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MA-SEN: A Tuesday Election Primer (Updated)

By: Swamp_Yankee (Diary)  |  January 17th, 2010 at 09:56 PM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

I have been looking at the numbers of some past elections. Some of the broad themes are becoming common knowledge, but I broke down some numbers and offer some observations for those who may not be familiar with the state.

FIVE ON THE MONEY:
Regardless of size or demographics, these six cities and towns often vote the same as the state at large. As they go, so seems the state.

2002 Official: Romney won 50 to 45.
2008 Official: Obama won 62 to 36.

1. Gloucester:

Romney: 55 to 49
Obama: 65 to 33

2. Hull:

Romney: 49 to 45
Obama: 60 to 38

3. Maynard:

Romney: 49 to 45
Obama: 63 to 35

4. Waltham:

Romney: 51 to 43
Obama: 63 to 35

5. Winthrop:

Romney: 50 to 45
Obama: 59 to 40

THE ROMNEY TEN:

Here is a list of ten cities to watch. These mid-sized cities usually vote Democratic, but broke for Romney in 2002. Each city has a minimum population of 30,000 and represents a diverse region.

1. Braintree, population 34,442 (South Shore)

Brown will do well south of Braintree, along the South Shore. The South Shore is important for Brown. Quincy, wedged between Boston and Braintree, may be tough for him. But Braintree is the real fault line that seperates Greater Boston from the South Shore. He needs to do well there.

Romney: 55% with 8,073
O’Brien: 42% with 6,130

Patrick: 6,356
Healey: 6,289

Obama: 50% with 9,298
McCain: 48% with 8,964

2. Falmouth, population 33,247 (Cape Cod)

Cape Cod is also important for Brown, especially the more densely populated western half. Brown should do well in the region, but the city to watch is Falmouth. Falmouth may be the biggest battleground in the region. It should break for Brown.

Romney: 51% with 7,642
O’Brien 44% with 6,490

Patrick: 7,875
Healey: 5,814

Obama: 60% with 11,725
McCain: 39% with 7,503

3. Haverhill, population 59,902, (Merrimac Valley)

Haverhill is the second largest city carried by Romney. It is located along the New Hampshire border. The area has suffered as a result of the tax disparities between NH and MA. Anti-Beacon Hill sentiments run strong in the region. Brown should do well in the region, but a strong showing in Haverhill will be evidence of a Brown tide.

Romney: 56% with 9,680
O’Brien: 39% with 6,836

Patrick: 8,930
Healey: 7,173

Obama: 58% with 15,552
McCain: 40% with 10,814

4. Framingham, population 64,768, (Metro West)

The largest city to break for Romney. Brown needs to crush Plymouth and Barnstable County, but that alone is not enough. Brown should win many small towns in Metro-West and elsewhere, but if he can carry the vote rich mid-sized cities outside of his home turf in the South Shore, it will be a great sign.

Romney: 51% with 10,868
O’Brien: 44% with 9,225

Patrick: 11,076
Healey: 6,718

Obama: 67% with 17,839
McCain: 32% with 8,464

5. Westfield, population 40,160, (Western Mass)

Western Mass is Coakley country. The sparsely populated region shouldn’t be a big factor in this race. But Westfield may be a city worth watching. It is one of the largest battlefields in the region. Obama won by eight points with 9,304 votes. The vote totals here may reflect the level of interest in the region by Democrats and Republicans.

Romney: 54% with 7,050
O’Brien: 42% with 5,447

Patrick: 6,135
Healey: 4,891

Obama: 53% with 9,304
McCain: 45% with 7,762

6. Peabody, population 51,441, (North Shore)

The North Shore has Republican belts. Its a diverse region and Peabody represents one of the larger swing cities in the region. Brown has strong support in the South Shore, but he needs help in the North Shore. Brown needs a strong showing here.

Romney: 53% with 10,520
O’Brien: 43% with 8,397

Patrick: 10,003
Healey: 7,989

Obama: 57% with 14,818
McCain: 42% with 10,800

7. Fitchburg, population 39,835, (Central Mass)

Fitchburg is a true battleground city in central Mass. Romney won the state by five, but only squeaked out a three point win here. If Brown is leading here it is an excellent sign. Fitchburg is located in the northern central part of the state and is close to NH like Haverhil.

Romney: 49% with 5,061
O’Brien: 46% with 4,655

Patrick: 5,766
Healey: 3,421

Obama: 60% with 8596
McCain: 38% with 5,378

8. Waltham, population 59,798, (Metro West)

Waltham lies right outside the Democratic heart of the state. Like Braintree to the south, it represents a fault line. Its is a battleground city seperating Greater Boston from Metro-West. It is also a true bellweather state. Its a state worth watching very closely.

Romney: 51% with 8742
O’Brien: 43% with 7523

Patrick: 9,082
Healey: 5,955

Obama: 63% with 15,265
McCain: 35% with 8,383

9. Plymouth, Population 55,188, (South Shore)

Plymouth may be the most Republican city on this list. It is located in the South Shore, which is Brown country. Obama won this city by only seven points with 15,180 votes. It is worth watching the margins and turnout in South Shore cities. Plymouth is large and should be vote rich for Brown.

Romney: 58% with 11,025
O’Brien: 37% with 6,888

Patrick: 10,000
Healey: 8,623

Obama: 53% with 15,180
McCain: 46% with 13,139

10. Attleboro, population 43,113, (Blackstone Valley)

Attleboro may also be considered part of the South Shore, but it located along the Rhode Island border. The Blackstone Valley, which lies along the Rhode Island border is solid GOP country. Romney did well here. Brown will need to max out this red corridor.

Romney: 59% with 6,835
O’Brien: 37% with 4,297

Patrick: 6,339
Healey: 5,487

Obama: 56% with 10,523
McCain: 42% with 8,003

THE ‘EVEN MCCAIN WON’ LIST:

Obama beat McCain 62 to 36. McCain only won a small fraction of cities and towns and most of them have small populations. Brown needs to crush Coakley in the following cities and towns:

Ashby
Blanford
Boxford
Charlton
Douglas
Dracut
East Bridgefield
East Brookfield
Granfield
Halifax
Hampden
Hanover
Hanson
Hubbarston
Kingston
Lakeville
Lynnfield
Middleborough
Middleton
Millville
Montgomery
Norfolk
Northbridge
North Brookfield
North Reading
Norwell
Oakham
Raynham
Rochester
Rowley
Rutland
Southwick
Sterling
Sutton
Tewksbury
Tolland
Townsend
Tyngsborough
Uxbridge
Walpole
Whitman
Wilmington
Wrentham
Topsfield

THE COUNTIES:

There are fourteen counties in Massachusetts: Barnstable, Berkshire, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, and Worcestor. You can find a good map of each country, city and town here.

Counties are not homogenous and make poor reference markers. But, generally speaking, Berkshire, Bristol, Dukes, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Nantucket, and Suffolk bleed deep blue. Brown needs big numbers in Barnstable and Plymouth. Brown will also need to do well in Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk and parts of Worcestor.

THE REGIONS:

Brown’s home turf is the South Shore. The “South Shore” is not the same as the “South Coast”, which is Coakley turf. Coakley’s base lies in Greater Boston, Western Mass, the South Coast and all the major cities. Brown’s base lies in the South Shore, the Upper Cape, and the Blackstone Valley. The key battlegrounds lie in the North Shore, the Merrimac Valley, Metro-West and Greater Worcestor.

THE CITIES:

The largest cities will break for Coakley. Brown will need low turnout in the major cities. The Bay State’s top ten largest cities:

1 Boston 599,351
2 Worcester 173,966
3 Springfield 149,938
4 Lowell 103,512
5 Cambridge 101,388
6 Brockton 93,092
7 New Bedford 91,849
8 Quincy 91,622
9 Fall River 90,905
10 Lynn 87,122

YOU’LL KNOW COAKLEY IS IN TROUBLE PART I:

Of the top ten cities, Lowell and Quincy may be the most competitive. If Brown can stay competitive in Quincy or Lowell, its a sign that Coakley is in big trouble.

YOU’LL KNOW COAKLEY IS IN TROUBLE PART II:

You know Martha Coakley is in trouble if the turnout is low in Boston, Worcestor, Springfield, Cambridge, Brockton, Fall River, New Bedford, Lynn, Lawrence, Newton, Brookline, Somerville, Watertown, Arlington, Malden, Medford, Pittsfield, Holyoke, North Adams, Amherst and Northhampton.

ABSENTEE BALLOTS:

There was a huge absentee ballot movement on behalf of Brown. They are counted last, but should break heavily for Brown. However, dont underestimate possible shenanigans .

ODDS AND ENDS:

* Somerville is a major Democratic stronghold, but it is Mike Capuano’s city. If his people don’t bother to show up, Coakley is done.

* Chelsea (Eastern MA) and Holyoke (Western MA) represent two hispanic cities. It is unknown if minorities will show up for Coakley. They may be good indicators.

* Brown represents Wrentham, but grew up in the North Shore in Wakefield.

* Coakley is from Pittsfield, a major Democratic city in the West and lives in Medford.

* Coakley made her bones as a prosecutor in Middlesex County.

* The local Fox affiliate doesn’t have as much fluff as the other local networks, but Scott Brown’s wife works for the local ABC affiliate. NECN is a decent local outlet.

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COMMENTS

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  • malbis

    Thanks. I’ll be using it.

    I’ve been toying with the math over the last few days, and even with a large number of independents (unenrolled) breaking for Brown, I still see this as a long shot in a state where only 11% of the voters are registered GOP, and only about 1/3 of the independents lean Republican.

    Correct me if I’m wrong–and I hope I am–but it looks to me like Brown would have to take more than 80% of the independent vote (and the independent vote would need to be unusually high) in order to win the election. And even then he would need to have registered Dem turnout be low. Is that about right?

    Corrections gladly accepted and much appreciated.

    From the 1940 feature film Ghost Breakers, starring the late, great, Bob Hope and Paulette Goddard:

    Scientist: “It?s worse than horrible, because a Zombie has no will of his own. You see them some times, walking around blindly with dead eyes, following orders, not knowing what they do, not caring.”

    Bob Hope: “You mean, like Democrats?”

  • The_Rebel

    I’m in the northern part of Norfolk County, so will be watching this area with great interest. Is there a site that will show returns by city and/or county?

    • Swamp_Yankee

      I usually follow some of the national networks, but want sure who will follow this one. Biggest it is getting big, I assume the politic or RCP may. Locally I think NECN. I may update this if I find out.

      • The_Rebel

        n/t

        • Swamp_Yankee

          Brown should do well in the western two-thirds. Closer to B-town is iffy. How dod you read the tea leaves out there.

          • proudgop

            Belmont will go for Brown

            He is doing as best as he can in Newton too.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            … before Newton goes Red. But every vote counts. And if Brown can’t carry a town like Belmont, its all hype and no follow through.

  • aesthete

    and thank you for your efforts to educate and motivate the RS community on behalf of Brown, whatever the outcome ends up being.

    • http://www.suvstrategery.blogspot.com SoFiMil

      Including thanks for the research as mentioned by Rebel.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    “Your vote for Joe Kennedy may be the vote that makes the difference. Your vote may be the Tipping Point vote that sets in motion more and more Tea Party candidates, more and more Ron Paul candidates, more and more small government candidates.
    For 2010. And for 2012.

    To our fellow Tea Party Protesters, Town Hall Meeting activists, Tax Cutters, our fellow Ron Paul supporters, and all who are committed to small government:

    We endorse Joe Kennedy for U.S. Senate this January 19th.

    Join us and thousands of others – and vote Joe Kennedy for U.S. Senate(MA) this January 19th.”

    The Libertarian Party continues to usurp the “Tea Party” brand, Thatis part of an LP email blast, but they mask much of their LP roots. This race is high profile so not too many people will be duped, but some are.

    Consider this a warning. I know its all good feelings right now, but this could be a real headache for the rest of the GOP slatee in 2010.

    • Richard Mullins

      I didn’t know that she is a Ronulan(Debra Medina) but after yesterday Rick Casey article in the Houston Chronicle(hint, this guy has moved along like a snake over the years). Ok here’s the link:
      http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitian/casey/6820557.html

      I wonder if Mr Kennedy tried to run as a Republican(not much chances since he’s a Reformed Democrat{it’s on his website}), would they have supported him then, my guess is yes.

      • Swamp_Yankee

        Some many people are worried about the Tea Party starting a thrid party, but the Libertarian Party is already around. If they get an additional five percent boost from their Tea Party brand, it will be bad for GOPers in the general.

        • Achance

          It gives the left-leaning crazies and the more dedicated pot smokers a place to go other than to the Democrats. We’ve found here that the Greens siphon off about as much from the Ds as the AIP and LP siphon off from the Rs in Statewide races.

          • Richard Mullins

            they might do well. The Green party is a certified party in this state but they don’t seem to have any candidate yet. It looks like it time for them to wonder down 6th street in Austin of Montrose in Houston to find there person. Of course, that would possibly knock out Farouk Shami as the Democratic nominee for Governor. LP’s seem to get a little of both here in Texas(feckless Republicans and Democrats that don’t like there party being so progressive). We don’t have a TIP(Texas Independence Party) and the Republic of Texas is still in the Woods.

          • Swamp_Yankee

            But I’m not sure we knowthe extent of the boost the LP will get in some places. The LP usually gets their 1 to 3 percent.

            But I think many conservatives are drunk on this era of good feeling. Its easier to unite against something than to unite for something. There’s going to be a lot a “necons”, “socons”, “RINOS”, running on the GOP slate 2010. At least that will be the perception. And if the “Tea Party” movement can create some crossover appeal between conservtives and the LP, it may boost their numbers up to 5 or 10 percent to the detriment of the GOP. People love it, but I’m startnig to think conservatives are playing with fire.

            I think Kennedy might be in the 8% range if not for Massachusetts desire to elect any Pub, the 41st vote, ObamaCare and the historic nature of this race.

  • Swamp_Yankee

    There was a nice Brown rally outside the Boston Garden for the Bruins game. This could be a Brown landslide.

    But I cannot delude myself. The raw numbers are still daunting. The Boston machine can churn out votes and I fear that they may come alive yet. Springfield/Holyoke too.

    This race is about arrogance, but Beacon Hill’s decision to raise the sales tax may make the difference. Lowell, Haverhill, and the New Hampshire border towns swinging for heavy for Brown, along with depressed voter turnout in the South Coast mill cities may make the difference for Brown.

    There is a lot of room for wild swings here. No time to let up.

    • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

      We’re freerolling the Democrats on this. If we win, it’s a free seat and we have momentum. If we lose, well, it was expected.

      We can’t lose.

      • Richard Mullins

        So, win or lose we need to keep up a fight.

        • Swamp_Yankee

          There’s an art to projecting confindence and demoralizing your enemy, while not becoming too over confident that you peak too early.

          We’ll see how it looks. Just keep fighting.

          • Aaron Gardner
    • proudgop

      do all u can for him in Mass all day today and tomorrow

  • mbecker908

    And, this is an excellent breakdown that we can follow.

    In your OP you say…

    YOU?LL KNOW COAKLEY IS IN TROUBLE PART I:

    Of the top ten cities, Lowell and Quincy may be the most competitive. If Brown can stay competitive in Quincy or Lowell, its a sign that Coakley is in big trouble.

    So, just a few minutes later comes this gift…

    James Sheets a six term Democratic mayor of Quincy today endorsed Scott Brown for United States Senator. He released the following statement via the Brown campaign:

    “Despite being a lifelong member of the Democratic Party, I am endorsing Scott Brown for Senate, as I know he will always represent Massachusetts with an independent voice in Washington,” Sheets said. “Martha Coakley has repeatedly stated she would cast the critical 60th vote for the current health care proposal that would slash Medicare funding by nearly half-a-trillion dollars and dramatically impact the care so many seniors rely upon in their final years. As our United States Senator, I am confident Scott Brown will only support legislation that will benefit his constituents, and this is why I will be voting for him on Tuesday.”

    Quincy is the seventh largest city in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts with a population of over 92,000. This move signals to the residents of that city that it is OK to vote for Scott Brown.

    HT to RedMass Group

  • Swamp_Yankee

    • Tbone

      to a puddle in his shoe.