Greek vs Roman governance. He has a late-breaking conflicting engagement at Caesar’s Palace.

Second update: a rumor has surfaced on the net that one of them appears in the final segment of the video. We are hacking into all their emails, cell conversations, etc. to find out. Stay tuned!

Obviously, I’m kidding. But you get the idea. In the end, the phenomenon behind the real estate bust is human nature – alternately fearful, greedy, imprudent or insanely optimistic.

A few years ago I made my first trip back to my New York roots in some years, and visited colleagues on Wall Street. The buzz was about the hot condo market, and especially about one where the properties had been flipped multiple times. The CONDO DEVELOPMENT HAD NOT BEEN BUILT YET.

This kind of opened my eyes to the real estate phenomenon. And then I read about repeated instances of the same thing in California, Arizona, Florida and other places. Now c’mon, movers and shakers of the NY-DC power corridor! Are you guys all illiterate? The evidence was accumulating before your eyes for years. And a special raspberry to guys like Barney Frank, who egged on Democratic protectorates such as Fannie Mae to manufacture more and more paper.
Who the hell do you think you’re kidding?

Free markets generate excesses, which the markets correct. Always have, always will. A prudent government act to prevent panic and ensure that the appropriate people take their hits, while the markets mark down assets in an orderly, panic-free manner.

This is what Bernanke and Paulson have been doing. Perfectly? Of course not. But nothing is perfect. And I say more power to them and thanks for doing a very, very difficult job.

Have you noticed the increased whining coming out of the Obama camp? The meme is that the crafty McCain is responsible for Obama’s difficulty by putting unfair ads on the air and pandering to women by an unqualified female pick for VP.

Ah, my dear Obamatrons. The problem is not in your stars, but in yourselves. And your STAR. No presidential election is a cakewalk. If you thought Obama was a shoo-in, you forgot how seriously Americans take a presidential election, and especially during times when foreign threats are an issue.

As for your star, his series has been running for nearly two years – same plot lines, same rhetorical tropes, and even the same episode tag: “Obama v. Bush”.

You may not have noticed, but George W. Bush is not on the ballot this time. Mavericks John McCain and Sarah Palin are winning the reformist audience, because reruns of “Obama the Chicago Machine” politician are proving more popular than “Salvation Through The One”.

By all means, take digs at McCain’s service experience, his spunky female running mate and especially his age. This will go over big with three very determined voting groups – military voters, moms and seniors.

And, now, my New Tone friendly advice being given, it’s off to Luby’s (cafeteria- the Ritz for the over 50 set :>))

It began as a wonderful summer morning in New York- crisp and clear, with a touch of fall and its bounty. Unsuspecting travelers boarded aircraft, perhaps looking forward to flying in such beautiful weather and the stunning views to be had with a cup of coffee by the passenger window. It ended in fire and ash and tragedy. There were countless displays of courage under fire and many acts of heroism, some of which will never be known.

Like other tragedies- the loss of the Titanic, the attack on Pearl Harbor, the assassination of John F. Kennedy- the events of 9/11 have seared themselves into the nation’s consciousness. But 9/11 was unique, too. There was no glamorous setting in an ocean liner, and no hint that people would be struck down by the tides of geopolitics or terrorist malevolence. The sheer loss of life and ordinariness of the victims, newly arrived for work at the Twin Towers or the Pentagon, settling down for a routine day that was supposed to be like any other day, compels our attention.

So while there should be observations on the lessons to be learned from 9/11, it is above all a time to remember that the holes burned into the ground also burned a path to our souls. They forged our compassion for the thousands of victims and the many more thousands of bereaved who bear the scars to this day. Without ever knowing them, we remember the dad who never made it home from the firehouse and the mom who never came home from the office, the son who flew a routine flight, the daughter who was excited at her internship in the glittering towers, the brother who had a presentation to give at the Pentagon, and the neighbor who never came back to his apartment in Hoboken that night, or to her car at the Long Island Railroad station.

So let us remember. And may we find the wisdom to fulfill our resolution of “Never Again”.

What a difference a few months make! Crude oil began the year at roughly $96 per barrel. It surged to $145 by mid-July, and has plummeted to near the $102 level today.

Massive amounts of cash flowed into the commodity markets this year, looking for the next hot ticket after the debacle of the mortgage-backed and CDO markets. Prices, predictably, moved upwards. But the 50% price increase clearly was not linked to any change in global demand, and the decline in the dollar, often pointed to as a bogeyman, was itself propelled by speculation.

Over the long term, markets work, and people think rationally about the price rationale for any asset class. Demand for oil has dropped, especially gasoline, and the prices have followed. Big-time. More attention is focused on drilling and alternative energy than would have seemed possible in January. The dollar is out of the doghouse, temporarily anyway, and I’m sure blackhedd can explain the reasons better than I can. Psychologically, IMO, the Russian invasion of Georgia had to be a factor interrupting the romance with the Euro.

But there are scars. The travel and tourism industries have been hit badly, prompting thousands of layoffs. Ditto for restaurants. Consumers have seen the impact of high energy prices on their grocery bills. An already shaky job market, reeling from the pain in the finance sector, did not need another influx of joblessness created by another bubble.

It would be very interesting to have a crystal ball to see the impact of the bursting energy bubble on that financial sector. Hedge funds – the term sounds so prudent and risk averse. But hedge funds have morphed into big speculative players, concentrating and intensifying risk rather than hedging it. One suspects they loaded up on commodities in a big way. One wonders if they unloaded in time, and to whom.

Some surprises are in store for the markets, no doubt!