Ehrlich takes a lead in Maryland
In sports there’s an old saying that I like to quote: “It’s not a rivalry until both sides win.” I’m thinking it’d be wise to extend that to political polling, and say that a race isn’t truly close until both sides have led. In that case, the Maryland Governor’s race is truly close now.
Swinging Democracy Corps’ Generic Ballot
(H/T to Liberty Central) So Greenberg Quinlan Rosner did another generic ballot for Democracy Corps, as Democrats try to find messages that will stem the Republican tide. But how are things looking now, and what does the Swingometer say about it?
Fisher leads Portman despite Ohio rejecting the PPACA
We have two new polls to look at on the Ohio Senate race, one from Quinnipiac University and the other from Public Policy Polling. The results are very similar, so I think it’s pretty safe to say that for the moment, Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, though by a hair.
California Proposition 19: The next stand for federalism?
California’s going to have a busy ballot in November. In addition to voting for Governor, Senator, and more statewide offices than you can shake a stick at, we’re going to have a long list of initiative statutes and constitutional amendments to deal with. One of the more interesting ones is numbered 19. Proposition 19, the Regulate, Control, and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010, if passed | Read More »
Kansas Senate: Moran up big, Democrats split
SurveyUSA polls usually bring a wealth of information to those of us without any sort of subscription, but this poll the Kansas Senate primary was conducted for KWCH and we apparently don’t get to see the usual large tables SurveyUSA churns out. We do get to see who’s winning and who’s losing though, so let’s check on that.
, Charles Schollenberger
, David Haley
, Jerry Moran
, Lisa Johnston
, Robert Conroy
, Todd Tiahrt
Simulating the latest Cook House ratings
On Thursday the latest House ratings from the Cook Political Report came out. I think it’s high time we re-ran those numbers in a simulation of the national election, and see what the ratings suggest for November.
Rossi Ties Murray
It’s the weekend, so I will be brief, but I saw this poll and thought I’d mention it: After so many polls showing him competitive or even close, Dino Rossi has registered a tie with Patty Murray in the Washington Senate race.
Wal-mart Moms: This year’s catch phrase?
Wal-Mart decided to do its own generic ballot poll, so it’s no surprise that the cutesy demographic group that’s coming out of it is ‘Wal-Mart Moms.” But if they’re real, they’re real, right? So who are they?
Neck and Neck in New Mexico
Via Real Clear Politics we now turn to this Magellan Strategies poll of the New Mexico Governor’s race. New Mexico is a swingy state, capable of going with either party for Senate, Governor, or President, that swung sharply against Republicans in recent years. But right now the race for Governor is nearly even.
Landmark shift in the Gallup enthusiasm readings
National Journal noticed an event in the Gallup voter enthusiasm polling: Republicans have gone off the scale, while Democrats have fallen far off from 2006. Since 1994 the numbers have tracked with victory and defeat, with the party ahead in enthusiasm winning the House, but this scale is… well, just look.
One month out for the Georgia Republicans
Roy Barnes seems to have his party’s nomination sewn up for Governor of Georgia, but the Republicans have seven names on the ballot, with three over double figures. SurveyUSA took a look. Barnes is well over 50 for the Democrats, but a runoff appears certain for the Republicans. The only question is which two will make it?
A surprise turn in Wisconsin
Good afternoon, wherever you may be. My apologies for getting today’s poll goodness out late, especially since it’s one I wanted to post yesterday anyway. But it turns out that, per Rasmussen, the Wisconsin Senate may yet be a race after all, despite the fact that many of us probably tuned it out once Tommy Thompson declined to run.
Election eve in Utah
With the election tomorrow, I thought I’d take a look at two recent polls of the Utah Senate primary between Tim Bridgewater and Mike Lee, the top two vote getters in the GOP convention. Sometimes polls can differ, but this is a huge difference. I’m looking at one poll Dan Jones & Associates conducted for Deseret News and KSL-TV, and another that Wenzel Strategies did | Read More »
, Bob Bennett
, Dan Jones & Associates
, Deseret News
, Jim DeMint
, Mike Lee
, senate conservatives fund
, Tim Bridgewater
, Wenzel Strategies
Boxer showing rare vulnerability for a California Democrat
I always hesitate to analyze the California Senate polling because I have strong feelings about it. I live here. I was engaged in the primary. But this is key to determining how big of a wave, if any, Republicans see in the Senate, so I must try. I’ve given enough time for both parties to settle down after the primaries, so here’s Rasmussen’s latest. Boxer | Read More »
Murray losing ground
The Elway Poll has updated us on the Washington Senate race. And while the Republicans have yet to decide who will be the standard bearer against Patty Murray, Dino Rossi is getting all the attention. That said, Elway shows Murray below 50 against all leading Republicans, who each gained 6-8 points against her.