The good news, first:

The numbers for illegal immigration into the United States are lower than they’ve been in years.

The bad news, however:

The numbers in July took a 15 percent spike upwards, suggesting the initial shock of a Trump presidency is wearing off.

From the Washington Times:

The border patrol nabbed 13 percent more illegal immigrants last month than in June, while officers at the ports of entry saw a 23 percent spike in the number of inadmissible aliens showing up and demanding entry. The number of Border Patrol arrests is deemed a yardstick for the overall flow of people.

July usually sees a drop, so the surge signals a change in the usual seasonal patterns.

The numbers of families and unaccompanied alien children (UAC), which have been particularly troublesome cases, also saw huge spikes. UAC were up 27 percent in Border Patrol statistics, while people traveling together as families surged 46 percent.

A spokesman for Homeland Security was reticent to try and predict the cause of the increase in border crossings, saying they’re still trying to figure out the meaning of this new trend.

A pretty good guess could be that they see that there is no wall, DACA is still in place, and the opinion on immigration among American citizens seems to be split. Trump’s campaign trail bluster has not translated into a lot of action in keeping his promises.

Customs and Border Protection officers at the ports of entry recorded 6,833 inadmissible aliens trying to enter. The Border Patrol, meanwhile, nabbed 18,198 illegal immigrants who snuck across the border.

The combined number of 25,031, while the highest under Mr. Trump, is still lower than any other month under President Obama dating back until December 2011.

Let’s be honest, though. Obama threw the gates open and invited chaos.

When you compare July 2016 to July 2017, there’s an 85 percent difference in numbers. Border Patrol picked up 33,737 in July 2016, so there is a considerable drop.

President Trump is calling this a success, and even said these numbers are the reason he decided to bring John Kelly in from leading the Department of Homeland Security to running the White House, as chief of staff.

We can call this success, but let’s keep an eye on those numbers.