By request, I’ve decided to take a look at just what kind of electorate the Public Policy Polling screening of Likely Voters seems to be predicting. To do this I will use recent PPP polls from two states: California, which went for Barack Obama heavily, and West Virginia, where Obama’s popularity has never been that hot.
The old saw is that Republicans try to suppress elections and Democrats try to steal them. We are certainly seeing what appears to be the Democrats trying to steal the election in close races this year. We now know that the SEIU is in charge of the voting machines in Las Vegas where Harry Reid’s name is coming pre-checked. But buried in the news is | Read More »
You have not stopped Barack Obama. You have not, to paraphrase P. J. O’Rourke, served the restraining order. You have not made this country safe. You have not stopped the advance of socialism in this country. You have not stopped the Democrats from destroying the economy. You, all of you, have won nothing. NOTHING. And it will stay that way — imaginary wins, fictitious actions | Read More »
As always I give the note that any analysis I do of the California Senate race carries an unusual risk of bias because I live here and I have a strong emotional attachment to the outcome. That said, I’m beginning to notice a pattern in the polling between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina that suggests serious, late-breaking movement in favor of the Republican. | Read More »
Here is how things are shaping up — in order. I have prepared the chart below, though truth be told, Club For Growth did all the leg work. I just plugged in websites. I left off the likely D and long shot races to focus on the seriously viable races. There are a lot of them. We only need 39 and there are 37 lean | Read More »
The writing is on the wall for Missouri Democrats. Their chances of winning the Senate seat currently held by Republican Kit Bond certainly qualify for the “slim to none” category. This was recognized by national Democrats with the recent decision to cancel much of their reserved air space for advertising. A few weeks ago, Bill S had a great piece about Carnahan running an outdated | Read More »
I once said that Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was done. Finished. Had no chance of winning the South Dakota at-large House seat. Was pining for the fjords. Hers was a dead candidacy. She then promptly tied up the race in the polling. I already have enough egg on my face that I’m genuinely hoping polls like this one hold up, with Republican Kristi Noem ahead, | Read More »
It’s getting remarkably rough for the Democrats out here in California. Long, long time Assembly Speaker (and then after 1994 booted him out, San Francisco Mayor) Democrat Willie Brown has no confidence in any of the top Democrats, saying they have no ground operation at all. He applied that to Jerry Brown (Governor), Gavin Newsom (Lt. Governor), and Babs Boxer (Senate). The Chamber of Commerce | Read More »
An article in today’s Politico discusses Governor Palin’s efforts to help elect Republican candidates across the country. I get a lot of calls/questions about Governor Palin since the 2010 SRLC, so I thought I’d take this opportunity to make a quick comment. As most of you know the 2010 SRLC was the largest Republican Leadership Conference in over 30 years – with more speakers, more | Read More »
Republican Pat Toomey has been rather comfortable in the Pennsylvania Senate polling. He hit double digits in the last Rasmussen poll a week ago, and Democrat Joe Sestak hasn’t led a poll since one weird outlier in the middle of May. For PPP to show Sestak up today is definitely surprising, and noteworthy, but it’s possible this is an outlier.
For a while now I’ve been calling the Nevada Senate race tied. Before the primary, Repbublican Sharron Angle led comfortably. Right after the primary, Democrat Harry Reid won 9 of 10 polls. Then came a stretch of polls in the last few weeks of September which included 3 Reid leads, 3 Angle leads, and 2 ties. That was what I easily called a tied race. | Read More »
Looks like Harry Teague (NM-02) has outlived his usefulness: the DCCC is pulling funds out of his race and throwing them at Martin Heinrich’s in NM-01. This is probably due to Teague’s recent fading in the polls against challenger Steve Pearce, which is apparently being helped along by revelations about Teague’s canceling of his own private employees’ health care plans. It’s also interesting that the | Read More »
It’s no wonder that the Chamber of Commerce, feared by Barack Obama, is ready to spend another $1.25 million educating Americans about the dismal failure that Babs Boxer’s 28 years in DC have been. Since Carly Fiorina started her ad offensive and kept piling on, the polls have been moving. The television barrage has come just at the right time. While a month ago it | Read More »
Since Democrat Joe Manchin, West Virginia Governor and Senate candidate, literally shot a copy of the “Cap and Trade” bill that DC Democrats tend to support, it’s been clear that Republican John Raese’s easy days of running against Barack Obama were going to get harder. But the new Orion Strategies poll for Marshall University of the race just isn’t credible.
As I’ve not been shy about saying, I have an emotional attachment to the California Senate race. I live here, I’ve always lived here, and in fact Democrat Barbara Boxer was first elected to the Senate when I was first beginning to follow politics, back when I was 14 years old. So I knew the television ad campaigns would make or break the race for | Read More »
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