This may come as a surprise to some, but a senate seat in New Hampshire weighs just as much as a senate seat in Florida or Pennsylvania. Yes, it’s true.

The first Rasmussen Poll on the New Hampshire senate race shows Republican Kelly Ayotte leading Democrat Paul Hodes 46% to 38%. She is extremely popular in New Hampshire and will be tough to defeat. Here.

For those that may need some red meat, she is certainly a spending and deficit hawk. She has said all the right things on cultural issues, but fiscal issues and government growth have been the focal point of her campaign and she is standing strong. She is a little soft spoken, which would worry me if she wasn’t such a fierce prosecutor. She launched her website, which isn’t completely populated. But you can check her out here.

In fairness, Ovide Lamontagne also is exploring a run. Ovide has considerable support amongst conservatives in New Hampshire. Ovide will run to the right of Ayotte. A competitive primary may be a good thing for Ayotte who is a political novice. She needs some practical campaign experience and a threat from the right should keep her honest.

I suspect many will immediately support the more conservative candidate without much research. I am a little leery of Ovide for a couple of reasons. First, he ran for governor against Jeanne Shaheen in 1996, when New Hampshire had much more solid Republican roots, and was thoroughly trounced 57% to 39%. He ran a poor campaign.

After that, he fell off the map. I’m skeptical of Republicans who emerge from the darkness in this favorable electoral climate. I have to wonder, where have you been Ovide? But Ovide deserves a fair chance and those who want to check him out can look here.