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The Stakes are Raised in the Russo-Georgian War

By: streiff (Diary)  |  August 13th, 2008 at 01:52 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko has recognized what is at stake in the ongoing Russo-Georgian War (I say ongoing because there is no evidence that the Russians intend to stop killing anytime soon regardless of their protestations) even if our own government has had a great deal of difficulty in coming to grips that Russia has ceased being an ally, partner, or competitor and is now an enemy.

Ever since the Soviet Union gimped off into perdition the already moribund Soviet Black Sea Fleet has been slowly rotting in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol. Until this week when it finally found a mission, blockading a defenseless nation.

According to the Jerusalem Post

Ukraine’s president says Russian navy ships that were deployed to the Georgian coast will need authorization to return to the base Russia leases from Ukraine.

President Viktor Yushchenko’s decree Wednesday requires Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to submit a request to return to its base in the Crimea 10 working days before its planned return.

Russia’s response is both ominous and expected. According to an independent news service based in Macedonia

Representatives of the Russian foreign ministry assessed it is a “politically motivated initiative of the Ukrainian president”. According to Moscow, that move is “not serious”.

“It contradicts all agreements between Russia and Ukraine that pertain to the Black Sea fleet”, representatives of Russian Ministry said.

Sevastopol is located in the Autonomous Region of Crimea(any familiar sounding terms here?) is nearly 60% Russian. Yushchenko understands, even if the West doesn’t, that these Russians, like those recently minted Russians in Georgia will soon need Russia’s “protection.”

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  • streetwise

    were very useful to a disappointed artist from Austria in bygone days.

    The structural similarity in the arguments should not be overlooked.

  • LibRick

    The Soviet breakup (Russian rule) was “not” voluntary. They were once a dominant power and with Putin, the ex-KGB officer pulling the strings, they fully intent to reassert that dominance.

    It amazes me that Russia and China for that matter, re-engage in their oppressive ways under the dubious guise of some perverted version of capitalism (what happened to free markets?) while the world sits back, wrings hands and click their collective tongues. But then, hey, the Olympics are cool, right????

  • bobnivik

    Ukraine has a larger Russo-phile population in general compared to Georgia as well, and with out a convenient natural barrier to conquest like Georgia’s Caucasus Mts.

    Thanks to Ye Olde Soviet/Imperial Systems, most of the post-SSRs do. I recall Riga, Capital of Latvia, used to be majority Russian. Even now, they’re still even with the natives.

  • QueenOfCups

    Apparently sitting down with our enemies really doesn’t work. Neither does trying to forge a close personal friendship. Huh, imagine that. Sometimes people who have powerful intentions can have a friendly side. Nothing personal, right?

  • pennington

    “Yushchenko understands, even if the West doesn’t, that these Russians, like those recently minted Russians in Georgia will soon need Russia’s ‘protection.’”

    Perhaps they will, if the Ukrainians begin bombing them as the Georgians did the South Ossetians in the present situation.

  • streetwise

    map and story

    Dave Hinz Interprets (who knew he knew Russian!)

    And of course, the RS coverage is great, and I’ll put in another plug for Trevino’s excellent analysis on RS today.

    • streiff

      is squirrels showing up and touting the virtues of a violent, criminal kleptocracy. I felt the same way in 2003 with the morons who felt that Saddam’s election with 99% of the vote was legit.

      Now take this for what it’s worth but your constant boosting of one of the most blatant acts of illegal and senseless aggression since 1956 is grating and only a half step removed from Holocaust Denial in terms of social acceptability.

      • aaronbg

        n/t

  • Octavian

    …and Russia wonders why it is not embraced by its neighbors.

    • pennington

      a) yes, I do think it makes sense for Russia to use the crisis started by the Georgians to make a point about Nato expansion. I also think they’ve made their point and, as they seem to be, will let diplomacy work the rest out.

      b) I detest communism, Russia is no longer communist. It is autocratic and capitalist. I’m ambivalent about autocracies.

      c) you all are still fighting the cold war, which is pathetic. If you can’t distinguish present day Russia, where Moscow has more millionaires per capita than any other city, from communism, you don’t know what the term means.

      • streiff

        1. So killing civilians is the new form of diplomatic protest.

        2. I’m ambivalent about autocracies also, I’m just not ambivalent about autocracies who don’t stay in their lane.

        3. Actually, this statement simply reveals your true colors as an apologist for the indefensible. Russian foreign policy has not changed noticeably since the reign of Peter the Great. The number of kleptocrats notwithstanding, Russia is not a “capitalist” country by any stretch of the definition. Russia had millionaires under the communists, too. The only difference was how they got their money.

        I’ve followed your commentary pretty closely on this subject and it is little short of stomach turning.

        I don’t know what your issue is. Whether you are willfully ignorant, or trolling for your own amusement, or simply nonchalant at what is happening. I’m sure you can find a site where your rather dense and tedious insights will be welcomed. But this is not one of them.

        • Octavian

          “Moscow has more millionaires per city”…which is why Russia will not escalate a conflict between Russia and the United States to a nuclear exchange. Russia has more to lose in terms of material things than it did under Soviet rule. How long does one think those millionaires/billionaires and their minions would continue supporting Vladimir Putin if they thought their reality would be vaporized in an instant because of Putin’s actions???

          Keep in mind that the Cold War was going to occur between the United States and Russia after the fall of Nazi Germany regardless if Russia was communist or not. Communism was just a means or an excuse for Russian imperialism that has existed for centuries. Reread George F. Kennan’s articles on Soviet Russia if you are not familiar with the sources of Russian conduct. Thus, whether one wants to term this new stage of US – Russian “relations” as a new cold war or not is just engaging in semantics. The fact of the matter is that Russia, self-absorbed with its self-victimization and insecurities, is determined to conquer its neighbors in the absence of a determined rival to tell it otherwise. Now that may suck for those who would prefer that the US not be forced into such a position but the reality is that there is no other power to step up to the plate and keep Russia in its proper place.

  • Octavian

    Given Russia’s recent breach of the cease fire in Georgia, I seriously doubt whatever purported agreement exists between Ukraine and Russia is worth the paper it is scribbled on.

  • pithnvinegar

    almost daring the Russians to do something. Well, they’ve tried to kill him once already. Bring it on.

    So, who’s got his back? The Baltics, sure. “We must surely hang together, or . . .” Will NATO back him? The verdict is still out on Georgia. How far will the US go to protect the Ukraine? Lame duck president, congress on break, election year . . .

    I predict a starightforward statement by McCain before midnight tonight. We will stand with you.

    Obama? Give it a few days ‘for all the facts to come in’. “Reply hazy. Try again later.”

    • streetwise

      Would you give them a pass on Chechnya, too? And was it a pity that they didn’t get their way in Bosnia, no?

      b) in the American tradition, resistance to autocracy has been a valid casus belli since, oh, 1776 or so. I’m not saying Georgia IS a casus belli, but it is certainly legitimate to consider the question, as it is the national interest to resist expansion that threatens national security.

      c) if Russian millionaires were bombing Georgia with Chanel No. 5, then we wouldn’t be concerned. It’s the Russian state and its bombs that are the issue. The rich kleptocrats in Moscow aren’t.

  • Next93

    Now that the Russians have reverted to form, the only thing that’s going to prevent them from re-establishing thier old empire in eastern Europe is admitting all of thier former vassal states into NATO, and within the next 24 hours.

    It should be apparent to the whole world (finally) that this was the real reason that Russia objected to NATO membership for Poland and the rest of the former Warsaw Pact nations.

    Of course, I’m not sure how much the spectre the Belgian, Dutch, Italian, and Danish combined military might is going to slow the Russians, but at least the American and British troops will have someone to drive the ambulances and do the cooking.

    • Jeff_Emanuel

      …of the South was provoked by a South Korean attack.

      Do you believe them, I wonder? If so, you’re the only one not learning 100% of your facts from North Korean textbooks who does.

      • streetwise

        before any working dinners with Russian diplomats.

        And a geiger counter before cocktails. Remember the “atomic” libations in London?

        • streetwise
          • kowalski

            But this is different…this is the Caucasus, according to Gorby.

            “Anyone…anyone?”

          • JSobieski

            was largely populated by Germans. Of course, that was the result of past German incursions in which the Poles where chased out (everybody wants good port cities). The Georgian populaton in Ossetia used to be far higher as well, but that is another story.

            The bottom line is where are the liberals in criticizing Russia?

            US goes to UN several times, gets resolutions, etc. and ultimately uses force against someone who invaded another country => US BAD

            Russia skips all that, loads up the border with troops, triggers the appropriate incident => US BAD

            Note the common theme here. George Clooney, please say something . . . anything about Russia’s use of force.

          • JSobieski

            The fact that Russia officially has a bunch of oligarchs doesn’t make them western any more than Saudi Arabia is western.

            Both nations deserve a lot of skepticism.

            However, Russia is the country with the proven history of military conquest–the most successful country in the past 2 centuries in that regard

          • Octavian

            If Condoleeza Rice is struck by lightning in broad daylight, Vladimir Putin and Russia is going to be blamed.

          • Pentagon16

            He is a leftist troll who wants to imply that there is NO reason for US action anywhere, thus the Bushitler war was illegal,

            and helping the Georgians is just more evidence of Bushitler’s aggressive acts around the world..

  • olderthangandalf

    This is about way more than Georgia. You’ve got it right on the Ukraine, with the caveat that Yuschchenko is far from secure in his hold on power. There is a anti-western, pro-Russian element that would topple him in a moment if they though they could.

    With regard to Georgia, it’s not just Georgia. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is the only pipeline from Asia to Europe that does not cross Russian territory. If Russian, directly or through a puppet Georgian government, gets control of that pipeline, they effectively dominate the ‘stans who cannot get their petroleum to market without Russian permission.

    • olderthangandalf

      The big money in Moscow was created by the state. These guys are not like western entrepreneurs. They haven’t created value; they’ve stolen assets with the active assistance of the KGB and the state apparatchiks.

      Don’t expect them to rein in Putin. The ones willing to oppose Putin are dead, in prison, or in exile with their bodyguards and food tasters.