Scott Walker would be bad news for Russ Feingold
From Unlikely Voter: Even in a wave election, some members of the losing party stand well in their own local elections. However one key trait of a wave election is that the losing party’s base is so discouraged that they fail to show up. So if this Rasmussen poll is right, I think the nomination of Scott Walker for Governor by Republicans would depress Democrats | Read More »
Missouri Senate race also opens up
From Unlikely Voter: In my estimation, Missouri Republicans have underperformed. The state doesn’t strike me as especially friendly to Democrats, and failed to swing for Obama, but Republicans there ought to do better than they have. I think Roy Blunt may be opening the kind of lead I expect in that state, after months of concern and close polling.
Ipsos: Portman pulling away from Fisher
From Unlikely Voter: I keep insisting the Ohio Senate race is going to be as drum tight as the Pennsylvania race, but polls like the Ipsos survey for Reuters may force me to re-think that. Especially when Rob Portman is showing a massive fundraising advantage, a 43-36 lead (MoE 4.3) over Lee Fisher among likely voters is serious news.
Battleground Senate Poll
From Unlikely Voter: In an open and credited aping of the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner House battleground polls, Public Opinion Strategies has conducted a massive Senate battleground poll. Politico has for us the summary and 150 pages of gory, numerical details. I’m going to see what sense I can make of it.
, new hampshire
, Public Opinion Strategies
PPP on the Colorado Primaries
From Unlikely Voter: Colorado voters have primaries to attend to today, but PPP has one last primary poll to give us something to look at before the real polls close.
, Andrew Romanoff
, Dan Maes
, jane norton
, John Hickenlooper
, ken buck
, Michael Bennet
, public policy polling
, scott mcinnis
Handel leads ahead of tomorrow’s runoff
From Unlikely Voter: Mason Dixon polled the Georgia Republican primary for Governor for the Georgia Newspaper Partnership, to see who might face Roy Barnes in November. With the runoff tomorrow, it’s looking good for Karen Handel as she leads Nathan Deal, despite the problems we’ve seen with primary polling this year.
I think Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s finished
From Unlikely Voter: At-Large House races may get a disproportionate amount of attention and polling, but it is what it is. So Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s polling troubles get the whole country’s attention, while a House incumbent in some other state might barely draw notice. And the South Dakota At-Large Representative is having serious problems. I just don’t see how she can win this.
, Dennis Daugaard
, John Thune
, Kristi Noem
, Rasmussen Reports
, Scott Heidepreim
, South Dakota
, stephanie herseth sandlin
Barbara Boxer still leading, still vulnerable
From Unlikely Voter: Carly Fiorina’s support continues in a band of 38-43 in the new Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race, while Barbara Boxer fails to reach 50. Boxer strikes me as the Democrats’ counterpart to Richard Burr: She really ought to be doing better, but she’s letting her opponent hang around.
The [epithet] and the redistricting knives.
If you do political blogging or reporting for a while, you end up hearing this question a lot: Why should I bother to come out and vote for the [insert epithet here meaning 'not as ideologically sound as I am']? This would be normally responded to with a polite “That’s a good question” and a variable-length stream of blather before the question is actually answered, | Read More »
Gallup retreats and I claim victory
From Unlikely Voter: Some may recall when I questioned the recent Gallup generic ballot results with sharp language. I caught them passing off a poll of adults, with the shift toward the Democrats that usually entails, as a poll of registered voters. It got national media attention. It’s clear to me the message was received, because now in the first release after my criticism, the | Read More »
Corbett steady as Toomey and Sestak joust
From Unlikely Voter: While the Pennsylvania Senate race has lived up to my expectations of volatility (Rasmussen has swing from Pat Toomey +8 to Joe Sestak +4 back to Toomey +6 most recently), the race for Governor has been pretty boring. No matter how many times this race gets polled, Republican Tom Corbett defies the recent partisan trend of Pennsylvania and consistently leads Democrat Dan | Read More »
The “other” race in Wisconsin
From Unlikely Voter: I’ve been staring slack-jawed so long at Russ Feingold’s surprising difficulties in Wisconsin, that I completely neglected to see that there’s a close race for Governor going on in that state, too. Wisconsin has long been the state most friendly to progressives in America. Could Republicans win the top two statewide races there, without the benefit of an anomaly like the Paul | Read More »
Daylight in the Florida Primaries
From Unlikely voter: Florida is a large and aggressively contested state. It, of all states, demands the clarity of traditional horserace polling. We have been denied that opportunity yet, though, because the Republicans still need a candidate for Governor and the Democrats still need a candidate for Senate. Quinnpiac’s poll suggests we may get answers soon, as late entering political novices Rick Scott and Jeff | Read More »
, Alex Sink
, Bill McCollum
, Bud Chiles
, Charlie Crist
, jeff greene
, Kendrick Meek
, Marco Rubio
, Quinnipiac University
, Rick Scott
Obama to Democrats: you may deny Me.
Hey, remember when the White House thought that they were going to be a help for vulnerable Democrats running on all those tough, unpopular, unprincipled, and job-killing votes that the White House insisted that said vulnerable Democrats make? Yeah, well, that’s gone by the wayside. The White House is now telling said Democrats that the President understands if members of his party have to run | Read More »
Planned Parenthood is coming, so let’s hold the line
They’re coming. Planned Parenthood is probably the most successful private vendor of death since Tesch und Stabenow m.b.H. made a killing selling Zyklon B to the Nazis. Planned Parenthood makes millions off of its abortion factories, and now the firm is on the political march for one of its dearest, but most vulnerable, allies in the Senate: Barbara Boxer. Will we do nothing, or will | Read More »