The ‘Democrats ready for 2010′ myth, exploded.
This New York Times article was probably not meant to give the game away, but many things are done these days that have had results that were not actually meant. It was probably not the author’s intent to subvert the obligatory optimism of the article with such a stark headline, either. Here’s the mistake, in a nutshell: while the title (“Democrats Plan Political Triage to | Read More »
SurveyUSA: Paul well ahead in Kentucky
SurveyUSA is no fly-by-night operation in polling. They’ve been around a while, they have a reputation, and a great many newspapers seem use them to poll local House races. So we can’t dismiss their continuing series of polls which look very good for Republicans, including this new Kentucky Senate poll for the Louisville Courier-Journal with Republican Randal Paul seeming to overwhelm Democrat Jack Conway.
Binnie fades but Ayotte still the clear leader
New Hampshire apparently tries to hard in Presidential years to have its primaries first, that it tires and has to have its Senate primaries last. So we’re still on primary watch for that state, and it looks like the Republican race has shifted again. Kelly Ayotte still leads the primary race to decide Democrat Paul Hodes’s opponent, but it appears the race for second is | Read More »
The last (probably) pre-Labor Day Cook rankings.
House. Senate. Governorships. If you don’t feel like clicking through the links, allow me to summarize: ten more House seats shifted in the GOP’s favor, and so did three Senate seats, and so did four Governor’s races. Only one of them (WY-GOV) is now off the actual board, but Cook is now projecting a net +6 to +8 GOP in the Governors’ races, a net | Read More »
Obama’s Iraq Speech: One Page Left Unturned
The Iraq War did not just fade away. It ended with a qualitative result: a spectacular victory for America in the face of long odds and complete vindication for the leaders who decided to stick it out instead of tuck tail and run when Democrats wanted to. Americans have largely forgotten about Iraq and have long since tired of hearing about it. That is in large part | Read More »
Extrapolating about the Delaware Senate primary
All the talk in your typical Senate analysis this year has assumed Republican Mike Castle will beat Democrat Chris Coons in the Delaware Senate race, but the fact is there’s still a GOP primary in progress. It’s forgivable to forget about that primary when polling of the primary is scarce, and PPP and Rasmussen hold Coons under 40, but let’s extrapolate from the PPP poll | Read More »
A tale of two polls: Colorado edition
It seems like most of the third party and independent spoilers this year are harming Democrats, but the Constitution Party’s Tom Tancredo is clearly hurting Republican Dan Maes in the Colorado Governor’s race, currently throwing the lead to Democrat John Hickenlooper. But two new polls on that race, from Magellan Strategies via Real Clear Politics and Rasmussen Reports are so different that I think we | Read More »
, Dan Maes
, John Hickenlooper
, Likely voters
, Magellan Strategies
, Rasmussen Reports
, Real Clear Politics
, Secret Sauce
, Tom Tancredo
Gallup: Generic ballot shows record Republican lead
I’ve had my ups and downs with Gallup (one might say the relationship is like the plot of the Gallup generic ballot itself!), but since they’ve been solidly running registered voter surveys again, the numbers have looked reasonable. But now they’re shocking us from the other direction by showing the Republicans having their largest ever lead in the generic ballot survey, showing a larger edge | Read More »
PPP: Miller, Murkowski both lead general
Public Policy Polling jumped out ahead to poll the Alaska Senate race even as Republican Lisa Murkowski tries to drag out her primary defeat at the hands of Joe Miller. PPP also checked up on what might happen if Murkowski somehow were able to dislodge the Libertarian nominee and take that party’s line on the ballot in November.
Two Republicans who are going to be Governors
There was a time when I thought about Nikki Haley’s campaign for governor every day. I’d scramble to find whatever polling I could get my hands on and read the news to try to explain any trends I might be seeing in the polls. Now, though, the South Carolina Governor’s race joins that of Republican Brian Sandoval’s in Nevada as non-competitive barring a major event | Read More »
, Brian Sandoval
, Las Vegas Review-Journal
, Mason Dixon Polling and Research
, nikki haley
, Rasmussen Reports
, Rory Reid
, South Carolina
, Vincent Sheheen
Another university poll, another set of problems
Busy day today, but I couldn’t let go without comment this new poll by Missouri State University for KY3 of the Missouri Senate race. Even if its findings weren’t entirely out of step with the rest of the polling world, the details of the poll carry a number of warnings that it’s not very accurate.
The new normal in Nevada: Reid and Angle tied
When Sharron Angle came out of the Republican primary in Nevada, oddly enough she was vulnerable. She got no unity bounce, instead taking a stream of attacks from Republicans nationwide. As a result, Harry Reid went on the air for the knockout. He didn’t get it. Even the new Mason Dixon/LVRJ poll has stabilized.
Rasmussen on California: Whitman and Boxer up
Rasmussen Reports has two new polls out: one on the race for Governor between Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman, and the other on the Senate race between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina. I don’t think the results they show are compatible. If one is right, I think the other is wrong.
, Barbara Boxer
, Carly Fiorina
, Jerry Brown
, Meg Whitman
, Rasmussen Reports
The Times’s Nate Silver Punishing Pollsters?
So 538 moved to the New York Times this morning and in the process made Marco Rubio the favorite finally. But seriously, my issue with Nate Silver today comes from the old site and specifically, his primary night commentary.
Simulating the major House ratings
As if the big Swingometer update wasn’t enough, I’m not done projecting the House today. Taking a cue from Patrick Ishmael I’m going to simulate today the elections based not just the latest seat-by-seat Cook Political Report ratings, but also on those of Congressional Quarterly’s, the Swing State Project’s, and Larry Sabato’s. Swingometer right now says R+52 from 2008. Ishmael right now also says R+52, | Read More »