United States presidential election, 2016

Another day, another poll. There is a new NBC News - Wall Street Journal poll out. Not a lot changes but let's go to the topline

Trump 33, Cruz 20, Rubio 13, Carson 12, Bush 5, Christie 5, Fiorina 3, Kasich 3, Paul 3, Huckabee 1, Santorum 0.

This is what the trend lines look like:

rcp avg 1-13

This may reflect a little softening of Trump's support or it may not. All things considered it would be the cautious choice to say that Trump has a substantial lead. He is followed by Cruz who has a substantial lead over the next candidate. That next candidate may be Carson or Rubio but based on the turmoil in the Carson campaign we need to view Carson as in descent and Rubio the true third place holder. Then there is the establishment cluster, Bush-Christie-Kasich, that comprises 13 points. But there are some interesting things deeper in the poll.

The pollsters used the second choices of Bush and Carson voters to see where they go if their primary choices fail. It yields +8 points for Rubio, +6 for Cruz, and +5 for Trump.
nbc wsj bush carson 2 choice

The pollsters also ask about a two-man race:

nbc wsj two man race

Right now it looks to be a two-man race and, if it boils down to Cruz and Trump, Cruz is the favorite.