Ron Johnson is here to stay
From Unlikely Voter: When Ron Johnson showed a lead over Russ Feingold in the Wisconsin Senate polling, it could have been a fluky outlier result. The incumbent Democrat could still have been safe. Rasmussen again has Johnson ahead, though, so that theory is ruled out. The lead is tiny, but looks real.
Fox News meets the Swingometer
From Unlikely Voter: Opinion Dynamics did a generic ballot poll for Fox News, so we welcome Fox to the Swingometer today. Also polled is the President’s performance on the issues. I see on the issue of “Race Relations” Barack Obama has +16 net approval at 50/34. I wonder if that will change after his statements on The View yesterday.
Unpacking the California Senate polling
From Unlikely Voter: I’ve seen a few Republicans express serious doubts about Carly Fiorina after the latest California Senate poll from Public Policy Polling, but I think close inspection of that poll should give one pause before putting too much weight on its results. Besides, the other new poll, from the Public Policy Institute of California, deep down is as bad for Barbara Boxer as | Read More »
The primary heats up in New Hampshire
From Unlikely Voter: The big, scary to Republicans headline over at Hotline is Ayotte’s Unfavorable Ratings Rising in UNH Poll. I’m sure it’s true, but that’s what happens in contested primaries such as the one right now for Republicans in the New Hampshire Senate race. Right now, Bill Binnie’s fans don’t like Kelly Ayotte much, her fans don’t like him much.
Dudley’s lead confirmed
From Unlikely Voter: We’re now at three polls in a row, counting the new Rasmussen, that show Chris Dudley ahead of John Kitzhaber in Oregon. Even without a third party candidate mucking up the poll, the Democrat just can’t pull ahead.
Who is Rob Fisher?
Red Maryland has obtained documents, which show cyber security executive, Rob Fisher, who is challenging GOP favorite Andy Harris in the Republican primary for Maryland’s first district congressional seat, has stronger ties to the Commonwealth of Virginia than Maryland. According to the Maryland State Board of Elections Fisher registered to vote in Maryland in 1996 but has not voted in a single election in Maryland | Read More »
Pomeroy’s not finished yet
From Unlikely Voter: Today is apparently the day for House races, because we have another one to look into: the North Dakota at-large race. We’ve looked at this race before, and it wasn’t promising for incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy, but right now he seems to be closing into Republican challenger Rick Berg.
Babs Boxer: Being a Senator is as tough as being a soldier
It’s no wonder Madam Senator Barbara Boxer (Democrat-California) demands to be called Senator: She thinks it’s a pretty tough job. In fact, she thinks it’s as tough as being “a policeman or a fireman or a veteran.” It gets better, too. She says “the pressure” that she and Maxine Waters feel creates the same bonding that the aforementioned police, fire, and military volunteers endure and | Read More »
Haslam shows all around lead in Tennessee
From UnlikelyVoter: Tennessee is the state that most moved away from the Democrats in 2008 at the national level. Barack Obama ran worse there against John McCain than John Kerry did against George Bush. The Republican trend there seems to continue as Mason-Dixon’s poll of the Governor’s race there for The Tennessean shows every Republican on top.
Cook updates on the House
A simulation of the 2010 House races as charted by the Cook Political Report follows, but right here is all you need to know about who’s favored: Democrats currently have 66 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up. Republicans currently have 7 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up. Oh and on top of the 66, there are 2 seats held by Democrats which are | Read More »
Florida Senate Update
We have a pair of polls to look at updating us on the Florida Senate race, a general election carpet bomb from Rasmussen, and a peek at the race between the Democrats in the primary from PPP. Unfortunately, what we don’t have is any clarity.
Abortion will not drive California elections this year
The Orange County Register ran a doom and gloom article on abortion, saying that a Field Poll release suggests abortion will drive statewide elections this year. This is important because Carly Fiorina is a three-exception pro-life Republican. But there’s one big, honking problem with that theory, and the Register‘s Dena Bunis even mentions it: Among Boxer supporters, 82 percent support abortion rights. Of those who | Read More »
Gallup caught lying about the generic ballot trend [Updated 6PM ET]
[6PM ET update after 12PM ET original post at the bottom of this post] The Gallup Generic Ballot is a trusted, widely reported resource. I’ve analyzed it extensively, and defended it to others. But yesterday, when I covered the poll’s latest release, Gallup lied. I was lied to, you were lied to, everyone who’s trusted the Gallup name got lied to. How? Gallup is combining | Read More »
More good news for Rob Portman
Since I tried to tell Rob Portman his business, and suggested he was emphasizing the wrong issues in his campaign, two polls have come out covering the Ohio Senate race. Both by Rasmussen, the late June poll had Portman up 4, and now Rasmussen’s July poll has Portman up 6. I clearly picked the wrong moment to speak up!
Rasmussen and Gallup generic ballots diverge
Until now, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports have generally pointed in the same direction with their generic ballot polls. If they’ve differed, it’s been in the magnitude. This week, that has changed. How big a difference is it, and what does the Swingometer say about it all? Let’s find out.