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BREAKING: Herman Cain leading new Zogby poll!

By: Sarah Rumpf (Diary)  |  September 26th, 2011 at 09:56 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

The “Hurri-CAIN” continues…

IBOPE Zogby Poll: Perry Plummets to 18%; Trails Cain For Lead Among GOP Primary Voters

Rick Perry has tumbled by more than 20 percentage points over the past month among Republican presidential primary voters and is now second to Herman Cain, who leads the field with 28%.

Mitt Romney received little benefit from Perrys fall, garnering 17% of the vote for third place…

These results are from an IBOPE Zogby interactive pollconducted Sept. 23-26…

Note the dates of the Zogby poll. It just finished today, so while this is clearly a direct reaction to Cain’s earth-shattering Florida straw poll win, many of the voters were sampled before Cain’s incredibly powerful speech to the Presidency 5 delegates and the past 48 hours’ media circus.

[Cross-posted at Sunshine State Sarah]

Don’t miss:

Sunshine State Sarah | Phone call with Herman Cain

Sunshine State Sarah | Scott Plakon Endorses Herman Cain

UPDATE: Say what you want about Zogby’s methodology, but here’s a Fox News poll, released this evening, that uses traditional live telephone polling, and it shows Romney, Perry, and Cain neck and neck and neck with each other:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/28/fox-news-poll-gop-race-top-tier-now-romney-perry-and-cain/

Something might be happening here…

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  • onemovoter

    In my research on the economic storm clouds on the horizon, we would need Cain more than ever in the White House with more Republicans.

    CNN though had their Poll come out earlier today and there wasn’t much change in the earlier standings. So who knows what’s going on.

    • carolina

      They don’t limit their polls to “likely voters”, much less ” GOP primary voters”. (based on reports I’ve seen/heard)

    • carolina

      They don’t limit their polls to “likely voters”, much less ” GOP primary voters”. (based on reports I’ve seen/heard)

  • Jim Tomasik

    ?

    • explodinghead

      I find that zogby’s polls seem to show whatever the lefts latest meme is. They may have decided that the rise of Cain is a great way to destroy Perry. we al know that polls can be influenced by many things including questions,phrasing and the breakdown of those polled. I tend to believe rasmussen as I feel he at least tries to maintain a professional credibility. Just listening to Zogby on Hannitys show makes my skin crawl. If this lead stands for Cain, well done. We will see. And no I am not a concern troll. I just dustrust Zogby.

      • Doc Holliday

        pollsters are paid and rated by accuracy. I am sick and tired of Perry apologists complaining about polls and straw polls. Ever think the guy might just be a dud?

        I am certainly willing to see him come back from all this. I am not anyone’s fanboy. I am for the guy that can beat Obama.

      • http://www.sunshinestatesarah.com SunshineStateSarah

        that would mean that Cain is tied with Perry as the frontrunner…

        regardless, it’s another poll that shows Cain surging

        • sayoung80913

          Look into democrat James Zogby and his” interactive”internet polling and there will be why no one gives him the time of day.

      • lineholder

        The data is usually distorted, either by ratios of respondents or by the types of questions asked.

        But saying that Zogby might have rigged a poll for the purpose of achieving some leftist agenda by putting Cain at the top of the polling order…sorry, but that doesn’t fit. They definitely do NOT want Cain to gain credibility in this electoral race. If by some chance he actually wins, it does serious damage to their claims about the character of conservatives and proves them to be liars.

        • Doc Holliday

          if all you can do is try to trash pollsters, your candidate has some serious problems. Last night the issue was that leftists had infiltrated Florida conservatives, now, Zogby is putting Cain forth to help leftists.

          This is the same Zogby who predicted Coumo would lost to HW Bush in 1992, and the same Zogby who predicted GW Bush would win in 2000, when most pollsters said otherwise.

          I don’t care about Zogby, no one does. But if you are trying to refute things that happened in the past, it means your not doing much to help your candidate win in the future, that I do know.

          • wonkish1

            I’m perfectly content with several candidates including Cain.

            But this poll is 100% junk. Its meaningless. You look at the historical numbers on there and you know its absolute crap.

            Cain will move up in the polls over the next couple weeks. You don’t need to cite a junk poll to prove anything. He!! the poll posted here on RedState is about as scientific as this Zogby one.

          • Doc Holliday

            Zogby is well known and respected, I did check the results out online. There are experts at this site that can deconstruct polls, I am not one of them. I do know that Zogby is personally a liberal, but his business is in predicting future elections. People pay him money for this service, they will not keep paying for bad info. Would you hire a weatherman who always got it wrong, say a guy who was “biased” towards sunshine?

            People can argue until they are blue, but the fact is Cain is moving up and Perry is moving down. People have been playing down the Texas Dream Act for a week here, but every poll shows it is killing Perry. Few deny his debating skills are lacking, and that is hurting him too.

            What I want is the the best candidate we can put forth to stop the statist socialist hater Obama. If I were dead set on a candidate, which I am not, I would not waste time trying to discredit polls and whistle past the graveyard, I would be doing things to help him win the next battle.

          • wonkish1

            I’m not accusing Zogby of biasing any polls.

            I’m saying that there is a reason why Zogby used to be on the RCP list and now isn’t. And it has everything to do with the method in which he’s conducting them.

            Just look at his previous results(included in the link) and see how unbelievably way off they are from other reputable outfits.

            We’re not talking about a few points here or there. His polls have historically been off by about 30-100% of each candidates polling numbers in other polls.

            His numbers for Romney in several polls should be double what he gets for them. His numbers for Perry at 1 point would have had him much higher than any other polling outfit in the world. He had Cain scoring 18% in July when his RCP average was like 6%. And the list goes on and on.

            Just trying to prevent the Cain supporters here from having to defend a poll like this when the next couple come out with Cain in the 9-14 range.

            I don’t know this for sure, but I believe Zogby uses the methodology he uses because its much cheaper to run. Also, I think it in parts of the world(since Zogby is an international outfit) the online polling is actually slightly more accurate given how bad phone polling is in the country. Lets say you want to poll Peru for example. He utilizes certain controls to make his polls much more accurate then standard online polls.

            Regardless for the reason as to why Zogby has switched his methodology to an unbelievably more unreliable polling operation for the US, it doesn’t change the fact that it is unbelievably unreliable.

            And all of this has nothing to do with my rather fond view of Cain

          • lineholder

            the idea that Cain might actually win, even though the odds are against him at this point, scares people. In all honesty, I can understand why. But he’s still my first choice right now.

            Why? Because with the plans that the Obama admin is looking to enforce in 2012, it’s highly likely that our economic situation will be worse a year from now than it is at present. Reducing spending and the size/scope of government is one of the goals that Conservatives have expressed they want to achieve. It’ going to be much simpler and easier to achieve that goal if we start seeing some growth and development in the private sector first. And so far, in my opinion, Cain has produced the best ideas to succeed on that.

          • Doc Holliday

            my picks are Cain and Gingrich. BTW, all those talking about Gingrich running for Senate or VP, don’t know him very much.

            I don’t predict that either will get the nod, but those are my faves at this juncture.

          • wonkish1

            It may not be Cain, but Newt is now the only person in the double digits besides Perry and Romney down in Florida.

            But even more important and more impressive than that Newt for the first time in any state or national poll has a net positive favorability rating. That is quite amazing given where he started at the beginning of the primaries and how hard and slow favorability ratings move.

          • Doc Holliday

            Newt suffered from MSM character assassination before it was vogue. He brought some of it on himself, but they all do. Newt is the most intelligent person in the race, there really is no question about that. Newt can out debate his Republican rivals and Obama. the question is can our party realize this and support the guy til the end.

            I think a Gingrich/Cain ticket or Gingrich/Rubio ticket would be quite strong.

    • wonkish1

      I’ve got some Florida Swampland to sell you.

      There is a reason RCP isn’t including them in their list. And trust me Mitt Romney does have more than 17% support now, and more than 12% support a month ago. Also Herman Cain didn’t have 18% support in July. I can also assure you that Rick Perry never hit 41% support.

      I’m betting Cain will have a nice bump in the polls over the next couple weeks, but he doesn’t have 28% of Republican primary voters right now, I can assure you of that.

      • carolina

        .

  • sayoung80913

    he’s not even included on the real clear politics average because of it. It would be like a democratic polling outfit, let’s say Politico,putting up a little poll and allowing people to vote on it online. hence the reason no one gives them any credit. It’s garbage

  • http://www.sunshinestatesarah.com SunshineStateSarah

    I’m not saying that Zogby is absolutely accurate or predictive of exact numbers…but I DO think this reflects a TREND.

  • wonkish1

    No offense, but you don’t need to cite an absolute junk and useless poll as evidence of a “trend”.

    Cain will move up in the polls on his own in the coming days.

    But this is the same poll that put Cain at 18% back in July and put Perry at 41% at one point.

    This poll is meaningless because its courtesy of Zogby’s weird online interactive polls.

    Also because apparently I’m a Perry apologist for coming on and clearly pointing out this poll is 100% junk, right now I like Cain a he!! of a lot more than Perry after his performance on Thursday.

  • tommyc

    http://www.myvidster.com/video/2809056/Herman_Cain_-_2012_Fight_For_America

  • Jim Tomasik

    .,/

  • trickamsterdam

    from RCP is good evidence that you’re probably right:

    “No offense, but you don

  • wonkish1

    They are way, way off.

    Also it is for sure an online interactive poll. That is what it is. There isn’t any argument about that. Zogby uses a huge massive database to try to get a representative sample of the country and then attempts to target people with the survey. The science in that field is still brand new so it’s very, very far off on primaries.

    Its a little bit better for the generals hence Obama’s numbers shouldn’t be as far off. But even then, WSJ, AP, RCP, HuffPost, 529, etc. have all called Zogby Interactive the worst poll in the world and the analysis of Zogby Interactive over the years proves it.

    You’ll see exactly what I mean when the next national poll gets released which should likely be tomorrow. All the polling companies are pretty close to each other and then Zogby I is worse than you picking up the phone yourself.