A rainbow of polls in Nevada
Real Clear Politics showed 21 polls yesterday, plus we’re already at 5 today, so I’m grateful that some of them can be done in batches as with this bunch on the Nevada Senate race from Ipsos for Reuters, Rasmussen Reports, and POR for Fox News. If we color Republican advantages in red, leads for Democrats in blue, and ties in green, then this set is | Read More »
No progress for Jack Conway
The last time Public Policy Polling hit the Kentucky Senate race, Republican Randal Paul had squandered a huge lead. Democrat Jack Conway had pulled within 7 in the Rasmussen poll back at the end of June, and he was even tied in the PPP poll of Registered Voters. PPP (this time for Daily Kos) is polling Likely Voters now, and it’s not good news for | Read More »
Blumenthal’s closest shave yet
Quinnipiac has released this month’s poll for the Connecticut Senate race. Now we turn to those who say Rasmussen’s “House Effect” is repsonsible for Democrat Richard Blumenthal’s surprisingly weak leads against Republican Linda McMahon, because Quinnipiac has the race even closer than Rasmussen does.
Senate GOP Leadership Begins Setting The “Blame Conservatives” Narrative
Here’s the situation on the ground: if the GOP makes significant gains in the United States Senate, it will be in spite of the best efforts of the Senate Republicans. The Senate GOP stood with Charlie Crist and conservatives stood with Marco Rubio. The Senate GOP stood with Arlen Specter and conservatives stood with Pat Toomey. The Senate GOP stood with Trey Grayson and conservatives | Read More »
Boxer doing triage in California?
The word “triage” keeps coming up in talk of Democrat strategy lately, as the Democrats have to give up seats or even whole states for dead, leaving candidates to fend for themselves (presumably to fail). Barbara Boxer is continuing that trend. She has a new television ad out, which the Sacramento Bee points out is running in “the Sacramento, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San | Read More »
, Barbara Boxer
, Carly Fiorina
, Central Valley
, Sacramento Bee
Kaboom, part two: Lamontagne closing on Ayotte
If this isn’t the most exciting and competitive year for Republican primaries of all time, it has to be close. Ovide Lamontagne had faded far behind Kelly Ayotte in the New Hampshire Senate primary, but he’s been making a comeback. And now Public Policy Polling has him truly competitive. And to think he looked like spoiler bait once upon a time!
Kaboom, part one: O’Donnell over Castle
I said twice before that Christine O’Donnell’s big challenge in the Delaware Republican primary for Senate was that she needed to give the voters a reason to vote for her over the popular Mike Castle. For the whole primary season, she’d failed at that. Judging by the new PPP poll, she’s very recently had great success. She leads.
Nick Popaditch for Congress
Nick Popaditch is running for Congress. Previous occupation? Gunnery Sergeant, USMC. That patch he wears? Not preparing for Talk like a Pirate day, but rather a wound at Fallujah. His district? California’s 51st. Oh yes, that district. Inland California tends to be right-leaning, but Imperial County is one big exception. It’s a poor expanse of desert along the Mexican border stretching from Arizona to San | Read More »
And now the mirror image of North Carolina: Connecticut
Much as Richard Burr has underperformed in the view of many, so too is Democrat Richard Blumenthal having more trouble than expected to shake Republican Linda McMahon in the Connecticut Senate race. And while it is Rasmussen’s second consecutive single-digit gap that inspires this post, Quinnipiac also has it at 10, a long way from the D+41 of January.
Rare good news for Richard Burr
Normally when I’m skeptical of a poll it’s because it’s from a firm I don’t trust or because I don’t think its methodology makes it predictive of the actual election. But here we have Rasmussen Reports polling likely voters, and it’s by far the best poll I’ve seen for Republican Richard Burr in the North Carolina Senate race against Democrat Elaine Marshall.
The vaunted youth vote gets a cold dose of reality
This video, from the U.S. Senate campaign of Rep. Roy Blunt, who is running against MO Sec’y of State Robin Carnahan for Sen Kit Bond’s seat, caught my eye for several reasons: I went to the University of Missouri, which is strongly represented in the vid One of my kids is a college student, and the other one soon will be I was amused by | Read More »
A Word on the Vermont Senate Race
In May and June I highlighted Len Britton here on the from page. He is a local businessman who decided he had had enough of the entrenched incumbent Sen Patrick Leahy. He sold his own business in order to run for office*. I have met him and I like him. Granted, we don’t agree on every issue but I don’t agree with Leahy on any. | Read More »
Robin Carnahan is in real trouble
It’s already bad enough for Democrat Robin Carnahan that she hasn’t led a poll this year, but since primaries Republican Roy Blunt’s lead has been growing. In the likely voter polls he now leads by 6, 7, and now 10 in the latest Rasmussen.
Oh Gallup, what is wrong now?
Just a week ago, the big story from Gallup was that the Republicans had hit an all-time high lead in their poll. I covered it despite questioning the poll in the past. Everyone covered it. But now, suddenly, in the Gallup poll the race is even? How can that be, and what does it mean?
Sometimes a candidate is more than we expect
During the California Senate primary, my major criticisms of Carly Fiorina were that she had no public track record to back her on the issues, and that as a novice campaigner she was liable to make mistakes and lose a winnable race. During the race I didn’t quite give her the Tom Campbell treatment, but I gave Chuck DeVore all the support I could. During | Read More »
, Barack Obama
, Bill Brady
, Carly Fiorina
, Charlie Crist
, Chuck Devore
, Harry Reid
, Kendrick Meek
, Marco Rubio
, Mark Kirk
, Sharron Angle
, Tom Campbell