State of the Race: Pennsylvania!!!


Rasmussen Obama +4

Ramussen has a new poll showing Obama’s lead plummeting to four points. That is down from seven last week and thirteen earlier in the month. According to Rasmussen, only 75% of Pennsylvania Democrats are supporting Obama. By comparison, Kerry won 85% of the Democratic vote in 2004. That spells trouble for Obama.

Also, the often reliable Mason Dixon poll also has Obama leading by four points as well. Strategic Vision has Obama leading by five and even the ludicrous Morning Call poll has Obama leading by eight.

This is a remarkable shift. All polls are trending heavily towards McCain. Democratic Governor, Fast Eddie Rendell is too desperate to play head games with Palin’s popularity. He is freaking out and publicly stating that Sarah is a threat who has enthused the base and is drawing massive crowds.

The early voting patterns are not conforming to the predictive models used by the polling companies. Compared to 2004, young voters are not coming out in substantially higher numbers nor are Democratic voters in general. The weighting of polls to reflect stronger Democratic turnout appears to be flawed. This pattern should hold true in Pennsylvania.

As we all know, it’s all about enthusiasm, enthusiasm, enthusiasm. John and Sarah have worked Pennsylvania hard. Crowds are jacked and Sarah has motivated huge blocks of women and traditional and non-traditional Republicans. Biden has drawn little attention and Obama has largely ignored the state. Obama is not even attending a Pennsylvania event during the closing week.

Most important of all, I’d like to bring your attention to this story. People like this are the real reason we will win Pennsylvania.


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Sarah Palin is not a drag on the ticket.

Mark Kilmer (Diary) Saturday, November 1st at 8:33AM EDT (link)

Such arguments confound me, as I see what she’s doing here in Pennsylvania alone.

Before the primary season, I argued that PA was a blue — not purple — State, and I think I was right. (Philly and Pittsburgh weigh too much.)

I do not think McCain could have won this State — assuming for a second that he wins it — without her.

Fred Barnes says that PA is the State he’s watching on Tuesday. We’re a Commonwealth, but why pick nits and split hairs?

McCain/Palin are going to win Pa. & the Election

PaRep (Diary) Saturday, November 1st at 9:10AM EDT (link)

I have been saying it for a month

 
 

There is NO drag on the ticket.....lets be clear about this election...

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Saturday, November 1st at 9:29AM EDT (link)

When McCain/Palin win this election WE THE PEOPLE will have beaten Harvard/Yale and ELITES….what is the DRAG in this election is these “conservative” and “liberal” elites…..they find McCain not to be one of them and Palin WOW they are truly disgusted by her “average” Jane appeal…..this election is Reaganesque in that neither of them are from an ELITE University and I have to say I AM SICK TO DEATH OF THE HARVARD/YALE GRADS who keep SOCIALISM alive under the guise of compassionate conservatism or straight up liberalism….right President Bush? Right Clinton?

SO LETS SHUT THEM UP! VOTE! MCCAIN/PALIN! VOTE FOR THE TEAM THAT REPRESENTS WE THE PEOPLE THE BEST!

East Tennessee

Justin_Case (Diary) Saturday, November 1st at 9:52AM EDT (link)

has been Republican since the formation of the party. Remember this part of the state did not secede from the Union.

I can clearly state that early voting turnout has been very heavy.

Democrats comprise about 35 – 38 percent of the electorate here.

The lines of voters that flow out onto the sidewalk each day of early voting tell me that Republicans are turning out in large numbers – even though McCain/Palin are leading the state by a wide margin.

Palin is not a drag on the ticket. She is a prime example of how a woman should NEVER be underestimated.

 
 

anyone have info on the internals?

DrShady Saturday, November 1st at 12:45PM EDT (link)

because if Ras is using the same Obama-slanted methodology and can only get a 4-point lead, the ONE is screwed…

just curious if they are adjusting their methods to protect their reputation when O loses…

“Life IS pain, Highness…anyone who says different is selling something…”

Most likely using his +7.2 Dem model

Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Saturday, November 1st at 1:00PM EDT (link)

Which is off the 2004 demographics by 4 or 5 points.

I just saw a video of people in line for a McCain rally in Bethlehem, PA. There were a bunch of Obama protestors across the street. The line of McCain people were ANGRY at the Obama people. The PA Republicans are VERY fired up.

“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy

 
 

About Penn

dld1717 (Diary) Saturday, November 1st at 1:21PM EDT (link)

If anything in 06 taught us about Penn is that Republican have declined in suburbs around Philly. We lost 3 Congressman last cycle alone and it looks like we have no shot of picking up any of those this cylce.

How is McCain doing in a Sestak and Murphy district?