I still have the Washington Senate race as one of the four closest, despite Republican Dino Rossi taking a decent lead over Democrat Patty Murray in recent polling. This is why: both candidates have been capable of rattling off good polls, and one new result at any time can come out in favor of either candidate.
Both of which are backed by Sen. DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund. First up is Ken Buck, Republican challenger to incumbent Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet. This ad had an almost Gahndi like message to it. “First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you win.” Buck reminds me of the happy conservatives of old, Reagan and Kemp style. I think | Read More »
*Update: Video of the full debate via the Right Scoop.* Tonight there were two miracles, 33 Chilean miners were successfully rescued and Christine O’Donnell trounced Chris Coons in a debate that was focused evenly on character and policy. As the Phoenix capsule rose from deep in the earth pulling one miner after another back to safety, O’Donnell also rose. Christine O’Donnell rose above the personal | Read More »
We now enter week two of The Hill’s series of district by district polls in pre-selected close races. Week one had some good results for Republicans and week two seems to say much of the same.
Later today I will find out what my Senate projection says are the four closest Senate races are, but for now, here are what I think those four currently are, and the latest polling on each: Illinois between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk, Nevada between Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry Reid, Washington between Democrat Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi, and West | Read More »
Carly Fiorina is still fighting hard against No Ma’am Boxer, and it’s good to see. I like this one, it’s short and it’s simple. It takes extra work to cut your typical online ad down to a 30 second (minus BCRA requirement) slam, and done well it matters:
Yes, yes, I can hear the groans from here already, but when I see two polls one day apart from each other that give diametrically opposite results in the Florida Governor’s race, I get worried. Republican Rick Scott had similarly erratic polling in his primary race which finished close with 3% final difference, so as his polling against Democrat Alex Sink is swingy, I worry | Read More »
Today, the Washington Post’s columnist Chris Cillizza makes a somewhat odd claim in his column “The Fix”: Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan’s (D) Senate campaign will announce $2.1 million raised in the third quarter, a campaign source tells The Fix, bringing it near parity with Rep. Roy Blunt’s (R) more than $2 million raised. Outside groups are spending heavily for Blunt, but this remains | Read More »
Good evening. We have a great deal of new polling that’s flooded in. Much of it is interesting too, so rather than pick and choose which polls I’ll cover in depth and which I will omit, instead I’ll give a quick look at all the good ones. We’ve got Senate races in Nevada, Connecticut, West Virginia, Ohio, New York, Missouri, and Delaware, plus races for | Read More »
I’ve given up on polling of individual House districts. Even if we see more than one poll of a given race, it’s usually all from the same pollster for the same client, a local newspaper or media alliance. These polls are erratic and without multiple sources to verify the figures, it’s hard to draw value from them. So even though I’ll stick with the wide | Read More »
The New York Times ran an article over the weekend that the House of Representatives is still not in the hands of the GOP. A Newsweek survey came out with an oddity of a generic ballot answer. Gallup has been jumping all over the place. Had I a show, I’d say “roll the tape.” Instead, you’ll have to settle for this. Here’s Charlie Cook’s review | Read More »
Scientific polling, based on the laws of probability and the compounding of likelihoods, is a mathematical activity. It’s all about the numbers. Without the numbers no poll has meaning. That’s why I highlight key facts like Margins of Error. Your typical internal poll release is very low on numbers and instead is a one page memo. Those releases can be based on sound polling practices, | Read More »
Back when Democrat Patty Murray got several good polls all at once, taking nearly double digit leads over Republican Dino Rossi in the Washington Senate race, I didn’t think it was a fundamental shift of public opinion. I called it a “good week,” and when her leads dropped, I said the race was returning to a tie. The new Rasmussen suggests I was right and | Read More »
Wisconsin is traditionally the most Progressive state in America. Progressives win there. Progressives have long won there. Progressives have won there even in years when they lost in much of America. Wisconsin even went in for the La Follette-founded Progressive Party, making it a highly successful third party within the state for about a decade. So I’m just at a loss for words as to | Read More »
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