Cook: State Republican parties gave national GOP 9 seats for 2012.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  April 15th at 03:30 PM  | 

Cook Political Report has more or less formalized their 2012 redistricting scorecard; their final score is a gain of one Republican seat, based solely on redistricting. Cook notes that this total actually represents about 10 to 15 seats being fortified for the GOP, given that the majority of legislators who benefited from redistricting were Republicans. This will no doubt infuriate Democrats, but then: elections matter. | Read More »

Simulating the major House ratings

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  August 24th at 09:18 PM  | 

As if the big Swingometer update wasn’t enough, I’m not done projecting the House today. Taking a cue from Patrick Ishmael I’m going to simulate today the elections based not just the latest seat-by-seat Cook Political Report ratings, but also on those of Congressional Quarterly’s, the Swing State Project’s, and Larry Sabato’s. Swingometer right now says R+52 from 2008. Ishmael right now also says R+52, | Read More »

Rubber meeting the road: the 2010 Senate situation.

By: Moe Lane (Diary)  |  July 26th at 02:00 PM  | 

Charlie Cook is bearish on the thought of the GOP retaking the Senate this year – which, I should note, is a large step up from, say January 2009: back then they were talking about how the Democrats might increase their existing majority in 2010.  Charlie sets up the current situation as follows: Three open seats currently in the hands of Democrats seem pretty likely | Read More »

Cook updates on the House

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  July 23rd at 04:00 PM  | 

A simulation of the 2010 House races as charted by the Cook Political Report follows, but right here is all you need to know about who’s favored: Democrats currently have 66 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up. Republicans currently have 7 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up. Oh and on top of the 66, there are 2 seats held by Democrats which are | Read More »

Simulating the latest Cook House ratings

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  June 27th at 12:30 AM  | 

On Thursday the latest House ratings from the Cook Political Report came out. I think it’s high time we re-ran those numbers in a simulation of the national election, and see what the ratings suggest for November.

Pennsylvania update

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  May 12th at 03:37 PM  | 

We’re less than a week away from primary election day in Pennsylvania, so let’s take a look at the latest polling news from the House Special election to replace Jack Murtha, the Senate primary for Arlen Specter’s seat, and a surprisingly interesting House race.