The absolute hysteria of the New York Times proves the attacks are working. According Real Clear Politics, a number of polls released today show McCain down five or six points. Then there is this whopper from NY Times and CBS.
The NYT/CBS poll has McCain down fourteen. I tried to sift through some of the dubious questions, but was more interested in the poll demographics. To my surprise there are none. There are about fifteen pages of lame data and one flimsy paragraph on party identification. Isn’t it standard to provide data on such pertinent facts as age or maybe race. I thought they would make an effort to lie, but they did’t even bother to fool us.
The only real question I have is whether this article was written before or after the poll was taken. They are trying to kill the McCain-Palin campaign so desperately. I only hope their efforts backfire. Our base should rally, while Obama supporters buy into the hype and stay home.
Yeah, they sure are ...
exitsfunnel Tuesday, October 14th at 9:21PM EDT (link)At this point, I’m just hoping that they don’t ‘work’ so well, that the democrats end up with a filibusterer proof majority in congress.
-exits
Learn History
Swamp_Yankee Tuesday, October 14th at 9:26PM EDT (link)Only once since 1856 has the party in the White House managed to retain the presidency when a presidential election occurred during a definable economic downturn.
The fact that McCain is even in this race is good news. Too bad Republicans spent two weeks trying to defeat one bill than trying to win four years.
Not Dead Yet!
NY Times poll
DrOldSchool Tuesday, October 14th at 9:31PM EDT (link)another poll with the Dems having an 8 point unweighted (I think thats the number I calculated) advantage in party ID, and the GOP has less than the Indys. Not the first time someone’s questioned the CBS poll.
The main reason for the spike for Obama in that poll versus its last one is simple, the Indys flipped overwhelmingly for Obama. I would love to know who these people are too.
The base does need to wake up though. The more I dig through these polls, the advantage the Dems have over McCain in the national polls is because the GOP averaging about 31% in identification to the Dems 39%.
The Dems have achieved 39% before (1996, 2000) in exit polls. But for a figure as low as 31% for the GOP, we have to go back to the 70s, when it was even lower after watergate. Is our brand that bad within our own ranks after Bush’s image issues, and with McCain the non-conservative as the standard bearer? I don’t think so, but even the rolling trackers who weight on party ID are using a 6 point spread.
Jim Geraghty at NRO poses the same question when talking about Virginia here
“Is it a third party we need, or is it a new and revitalized second party, raising a banner of no pale pastels, but bold colors which make it unmistakably clear where we stand on all of the issues troubling the people?”
- Ronald Reagan, 1975 Speech to CPAC
No they are just making that up
PaRep Tuesday, October 14th at 9:36PM EDT (link)It has not been that high & they forget the Rush Operation Chaos campaign, Lot of Liberals going to be shocked on Nov. 5th
Supposedly Obama’s Internal polling for Pa. got Mistakenly emailed around & it has him up 2 points in Pa, & ther is the reason both campaigns are living here, If it is 2 % on Nov 4th he will lose Pa.
Link?
exitsfunnel Tuesday, October 14th at 9:41PM EDT (link)Do you have a link substantiating the two point claim. It would be great, but I don’t believe it.
-exits
PaRep - You Can't Tease Us Like That
Swamp_Yankee Tuesday, October 14th at 9:45PM EDT (link)If what you say is true, give us some dirt. I’d love to see something about Obama internals and PA.
He has been camping out there.
Not Dead Yet!
Obama Internals +2 In PA
Swamp_Yankee Tuesday, October 14th at 9:52PM EDT (link)http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2105611/posts
Maybe they do this just to keep the troops motivated.
Not Dead Yet!
State Polls
dld1717 Tuesday, October 14th at 10:10PM EDT (link)I am more concerned at these state polls showing Obama ahead
I mean NC, IN, and even VA by now should not be competitive. FL and MO looked locked up for us and now they aren’t
I am still very nervous but tom. night will really tell us if McCain can still win. Honestly, tom night is really the last chance for McCain
I left the numbers in my office...
DrOldSchool Tuesday, October 14th at 10:34PM EDT (link)But some of the polls I mentioned I was dredging for info show the Democrats have about a 9% advantage in party id in the 12 battleground state polls combined versus their split in 2004 (I don’t remember the actual numbers). The states that have the highest movement towards Democrats are NC, VA and PA, which were all over 10%. Lowest were WI and MN at 2-3%. In some of the states there were significant shifts towards the Dems at the expense of Indys. In others, it was minor with, like the national polls, the GOPers disappearance causing most of the difference.
I’ll post some more info on it later this week when i have more polls to play with after the debate.
“Is it a third party we need, or is it a new and revitalized second party, raising a banner of no pale pastels, but bold colors which make it unmistakably clear where we stand on all of the issues troubling the people?”
- Ronald Reagan, 1975 Speech to CPAC
CBS/NYT only 14 lead? why? after almost 1 year of campaigning for Obama... only 14?
Rod_Patrick Wednesday, October 15th at 3:57AM EDT (link)Hah! CBS/NYT is slipping.
It should have been 110 point lead for Obama. The padded 72 points represent the combined ACORN effect and OBAMEDIA effect.
HUGE SHIFT: Gallup Tracking: Obama + 3 in LV / +8 in RV
Swamp_Yankee Wednesday, October 15th at 12:11PM EDT (link)No we know why there are so many trolls worried about Ayers and Wright and why the NY Times is cooking polls
Not Dead Yet!
HUGE SHIFT: Gallup Tracking: Obama + 3 in LV / +8 in RV
Swamp_Yankee Wednesday, October 15th at 12:11PM EDT (link)Now we know why there are so many trolls worried about Ayers and Wright and why the NY Times is cooking polls
Not Dead Yet!
I would just add a word of warning Swamp
PaRep Wednesday, October 15th at 12:38PM EDT (link)Is it really tightening our are they making it tight, So they can expand it again after Obama “WINS” the debate tonnight
Either Way; People Need To Stop Whining
Swamp_Yankee Wednesday, October 15th at 12:47PM EDT (link)Also, I hope people realize that Gallup changed its polling method in 2008. The ygive two numbers now the traditional and the new method.
the new method is predicated on more people coming out to vote than normal. It is completely presumptuous. This is the number politico and the meida uses.
Under the 2000 and 2004 model, McCain is down 3. People need ot get a grip and fight.
Not Dead Yet!
I agree I was being Half Facetious <nt>
PaRep Wednesday, October 15th at 12:49PM EDT (link).
PaRep/Swamp As a side note on this subject of Polls and Dem weighting....
Attack Mode Wednesday, October 15th at 1:05PM EDT (link)Someone pointed out the other day that another factor in the over weighting of Dems could be the fraudulent registrations in most of the swing states. If pollsters are using raw registration numbers then they are likely to be flawed due to the ACORN fraudulent registrations. This leads to improper weighting of Dem registrants. Obama’s internals are probably slightly more accurate and that is why he hasn’t shifted advertising dollars out of places that are “polling” safe for him. His campaign is in deep with ACORN and they are trying to use the pollsters and registration as propaganda tools.
Something to think about.
“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy
conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!
Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger
“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.
do you think
Ithk4myslf Wednesday, October 15th at 1:11PM EDT (link)turnout will be the 2000 and 2004 levels?
or do we have to admit that turnout will be crazy this year?
Nope both campaigns are living here in Pa. You go where your polling says you
PaRep Wednesday, October 15th at 1:16PM EDT (link)Need to/Have to go
Ithk4myslf....why would we have to admit now that turn out on Nov 4 will be "crazy"...
Attack Mode Wednesday, October 15th at 1:22PM EDT (link)Really what makes you think that this year will buck the historical trends in voter turnout?
Do you really believe that all those college students are all of the sudden going to turnout this year?
And if you do believe that what is the determining factor? What has changed? What makes this year different than all the previous presidential elections since the voting age changed to 18 instead of 21?
By the way I think it is really cute how you ask your “questions”….seems like you have already made up your mind and are just trying to lead someone to the answer you want them to believe.
Don’t act like a moby and people will quit treating you as suspect.
“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy
conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!
Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger
“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.
because look at everything so far
Ithk4myslf Wednesday, October 15th at 1:25PM EDT (link)Huge democratic turnout in the primaries, basically every primary broke records
in 2004, about 425,000 total voted early in GA, now they are already close to 500,000.
Bush won early votes with 60% in 2000 and 2004, so far Obama is up.
sure we can either ignore, it or we can honestly admit that so far factors ARE suggesting record turnout.
I mean how about this
Ithk4myslf Wednesday, October 15th at 1:28PM EDT (link)are there ANY pollsters at all that you trust whatsoever who have done polling?
any whatsoever, and then check their party ids, from 2004 to 2008.
even if we don’t agree with the amounts every pollster I have seen polling National numbers is showing increase.
I think it might be, actually.
birdmojo Wednesday, October 15th at 1:57PM EDT (link)Kerry was an awful, awful campaigner.
The Republicans were able to turn the 2004 election from a referendum on Bush to a referendum on Kerry.
Kerry, being awful, lost the referendum.
This election is three (maybe more) referendums (referendi?) all wrapped up together:
If the election is “vote against tweedledee or vote against tweedledum”, then, yeah, college students aren’t going to show up in any great numbers. Voting against a guy is a stone cold drag, man.
These referendums don’t strike me as loaded in the Republicans’ favor… like the referendum on Kerry was. (Sometimes I wonder what would have happened had Dean been nominated in 2004… I’m fairly confident that Gephardt would have, at least, taken Ohio… but I digress.)
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. –Voltaire
When ACORN is regitering the same person 73 times then of course you will see a rise in Dem registrations...
Attack Mode Wednesday, October 15th at 1:57PM EDT (link)also you forget about Operation Chaos…..and Mickey Mouse and the Dallas Cowboys starting offensive line….so no I don’t trust a single poll….also as far as early voting goes there is still no “legal” accurate way to know who those votes are going to….you are assuming they are going to Obama based on some exit polling…..early voting votes are not actually counted for one candidate or another until election day….quit falling for all the crap the media is feeding you.
“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy
conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!
Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger
“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.
UMMM Yeah sure whatever sparky <nt>
PaRep Wednesday, October 15th at 2:02PM EDT (link).
Hey, the Paulson plan was a mistake
JSobieski Wednesday, October 15th at 3:15PM EDT (link)It appears that $250B of temporary equity investment in banks is going to have a benefit that far exceeds the $850B fiasco of a Paulson Plan.
Pardon us for not supporting the “One and Only Plan that can save us from Certain Doom” because we wanted at least SOME discussion on alternatives.
Increasing FDIC coverage
Nixing the mark-to-market accounting rules
Use of money in such a way as to maximize bang for the buck
I want McCain to win just as much as you do. But blaming people like me for this is crazy. I can just as easily blame Republicans for wanting to quickly brush under the rug the largest line item in the 2008 budget.
If my reluctance to just say “yes” to the Paulson Plan in response to everyone saying “it is either this or die” is such a problem, then you are in the wrong country.
Nothing is locked up until the election actually happens. See Truman
JSobieski Wednesday, October 15th at 3:17PM EDT (link)nt